The market points to Okovango and Native Ruler for the WSB 1900 and this is taking into account their odds for the race itself (22/10 and 3/1) and their Hollywoodbets Durban July odds.
Looking at Native Ruler for this excercise, if he wins the WSB 1900 he might become one of the favourites for the July.
Many will then say his opening odds of 125/1 for the July were false, but that ignores the fact that there is a big risk of him not qualifying for the July and that risk was built into the odds.
He is only merit rated 103, so he will either have to win on Saturday or otherwise win the Cup Trial or go close in the Gr 1 Daily News 2000, to qualify for the big race.
Therefore, the fact he has shortened into 40/1 for the July is a clue that the connections are confident of his ability.
The confidence is not surprising as the Gr 1 Splashout Cape Derby form is proving to be strong.
Native Ruler finished a 5,75 length fourth in the Derby and If Eight On Eighteen runs in the July, and he is not a certainty to, he will receive 4kg from him. So that will put him close on paper to the ruling July favourite.
If Cape Derby runner up Sail The Seas runs in the July, Native Ruler will be 4kg better off with him for a 4,25 length beating.
Native Ruler could therefore be one of the best representatives in the July of a top three-year-old crop who have ruled the roost in most of the big weight for age events this season.
His profile is very similar to the one Oriental Charm had last year and there are some other remarkable similarities.
They were both in the frame in the Cape Derby, both opened in the July at around the 125/1 mark, both are by Vercingetorix, both opened their Champions Season campaigns in the WSB 1900 and both run in the colours of Greg Bortz and will be ridden by JP van der Merwe.
July lightning could strike twice for Bortz and there is some irony in that statement because the horse that got Greg hooked on racing was the 1977 July winner Lighning Shot, so perhaps Native Ruler will be a third lightning strike!
However, if the July market points to confidence in Native Ruler, then the confidence in Okovango must be double, because despite being merit rated only 96 he is a 20/1 shot in the Hollywoodbets Durban July betting with the sponsor!
Tipping is a tough game and Turf Talk did the analysis of the race yesterday and went for the stablemate of Native Ruler and Okovango, the Justin Snaith-trained Underworld, and actually ruled out Native Ruler because of his wide draw coupled with the fact he is retuning from a layoff.
There is no going back but it has to be said that analysis was done before the betting patterns had been scruitinised and perhaps the selection would have otherwise been different.
All three should be big runners though and that is not forgetting the other Snaith runner, the reigning WSB 1900 champion, Future Swing.
Snaith could well dominate the result, but the runners who could throw the cat among the pigeons are the Mike Miller-trained Narina Trogon, who has a fine turn of foot like his mother Beach Beauty, the Frank Robinson pair Madison Valley and Shoot The Rapids, who both have class, Thunee Playa is an outsider who should run well from a good draw, while his Mano Panduram-trained stablemate Indian Ocean has a beautiful big stride and a good turn of foot so will be a big runner if able to overcome a wide draw because according to official merit ratings she is 3kg better off in the weights than any other runner.
