Al Muthana, who is now trained by Ricky Maingard, is pictured winning the Hollywoodbets Gold Challenge last year for Mike de Kock (Candiese Lenferna Photography).

The question has been raised of an upheaval to the Hollywoodbets Durban July weight structure if a July horse or two finishes close to either Charles Dickens or Al Muthana in Saturday’s Hollywoodbets Gold Challenge.

Both of those horses are merit rated 132 and they can both be viewed as consistent over this trip, the one never having finished further back than second in his entire career and the other being a twice Gr 1 weight for age (wfa) mile winner.

Piere Strydom might not even be able to make the weight on See It Again if an older July horse is given a hefty raise.

However, the one important point that was overlooked when raising these fears was a previous case where there was a wide margin between the highest merit rated horses and the rest of the field in a big Gr 1 wfa race.

It happened this year in the WSB Met.

Al Muthana, Jet Dark and Kommetdieding were merit rated 133, 130 and 129 respectively, while there was also Do It Again on 126 and Make It Snappy on 125.

However, the rest of the field were merit rated between 122 and 104.

This is proportionately similar to Saturday where Charles Dickens and Al Muthana are merit rated 132, Trip Of Fortune is merit rated 127 and the rest of the field are rated between 124 and 116.

Jet Dark and Kommetdieding duly finished first and second in the WSB Met.

They are ultra consistent horses and 2000m distance suited, so surely they should have been used as line horses.

If Kommet, for example had been used as the line horse, Pomp And Power would been raised to 127 or more, considering the bad luck he had in the race, and not 124, while Nexus would have been raised to around 126, not 122, and Cousin Casey would have also been raised to around 126 and not 122.

One can surmise the reason the handicapper did not use Kommetdieding or the winner Jet Dark as line horses was because the field finished on top of each other and they must have thus decided that the horses with superior ratings did not run to their best form.

So, Piere Strydom can probably sleep easier tonight in the knowledge that with consistency in mind the handicappers will only use Jet Dark or Al Muthana as line horses if they are ahead of the rest by a wide margin, which they should be according to their merit ratings.

At Hollywoodbets Greyville there is a good chance of the rest of the field getting close to this pair.

This is seen time and time again in races on this course due to its nature as a tight course with a short straight and the tendency in South African racing to go at a steady pace and then sprint for home.

But the handicappers are likely to take a lenient view and look for a line horse other than Charles Fortune or Al Muthana if the field gets close to them. This is clearly the way the tackled the WSB Met.

The one problem could be if a July entry comes out and wins the Gold Challenge.

This can be seen in the case of Al Muthana winning the L’Ormarins King’s Plate.

It would have been unfair for him as the winner of the race to be rated lower than those he beat. The 130-rated Jet Dark was duly used as the line horse, meaning Al Muthana was given an eight point raise to 133.

So Striker and other interested parties must simply hope for Charles Dickens and Al Muthana to finish ahead of the rest, or for at least one of them to win the race. The July weight structure should not be subject to a major upheaval with either of those eventualities.