Vermaak – Small Gr 1 Classic Fields Have A Logical Explanation

There has been a lot of talk about small fields in races like the Gr 1 Splashout Cape Derby and Daily News 2000 and an article in yesterday’s newsletter attempted to address the matter.

However, Justin Vermaak, the head of Racing Operations in the Cape and KZN, pointed out today (Wednesday) that the current size of the thoroughbred horse population coupled with the type of thoroughbred that is being bred makes the aforementioned phenomenon absolutely logical.

He said, “I think when people say the merit rating system is to blame it’s a very lazy excuse and people aren’t looking at facts. I’ll compare the Daily News with the Cape Derby and the L’Ormarins King’s Plate etc … the fact is a handful of years ago we were racing with, call it 6,000 horses, and now we are racing with call it 3,000 horses or whatever the official numbers are. Your horse population has halved and it’s pure mathematics that your good horses are going to halve as well. So the reason these fields are under pressure has got nothing to do with the handicapping system … the handicapping system has been there for well over two decades and these races didn’t have small fields ten to 12 years ago when the same merit rating system was in play. They’re simply having small fields now because the horse population is dropping and particularly over ground as we are also breeding less staying horses. So the middle distance and staying categories are feeling a double pinch, because they’re affected by a reduced horse population and by a reduced number of stayers being bred. There are only so many top rated horses around, and never mind penalties, if you’ve got 108 rated or 110 rated horses you wouldn’t want to generally run those against 125s and 127s because you basically don’t have a chance. Whether you run a place and go up should not be relevant in most decision making, I believe, because you would rather want to run in races where you’ve got a chance.”

He continued, “So, unfortunately we just have to accept our fate with these sorts of races that they’re never going to be big fields. I don’t understand the comparison that people come up with of strength of fields versus the field size? if you watch Enable and Frankel’s races over the big stretches in their careers in England, they’re beating three and four horses most of the time. I’m not saying we want it to go there, but just because they were beating small fields didn’t make them slow horses. At the end of the day there’s only so many 120s that can run in weight for age races and if that means a smaller field, then so be it. I think we need to move away from this obsession with big fields in these sorts of races, because all that means is there’s six or seven horses with no chance that get in the way of the better ones.”

He added, “So when you are dealing with small field issues in these sorts of races, it’s not necessarily the ratings and penalising of placed horses that is at play, although of course at this time of year one unfortunate issue is that our biggest race is a handicap, so everyone’s trying to bob and weave as much as they can all the time, which sort of places extra emphasis on this issue.”

He continued, “The other thing to note is that in a race like the Gr 3 London News, which was run over 1800m under weight for age plus penalties conditions and there was also an operator’s condition that the winner could not be raised more than eight points and placed horses could not be raised more than four points, there were also only seven runners. So you can’t blame the merit rating system for that race having only seven runners … the fact is it is a regional race over ground for good horses and we simply do not have as many good horses that go over ground anymore.”

Justin continued, “A very good example on the same day as the Daily News is the Lonsdale Stirrup Cup, which has only eight runners. It is a handicap with a benchmark of 52kg equals a 94 merit rating, so there are going to be no monstrous penalties unless a horse is way under sufferance. So nobody is dodging the handicapper in this field and once again the field is small because we do not have many stayers anymore, that is an unfortunate reality.”

He concluded, “You cannot blame handicappers for that, you cannot blame programmers for that, you cannot blame anybody for that, that is just testament to a reduced horse population, and less stayers being bred, the two factors which are pinching these top level races.”