S’Manga Khumalo takes advantage of the fresh air on Sparkling Water’s inside, created by the wheels of the starting stalls, to make a bee-line for the rail in the 2022 Hollywodbets Durban July, which his mount won by three lengths.(Picture: Gallop TV)
It is something that has never been mentioned before, but it eventually becomes noticeable after watching a number of Hollywoodbets Durban July replays – the best draw in the race must surely be number eleven.
Sparkling Water jumped from draw 12 when winning the first Hollywoodbets sponsored July in 2022 and S’Manga Khumalo was able to effectively enjoy the advantage that draw eleven provides because the eleven drawn Belgarion jumped slowly.
Draw eleven is the first barrier position in the second bank of stalls and instead of having draw ten right next to you on your right you have a few yards of fresh air created by the wheels of the stalls sticking out from underneath.
When the stalls are pushed together the wheels are the first points that touch and there is a significant gap between stall ten and eleven.
When Sparkling Water immediately cleared Belgarion inside of him in 2022, Khumalo was able to run at an angle for the front because he had yards of fresh air to his right and it was a winning move because he reached the rail within about 200m of the start and then took a sit until the straight, having allowed Puerto Manzano and Asterix to come around him and give him a tow.
Sparkling Water had plenty in reserve by the time of the straight and had one of the biggest margins of victory in July history, three lengths.
Had she jumped from a normal position she would have at least had to have a bit of luck to get an early split and luck to avoid the infamous jostling that the early stages of the Hollywoodbets Durban July is known for.
It was the same advantage Oriental Charm, a front-runner, enjoyed last year when jumping from the ideal draw of eleven.
Well it is at least an advantageous draw for a front-runner.
JP van der Merwe had yards of space to his right last year after jumping well and he did his mathematics well.
Garth Puller, on a walk around Greyville years ago discussing what jockeys are doing and thinking for every yard of the July, pointed out that going inward immediately from a wide draw is wasteful … mathematically the shortest route to the first bend is an ever so slight angle.
That is the path JP took.
He calculated it perfectly as he got to the bend just before the other front-runner Purple Pitcher and the horse was thus able to assume his favourite front-running role witout having expended any unnecessary energy.
Puerto Manzano, who finished third last, beaten over 17 lengths, when going to the front in 2022, was drawn eleven in 2023. He used that fresh air to his right to his advantage as the jockey held him up and could then rein him in while moving at an angle to the right, easier than holding a horse on a straight line and then slotting in to the right.
So it is probably an advantageus draw for a hold up horse too and Puerto did have a much improved July that year, finishing a 6,20 length eighth.
The one scenario where draw eleven might not be an advantage is a horse who needs cover in a handy position. However, a draw on the high side is difficult for such a horse in any circumstance and having some room in the early stages might make it a touch easier than normal, although such a horse would likely prefer to be drawn lower. The 2023 winner Winchester Mansion was such a horse and draw four suited him better than draw eleen would have.
Luck in running plays a part in the Hollywoodbets Durban July’s outcome, but a suitable draw does play a part in helping to avoid trouble.
A study of which draws are favourabe by percentage hasn’t been done but it is known that the widest draw of all has been successful eight times since 1917.
They were Kipling in 1940, who was drawn 22, St Pauls in 1946, who was drawn at position 20, Beau Art who overcame barrier position 17, Flaming Rock started from stall gate 20, Classic Flag in 1998 from stall gate 18, the great Dynasty broke from the extreme outside draw at 20 in 2003, in 2012 Pomodoro got up from draw 20 with Piere Strydom up and in 2016 Strydom repeated the feat on The Conglomerate from draw 18.
