Justin Snaith holds aloft the WSB Met trophy, which he has won for three years in succession. (Picture: Wayne Marks).
Justin Snaith is serious about making a bid for the South African record for number of wins in a season and as a consequence Turf Talk will be running a Snaith Barometer daily in their newsletter.
The barometer will predict how many wins he will end up on this season based on his current number of runners per calendar day rate for the season to date and his strike rate for the season to date.
Jonathan Snaith said about a record chase, “It is definitely on Justin’s radar. He’s not actively chasing the record right now, but if he’s in the hunt come May, then he’ll push hard.”
He is currently just about on track to have a crack at the 221 wins in a season record set by Paul Peter in the 2021/2022 season, although he would have to improve his win rate per day as the season enters its second half.
Paul Peter was on 104 wins by the close of play on February 4, 2022, whereas Justin Snaith is on 101 wins at the same stage this season, just three behind.
Jonathan revealed some interesting news related to the record chase.
“Justin will be opening a permanent yard in KZN this April now that Hollywoodbets and Greg Bortz are managing the Durban franchise. This will help in the record attempt.”
Justin has had 636 runs and 101 wins this season for a strike rate of 15.88%.
That means if he keeps up the same number of runners per day rate and same strike rate he will end the season on 196 wins.
That is a sizeable 25 wins short of the current record of 221, so he is going to have to probably increase both his number of runners per calendar day rate of 3.38 and his strike rate of 15.88%.
Snaith’s 208 wins in the 2020/2021 season has been his best ever return.
Paul Peter’s 2021/2022 record-breaking return broke the mark of 215 set by Sean Tarry in the 2016/2017 season.
Snaith is a racing certainty to win the championship this year.
It looks highly unlikely there will be any late charges like those Sean Tarry mounted in the last two seasons, which saw him coming within one feature race result on Gold Cup day of landing the championship in the 2022/2023 season and of creeping within about R1,5 million of Snaith before Gold Cup day last year.
Snaith is close to R10 million ahead at the halfway mark this season.
His stakes earnings of R16,638,019 before Tuesday’s racing at Fairview had started were well clear of Vaughan Marshall on R6,785,675, Alec Laird on R6,501,500, Alan Greeff on 6,285,963, Tony Peter on R5,907,875, Gavin Smith on R5,585,513 and Candice Bass-Robinson on R5,406,188.
Sean Tarry is enduring his worst season for some time and just sneaks into the top ten on R4,654,013, but he does usually pick up significantly from February onward as he generally does well in Jo’Burg’s main season and in the Champions Season. His Gr 1 record at Hollywoodbets Scottsville is of course unmatched.
Brett Crawford was in 8th place on R4,765,156, while many-times champion Mike de Kock was in ninth place on R4,682,575, but their stakes earnings will not incease as they are now in official partneships with their respective sons James and Matthew.
Snaith is also well clear in the number of wins column.
In second place, 20 behind him, is Alan Greeff on 81 wins.
Next best are Gavin Smith on 66, Tony Peter on 50 and Candice Bass-Robinson on 40.
