Oriental Charm makes a fine seasonal reappearance, winning the Gr 2 WSB Green Point Stakes under JP van der Merwe. (Picture: Wayne Marks)
Oriental Charm is the 33/10 favourite for the Met with Hollywoodbets, while See It Again is out at 11/2, and yet See It Again has the former well held on Hollywoodbets Durban July form.
That means Oriental Charm is a 33/10 shot to become only the eighth horse in history to win both the July and the Met.
Oriental Charm was 5kg better off than weight for age with the topweighted See It Again when winning the July and he only beat him by 1,80 lengths.
That is not to mention that he hampered See It Again as well and the latter would have otherwise finished considerably closer.
The Met is run on weight for age terms, so it means Oriental Charm will need to have improved by 4kg to 5kg since the July to reverse form with See It Again.
Oriental Charm’s rise to the top of the ante-post Met boards happened after his eyecatching win in the Gr 2 WSB Green Point Stakes on Saturday.
Ironically, that is the same race See It Again won last year and which saw him gaining the Met future winner tag. In both cases the win in the Green Point was over a trip that was viewed as short of the horse’s best. 2000m is probably the optimum trip for both See It Again and Oriental Charm.
See It Again is a horse who gets a lot of flak on social media from people who have little understanding of the game and the likely reason for this is his lack of a Graded win for just over a year since winning the Gr 2 Green Point Stakes.
At this time last year he was viewed as a penalty kick for the WSB Met and there is little reason why his credentials shouldn’t be viewed in the same light this year, although the final field should be stronger than it was last year.
See It Again had two below par runs in Cape Town after the Green Point, when second in the L’Ormarins King’s Plate and fourth in the Met, but he clearly wasn’t himself and neither were a lot of the horses in the stables around him at Milnerton.
His three subsequent Champions Season runs did not yield a victory, but he had excuses, especially in the Hollywoodbets Durban July when hampered late – it probably cost him third place.
Nothing went right for him in the Gr 1 HKJC Champions Cup over 1800m.
He was subsequently gelded and won well first time out before running a 2,50 length fifth in the Betway Summer Cup.
That run was no disgrace as he had to carry 60kg and gave 6kg to three of the horses who beat him and he gave 4,5kg to the runner up, the Dual Gr 1 winner Purple Pitcher, who beat him by 1,40 lengths.
It would be no surprise if punters abandoned him due to his long streak in Graded events without a win, but the Met might be the wrong race to do it in.
It is interesting to look at the comments of Brett Crawford on behalf of Oriental Charm and Piere Strydom on behalf of See It Again this week.
Brett said about Oriental Charm’s Green Point win, “I was quite impressed with him on Saturday. He was obviously stepping up to level weights for the first time and I thought it was a very good win. He can only but improve from that run, so it looks like he’s making good progression as he gets older.”
Strydom said about See It Again’s Summer Cup run, “He beat Royal Victory and they sort of ran to form. Always giving away weight when there are young horses coming through is not easy and is not ideal for him. Maybe he will race fresh in the King’s Plate and then go for the Met, where he will be well handicapped (he will be the highest rated horse under weight for age conditions).”
The first big question then is whether Oriental Charm has improved about 4kg to 5kg since the July, presuming See It Again has remained at the same level.
One of the most interesting formlines would be the one through Royal Aussie.
See It Again beat Royal Aussie by five lengths when winning the Green Point, whereas Oriental Charm only beat him by a length.
See It Again later beat Royal Aussie by 1,25 lengths in the L’Ormarins King’s Plate, although both trainer Michael Roberts and Strydom fetlt See It Again had run below par.
Oriental Charm did it from the front in the Green Point and created a good visual impression. He will have come on from the run too.
See It Again will have to bounce back to the sort of performance he produced in the Cape Derby and it will not be easy for him having travelled up to Johannesburg and then having to travel to Cape Town.
So the second big question is whether See It Again can produce his best in the Met.
The two big questions will be partly answered in the L’Ormarins King’s Plate on January 4, a race both horses will be running in.
There are of course other contenders in the Met.
The leading female horse in the Met betting is the Candice Bass-Robinson-trained Red Palace and interestingly she comes under the hammer at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth after racing tomorrow (Wednesday) in order to dissolve a partnership.
The Met 5/1 second favourite is Green With Envy, who is under a cloud after finishing tailed off last in Saturday’s WSB Green Point Stakes.
Trainer Dean Kannemeyer said, “He was coughing after the race, but pulled up sound. I had four runners on Saturday who coughed after the race and am busy now with lung washes and blood counts.”
If Green With Envy is able to bounce back he will become one of the horses to beat again in the Met considering his impressive win in last season’s Splashout Cape Derby, which he followed with good wins in the Gr 2 WSB Guineas and Gr 1 Daily News 2000.
Dave The King also has a cloud over his head folowing disappointing runs in his last two starts and the Met trip will stretch him too. He did not scope well after his latest below par run though, so could bounce back.
The Mike de Kock-trained three-year-old stablemates Heather’s Boy and Greaterix are both interesting Met entries. Heather’s Boy is unbeaten in three starts and as a big scopey sort should continue to improve and Greaterix is better than his last run in the Betway Dingaans when finding himself in front, which was unlikely to be ideal.
Snow Pilot has come into his own this season, but odds of 10/1 are too skinny for a horse who has stamina doubts.
Gimme A Prince has never been this far either and is a twice Gr 1 winner over sprint trips so is also a risky play at 16/1.
Red Palace is better value at 16/1 as she has class and will see out the trip.
Frances Ethel is also a fascinating runner at 25/1 as she is definitely better than her Summer Cup effort, although she will have a harder task at the weights in the Met.
Eight On Eighteen is a highly regarded three-year-old whose 20/1 odds include a doubt he will even line up.
Silver Sanctuary did not scope well after her last place finish in the Summer Cup anc could bounce back.
Rascallion can never be ignored as he proved last year when a narrow runner up.
Without Question was third last year and is capable, so his odds of 67/1 look to be fair value.
Meanwhile, Flag Man has been scratched from the Met and will be out for the season as he requires surgery to a fetlock.
