See It Again at last year’s Hollywoodbets Durban July gallops (Candiese Lenferna Photography)
The sponsor made See It Again the 7/2 ante-post favourite for the Hollywoodbets Durban July after the first entries, which not many would have been in a rush to take considering the race is still more than two months away, and he has duly drifted out to 4/1 already.
However, he the right choice to be favourite … presuming he is able to bounce back to his best after a highly disappointing WSB Met performance.
He ran off a 124 last year and this year must run off a 132, which is a 4kg difference.
However, he was 5,5kg worse off than weight for age with Winchester Mansion last year and this year, with the latter now merit rated 124, he will only be 4kg worse off than weight for age with him.
The horse that got closest to him last year from the rest of the field was Bless My Stars, whom he beat by 3,50 lengths and she is now overseas.
Furthermore, the older males are subject to a new condition which means the male older horses have to carry a minimum weight of 54kg and the females 53kg, which are both 1kg more than the minimum last year.
It is going to be tougher for a Winchester mansion type under-the-radar four-year-old to win the race this year.
Mucho Dinero, merit rated only 110, is one of those horses and he will probably drift out from his current 8/1 when everybody cottons on.
So, it might be up to the three-year-olds to give See It Again a go.
However, all of the above is said with the presumption See It Again can bounce back.
On the downside he is still an entire, but on the upside a number of raiding horses peformed below par in Cape Town, so there could have been some sort of underlying virus.
However, the ball is in the court of the like of three-year-olds Green With Envy (7/1), Purple Pitcher (16/1) and also Pure Predator (25/1), all of whom are progressive and have proved they will stay the trip. The new weight conditions will favour the three-year-olds too.
Considering they are all merit rated lower than See It Again was at this stage last year and the older hose bottom weight has increased by 1kg, it might even be argued that the three-year-olds should be at the top of the board.
However, the detractor is the questionable strength of the crop beyond two horses, Main Defender and Sandringham Summit, who have excelled up to a mile.
The latest detractor to the form was when the battling maiden Taxhaven finished a three length fifth in the Gr 1 SA Derby. It was admittedly run at a slow pace, but in his only subsequent run he was beaten more than seven lengths in a maiden over 2000m.
However, visual evidence is often better than form and Green With Envy, Purple Pitcher and Pure Predator have all caught the eye.
William Iron Arm (25/1) has an impressive stride and he should run with more comfort next time after surgery for a rig issue.
One older horse who can’t be ignored is Royal Victory.
He will be receiving 3,5kg from See It Again as things stand and he beat Winchester Mansion on weight for age terms by half-a-length in the Premier’s over 2000m.
So on last year’s July form and this year’s Premier’s form, coupled with the respective merit ratings of the trio, See It Again is probably just over a length clear of Winchester Mansion and Royal Victory.
However, there is not much in it and both Royal Victory and Winchester Mansion are coming off good runs, while See It Again will have a cloud hanging over his head until he proves he is still the same horse.
Shoemaker (40/1) is another older horse worth considering as he has always had talent and caught the eye last time. He is merit rated 110 which puts him 5kg under sufferance as things stand, but he is open to further improvement now that he has found the winning thread again.
Gimme A Nother is no value at 7/1, because she is likely not a certainty to line up.
Mid Winter Wind at 50/1 is interesting. He undoubtedly has a touch of class and although he is by an Equus Champion Sprinter in What A Winter, he is out of Lady In Black who was close up to Equus Horse Of The Year Oh Susanna in both the Gr 1 Cartier Paddock Stakes over 1800m and the Gr 1 Woolavington 2000. Staying the trip is not out of the question with him.
His stablemate Lucky Lad is also interesting at 33/1. He has not had a chance to prove whether he stays or not, but he has a lot of class. He is by Gimmethegreenlight out of a Caesour mare who won over 1600m and was a Gr 3 runner up over 1800m, so on pedigree he is not a forlorn hope to stay the July trip.
Below is the initial ante-post betting after the first entries:
