Note To Self has been raised to 118 after finishing second in the Gr 1 Lucky Fish Cape Derby. Wish List, who received a gender allowance of 2,5kg, was raised two points to 117 due to the ease of her win. Note To Self is now the joint-highest rated three-year-old in the land together with Jan Van Goyen (Picture: Wayne Marks)
NHA Press Release
Handicapping Ratings Update
Lucky Fish Cape Derby (Grade 1)
WISH LIST has been assigned a revised merit rating of 117 (up from 115) following her commanding victory in the Grade 1 Lucky Fish Cape Derby for three-year-olds over 2000m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth this past Saturday.
In assessing the event, the Handicappers noted that WISH LIST entered the feature as the best-weighted runner based on her pre-race merit rating. Despite the official winning margin of 0.75 lengths, the panel determined that she won with significantly greater ease than the numerical distance suggests, justifying the two-point increase.
To establish the level of the race, the Handicappers identified fourth-placed STAR MAJOR and fifth-placed HAPPY VERSE as the appropriate line horses, leaving their ratings unchanged at 114 and 113, respectively. This decision was supported by the fact that both runners confirmed their relativity, as established in the Grade 3 Politician Stakes. In that event, STAR MAJOR defeated HAPPY VERSE by the same margin that separated them on Saturday, providing a highly consistent and solid benchmark for the Grade 1 Lucky Fish Derby.
Additional Adjustments:
· NOTE TO SELF (Runner-up): Elevated from 96 to 118 after beating the 114 and 113-rated line horses by 2.45 and 2.65 lengths respectively at level weight terms.
· VIVA’S LIBERTE (3rd Place): Increased from 95 to 114 for finishing 0.2 lengths ahead of the 114-rated STAR MAJOR at level weight terms.
Merit Rating Reductions:
· PAY THE PALACE: Adjusted downwards from 105 to 104.
· BETTER MAN: Adjusted downwards from 105 to 104.
These changes will ensure that the runners of the Grade 1 Lucky Fish Derby meet on correct handicap terms in the future, while ensuring that the hierarchical pecking order is accurate and the race remains truly representative of a Grade 1 event.
Khaya Stables Diadem Stakes (Grade 2)
QUESTIONING has retained his official merit rating of 127 following his victory in the Grade 2 Khaya Stables Diadem Stakes over 1200m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth.
In assessing the event, the Handicappers were of the view that QUESTIONING – who entered the race as the best-weighted runner – firmly confirmed the 127 level he established in the Grade 1 L’Ormarins King’s Plate (WFA). Consequently, he was utilised as the benchmark to assess the field, resulting in his rating remaining unchanged.
Merit Rating Increases:
· O’TENIKWA (Runner-up): Adjusted from 118 to 121 after finishing 2.5 lengths behind the 127-rated winner at level weights.
· ALL THE RAGE: Lifted from 112 to 114.
· TEFLON MAN: Adjusted from 102 to 106 to ensure he is rated at least equal to King Regent, whom he defeated at level weights.
Merit Rating Reductions:
· CAFE CULTURE: Dropped from 120 to 118.
· LUCKY LAD: Reduced from 121 to 118.
· MEU CAPITANO: Decreased slightly from 112 to 111.
Splashout Prix Du Cap (Grade 3)
Following her victory in the Grade 3 SplashOut Prix du Cap over 1400m, PRINCESS OF GAUL has had her merit rating adjusted from 113 to 114.
In assessing the event, the Handicappers utilised the winner as the benchmark, aligning her performance with the 114 she achieved in her penultimate start (the Listed Windhoek Olympic Duel Stakes), but could not be adjusted to 114 on that occasion due to the race conditions that limited the increase for placed runners to a maximum of three points.
Merit Rating Increases:
· STORMWATCH (Runner-up): Elevated from 102 to 109.
· SWIATEK: Lifted from 100 to 104.
Merit Rating Reductions:
· ROCCAPINA: Dropped from 111 to 109.
· CALL ME SECRET: Reassessed from 105 to 102.
OTT Cape Fillies Classic (Listed)
BEACH VERSE has earned a revised merit rating of 97, up from 85, after capturing the OTT Cape Fillies Classic (Listed) over 1800m. In assessing the race, the Handicappers used QUEEN REGENT, the runner‑up, as the key horse and as such, her rating remained unchanged at 94.
The third‑place finisher, KUBU, also received a merit rating increase, rising from 81 to 92 after finishing 1.25 lengths behind the 94‑rated line horse at level weights.
The only reduction in this race was applied to UKUDUMA, who dropped from 93 to 91.
Play ‘N Go Jet Master Stakes (Listed)
JET FORCE, who had previously been adjusted 27 points for finishing 6th in the Grade 2 Green Point Stakes, had his merit rating increased to 117 from 115 following his victory in the Listed Play ‘N Go Jet Master Stakes over 1600m. In assessing the race, the Handicappers identified CAPTAIN WEST, the fifth-place finisher, as the most appropriate line horse. His rating remained unchanged at 102.
The following runners also received merit rating increases after this race:
· I SALUTE YOU increased from 107 to 112 for finishing 1.25 lengths in front of the 102-rated line horse while conceding 8 points or 4kg in weight, making his performance 10 points superior.
· ZEITZ was raised from 101 to 104.
· GALLIC DREAM was adjusted from 100 to 102.
GEM KING was the only runner to receive a reduction, dropping from 112 to 110.
Masks Of Fire Kenilworth Cup (Listed)
TENPENNY, who was rated to win, had his official merit rating increased from 103 to 105 after winning the Masks of Fire Kenilworth Cup (Listed) over 2500m. In assessing the race, the Handicappers identified LANDOFTHERISINGSUN, the runner-up, as the line horse. His rating remained unchanged at 99.
The specific race conditions did not permit merit rating increases for placed runners. As a result, no further adjustments were made. This condition has been adopted because of the belief that the fear of merit rating adjustments is the primary reason for small field sizes. However, available data suggests otherwise.
For example, the Grade 1 Hollywoodbets Cape Guineas and Grade 1 L’Ormarins King’s Plate, which had no ratings protection, attracted fields of 15 and 14 runners respectively, while the Grade 1 Lucky Fish Cape Derby drew 8 runners. By contrast, the Masks Of Fire Kenilworth Cup, which protected runners from upward adjustments, attracted only 4 runners. Similarly, the recent Pinnacle event on the Highveld, also run under rating protection, drew just 3 runners.
This raises an important question: are rating protections genuinely effective in resolving the issue of small field sizes, or are they instead rooted in the misguided belief that merit rating adjustments are the primary cause of reduced participation? The evidence points in another direction. From the examples above, no rational observer can conclude with certainty that merit rating increases alone are responsible for diminished fields. Apportioning blame to the Handicappers solely, has simply become the convenient, yet unfounded, narrative. A deeper delve into the issue needs to be done urgently.
Breeders Guineas (Listed)
ANOTHERDANCEFORME, yet another best-weighted runner to find the winner’s enclosure this weekend, has retained her official merit rating of 110 following her emphatic victory in the Listed Breeders Guineas for three-year-old fillies over 1600m at Fairview Racecourse on Friday.
In assessing the performance, the Handicappers unanimously agreed to utilise the third-place finisher, ROYAL CITY GIRL, as the line horse. Consequently, her rating remains unchanged at 93.
Despite several runners performing above their official merit ratings, no further adjustments could be made due to race conditions that preclude increases for placed runners.
Enquiries:
The Handicapping Team
