Dean Kannemeyer has won three Durban Julys, two of them with three-year-olds, and his three-year-old Green With Envy is this year’s favourite. (Candiese Lenferna Photography)
Gr 2 WSB Guineas winner Green With Envy has been raised to a merit rating of 123, which might have a significant impact on the Hollywoodbets Durban July weights depending on how the Gr 1 Daily News 2000 pans out.
The handicappers made Snow Pilot the line horse, so mathematically Green With Envy could have just been given a 121.
However, they had to take into account a number of mitigating factors with two of them being:
1) Green With Envy won extremely well despite the runner up Sandringham Summit getting first run on him and there being a tailwind. So they wanted to put him up to at least a mark equal to the 123-rated Sandringham Summit, which they have done.
2) the race was run about a second slower than the fillies race and there was a tailwind too, so it flattered some of the runners. Therefore they did not want them to be rated off Sandringham Summit which could, for example, have led to Snow Pilot being rated higher than the like of Purple Pitcher and some of the placed horses copping big raises.
As things stand Green With Envy will carry 53,5kg in the July, presumimg See It Again is still merit rated 132 at the time of the weights being published.
Trainer Dean Kannemeyer now might as well have a crack at the Gr 1 Daily News 2000 with the Khaya Stables homebred Gimmthegreenlight colt, because he is likely to be the highest rated runner in the race, presuming Sandringham Summit and Main Defender will not take part.
Where it could get interesting for the three-year-olds in the July is if Green With Envy is beaten by one or more horses in the Daily News 2000 and is then deemed to be the line horse.
Otherwise, it looks like the three-year-old males are going to go in to the big race well weighted, presuming of course See It Again stands his ground and remains on a 132.
As things stand the top three-year-old male in the July will carry just half-a-kilogram more than the three-year-old colt minimum of 53kg i.e. Green With Envy will carry 53,5kg.
This will make the three-year-old males better weighted than ever before in recent times, considering the minimum weight for four-year-old males in the July has been raised 1kg this year to 54kg.
Green With Envy might not be the top rated three-year-old in the July though as the unbeaten filly Gimme A Nother is rated 125.
However, even if Mike de Kock runs her in the Daily News 2000, her high rating will not have a serious impact on the ratings of the three-year-old males going forward, because she will receive a 2,5kg gender allowance in that race, so will effectively only be running off a 120.
It seems more likely she will go for the easier pickings of the Gr 1 Woolavington 2000 anyway.
The handicappers outline their reasons for the various merit rating changes in the below press release.
Handicapping Ratings Update
Independent On Saturday Drill Hall Stakes (Grade 2)
ROYAL AUSSIE remains unchanged on a rating of 124 after winning the Grade 2 Independent On Saturday Drill Hall Stakes over 1400m on the turf course at Hollywoodbets Greyville on Wednesday 8 May. The Handicappers were of the view that 3rd placed GLADATORIAN made for the most suitable line horse in this event and his rating remains unchanged on 120.
The only horse to receive a rating’s increase here was GIMMEANOTHERCHANCE who was adjusted to 115 from 111.
Only 1 horse received a drop in the ratings for this event, AL MUTHANA was dropped to 123 from 125.
World Sports Betting Guineas (Grade 2)
GREEN WITH ENVY was increased from 119 to 123 after he got-up to impressively win the Grade 2 WSB Guineas over 1600m at Hollywoodbets Greyville on Wednesday. His win was eye catching as the runner-up SANDRINGHAM SUMMIT was given every chance and in fact had first run on GREEN WITH ENVY who quickened up smartly.
3rd placed SNOW PILOT was used as the line horse here, leaving him unchanged on a rating of 120.
4th placed HLUHLUWE was increased from 111 to 117 for finishing 1.4 lengths or 3 points behind the 120 rated line horse at level weights. MID-WINTER WIND was increased to 116 from 114 for finishing a short head behind the now 117 rated HLUHLUWE at level weights. NAVAJO NATION, who was beaten only 2.45 lengths by the winner, was given a marginal increase from 103 to 110 despite achieving a higher performance figure. The Handicappers felt that NAVAJO NATION was suited to the slow run tempo of this race and may be flattered by his margin behind the winner and opted not to take his performance figure literally.
No horses from this race were given a rating’s drop.
World Sports Betting Fillies Guineas (Grade 2)
RASCOVA has had her rating raised from 115 to 119 after she won the Grade 2 WSB Fillies Guineas over 1600m at Hollywoodbets Greyville on Wednesday. The Handicappers felt that DOUBLE GRAND SLAM made for the most suitable line horse here and her rating remained unchanged on 118.
The Handicappers noted the time of this race was significantly faster than the World Sports Betting Guineas and the margins were more stretched out which is indicative of a faster run race. Accordingly, both 3rd placed CELTIC BEAUTY and 4th placed SOVEREIGN GRANT were adjusted to their actual performance figures of 104 and 103 respectively.
There were no other changes to ratings in this race.
Enquiries:
The Handicapping Team
