There has been a storm over Green With Envy being awarded a 127 merit rating after winning a “messy” Gr 1 Daily News 2000 in which he narrowly beat 92-rated Flag Man, but what does logic say about the handicappers’ analysis of the race? (Candiese Lenferna Photography)
There were three ways to merit rate the Gr 1 Daily News 2000, the low route, the medium route and the high route, and the handicappers opted for the medium route.
The appeal against the 127 merit rating given to Green With Envy appears to be based on the belief that he himself should have been the line horse and some voices said it was wrong that a horse who had never raced beyond 1600m before, i.e. Mid Winter Wind, was used as the line horse in a 2000m race.
Where this is contradictory is that they are asking for a horse who gained his merit rating over 1600m, and not 2000m, to be used as the line horse.
Green With Envy was awarded a 123 merit rating on his Gr 2 WSB Guineas win.
In fact retrospective handicapping of Green With Envy’s Gr 1 Spashout Cape Derby win over 2000m has him running to as high as 128 in that race.
He beat the 117 merit rated Beach Bomb by 2,75 lengths giving her 2,5kg, which equates to a 128 merit rated performance; he beat the now 118 rated Oriental Charm by 3,25 lengths in the Derby, which equates on paper to a 125 and he beat the now 116 rated Hluhluwe by 5,25 lengths, which equates to a 127 performance. That is not even taking into account how easily he won the Cape Derby.
Beach Bomb ‘s only previous middle distance run was in the Gr 1 weight for age Cartier Paddock Stakes over 1800m, which she won, beating the Equus Horse Of The Year Princess Calla. So she was a valid line horse, but the handicappers opted instead to take the lenient view and made Hluhluwe the line horse.
There was no outcry over using this horse as the Cape Derby line horse in his first race beyond a mile.
That only put Green With Envy on a 119, which was then raised to 123 after his WSB Guineas win.
So asking Green With Envy to be the line horse for the Daily News would have been problematic, because a) he achieved his 123 rating over 1600m and b) it was difficult to equate how high a rating he ran to in the Cape Derby over 2000m and Politician Stakes over 1800m, because he won so easily and retrospectively he ran way better than the 119 he was awarded.
The most obvious line horse for the Daily News 2000 was Pure Predator on a number of scores.
He had finished a two length fourth in the Gr 1 TAB SA Classic over 1800m and a 0,25 length second in the Gr 1 SA Derby over 2450m.
However, the true measure of how good the three-year-olds are is when they face older horses and when Pure Predator did such in the Gr 2 Colorado King Stakes over 2000m he won easily.
He beat Aragosta in that race by 4,05 lengths on weight for age terms.
When the handicapper raised Royal Victory to 125 for his Gr 1 Premier’s Champions Challenge run, they used Aragosta as the line horse … and he beat him by only 3,75 lengths on weight for age terms.
So the handicappers once again opted for the route of leniency after the Colorado King Stakes by using three-year-old Hotarubi as the line horse and giving Pure Predator only 119.
What further makes Pure Predator a valid line horse for the Daily News is he beat Hotarubi by 0,90 lengths in the Colorado King Stakes, he beat him by one length in the SA Classic and he beat him by 1,65 lengths in the Daily News.
That sort of consistency over middle distance trips points to both of those horses being valid line horses.
If they rated the race on Pure Predator as line horse, then Green With Envy gets a 129 or 130.
If Hotarubi is used as the line horse then Green With Envy gets 130.
So once again the handicappers opted for leniency by making Mid Winter The Wind the line horse. They used an analysis of his sectional times to form the opinion he had stayed the trip.
Furthermore, they explained that, by using Mid Winter Wind as the line horse, then Pure Predaor runs to the same rating of 116 that he achieved in the SA Classic.
So that saw Green With Envy escaping with a four point raise instead of a five, six or seven point raise.
Could they have used Flag Man or Barbaresco as the line horse?
That would have had Green With Envy running to either a 93 rating or a 114 rating.
It is unlikely his performance could have dipped that far even if the race was called “messy” with a muddling pace.
In fact, when looking at Green With Envy’s performance it has to be asked how many horses in South Africa would have been able to win the Daily News 2000 the way he did? He sat at the back and watched them and was still detached by about two lengths at the 700m mark. He then came way wide into the straight to get around the field and such is his natural acceleration that that manoeuvre did not stop him hitting the front by the 300m mark. Then for the first time in his career he was challenged over this trip. However, despite having made up all that ground already, and doing it running wide around them, he still managed to fend off Flag Man, who had come from a relatively handy position.
However, the connnections of Green With Envy would have obviously preferred the low route, which would have seen Green With Envy staying on 123.
But would that not have been doubly lenient?
Flag Man’s connections have reportedly also appealed against his merit rating of 126.
In 2021 Got THe Greenlight successfully appealed against the 128 merit rating he was given after winning the Gr 1 Premier’s Champions Challenge. This consituted a four point raise and the connections claimed he should not have been given any raise from his pre-race rating of 124.
Interestingly, the appeal board press release stated:
The Panel was of the opinion that the race should be rated using the winner at his pre-race rating of 124. By using this rating, this would also bring into line, three of the first six horses past the finish line and that they would also then have run to their pre-race ratings – those being GOT THE GREENLIGHT (124), CIRILLO (120) and DIVINE ODYSSEY (110).
Comparing this to the Green With Envy finish, if the latter is given a 130 rating after the Daily News, then:
Pure Predator would have needed to be beaten only 5,50 lengths to run to his pre-race merit rating of 119 and he was beaten 5,30 lengths;
Mid Winter Wind would have had to be beaten only seven 7 lengths to run to his pre-race rating of 116 and he was beaten 5,60 lengths;
Hluhluwe would have had to be beaten 6,50 lengths to run to his pre-race rating of 117 and he was beaten 6,80 lengths;
Hotarubi would have had to be beaten 7 lengths to run to his pre-race rating of 116 and he was beaten 6,95 lengths;;
William Iron Arm would have had to be beaten only 6,50 lengths to run his pre-race merit rating of 117 and he was beaten 7,10 lengths.
So that is no fewer than five horses who have run to their pre-race rating … if Green With Envy is given a 130.
So what chance is there of the appeal being upheld and his merit rating staying on 123?
One would think very little.
