Power Koepp has been tipped to win the fourth race. (Picture: HKJC)
Tim Carroll (At The Races)
Hong Kong expert Tim Carroll analyses all nine races from Happy Valley on Wednesday, revealing his three best bets
This Wednesday sees a competitive nine-race card from Happy Valley getting underway at 12.40pm SA Time. There are three Class 3’s on the card with race 9, The Chamomile Handicap, over 1 mile, offering prize money of more than £205,000.
Now onto this week’s selections.
Race 1: Class 5 Aster Handicap (11.40am) (5 furlongs)
2 SPICY SO SMART, who’ll be having just his third run this year, arrives having been well held his last three, but to be fair, there were excuses last time when he didn’t have the rub of the green, he now drops down to the bottom grade, and he holds a perfect two from two record at this level. The selection has recorded two wins, the most recent at the start of the campaign, with both of those achieved over 6 furlongs and although both his wins came from the front, I doubt he’ll be able to lead this lot, but horses with form over 6 furlongs tend to run over the minimum trip when there is a strong gallop on offer.
Dangers:
9 Patch Of Watch broke his duck over 6 furlongs on the dirt recently and hasn’t been outside of the top two his last three on that surface, but although he’s yet to prove himself on turf, he has shown improvement recently with Purton taking over from a claimer.
6 Modest Gentleman has a modest overall record, but he was a twice winner over course & trip last season, the most recent from the same mark he now finds himself on, and at the risk of overusing the word, this is a modest contest.
7 Ragnarr is yet to get on the board in eighteen local runs, but he’s run well enough in defeat at his last two over 6 furlongs, which have been his only two spins at this level and given he led both of those & was picked off late, the drop back to the minimum trip for just the second time in his career looks worth a try.
Race 2: Class 4 Bellflower Handicap (12.10pm) (1 mile 3 furlongs)
10 MANAGEMENT FOLKS will be the selection and he should be hard to hold out from toward the foot of the handicap, but a word of warning, he can be tardy out of the gates, as he was last time when runner-up at Sha Tin, and whilst it’s difficult to know what the outcome would have been had he jumped cleanly that day, he was only beaten 0.75 lengths having thrown away several lengths at the start. The David Hall 7yo hasn’t won for a while, but he’s on a workable mark having won from higher in the past and he does stay the trip strongly. They usually ride him cold, but there’s a few here that like to go forward and there’s several trying this trip for the first time which should see a solid gallop, which will hopefully ensure the selection is afforded every opportunity.
Dangers:
1 Midori Giant, who won a maiden over 1 mile on his fourth & final start in Australia, has been unplaced all five local spins, but he hasn’t been beaten far in a few of those, he takes a drop in grade and will find the waters a tad calmer than the Class 3’s he’s been contesting at Sha Tin since arriving in Hong Kong.
8 Hakka Radiance is zero from eighteen in Hong Kong, but he’s run with merit in defeat his only two goes over this trip, including at his penultimate start when runner-up and two spots in front of the selection, although that race did set up kindly for the pace runners.
7 Arthurs Kingdom returns from a short layoff after two well below par efforts, but he had been in good shape prior that winning three times between May and September and is worth including in any exotic type bets.
Race 3: Class 4 Thistle Handicap (12.40pm) (1 mile)
12 SMILING EMPEROR is a low mileage maiden that had shown very little in his first five starts but left that form behind when beaten a lip in picking up the silver over course & trip last time. There must be a slight concern about him running to that level again given it was a tad unexpected, however, on face value it was a solid performance in the context of this. The Jimmy Ting 3yo finished one spot in from of a rival that won in good style at his next start, and the winner was placed from a higher mark at his next run, so the form has some shape. The selection box seated in behind the two leaders last time and with only a moderate gallop on offer, he’s likely to look to do the same here.
Dangers:
8 Lucky Sam Gor is a four-start maiden and whilst he’s yet to hit the frame, he’s yet to finish further than 3 lengths from the winner, he has his first spin at Happy Valley, and they try first-time cheek-pieces.
6 Amazing Award broke his duck over course & trip in January and ran with merit in defeat last time when picking up the bronze having been a tad tight for room in the straight, but they like to ride him cold and ideally, he’d enjoy a stronger gallop than he’s likely to get here.
1 Sure Joyful is still 8lb above his peak winning mark and he does have a tricky draw, but he takes a drop in grade having recorded a win and two placed efforts from his last three goes in the grade, and he’s worth including in any exotic bets.
Race 4: Class 3 Violet (1.10pm) (6 furlongs)
4 POWER KOEPP has been around for a while and the now 7yo has recorded just the five wins from forty-four starts, but he won in good style over course & trip last time when having his first spin for Mark Newnham, a trainer that has a knack of getting a good tune out of tried runners that make their way to his yard. The selection will be moving up in grade under an 8lb penalty, but he carries 12lb less than last time and is still 11lb below his peak winning mark, and whilst he may not get back to that level again, he showed last time that he still a force to be reckoned with.
Dangers:
1 Wings of War, who was unplaced last time but wasn’t beaten far from a tough draw in a stronger race, will enjoy dropping back into Class 3 company and this is the best draw he’s had since winning over course & trip in January from a 4lb lower mark.
3 Ka Ying Victory, who will be having just his third start this year, has won four of his thirteen starts and whilst three of those have been over 5 furlongs, he’ll be having his first spin on the city track which he may enjoy and he’s now just 1lb above his last winning mark.
5 Denfield, who hasn’t been seen since January when back in ninth behind Wings of War, but he’s on 6lb better terms for a 2.5 length defeat that day, he’s perfectly drawn on the paint, and he’s shown in the past that he runs well fresh.
Race 5: Class 4 Ewo Challenge Trophy (Handicap) (1.40pm) (1 mile)
5 SOARING BRONCO has a modest overall record, but he has shown improvement lately, breaking his duck over this trip at Sha Tin two back, before an equally good performance in the defeat finishing runner-up over course & trip last time when having his first spin on the city track. Although he’s had the seventeen starts, he’s tracking in the right direction, and looks a slow burner that could have a more improvement forthcoming. The selection draws down in four and with two pace runners drawn underneath him and the other drawn high, he should end up in behind the leading group with the gun run.
Dangers:
3 Sunday’s Serenade shed his maiden status at start eleve when winning over course & trip last time and although that race set-up for the closers and he goes up 6lb in the handicap, it was his first spin at Happy Valley, and he could have more to offer.
6 Dragon’s Star hasn’t won since December 2023, but it’s a testament to his consistency that he’s just 1lb below his last winning mark, he arrives having finished runner-up over 9 furlongs last time, and he’s well drawn given they usually punch forward.
1 Mighty Commander goes from the top of the handicap, but he takes a drop in grade having won over course & trip from a 4lb lower mark when last seen at this level in January.
Race 6: Class 3 Violet Handicap (2.10pm) (6 furlongs)
6 CRIMSON FLASH, who won a maiden as an odds-on favourite his only start in Australia, has hit the board once in four local starts when runner-up over 5 furlongs at Sha Tin in January, but he has his first spin at Happy Valley having not been beaten far his last few in Class 3’s that looked stronger than this. The selection had a tough run last time, having to work to get across to sit outside the leader, but was only beaten 2.5 lengths, and the start prior that he was fourth in behind Fast Network, who then hacked up by 4 lengths at a level above this. The handicapper drops him 2lb here, first-time blinkers are applied, and Andrea Atzeni, who has ridden twelve winners at the last nine meetings, gets the call up.
Dangers:
3 Eason hasn’t won for nearly two years, but he is now 14lb below his last winning mark having be there abouts recently and he should have all the favours from the low draw.
5 Storming Dragon is a big lump of a horse (1226lbs) that has been unplaced his last three all over 7 furlongs, but he had won two of his previous four starts over this trip, the most recent which came from a 4lb lower mark at Sha Tin from the same draw he has here.
2 Nucleozor, who won all three starts in New Zealand, was unplaced at Sha Tin on his local debut, but that was in a stronger race than this, he’s entitled to be sharper for the run and Purton is a first time booking, but he’ll have to overcome the outside draw.
Race 7: Class 4 Dianthus Handicap (2.45pm) (6 furlongs)
10 LOVING VIBES is a ten-start maiden, but his form has taken an upswing recently and he lands here having been runner-up at his last three, all over this trip at Sha Tin. The Francis Lui 4yo has only been to Happy Valley twice, when unplaced both times at the back end of last year, but he was in no sort of form at the time, and if anything, he should enjoy the tighter layout as he’s no slouch. The selection has been left along after picking up the silver last time, and it’s worth noting that Purton is a first time booking.
Dangers:
1 Fatal Blow, who won over course & trip at just his second start in November, returns after a short layoff having seemingly not seen out the 7 furlongs last time and with genuine excuses the start prior having been planted wide, and he could bounce back from the low draw on his return having looked sharp when runner-up in a recent trial.
2 Know At Heart took six goes to break his maiden status in New Zealand, and he’s yet to hit the frame in five local spins which have all been at Sha Tin, but he takes a drop in grade having contested races than ran deeper than this and he should enjoy having something to aim at given he’s been running through the line without threatening in his races.
6 My Day My Way defied market expectations when picking up the silver over course & trip at just his third start last time and although unwanted in the market that day, and he does have a high draw to contend with, he is a low mileage type with plenty of scope.
Race 8: Class 4 Dianthus Handicap (3.15pm) (6 furlongs)
4 GREAT SPIRIT arrives with a 6lb penalty having recorded his second career win last time when taking out a similar contest over course & trip, which was the first time Andrea Atzeni had been on top (maintains the partnership). He only just got there that night, but it was just his second spin at Happy Valley having gone down short margin the start prior when slightly tight for room, and although this will require a career best, he’s still relatively lightly raced. On paper this should be run at a strong bat with the likes of Mega Bonus (6), Lucky Planet (5) & E Universe (9), all horses that like to punch forward, and with a solid gallop on offer, the race should set up kindly for the selection.
Dangers:
12 World Hero moves up in grade having broken his duck when making all over course & trip at start number ten last time and although he’s been turned over a few times at this level, this is a moderate affair, and he carries 13lb less than last time.
5 Lucky Planet goes up 8lb having won comfortably over course & trip last time and a repeat would see him go close despite the penalty, but both his wins have come from the front, and I’m not convinced he’ll be able to cross Mega Bonus who is drawn on his inside.
10 Noble Go has shown very little in four starts and as such is hard to recommend, but he does represent a leading yard and this will be the first time he’s drawn a low stall, and he might be one to consider for the exotics if you’re looking for a big price runner.
Race 9 Class 3 Chamomile Handicap (3.50pm) (1 mile)
4 EMBRACES was last seen at Happy Valley when winning over course & trip from an 18lb lower mark in December. He followed that up with a near last to first win at Sha Tin, and although turned over in three subsequent starts, he has run with merit in defeat on each occasion and in behind some types that look well above average. He was last seen when runner-up over this trip in a race that has already thrown up some form, whilst the winner is yet to be seen again, the fourth has since gone in, whilst the third was only just touched off as an odds-on favourite at his next start. The selection goes up 2lb for that, but Jerry Chau, who has been on top for both wins, is back on board claiming 2lbs, which sees him go from effectively the same mark.
Dangers:
3 Aestheticism recorded a deserved win over course & trip last time having not enjoyed the best of luck a couple of times this season, and although he goes up 7lb for that, he won in good style last time & once again should get an honest gallop to aim at.
7 Highland Rahy has taken some time to find his local feet but has been in great heart of late and arrives on a three-timer under a 6lb penalty having won his last two over course & trip and whilst he has more on his plate now that he moves up in grade, he carries 14lb less at this level and is likely to get an un contested lead.
1 Noble Pursuit goes from the top of the handicap, but he drops 2lbs which sees him just 4lb above his last win, which was over course & trip last September, and he should have all the favours somewhere in mid division from the low draw.
BETTING ON HONG KONG RACING
Punters can bet into the Hong Kong pools online through Tote.co.uk
WEDNESDAY’S PLACEPOT
Today’s Tote Place Pot will be races 4 through to 9. All up we will be playing 54 combinations (3x3x3x2x1x1), which will cost £5.40 for a 10p stake and so on. Good luck.
LEG 1- 1 WINGS OF WAR 3 KA YING VICTORY 4 POWER KOEPP
LEG 2- 3 SUNDAY’S SERANADE 5 SOARING BRONCO 6 DRAGON STAR
LEG 3- 3 EASON 5 STORMING DRAGON 6 CRIMSON FLASH
LEG 4- 1 FATAL BLOW 10 LOVING VIBES
LEG 5- 4 GREAT SPIRIT
LEG 6- 4 EMBRACES
TIM’S BEST BETS (scale 1-5 points)
12.10pm HAPPY VALLEY
2pts win MANAGEMENT FOLKS
3.15pm HAPPY VALLEY
3pts win GREAT SPIRIT
3.50pm HAPPY VALLEY
1pt win EMBRACES
