Grand Empire (red cap) and Trust fight out the Gr 1 SA Classic finish (JC Photos)
The biggest mystery in the Hollywoodbets Durban July pre-nominations betting is why the Highveld trio of Grand Empire, Trust and Splittheeights are not the favourites, because the formlines point to them as the horses to be with.
Usually working out collateral formlines will involve small margins, but in this case the facts are:
Splittheeights, Grand Empire and Trust beat Tin Pan Alley by 2,45 lengths, 1,85 and 1,55 lengths respectively at level weights in the Gauteng Guineas;
Tin Pan Alley then came out and won the Gr 1 wfa Wilgerbosdrift HF Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes over 1600m in dominating style, beating See It Again by 3,75 lengths;
On strict formlines that would put Splittheeights, Grand Empire and Trust about 5 to 6 lengths ahead of See It Again if they faced each other in a wfa race over 1600m.
And yet as things stand all of Splittheeights, Grand Empire and Trust will be getting 10kg from See It Again in the July, which is 8kg better than weight for age.
That puts them strictly on paper a ridiculous 15 to 16 lengths clear of See It Again on collateral formlines.
There are possible mitigating factors, such as See It Again is better over 2000m, he could have just been using the Horse Chestnut Stakes as a preparation run and Tin Pan Alley might have run below par in the Gauteng Guineas.
However, to even them up on those scores you would have to give See It Again five lengths for each factor.
The other question is whether Splittheeights, Grand Empire and Trust Stay.
Grand Empire followed the Guateng Guineas with victory in the Gr 1 SA Classic over 1800m, beating Trust by a head, and Splittheeights was a running on 1,85 length third from a wide draw.
That was over the tough Turffontein Standside 1800m, so the trio should not have a problem staying the relatively easy Hollywoodbets Greyville 2200m and they should have every chance of getting the trip on pedigree too.
The best of the Cape three-year-old males looks to be Note To Self.
On a line through Happy Verse, Note To Self is about on a par with Jan Van Goyen.
However, Jan Van Goyen was beaten 4,25 lengths in the SA Classic.
Even if it is taken into account that Jan Van Goyen needed the run or ran below par in the SA Classic, Grand Empire, Trust and Splittheeights will receive 2kg from Note To Self in the July as things stand.
There is also the dual Gr 1-winning Cape filly Wish List, but she is handicapped to finish on top of Note To Self.
So the question is why is See It Again the 6/1 favourite in the pre-nomination July betting with Hollywoodbets with Note To Self at 7/1 and Wish List at 25/2, when all of Grand Empire, Trust and Splittheeights are 17/1?
One formline that could put them closer together is that See It Again beat Jan Van Goyen by 8,85 lengths in the wfa L’Ormarin’s King’s Plate while Jan Van Goyen was beaten only 4,25 lengths in the SA Classic.
However, he was likely below par on both occasions and with Grand Empire, Trust and Splittheeights facing See It Again on 8kg better than weight for age in the July, as things stand, it still puts the latter trio clear even if that bit of collateral form is valid.
There is still a long way to go to the big race and merit ratings can change.
However, both Grand Empire and Trust were scratched from the Gr 1 wfa World Pool Premier’s Champions Challenge and Splittheeights was not entered and this gave the clue that their respective merit ratings of 111, 110 and 109 are likely to be protected until the iconic race, which carries a record stake of R10 million this season.
The trio are all set to carry 52kg as things stand.
Grand Empire’s regular rider Craig Zackey rides to 54,5kg, Trust’s regular rider Serino Moodley rides to 52,5kg and Splittheeights regular rider Raymond Danielson rides to 56kg.
Zackey is retained by Khaya Stables and attached to the Dean Kannemeyer yard too, so is unlikely to be able to ride Grand Empire and a lightweight replacememt will be needed.
Danielson will either have to shed some weight or a lightweight replacement will be required for Splittheeights.
Moodley should not have a problem riding 52kg for Trust.
