The Mark Newnham-trained Full Credit, with Lyle Hewitson atop, winning the Class 3 The Philip Chen Trophy over 1,200m on July 6. Dropping back to Class 3, he looks ready to bounce back after a plain run in Class 2 last time and he can give Hewitson a winner in Race 8 from a pole position draw .PHOTO: HKJC
Tim Carroll (At The Races)
Two of Tim’s three best bets won on Sunday, and he now has another trio, plus analysis, for Wednesday’s card at Happy Valley.
This Wednesday sees a competitive nine-race card from Happy Valley getting underway at 10.40am – live on Sky Sports Racing. The feature of the meeting is the finale (race 9), the Class 2 High Island Handicap over a mile, offering prize-money in excess £312,000.
Now onto this week’s selections.
Race 1: Class 5 Tai Lam Chung Handicap (10.40am) (6f)
3 COUNTRY DANCER is a ten-start maiden that has only hit the frame once, but he should be tough to beat in this spot with a similar performance to last time when on his seasonal return and dropping down to this level for the first time. He was a beaten favourite in fourth that night, but the run was much better than the bare result. He was carved up coming out of the stalls and found himself buried toward the back, then had trouble finding a run in the straight but ran through the line strongly once he finally got out. They will probably look to ride him cold from the high draw, but there’s a solid gallop on offer and with a clear round he should go close to breaking his duck.
Dangers:
1 Fairy Horse is a nine-start maiden taking a drop in grade and although he goes from the top of the handicap, he has a favourable draw, and he was runner-up over course and trip on his seasonal return in a race than ran deeper than this.
10 Rattan World has just the one win from 19 starts, but it was over this trip from a 3lb higher mark, he bounced back to form on the dirt last time when picking up the silver and should have a smooth commute from the inside draw.
11 Speedstar makes his seasonal return and whilst he didn’t manage to get on the board last season, he ran well enough in defeat a few times and he was only beaten two-lengths on his return last season and is kicks off the current campaign from a 12lb lower mark.
Race 2: Class 5 Tai Lam Chung Handicap (11.10am) (6f)
3 WINNING HEART will be a bit of a swing given he only has one win to his name in twenty-one local starts and has been unplaced all three spins during the current campaign. The Tony Cruz 5-year-old won over course and trip in March form a 4lb higher mark, and he won easily that night, so we know this is within his scope. He was having his first run at this level when unplaced last time and he was four-lengths in arrears of the winner, but he had an awful trip, planted widest of all with no cover the entire way. He drops a further 2lb in the handicap and from the low draw in 3, he’ll should be able the grab a spot behind the leaders with a far softer commute than last time.
Dangers:
8 Ho Ho Star disappointed last time when he ran a tad keen off a modest pace, but he had been runner-up his two previous starts and with a solid gallop on offer, he could bounce back.
5 Woodfire Champ showed very little during his first season but seems to have turned a corner having been beaten a narrow margin on his return before shedding his maiden status over course and trip last time, however, he may need some luck under the 5lb penalty as they have punched forward his last two and he draws high.
1 Joyful Life bombed when on the second line of the betting last time and although he met some trouble in the straight (offending rider banned), he still ran below par, but he had been runner-up his previous three starts and is another with claims in a tricky contest.
Race 3: Class 5 Tai Lam Chung Handicap (11.40am) (6f)
4 SAME TO YOU made a winning return when breaking his duck over course and trip in September and although on face value he has looked disappointing his last two, there were genuine excuses last time when he met all sorts of trouble. The selection is one of the few horses in Hong Kong that weighs in at under 1000lb, and I’ve a suspicion he doesn’t take to being hustled and bustled, which is exactly what has happened his last two. He draws down in 1 and whilst I doubt, he’ll lead, he should get the drop on the leaders, and a repeat performance of his first up win, which is the last time we saw him at Happy Valley, would see him go close.
Dangers:
1 Super Elite, who broke his duck over this trip at Sha Tin at the end of last season, has been placed three of his four starts during the current campaign and although he goes up a further 1lb, he has a favourable draw and should be in the mix again.
3 Island Golden has placed one of his two starts at this level and with Matthew Poons 2lb allowance he effectively runs from a 4lb lower mark than last time and should enjoy drop back from seven-furlongs.
2 Ace Talent has been placed two of his last three including last time out when beaten less than a length, and he’s likely to shoot forward to contest the lead, but he is more effective over the minimum trip.
Race 4: Class 4 Shek Pik Handicap (12.10pm) (1m)
1 GALVANIC disappointed on the dirt last time with no excuses, but he had been running in Class 3s on turf prior that and will find the waters calmer here. The selection was a soft winner over course and trip in February and with Ellis Wong claimer 7lb, he effectively goes from a slightly lower mark here. It’s worth noting that Ellis knows the horse, having won on him last season. The draw in 2 looks ideal as they should be able to grab the back of the likely leader (Gallant Crown) with the run of the race.
Dangers:
3 Sure Joyful, who has recorded two of his three wins over course and trip, goes up 6lb having won here last time and he looks a major player in a moderate affair even though this will require a career best.
2 Northern Beast won three of his last five starts at the back end of last season but has disappointed his first two spins of the current campaign, however, Purton takes the ride, and he does draw the rail.
11 Gallant Crown is a veteran that hasn’t won for a while, but he continues to descend the handicap and could run a cheeky race from the front.
Race 5: Class 4 American Club Challenge Cup (Handicap) (12.40pm) (6f)
4 STORMING DRAGON has been a tad frustrating with five placed efforts form six starts and being turned over when at the top of the market a couple of times. Having said that, he looks a winner in waiting after picking up the silver last time to a rival completing a three-timer, which was his first spin at Happy Valley. They purposely rode him from off the pace that night, but now that they draw down in 2, I wouldn’t be surprised if they look to take advantage of an inside gate and have him closer to what will be an honest gallop. Zac Purton maintains the faith, which is always a good sign, and he should go close to breaking his duck this time.
Dangers:
1 King Eccellente, who is a three-time course-and-trip winner, is 7lb above his peak winning mark from March, but he ran well in defeat when runner-up last time, albeit over four-lengths behind the winner, and connections have reapplied the blinkers.
11 Fun N Glory ran with merit in defeat on his return at Sha Tin when only beaten a length after a tough run planted wide and this will be his first spin at Happy Valley this year and although 0/4 on the city track, he will find this a bit more to his liking.
6 Beauty Light hasn’t shown a great deal in five trials, but he hasn’t been asked to, and with high-end connections, a market watch is advised for the son of Churchill on his debut.
Race 6: Class 4 Tai Tam Handicap (1.10pm) (6f)
11 TACTICAL COMMAND, who represent a yard that have been flying during the early part of the season, was beaten a lip by Gallant Valour last time when picking up late, and on 3lb better terms he’s a strong chance of turning the form around. The selection, who won twice over this trip last season and hasn’t been outside of the top four in his last seven starts, will most likely be snagged back from the high draw, but there’s a few that like to get on with it here, which hopefully will see him afforded every opportunity.
Dangers:
1 Gallant Valour goes up 5lb having won over course and trip last time when favourite and he looks a big player once again, be he now goes from the top of the handicap, conceding up to 16lb, having won in a blanket finish last time.
8 Yee Cheong Spirit is a promising thrice-raced maiden that has hit the board twice and should be winning soon enough, however, he’s been ridden from off the pace all three starts and he may need some luck from the inside draw.
4 Lyrical Motion, who will strip fitter for his first run back having led before tiring late to run fourth, is a speedy consistent type that will probably look to lead again, but he does have a high draw to contend with.
Race 7: Class 3 Shek Lei Pui Handicap (1.45pm) (1m 1f)
6 ROCKET SPADE has recorded just one win from twenty-six local starts, which is hardly inspiring, however as a Group 1 Derby winner from New Zealand he was pitched into the deep end and has been seen to better effect as he has descended the handicap. The selection broke his local duck over the mile on his seasonal return before a solid effort in defeat when picking up the bronze when last seen. He steps back up to nine-furlongs, which is a big plus as he hasn’t been seen of this trip since the middle last year, finishing runner-up on in back-to-back races from 12lb and 14lb higher marks.
Dangers:
10 Red Majesty may not win that often, but the old marvel rarely runs a bad race as he showed last time when runner-up and in front of a few that reoppose here, and with only a moderate gallop on offer, they may look to make all with the light weight.
4 Illuminous, who will be having his first spin at Happy Valley, won on his local debut in February and continues to run with merit in defeat, however he’s a stretch runner drawn the inside, and that could go either way.
1 Noble Pursuit won over the mile on his return and whilst he doesn’t get to the first two, he was momentarily held up when fourth over this trip last time, and with a claimer taking over, he is now effectively running from the same mark as his last win.
Race 8: Class 3 Plover Cover Handicap (2.15pm) (6f)
2 BRAVE STAR is in career best form having won his first two starts of the season and I think he’ll go close to completing a three-timer despite and 8lb penalty for his latest success. To be fair, this is a stronger looking race than the one he won, but that means he only carries 3lb more despite the penalty, and he won by a margin running away last time after having an awfully tough trip planted wide without cover all the way. He draws in 6 this time and should end up with a favorable trailing position, and with he’ll get plenty to aim at with a strong gallop on offer.
Dangers:
1 Full Credit, who will be having his first spin at Happy Valley, bombed on his seasonal return but as a winner of three of his six starts last season he is certainly better than that and as a pace runner he has the perfect draw in 1, but there are a few here that will want to get on with it.
10 Aurora Lady is a low-mileage 4-year-old that broke his duck in emphatic style when scooting up over course and trip at just his sixth start last time and whilst he has more on his plate at this level, he carries 9lb less and Purton sticks solid despite this being very much toward his minimum riding weight.
4 Chateauneuf recorded his second career win from just seven career starts when winning over course and trip last time on his first try at this level and he has scope for further improvement, but he goes up 8lb and has a tricky draw.
Race 9 Class 2 High Island Handicap (2.50pm) (1m)
6 CHILL CHIBI hasn’t been in the winner’s circle since November of last year, but he a classy individual who earlier in the year ran fourth in the Derby. The selection was last seen on dirt, which isn’t his bag, and he had put in an eye-catcher the start prior on his seasonal return when just over a length behind Woodfire Bro, who he now meets on 5lb better terms. I would imagine that connections will be looking to run him over slightly further as the season unfolds, but he’s a three-time winner at this trip that likes having something to aim at, whi9ch he should get here, and with all due respects, the first time booking of Purton looks a very good move.
Dangers:
7 Flamingo Trillion, who won three of his final four starts last season, was only beaten a lip behind Woodfire Bro on his return and on 3lb better terms he’d be a solid chance of turning that form around.
4 Capital Delight is a difficult one to get a handle on as he’s been in good form but on dirt over six-furlongs, however he has won on turf and has been running through the line strongly, thus he should be kept on the safe side despite a 7lb penalty for winning on dirt last time.
3 Woodfire Bro arrives on a three-timer with several here finishing in behind in these two wins, and although he only won by a nose last time and has been handed a 5lb penalty, he should strip fitter for his seasonal return.
WEDNESDAY’S PLACEPOT
Wednesday’s Tote placepot will be races 4 through to 9. All up we will be playing 81 combinations (3x1x3x3x3x1), which will cost £8.10 for a 10p stake and so on.
LEG 1 – 1 GALVANIC 2 NORTHERN BEAST 3 SURE JOYFUL
LEG 2 – 4 STORMING DRAGON
LEG 3 – 1 GALLANT VALOUR 8 YEE CHEONG SPIRIT 11 TACTICAL COMMAND
LEG 4 – 4 ILLUMINOUS 6 ROCKET SPADE 10 RED MAJESTY
LEG 5 – 1 FULL CREDIT 2 BRAVE STAR 10 AURORA LADY
LEG 6 – 6 CHILL CHIBI
TIM’S BEST BETS
10.40am HAPPY VALLEY
COUNTRY DANCER (NAP)
11.10am HAPPY VALLEY
WINNING HEART (EW)
12.40pm HAPPY VALLEY
STORMING DRAGON (NB)
