Vapour Trail will attempt to emulate his half-brother One Stripe by winning the Gr 1 Hollywoodbets Cape Guineas (Picture: Wayne Marks)
Vaughan Marshall is quietly confident of history repeating itself in the Hollywoodbets Cape Guineas on Saturday and if it does it will be a phenomenal seventh triumph in this breed-shaping race for the stalwart Milnerton trainer.
Last year he won the Hollywoodbets Cape Guineas with the One World colt One Stripe who was bred by Drakenstein Stud, owned by Rikesh Sewgoolam and ridden by Gavin Lerena.
On Saturday he will be running Vapour Trail, an Erik The Red half-brother to One Stripe, who was also bred by Drakenstein, is also owned by Rikesh Sewgoolam and will also be ridden by Gavin Lerena.
The other common denominator is both One World and Erik The Red are by the great Captain Al.
Vaughan trained Captain Al to win the Cape Guineas from draw 16 of 16 and also played a massive part in him becoming Champion Sire as he has done phenomenally well with his progeny.
In fact of Vaughan’s six Cape Guineas wins, two have been by Captain Al and one has been by Captain Al’s son One World.
Vaughan said about the Gr 3-winning colt Vapour Trail, “He’s done everything I have asked him to do. He’s very well, he looks a picture, he will be competitive.”
Vaughan was asked if he was as good as his half-brother One Stripe and replied, “He’s pretty good.”
Asked whether he gave him a chance of winning his reply was less conservative, “Absolutely.”
Vaughan elaborated, “He was very unlucky in the Langerman as a two-year-old, so we’ve always earmarked him as a decent horse.”
He said Vapour Trail had been one who had continually improved.
His Gr 3 win was in the Cape Classic over 1400m.
He displayed a fine turn of foot at the top of the straight on the Hollywoodbets Kenilworth Old Course on that occasion after finding a handy position from draw three. That took him to the front, but what was most noticeable was, after initially staying on resolutely and keeping the opposition at bay, he lengthened his stride after Richard Fourie had extracted a leg change out of him in the last 50m and he was actually doing his best work late.
That augurs well for the step up to 1600m.
His sire Erik The Red was a twice Gr 2-winning, once Gr 3-winning and twice Listed-winning sprinter who was retired prematurely after disappointing in the Gr 1 Cape Flying Championship as a three-year-old.
However, Vapour Trail’s dam Silver Stripe is by stamina influence Silvano out of a mare by stamina influence Badger Land and her three wins were from 2200m to 2450m and she won a Listed race over the latter distance.
On paper Vapour Trail will have difficulty confirming the form with Good For You from the Cape Classic, because he beat him by two lengths and will be 4kg worse off.
However, Vaughan said, “Vapour Trail had plenty in hand at the finish and he had not run in a while before that race either. He has come on a helluva lot from that run.”
Vapour Trail is drawn well in five and Vaughan concluded, “He will be able to race just off the pace and there will be a decent pace, rest assured.”
The one part of history from last year which is not repeating itself is the price. One Stripe having converted 63/100 odds and Vapour Trail at present is a 25/2 shot with the sponsor, but a closer look at his credentials makes him a good value proposition.
Vaughan runs Questioning, a 2,75 length winner of the Gr 3 Race Coast Matchem Stakes over 1400m in his last start, in the Gr 2 Ridgemont Green Point Stakes over 1600m.
This five-year-old gelding was beaten 2,70 lengths and 5,10 lengths in the Gr 2 Cape Punters Cup and the Gr 1 Hollywoodbets Cape Guineas respectively in the only two starts he has had which have been over as far as 1600m, so there is a bit of a stamina doubt. However, Vaughan said, “We always thought he would go a mile, but as a young three-year-old it was just beyond him and he’s got much stronger now, so I think he will handle it quite well. He’s doing very well, it is just unfortunate about the draw (11/14), but we will take our poison and ride him the same way we did in the Matchem and I think he will be alright.”
Questioning usually lies handy but came from last in the Matchem and produced a storming run to win easily, so perhaps that has opened up a whole new realm for him.
Vaughan runs Dumbledore and Lion Rampart in the Gr 2 Splashout Cape Merchants over 1200m and he said, “It’s going to be tough for them, it’s possibly the most competitive Merchants I’ve seen in Cape Town for many, many years, but they will run well, they won’t disgrace themselves.”
He runs Promettere in the Gr 3 Ownpay Peninsula Handicap over 1800m and said, “There’s not many races for him and we’re trying him over 1800m. The way he races i.e. he just switches off towards the back and produces a finish and if he does that I think he can run on into the money.”
