Green With Envy Connections Fight Back After MR Appeal Loss

The Merit Rating Appeal by connections of Green with Envy against the increase in his merit rating from 123 to 127 after the Daily News was dismissed on Monday 3rd June 2024, and the deposit forfeited.

Effectively, NHRA appointed adjudicators, Karel Miedema, Gabriel Soma and Aveen Sewpersad sided with the official assessor, Lennon Maharaj.

For many observers, that’s the end of the story. The official handicappers wielded the powers vested in them and have subsequently been vindicated by an Appeal Board. In doing so, the connections of Green With Envy have forcefully been put in their place and shown up as self- interested chancers.

That does not convey anything like the full picture, however. Several cogent, well researched arguments were advanced by Khaya Stables and Dean Kannemeyer Racing stating the case for Green with Envy to be kept at the same rating.

After all he was officially rated to win going into the Daily News and only just scrambled home from vastly improved Flag Man in a messy, false run affair.

International best practice under such circumstances is to err on the side of caution and use the winner as the line horse – not go back down the field and pluck soundly defeated horses for that purpose. Reason being is that by constantly choosing well-beaten line horses, over time the ratings become inflated, (a form of “bracket-creep”) which undermines the integrity and legitimacy of the figures.

The official handicapper has justified his decision (using his own set of ratings, of course) and was utterly contemptuous of any alternative viewpoints in his written response.

We don’t want to be seen as sore losers but a careful analysis of the arguments we advanced, none of which unfortunately had any impact on the panel who dealt with the query, deserve a public airing.

Consider the following – then you be the judge:

The line horse in the Daily News, Mid Winter Wind, unproven past 1400m had, in fact been raised in the KZN Guineas. Those Guineas ratings are in themselves questionable with Green with Envy coming off an excellent G1 Cape Derby score, being bumped up in the G2 Guineas, despite it being another false run race.

Well exposed three-year-old, Hluhluwe was another to be hiked up after the Guineas, together with Navajo Nation (beaten in a handicap at his previous start) who was increased by 7 points.

Questions must therefore be asked about the validity of those Guineas ratings. Now, to further compound the problem, a horse raised in suspect circumstances and a query over ten furlongs, Mid Winter Wind, gets used as the line horse in the Daily News.

This results in another jump for Green With Envy, together with a massive jump for Flag Man a mere two weeks after his previous rating was attained. As if this should not get the alarm bells ringing, well exposed Highveld horse, Barberesco, who suffered severe interference in a rough Daily News, is also subjected to a 13-point boost.

Hluhluwe virtually dislocated his jockey’s shoulder after pulling badly and drifting wide around the Greyville turn so a rational observer would think he ran below par, yet the official handicappers have pegged him as running close to his rating. Such is the knock- on effect of these questionable increases.

Likewise, Hotarubi was also hopelessly wide on the turn throughout, suggesting that he too could not deliver a personal best under those circumstances. Yet with these new OMR increases, he runs almost to his rating, in the official handicappers’ eyes, that is.

This begs the question – did the handicappers watch the flow of the race and interpret the result soundly and judiciously, given an uneven pace. Evidence was led showing that the Daily News was the fourth slowest in the last 17 running’s.

And a sophisticated interpretation of the fractional times showed finishing ratios typical of a race not run at anywhere close to a true pace throughout. A 100% ratio of a finishing segment relative to the final time would indicate an exactly evenly run race. Less than that, say 96%, would suggest tiring, decelerating horses feeling the effects of a strong early pace.

In the case of the 2000m Daily News, where the final sectionals were super- swift for the distance, the first three ran the 400m to finish segment in around 22.5 seconds, which computes to a sky-high 110% of the final time.

The handicappers stubbornly chose to ignore this factual evidence of a stop start, messy affair where many horses endured tough trips. Green with Envy returned bashed about and bruised, with Pure Predator injured in running. Regardless, the handicappers literally took an aggressive view to bump up the OMRs of the principals.

Opinions are the life blood of this fascinating brain game. Even experts with years of experience are constantly learning new things; must concede points when they get things wrong, and ideally should adopt a humble rather than dogmatic approach.

“Much is unknowable, and we are not as smart as we think,” can be a guiding maxim in horse racing where no individual, or official for that matter, is bigger than the game.

Our abiding concern, however, is that the official handicappers are so hell bent on preserving the sanctity of Grade 1’s in SA that they nearly always inflate ratings regardless of what took place in these races.

Using their own, often flawed, ratings to justify their own, often flawed ratings is a compounding exercise in folly. When confronted by an alternative take on things they tend to come out in uber- defensive mode with guns blazing.

On previous occasions, when engaging in polite discussion about the ratings of Khaya Stable’s horses we have been rudely rebuffed without a hint of the handicapper even considering a dissenting viewpoint.

Whilst graciously accepting the ruling, we feel strongly that our case, far from being a devious, misguided attempt to gain an unfair advantage as the official handicapper provocatively believes, has legitimate grounds.

Though we are now ready to move on, the decision to withhold the Merit Rating Appeal deposit rankles, and smacks of punitive over-reach.  The forfeit of the deposit makes us wonder if there is underlying vindictiveness towards Khaya Stables.

To mitigate against any possible bias and mere rubber-stamping of the official line at follow up enquiries, perhaps the local Appeal Panel should be scrapped and in future, appeals be heard by internationally respected handicappers.

Beyond the individual merits of this Green With Envy case, which was always going to lead to spirited debate given the implications for the forming of Durban July weights, this dispute raises much deeper and substantive concerns about the official process, and application of handicapping principles in South Africa.

Jehan Malherbe Dean Kannemeyer

Racing Manager Khaya Stables Trainer

Turf Talk Ed – The main flaw in the argument above imo is it fails to acknowledge that the handicapper (who is supposedly desperately keen to inflate Gr 1 ratings), not only used Hluhluwe as the line horse in the Cape Derby, despite him having never run over the trip before, they even went further than that,  when Green With Envy could have legitimately been given a 127 had Beach Bomb, who beat the Equus Horse Of The Year Princess Calla in the Gr 1 Cartier Paddock Stakes, been used as the line horse.

Here is the handicappers assessment of the Gr 1 Splashout Cape Derby, which was run at a crawl:

“The Handicappers opted to use HLUHLUWE to the net 99 performance which he achieved in the Grade 1 Cape Guineas rather than his gross rating of 111. This has the effect of keeping the race to a level of 119 and not 121 as would be the case if HLUHLUWE’s gross rating was used. The Handicappers noted that the race was slowly run in the early stages and felt that this lack of a true test may have resulted in a more compact finish which could have the effect of flattering some of the lower rated horses in the Derby. Accordingly, a slightly lower level seemed to be the prudent choice here.

BEACH BOMB was not deemed to make a suitable line horse for this race as she was weighted to win comfortably off her rating of 117 and using her would mean an 8-point increase to the current level of 119. BEACH BOMB remains unchanged on a rating of 117. The Handicappers also rejected the 87 rated ORIENTAL CHARM as a probable line horse as this will reduce the level of this Grade 1 race to nothing more than a Class 4 Handicap.”

So the handicappers did obviously ackowledge a slow run race in the Cape Derby.

The Green With Envy connections also question the ratings given in the WSB Guineas, but fail to  mention that if there was one horse who did not deserve to be leniently treated in the race, it was Green With Envy! He was coming off a layoff, had to come from last in a race run over a trip short of his best at a slow pace and with a tail wind, and he still beats one of the two best three-year-olds on the Highveld, who got first run on him, and also reverses his own Cape Guineas form with Snow Pilot!

Here is the handicappers assessment of that race, and note once again they acknowledge the slow pace in respect of some horses who were flattered by it, but surely Green With Envy should not have escaped unpunished?

GREEN WITH ENVY was increased from 119 to 123 after he got-up to impressively win the Grade 2 WSB Guineas over 1600m at Hollywoodbets Greyville on Wednesday.

His win was eye catching as the runner-up SANDRINGHAM SUMMIT was given every chance and in fact had first run on GREEN WITH ENVY who quickened up smartly.

Third-placed placed SNOW PILOT was used as the line horse here, leaving him unchanged on a rating of 120.

Fourth-placed HLUHLUWE was increased from 111 to 117 for finishing 1.4 lengths or 3 points behind the 120 rated line horse at level weights.  MID-WINTER WIND was increased to 116 from 114 for finishing a short head behind the now 117 rated HLUHLUWE at level weights. NAVAJO NATION, who was beaten only 2.45 lengths by the winner, was given a marginal increase from 103 to 110 despite achieving a higher performance figure. The Handicappers felt that NAVAJO NATION was suited to the slow run tempo of this race and may be flattered by his margin behind the winner and opted not to take his performance figure literally.

No horses from this race were given a rating drop.

The Green With Envy connections also state some incorrect statistics in their counter argument – the Daily News 2000 was in fact the second fastest of the last five renewals, according to the ARO website, although it was the 6th slowest (not 4th slowest) in the last 17 years.

In The Cape Derby, Green With Envy was not pressed, and beat Oriental Charm by 3,25 lengths. The latter has subsequently proved that run was no fluke and is rated 118. Given the ease of victory, rating Green With Envy nine points higher than Oriental Charm would not be an unrealistic stretch.

In the Daily News 2000 Green With Envy is at last stretched in a race over his right trip, with Flag Man running him all the way to the line.

The bare facts show that there are no fewer than four horses who ran to their pre-race rating if Green With Envy is given a 130, they being Pure Predator, Hotarubi, Hluhluwe and William Iron Arm … and yet they only gave Green With Envy a 127.

Green With Envy’s connections say, “The handicappers stubbornly chose to ignore this factual evidence of a stop start, messy affair where many horses endured tough trips.”

Although they have not officially said so, they indeed appear to have acknowledged the race being less than perfectly run by giving Green With Envy a three point lower mark than he probably should have been given.

If that is regarded as an incorrect statement, imagine if the connections of another July runner had appealed Green With Envy’s 127 rating as being too low … the panelists would have had more chance of uphelding that appeal given the bare facts of the result.

Perhaps the Green With Envy connections have a case in saying Mid Winter Wind was fallttered in the WSB Guineas, but his use as the line horse was surely for the sake of leniency.

No matter who is right or wrong in the case, Green With Envy is a seriously progressive horse with a quite phenomenal ability to turn it on in seemingly effortless fashion.

He also has a man with all the right credentials training him, with Dean having won the July three times before.

Interestingly, he has shortened in the Hollywoodbets Durban July betting sxince the Daily News 2000 and is now 22/10 with the sponsor.

He will be oout to emulate the great Dean Kannemeyer-trained Dynasty, as well as Big City Life and Legislate, as horses this century who have won all of the Cape Derby, the WSB (SA) Guineas, the Daily News 2000 and the July in the same season.