The bookmakers do not have much belief in Gladatorian, despite having been proven wrong in the Gr 2 IOS Drill Hall Stakes where they opened him at 20/1 in the ante-post betting.
The Drill Hall was one of the highest rated races of the season and he won it fair and square, although the conditions did favour him in that he did not have any penalty to carry, so received 1,5kg from the two topweights Royal Aussie and Cafe Culture.
He performed better than both of those two at the weights and carried the same weight as the horse he beat by a shorthead, See It Again.
He also performed better than Great Plains, whom he beat by 0,30 lengths, on weight for age terms and faces him on those terms again.
See It Again is 7/2 with the sponsor, while Great Plains is 6/1 and Gladatorian is 10/1.
The odds makers and analysts might be looking at last year’s Hollywoodbets Gold Challenge, in which Gadatorian only finished a 3,90 length sixth.
However, the pace was on the slow and inconsistent side last year, leading to a messy race, and now that everybody knows what Dave The King’s strengths are, it played completely into his hands in retrospect.
Dave The King was in second behind that slowish pace and it was race over once Muzi Yeni let him go just before entering the straight, with the rest of the field stacking up and Gladatorian being forced wide to get a run, having been inconvenienced early and ending up near the back.
This year’s race could pan out completely differently due chiefly to the presence of the strong, long-stiding front-runner Montien.
Montien is drawn wide in eleven out of twelve and will have plenty of room to get to the front.
Interestingly, one of the other known front-runners in the field, Purple Pitcher, is drawn widest of all.
Then there is Oriental Charm, a front-runner drawn in nine.
Oriental Charm led from start to finish when winning the Gr 2 WSB Green Point Stakes over this distance, but did not fare as well when Montien managed to get around him and ahead of him in the GR 1 L’Ormarins King’s Plate. Therefore, JP van der Merwe might want to make more of an effort to keep the latter out this time. Some might say they might not want to give Oriental Charm too hard a race before the Hollywoodbets Durban July, but on the other hand this horse is already being advertised for stud duties for the forthcoming breeding season and a Gr 1 wfa mile will look very good on his stallion CV.
Menwhile, Dave The King will not want to let the front-runners get too far ahead as he is clearly at his best when dominating from a long way out.
Analysts often make the mistake of counting the number of front-runners when judging how strong a pace will be, forgetting that front-runners are often horses that are able to relax when facing the breeze and can slow it up.
This is what Oriental Charm did to some extent in the Met and Montien was content to follow him and did not over race.
However, Purple Pitcher’s best hope over a trip on the sharp side would likely be to go out fast and keep on going, as he has been known to do.
The front-runners will also be wary of what happened last year and won’t want to serve it on a plate to Dave The King again and to do so they willl need to make him work for the lead.
So, all in all, it looks like there is going to be a decent pace and this will play into the hands of the like of Gladatorian, who has a good turn of foot and can build up a strong head of steam in the straight. Last year there were doubts he would see it out. Sean Veale has no such doubt this season as he has won easily on him over 1750m carrying 62kg, thus confirming the stamina present in his pedigree.
See It Again’s form was a bit patchy after gelding and his Drill Hall run confirmed he had benefitted from a layoff after the Cape season and he should now be completly over the gelding. He could be the one to beat, if it doesn’t play into Dave The King’s hands, as See It Again has an exceptional turn of foot and he also jumped well for a change in the Drill Hall, so from draw three he could take a sit behind the probable strong pace and then run on strongly.
Others who pack strong finishes are Cosmic Speed, Great Plains, Royal Aussie, Cafe Culture, William Robertson and Fire ‘N Flames, although the latter trio all have to prove they are effective over this trip at this level.
However, Gladatorian makes most appeal as the eachway value runner.
