Romantic Warrior can defend his Longines Hong Kong Cup title (Picture: HKJC)
Tim Carroll (At The Races)
It’s the big one on Sunday with the LONGINES Hong Kong International Races taking place at Sha Tin – get Tim’s expert tips here;
This Sunday sees the pinnacle of the Hong Kong racing calendar, the LONGINES Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin, featuring four Group 1’s with a staggering £10 million plus on offer in the Group 1’s alone.
Horses and Jockeys from all over the globe have flown in for one of the highlights of the International circuit and you’ll be able to catch all the action live on Sky Sports Racing.
Now onto this week’s selections:
Race 4 Group 1 Longines Hong Kong Vase (8.10am SA Time) (12 furlongs)
3 LUXEMBOURG was brave in defeat when runner-up to Romantic Warrior in last year’s Hong Kong Cup at this meeting and he subsequently won the Coronation Stakes at Epsom over this trip. Although unplaced in three starts since then he has kept some very good company and ran better than the bare results when five-lengths behind Rebels Romance in the Breeder’s Cup turf at his most recent start. With the only a moderate gallop on offer, he’s likely to punch forward, and he should get first run on a few of the market leaders.
Dangers:
13 Stellenbosch is a Japanese 3yo filly that gets 9lb from all her rivals. She won the 1000 Guineas before only going down half a length at her only try over this trip when runner-up in the Oaks behind a filly that has since finished a slashing fourth in the Japan Cup. She runs through the line strongly, and like many of the Japanese horses, she relishes quick going, however she is usually ridden cold & ideally would prefer a strong gallop, which is unlikely, but the booking of Joao Moreira, who has plenty of experience on this track, is a big plus.
1 Without A Fight completed the Caulfield & Melbourne Cup double last year but suffered a tendon injury and was off for twelve-months. He resumed with an excellent third to Via Sistina in the Champion Stakes at Flemington when doing his best work late & he should come on bundles for that, however, there’s not a lot of pace in the race, and he’s a late closing type that may be forced to play his hand early.
9 Continuous has been well held on his last few starts, however, those below par efforts have all been on rain affected surfaces and he is far better on quick going which he’ll get here. The Aidan O’Brien 4yo has only had four starts on going described as Good or better in the last sixteen months, winning three if those including last year’s St Leger, and although I don’t confess to knowing what connections intentions are, he’s tactically versatile, and they may look to dictate from the front.
Race 5 Group 1 Longines Hong Kong Sprint (8.50am SZA) (6 furlongs)
1 KA YING RISING will be at prohibitive odds on his first try at the very top level, but it’s impossible to oppose the David Hayes 4yo, who is one the most exciting young horses in the world. He arrives having broken a seventeen-year-old track record held by one of the great Hong Kong sprinters, Sacred Kingdom, and he did it with Zac Purton waving to the crowd. His trainer, whose trophies include a Japan Cup, Melbourne Cup and Cox Plate etc, rates him the best horse his put a bridle on at this stage of his career, and although there is no such thing as a certainty in racing, baring bad luck, it’s difficult to see how he gets beaten.
Dangers:
8 Toshin Macau was last seen when runner-up to Lugal in the Sprinter Stakes in Japan when doing his best work late along the inside. Prior to that he’d only had three runs over this trip on quick going since November of last year, winning all three with two unplaced efforts coming over seven-furlongs & the other on a yielding track. He’ll relish the firm conditions and the race maps for him to sit mid division with plenty of pace to aim at.
3 Lugal is a talented Japanese sprinter that was last seen when winning the Sprinter Stakes in September, which is the race Danon Smash was runner-up before coming here to win this race in 2020. He normal likes to grab a forward spot and whilst there’s plenty of pace on offer, he has won over seven-furlongs and is well equipped to absorb plenty of pressure.
7 Starlust arrives as a Breeders Cup Sprint winner and although the Europeans have a poor record in this race, away from the favourite, its looks wide open. The Ralph Beckett inmate is proven on quicker ground and whilst he won’t get the suicidal tempo he had at the Breeders, this will be run a strong gallop, and he should be picking up strongly late if running to form.
Race 7 Group 1 Longines Hong Kong Mile (10.00am SA Time)
6 GALAXY PATCH was a beaten favourite when two-lengths behind Voyage Bubble last time & whilst a tad disappointing, the race didn’t set up kindly with Vincent Ho having to make an early move around the outside. The Pierre Ng 5yo had won his previous three starts and if you take away his last performance, he probably goes off favourite here. He showed last year when a luckless runner-up in the Derby that he gets further than this, and with this likely to be run at a solid tempo, that could come into play. The selection will likely be ridden from the back from the outside draw, but he possesses a wonderful turn of foot, they have a long run to the first bend, and five of the last ten winners have drawn double figures, with Golden Sixty winning the race from the same stall last year.
Dangers:
1 Soul Rush ran fourth in this last year behind the Champion, Golden Sixty, and whilst the winner was in a league of his own that day, this fellow flew late from the back to finish fourth, which was as good a run as any of the beaten brigade. He arrives having won the Champions Mile in Japan, a race he was runner-up in last year, & he should get a solid gallop to aim at.
2 Voyage Bubble was runner-up to Golden Sixty in this last year and was last seen winning the Jockey Club Mile, which is a traditional trial for this. He’s a tough type that can sit handy and he finds plenty for pressure.
3 Antino, who is an Australian contender, is a highly consistent type that has won half of his twenty-two starts and has never finished outside of the top three in eight spins over this trip. The Tony Gollan 6yo hacked up in the Toorak Handicap when making an early last-to-first move two back, before an equally impressive performance when runner-up to a high-quality miler in the Champion Stakes at Flemington. He’s tactically versatile, he acts on any going & it’s worth noting that he holds a 9/13-win record on right-handed tracks.
Race 8 Group 1 Longines Hong Kong Cup (10.40am SA Time) (10 furlongs)
1 ROMANTIC WARRIOR, who is the defending champion from the last two years, will be all the rage and for good reason. The Danny Shum 6yo has not only conquered all before him in Hong Kong, he has also won at the top level in Japan and Australia. He only just held off Luxembourg in this last year, but it came seven-weeks after a taxing trip to Australia. He arrives this year having just the one run since June when winning the Jockey Club Cup, which is a traditional trial for this and although he won how you would expect him to that day, he looked in rude health. They like to have him handy to the speed, and with only a moderate gallop on offer, he should have a highly efficient trip.
Dangers:
4 Tastiera is a high quality 4yo that won the Japanese Derby last year and arrives on the back of an excellent effort to finish runner-up in the Tenno Shu behind Do Deuce, who at his next start won the Japan Cup, thus the form has plenty of shape. That was his first run since April, he’s entitled to improve and he can sit handy, which I think could be beneficial here.
9 Liberty Island was a superstar 3yo filly in Japan, winning all three legs of the Triple Crown before finishing runner-up to the Champion, Equinox, in the Japan Cup. However, she was found to have a problem after running third in the Sheema Classic earlier this year and has only recently returned with an unplaced effort when fading late in the Tenno Sho. However, she had a tough trip planted wide on the pace that day, and she’s entitled to come on plenty for the run.
11 Wingspan will be ridden by Wayne Lordan which would suggest she’s the second pick of the Aidan O’Brien fillies, but her effort in the Breeders Turf when she met early trouble before finishing fifth, would suggest she should be very competitive here. The cut back in trip is no issue, she gets 7lb from the older males, she’ll have no problems with the quicker going, and in a race offering only a moderate gallop they may look to go from the front, like when she was runner-up in the Fillies & Mares on Champions Day at Ascot.
Race 1: Class 4 Silent Witness Handicap (6.25am SA Time) (6 furlongs)
2 PATCH OF TIME arrives on a three-timer under a 7lb penalty which sees him toward the top of the handicap. However, I’ve always maintained that progressive types, which this low mileage 5yo is, should be able to carry weight to win at Class 4 level. Not only that, but the weights are also compressed with only 6lb between the top twelve. The selection was able to win despite a tough run last time, but he likes to sit handy, and this should set up kinder from the low draw in 5.
Dangers:
5 Brilliant Express is a thrice race maiden than ran with promise all three starts last season and makes his belated seasonal return having moved nicely when runner-up in a recent trial, and Bowman sticks solid.
11 Happy Park is a five-start maiden and although well held in second, he was runner-up to a rival that looks well above average last time & given he led that day, he’s well drawn on the inside.
13 Invincible Lucky is a four-start maiden that will be having his first start since April after a setback, but he ran with a bit of promise a couple of times last season, he takes a 3lb drop in the handicap and looked in good health when winning a recent trial.
Race 2: Class 4 Beauty Generation Handicap (6.55am SA Time) (7 furlongs)
6 MASTER OF PHOENIX went off at double figures on debut over six-furlongs last month but defied market expectations to grab the silver behind a rival in good form (Patch Of Time, who goes around in the opening race) when only beaten half-a-length. He was snagged back from a high draw that day and seemingly was going nowhere when they came into the straight, but he grabbed the bridle once he balanced up and ran through the line with plenty of purpose. He’s entitled to improve for the experience, and the step up to seven-furlongs looks ideal.
Dangers:
3 Legends Of St Paul has been runner-up over course & trip at both starts and was only beaten a nose last time by a rival he was conceding 8lbs, and there should be further improvement forthcoming.
5 Jubilant Winner was a few lengths behind Legends Of St Paul when unplaced as favourite last time, but it was a race that set-up for the pace runners and it would be no surprise if he were to bounce back with a first-time visor fitted.
2 Endeared, who won over course & trip last season from a slightly higher mark, wasn’t beaten far over course & trip last time despite not having the rub of the green and although he draws the outside, the booking of Ryan Moore is a big plus.
Race 3: Class 3 Lord Kanaloa Handicap (7.35am SA Time) (6 furlongs)
13 LIFELINE EXPRESS has just the one win from ten starts, but he’s a consistent type that picked up the bronze behind Young Superstar, who he meets on 5lb better terms, over course & trip last time in a race that contained seven of the runners that line up here. The selection was snagged back to last from a high draw that night and was a long way from the leader, who made all, but he picked up strongly from an impossible position on the bend, finishing best of all. He goes from near the foot of the handicap and whilst he’s not a pace runner, he should be able to sit handier from the lower draw.
Dangers;
1 Savvy Brilliant won back-to-back races over course & trip before a strong effort in defeat when runner-up last time having been slow out of the gates, but he does have to concede up to 18lbs to his rivals.
4 Divano was a well beaten second favourite behind Young Superstar, who he meets on 6lb better terms, last time, but he was badly strung up on the rail in the straight that night and with McDonald sticking solid, he’s more than capable of bouncing back with a clear round.
6 Halo Of Success, who won one of his three starts in Australia, makes his local debut from a mark of 65, and with blinkers fitted after a couple of sharp trials, a market watch is strongly advised.
Race 6: Class 3 Jim & Tonic Handicap (9.25am SA Time) (9 furlongs)
8 FAMILY JEWEL is a promising young stayer in the making that won back-to-back races over the mile before a slightly luckless run last time over ten-furlongs when runner-up to Bravehearts, who he meets on 3lb better terms. Given that race contained nine of the runners that line up here, it does look the strongest form line for the contest. The selection was given plenty to do from a high draw that day but worked home in good style after been held up at the 400m mark, and from a kinder draw, he should be able to turn the form around.
Dangers:
1 Bravehearts, who represents the flying Mark Newnham yard, won over ten-furlongs with plenty of these in behind last time, including the selection, and he looks the main threat despite a 6lb penalty.
4 Star Mac, who won his only start in Australia, is yet to break his local duck in fourteen goes, but he has hit the frame over the mile at his last two when doing his best work late and will enjoy stepping up to nine-furlongs for the first time this season.
11 Sunstrider, who was a twice winner in Australia, is yet to break through in seven local starts, but he was placed in behind the top two selections last time and he is now on better terms.
Race 9: Class 3 Maurice Handicap (11.20am SA Time) (7 furlongs)
6 CHARMING LEGEND, who won both his starts in Australia, kept his unbeaten record intact when winning over course & trip on his local debut last month. He has been handed a 7lb penalty for that, but he travelled strongly throughout that day and seeming won with a bit in the locker. He’s a big lump of a horse (1237lbs), and those types normally improve as they mature, and although Purton has jumped off to ride Johannes Brahms, James McDonald is a very handy substitute.
Dangers:
13 Markwin moves up in grade under an 8lb penalty having broken his duck over course & trip at just his third start last month & although he has more on his plate in this grade, he won with plenty of authority and carries 12lb less at this level.
3 Johannes Brahms, who was placed in a Windsor Castle and a Gimcrack for Aidan O’Brien, ran a blinder on his local debut to finish third as it was his first run in over a year, he’s sure to come on for the run and Purton has taken the ride having won on the selection last time.
7 Galaxy Witness hasn’t lived up to his early promise nor has he won for quite some time, but he continues to run consistent races in defeat, and he’s been dropped 5lb in the handicap for his belated seasonal return.
Race 10: Class 2 Highland Reel Handicap (12.00am SA Time) (7 furlongs)
10 PACKING HEMROD is a low mileage progressive 4yo that won his first three starts over six-furlongs before tasting defeat for the first time at his most recent spin when runner-up over course & trip last month with several of these in behind. He wasn’t a luckless loser, but it certainly didn’t help that his rider lost his whip 150m from the finish. The selection has been handed a 3lb penalty for that, but he still goes from toward the foot of the handicap. His last run is probably good enough to win this, so with scope for further improvement, he should be a tough nut to crack with Moreira, who can do light weights, picking up the ride.
Dangers:
12 Rubylot was tad disappointing when unplaced and a few spots behind the selection last time, but he wasn’t beaten far and although he’s tactically versatile, he tends to run his best races when he has a solid gallop to aim at, which he should get here.
4 Drombeg Manner has recorded four wins over course & trip and was only one spot behind the selection last time who he meets on 2lb better terms, but he’s a pace runner drawn high & although they have a good run before the first bend, he may be forced to spend a few pennies to cross over.
13 Allcash won ten of his thirteen starts including a couple of Group 2’s in his native Brazil and after a couple of impressive trials, a market watch is advised on his local debut.
Today’s Place Pot will be races 5 through to 10. All up we will be playing 27 combinations (1x1x3x3x3x3), which will cost £2.70 for a 10p stake and so on. Good luck.
LEG 1- 1 KA YING RISING
LEG 2- 8 FAMILY JEWEL
LEG 3- 1 SOUL RUSH 2 VOYAGE BUBBLE 6 GALAXY PATCH
LEG 4- 1 ROMANTIC WARRIOR
LEG 5- 3 JOHANNES BRAHMS 6 CHARMING LEGEND 13 MARKWIN
LEG 6- 4 DROMBER BANNER 10 PACKING HERMOD 12 RUBYLOT
TIM’S BEST BETS
4.25am SHA TIN
PATCH OF TIME (NAP)
7.25am SHA TIN
FAMILY JEWEL (NB)
8.00am SHA TIN
GALAXY PATCH (EW)
