Luke Ferraris has been tipped to win the 5th race on Setanta (Picture: HKJC)
Tim Carroll (At The Races)
Fresh from his five-timer on Sunday, Tim previews all nine races at Happy Valley this Wednesday, nominating three best bets.
This Wednesday sees a competitive nine-race card from Happy Valley getting underway at 1135am – live on Sky Sports Racing. The final two races on the card are both Class 3’s, with race 8, The Deauville Handicap, over 1 mile, offering prize money of more than £205,000.
Now onto this week’s selections:
Race 1: Class 5 Auteuil Handicap (11.35am) (1 mile)
11 COOL BLUE has a modest record having yet to win in twenty-five starts, but he’s up against rivals with similar profiles and he drops a further 2lb in the handicap to a career low mark of 19 having placed from up to a 30lb higher mark. The selection has had a horrendous run of high draws this season and ran well enough in defeat the last two times he was seen over course & trip at the back end of last season. He’s only had the one run since January, which was a spin on the dirt, and he should strip fitter here.
Dangers:
8 Harry’s Hero broke his duck over 7 furlongs at Sha Tin in December from just a 4lb lower mark and arrives having run well in defeat when runner-up over course & trip last time.
2 Podium has been unplaced his last two at Sha Tin and he does have a high draw to contend with, but he is normally ridden cold anyway and he was runner-up his last two goes over course & trip, the second of which was from a slightly higher mark.
6 Tattenham is another with a modest record, but he ran well enough over this trip n defeat on the dirt last time, he’s 14lb below his sole career win from last season and he should have a gun run from the low draw.
Race 2: Class 5 Maisons Laffite Handicap (12.05pm) (5 furlongs)
12 ACE TALENT arrives having picked up the bronze over course & trip behind Day Day Victory, who he meets on 5lb better terms, last time when having just his second run this year, and he’s entitled to strip fitter. The selection drew the very outside that night and had to burn early to get across to lead from the high draw, before being picked off in the shadows of the post. He only has the one win to his name, but it was over course & trip from a 13lb higher mark and if he runs to the same level as last time, now that he draws low, he should give this a decent shake.
Dangers:
3 Day Day Victory was strong through the line in winning over course & trip last time with several of these in behind and looks a main threat again from the low draw despite the 5lb penalty.
7 Modest Gentleman is hard to catch but he did win twice over course & trip last season, he’s now 2lb below his last winning mark and he has what looks a favourable draw with winning rider, Andrea Atzeni back on board for the first time this season.
4 Ragnarr, who won a maiden at his only start in Australia, is yet to break his local duck in nineteen goes, but he has shown improvement lately and was runner-up to Day Day Victory last time, who he meets on 4lb better terms, but he’ll probably have to be ridden cold again from the outside draw.
Race 3: Class 4 French Navy May Trophy (Handicap) (12.25pm) (1 mile 3 furlongs)
8 MANAGEMENT FOLKS, who was runner-up over 1 mile 2 furlongs at Sha Tin two back, goes up 6lb having won over course & trip last time when he had five of these in behind. No doubt he has a bit more on his plate with the penalty, but he does enjoy going over these sorts of TRIPS, with two of his three career wins coming over the mile-three. The selection is a late closing type and the leader from his last race, Rosewood Fleetwood, is in the line up again, but these types always tend to need a bit of nous from the saddle around the Valley, thus it’s a positive to see Karis Teetan, who gets on well with the selection, sticking solid.
Dangers:
10 Hakka Radiance, who won (known as Tempered Soul) a Novice at Chelmsford for George Boughey, is yet to break his local duck in fourteen starts but he has run with merit all three goes over this trip including when placed behind the selection last time, who he meets on 7lb better terms, and he’s likely to sit handy and have first run on a few of the market principles.
3 Serangoon was third behind the selection, who he meets on 7lb better terms, last time having been given plenty to do, and although he’s certainly not an on-pace runner, they may be able to ride him a tad closer from the lower draw, like when he won here February.
11 Perfect Pairing, who won a maiden at his sixth & final start in Australia, ran a local career best when runner-up to the selection last time & although he had failed to place in thirteen previous starts, there was some support for him in the market that night & he may have a bit more to come.
Race 4: Class 4 Chantilly Handicap (1.05pm) (6 furlongs)
2 GOKO WIN, who drops a further 2lb in the handicap, ran better than the bare result from a high draw in fifth last time when given plenty to do in a race that was pace dominated. The selection was having his first spin at this level that night and although he has just the one career win, it was from a 17lb higher mark, and he has been competitive in much better races than this. The selection draws down in 1 this time and although he’s no leader, he’ll be able to sit closer than last time and with Bowman maintaining the faith, he looks worth a play in an open contest.
Dangers:
9 Good Prospect in a nine-start maiden knocking on the door having been runner-up in three of his last four all over course & trip & the winner from his last race has subsequently franked the form when beaten a narrow margin at a level above this.
4 Majestic Delight is a twice race maiden that picked up the bronze over course & trip last time when two spots in front of the selection, and although well held by the winner that day, he has plenty of upside & is entitled to improve further.
5 Galvanic bombed here last time from a high draw but he had been placed his previous three, again mostly from high draws and he’s another that should be able to lay up closer to the pace now that he has a decent gate.
Race 5: Class 4 Saint Cloud Handicap (1.35pm) (1 mile)
1 SETANTA goes from the top of the handicap, which is never an easy task, but he takes a drop in grade having picked up the bronze over course & trip last time in a race that ran deeper than this. The selection hasn’t been seen at this level since last season but his last four runs in the grade produced two wins and a second and one unplaced effort, but that was on rain affected going. He’s on a mark of 60, but he has won from as high as 69, albeit that was some time ago. The Mark Newnham 7yo must give away up to 18lb to his rivals, but there’s only 8lbs separating the top eight entries, and he should have soft commute from thew low draw.
Dangers:
8 Jubilant Winner, who will be having his first spin at the city track, is a seven-start maiden with upside that has run with merit in defeat several times and he does give the impression he’ll enjoy stepping up to the mile for the first time, but he’ll need some luck from the outside draw.
10 Amazing Award broke his duck over course & trip in January and whilst he has failed to get his head back in front in four subsequent spins, he’s been there abouts, and a 1lb drop in the handicap sees him just 5lb above his winning mark.
3 Stormi, who was a thrice winner (known as Bergamasco) at Dundalk for Jack Davison, had been unplaced his first six Hong Kong starts but bounced back to form last time when picking up the bronze at just his second go over course & trip & he might be about to find his local groove.
Race 6: Class 4 France Galop Cup (Handicap) (2.05pm) (6 furlongs)
10 SUPER CHARIZZARD is a bit of a diamond or rock type, and he did bomb last time out, but he looks worth a play as he has a few things in his favour here. The Mark Newnham 4yo has recorded two wins over course & trip this season, the second of which was impressive enough for the handicapper to penalise him 8lb. However, he’s been unplaced in four subsequent starts, but he drops 2lb here, which sees him just 5lb above his most recent win, and with a lack of pace in the contest, they may elect to shoot from the front with the low draw.
Dangers:
8 Excellent Peers isn’t getting any younger and he hasn’t won for over two-years, but that was from a 27lb higher mark, and he drops a further 2lb here having placed from up to 8lb higher during the current campaign.
12 Telecom Power, who won two from three on the country circuit in Australia is yet to strike in seventeen local spins, but he has been runner-up over course & trip three times this season, including from this mark last time, and he should have all the favours from the low draw.
3 Loveisintheair is a thrice raced maiden from a leading yard that might have gone close to winning last time when third having been tight for room of the closing stages, but they’ve ridden him cold all three starts, he draws high and there’s no more than a moderate gallop on offer.
Race 7: Class 4 Saint Cloud Handicap (2.40pm) (1 mile)
6 ICONICAL is a low mileage 4yo that hadn’t shown anything of note his first six starts but left that form well & truly behind when winning over course & trip last time, which was his first try over the mile. The selection met with a bit of support in the market that night, suggesting a forward showing was expected. He does go up 7lb, but he travelled much the best in the run, making all to win by 1.5 lengths, and he still has scope, especially over this sort of trip. He draws high this time, but he shouldn’t have to spend too many pennies to get across and should end up either on the front or in a tracking position.
Dangers:
1 Ivy League, who was a twice winner for Aidan O’Brien in 2022, has just the two wins from thirty-four Hong Kong starts, but both those wins were over course & trip last season, and he’ll find this easier than recent assignments now that he drops into a Class 4 for the very first time.
11 Jumbo Fortune has his limitations has his one win from fifty-four local starts would indicate, but he has been a consistent type since joining the David Eustace yard this season having hit the frame seven times from higher marks during the current campaign.
2 Comet Splendido will be having his first start in just over three-months after a minor setback (spiked a fever), but he takes a drop in grade and did win over course & trip the last two times he was seen at this level, the second of which was from a slightly higher mark.
Race 8: Class 3 Deauville Handicap (3.15pm) (1 mile)
7 HIGHLAND RAHY, who won at Gowran Park on his final start for Fozzy Stack, took a while to find his local legs but has hit a purple patch recently, winning back-to-back races over course & trip before an even better effort in defeat last time when runner-up only beaten a nose behind a rival that came out and went in again at his next start. On that occasion he ended up sat outside the leader in a race where he was the only pace runner to finish in the first seven, and whilst the idiosyncrasies of horse racing would suggest he wasn’t a luckless loser as such, but if he was able to bag the rail, he would have won despite the strong gallop. He does go 2lb for that, but I reckon he should be able to get straight across to the fence, and whilst he doesn’t have to lead, there’s a fair chance thy will try to shoot from the front.
Dangers:
10 Lucky Touch hasn’t been outside the top four at his last nine starts, which includes a course & trip win in November & three silvers, and he was less than a-length behind the selection last time when doing his best work late & he is on 2lb better terms, but that race did set up for the closers.
1 M Unicorn can be forgiven an unplaced effort last time having been caught wide without cover for most of the race and with an 7lb claimer taking over, he is effectively only 1lb above his winning mark from the start prior when he won in good style.
11 Quantum Patch will be moving up in grade having been slightly unluckily as runner-up last time when held up a tad for a run at the top of the straight, and although he dives back into deeper waters, he carries 18lb less here and should have the drop on the leaders from the low draw.
Race 9 Class 3 Paris Longchamp Handicap (3.50pm) (6 furlongs)
7 LUCKY PLANET took fifteen goes to get on the board but has now won three of his last eight and arrives on a three timer having won at Sha Tin two back, before blitzing his rivals from the front over course & trip last time when winning by 4.5 lengths seemingly with a bit left in the locker. The selection will be moving up in grade under an 11lb penalty, this does represent a deeper contest than last time, and he is a pace runner in a race where there are a few that like to get on with it, but he’s in blinding form and with 10lb less to carry, he should give them something to catch again.
Dangers:
3 Beauty Infinity, who has recorded all three wins over course & trip in a nineteen-start career, is 6lb above his last win in March, but he draws low and with a strong gallop on offer he’s likely to position up in midfield with a strong two into the race and should be running through the line strongly over the concluding stages.
1 Superb Capitalist hasn’t hit the frame since September last year, but he takes a drop in grade and the last time he was seen at this level in April 2024, he hacked up by 4.5 lengths, however, he draws the outside & he’s a pace runner in a race offering a plenty of it.
6 Wolf Coming, who makes his local debut off a mark off 66, won two of his four starts, both over this trip, for Andrew Balding as a 2yo, and although unplaced in a recent trial, he wasn’t asked any questions, and a market watch is advised.
WEDNESDAY’S PLACEPOT
Today’s Tote Place Pot will be races 4 through to 9. All up we will be playing 108 combinations (3x3x3x2x1x3), which will cost £10.80 for a 10p stake and so on. Good luck.
LEG 1 – 2 GOKO WIN 4 MAJESTIC DELIGHT 9 GOOD PROSPECT
LEG 2 – 1 SETANTA
LEG 3 – 8 EXCELLENT PEERS 10 SUPER CHARIZZARD 12 TELECOM POWER
LEG 4 – 1 IVY LEAGUE 6 ICONICAL 11 JUMBO FORTUNE
LEG 5 – 7 HIGHLAND RAHY
LEG 6- 1 SUPERB CAPITALIST 3 BEAUTY INFINITY 7 LUCKY PLANET
TIM’S BEST BETS (scale 1-5 points)
1.35pm HAPPY VALLEY
2pts win SETANTA
2.05pm HAPPY VALLEY
1pt each-way SUPER CHARIZZARD
3.15pm HAPPY VALLEY
3pts win HIGHLAND RAHY
