Jonathan said, “It is like he never had a race.”
The handicappers have raised Eight On Eighteen two points to 129 and handed big raises to the third and fourth-placed runners Okavango and Native Ruler.
It appears they have used the filly Spumante Dolce as the line horse.
Eight On Eighteen beat the 117 rated runner up Spumante Dolce by 3,80 lengths and gave her 2,5kg.
That amounts to a 12,6 merit rated points better performance than the filly and they look to have rounded it down to 12 points and hence raised him by two points.
Spumante Dolce beat Okavango by 0,25 lengths when receiving 2,5kg so that amounts to a 4,5 point better performance than the filly.
That would take Okavango up to a 121.5, which would fit in with the 129.6 of Eight On Eighteen as he was beaten 4,05 lengths by the latter, which equals 8,1 points.
However, they have given Okavango a 120 rating and the reason might be due to the ease of Eight On Eighteen’s victory, meaning the placed horses were flattered.
Native Ruler finished just 0,30 lengths behind Okavango and has been given a 119 merit rating.
Okavango and Native Ruler were thus raised 15 and 16 points respectively from their previous marks of 105 and 103.
Parisian Walkway was beaten 8,75 lengths and was dropped two points to 119.
Makazole was beaten 13,55 lengths and remained on 98.
Spumante Dolce was number 13 on the first Hollywoodbets Durban July log and Okavango and Native Ruler’s proximity to her in the Daily News and their better performance than her at the weights might give them a chance of getting on to the log.
The contradiction comes in that both of them performed worse than the WSB 1900 winner Selukwe in the 1900 and the latter is number 14 on the log and only rated 111.
However, handicapping measures the performance of a particular race and the horses are rated accordingly regardless of their previous performances.
The Daily News 2000 time was exceptional, while the 1900 was a bit of a messy race that did not pan out well for the two three-year-olds.
They performed much better in the Daily News and are likely worth their high ratings.
The other anomaly is that although Eight On Eighteen beat Okavango by a comfortable four lengths in the Daily News, he is only going to carry 2,5 kg more than him in the July and will only carry 3kg more than Native Ruler.
Eight On Eighteen, due to the rule about three-year-olds not being able to carry more than 57kg, will be 2kg well in on handicap terms, presuming See It Again will be the topweight off his 127 merit rating.
Eight On Eighteen, as it stands, would have had to carry 59kg if the three-year-old limit did not exist.
Furthermore, carrying 57kg will mean he is 1kg better off than weight for age with See It Again.
The weights might convince the connections to run Eight On Eighteen in the July.
However, Justin Snaith’s words in the winner’s enclosure on Saturday made it clear that the fear of running such a good horse in the July is the roughness of the race … it can have a detrimental effect on a horse’s long term future.
Another July carrot would be Eight On Eighteen potentially becoming only the eighth horse to win both the July and the Met and he will become the first in history to complete that double as a three-year-old.
However, Jonathan Snaith countered this by saying, “I don’t think any three-year-old has won the Derby, Met, Daily News and Champions Cup in the same year.”
He added, “No decision has been made yet. His connections will evaluate how he comes out of the Daily News and make the right decision based on what is best for the horse while also considering his future breeding career.”
The Hollywoodbets Durban July weights as they stand at present are shown below, although it must be pointed out that these are not the official weights and are just a guideline:
Age Sex Horse July Weights HCP MR NettMR Points Under/Well in
