Picture: Giavellotto has been tipped to win the Dubai Sheema Classic.
Tim Carroll’s Dubai World Cup Night Preview (At The Races)
Saturday sees Dubai World Cup night at Meydan where Tim previews all the big races and gives his four
Godolphin Mile, 1 mile (Dirt) – 2.45pm
MUFASA is a quality recruit to the leading yard of Bhupar Seemar that makes his local debut having originally started off in Chile where he was a multiple winner. He then made his way to Northern America, winning three of his five starts including a Grade 3 at Gulfstream when last seen in December where he had the 2023 Breeders Cup winner, White Abarrio, in second.
It’s always difficult to know what to expect when they run first up in a new jurisdiction, but he goes well fresh having won two from three when back from a layoff (also won on debut), he brings a high level of form and he’s a pace runner, which is usually a good fit for the dirt track here at Meydan.
Al Quoz Sprint, 6 furlongs – 3.20pm
HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE will be the play, and I suspect regular readers of my Hong Kong piece on the website will think I’m being slightly bias, but hand on heart, I think this fellow has a tremendous chance of providing Hong Kong with back-to-back wins in the race. Although this is always a tough race to win, the selection is going to find it less challenging than chasing home the world’s leading sprinter, Ka Ying Rising, something he has done six times in his last seven starts, hitting the frame on four occasions.
The selection will be having his first trip away, but he’s with a shrewd yard and he seems completely straight forward at home. They go down the straight course for this race and it’s worth noting that the John Size inmate has only gone down the straight course at Sha Tin once in 27 starts, winning a Group 3 Handicap in January when giving away up to 20lbs to his rivals, which is the only race he’s contested since June last year that didn’t see him taking on Ka Ying Rising.
UAE Derby, 9.5 furlongs (Dirt) – 4pm
SHIN FOREVER will be trying to make it four winners in as many years for Japan and whilst he may not quiet be in the league of last year’s winner, Forever Young, I think he’ll be good enough. The Hideyuki Morio trained 3yo has won just one of his six starts in Japan, (all on turf) a maiden over the mile last August, but he justified the trip away when runner-up in the Saudi Derby (1 mile) last month when having his first spin on dirt. However, he has an American dirt pedigree, thus it was no surprise he acted so well on the new surface, and he has scope for further improvement on it.
This will be his first time over this trip, and he did show blinding speed before being picked off last time, but he was only collared late on by a rival that had won the UAE Guineas the start prior with the pair will clear of the rest. If they try similar tactics here, which looks likely, he’ll be helped by a track that suits speed horses, and it’s worth noting that the Meydan dirt track has a shorter straight (- 50m) than Saudi.
Golden Shaheen, 6 furlongs (Dirt) – 4.40pm
STRAIGHT NO CHASER with a rating of 117 and seven wins from eleven starts, is a talented sprinter, and not surprisingly, the American sprinters tend to do well in this race having been successful in five of nine running’s since the dirt replaced the tapeta surface in 2015 (no race 2020 due to Covid). The Daneil Blacker trained inmate was purposely held back as a younger horse and although now a 6yo, he’s low mileage and his recent efforts have been career highs.
The selection has only tasted defeat once in nearly two years, and that’s when he stumbled badly in the Run Happy at Belmont. His last three wins have seen him hack up in a Grade 2 at Santa Anita before taking out the Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Del Mar and then when a comfortable winner of the Riyadh Dirt Sprint at Saudi in February. He is a pace runner, but he doesn’t have to lead as he showed when he tracked the speed before taking out the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, something they may look to do here from the 9 draw.
Dubai Turf, 9 furlongs – 5.15pm
ROMANTIC WARRIOR, who has now won at the top level in four countries and in both hemispheres, has built a CV that would stack up against just about any horse that has ever travelled. The Danny Scum 7yo arrives after a rare defeat when having his first spin on dirt in the world’s richest race (Saudi Cup) last time, and whilst the ride from J Mac may have divided opinion, one thing that was universally agreed upon, we witnessed a race for the ages when the pride of Hong Kong and the brilliant Forever Young from Japan went to war all the way down the straight, a battle that didn’t deserve a loser.
Although he proved his credentials on dirt that night, he now returns to the turf, a surface he hasn’t tasted defeat on since October 2023 in Australia when first-up and underdone. His last spin on turf was here in January when winning the Jebel Hatta over this trip in track record time by a margin running away with every single rival that lines up here in behind, and provided he runs to form, which he seemingly does every time he steps out these days, it’s very difficult to see any other outcome.
Sheema Classic, 1m4f furlongs – 5.50pm
GIAVELLOTTO could represent some value in what looks a solid renewal of the race. The Marco Botti 5yo, who enjoys quick going, was formerly tried as a stayer, and although luckless in the St Leger as a 3yo, he always seemed to struggle to get 2 miles.
Many would say he had a breakout performance over this trip when winning the Hong Kong Vase last December despite meeting trouble at the top of the straight, but it’s worth noting that he hacked up in the Prince of Wales Stakes at Newmarket in July, which has been his only other start over the trip. This is a deeper contest than both of those, but he’s by Master Craftsman, and they can often be slow burners that come on with age, and I think he could have more to offer after what was a career best last time.
Dubai World Cup, 1 mile 2 furlongs (Dirt) – 6.30pm
FOREVER YOUNG, who won the Derby on this card last year, has gone on to be arguably the best dirt horse in the world. The selection has won eight of his ten starts but surely would have won last year’s Kentucky Derby if not for fly-jumping at the start, with his only other defeat being a game third in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. He arrives after a gutsy win in the Saudi Cup when he and Romantic Warrior drew clear to fight out one of the all-time great battles, prevailing by a neck on the line.
Along with his sparring partner from Saudi, he’ll be the shortest price runner on the card, but that’s understandable as this is a softer target than taking on Romantic Warrior or his Breeders Cup assignment when narrowly denied. He drew the outside in Saudi and had to do some work to grab a spot, but the draw in 5 this time couldn’t be any better, and with pace drawn either side he should be able to layup behind the speed with the gun run.
TIM’S BEST BETS (scale 1-5 points)
3.20pm MEYDAN
3pts win HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE
5.15pm MEYDAN
5pts win ROMANTIC WARRIOR
5.50pm MEYDAN
1pt each-way GIAVELLOTTO
6.30pm MEYDAN
4pts win FOREVER YOUNG
