Black Egret has been tipped to win the seventh (JC Photos)
The Vaal straight course meeting is set up to favour low draws with the outside rail 10m in with a 10m spur at the 600m mark, which will make it tricky because a lot of the fancied runners have high draws.
The predicted draw bias does not do the favourite for the first race, Palace Dancer, any favours as she is drawn ten out of eleven. However, she should be too good in this workriders maiden over 1200m and having Phenisile Mongqawa aboard helps too. On debut over 1200m she showed a nice big action and was finishing strongly to be beaten just a length into second place by the odds-on favourite Francilien. The form has not worked out too well but she did create a good visual impression and does not have a lot to beat. Her Tony Peter-trained stablemate Bellissivar has run a lot of places but appears to be better at 1000m. The rest all look to be either not good enough or held on form.
Tony Peter could claim a quick double in the second race over 1200m. His charge Blizzard Snow dwelt on debut, losing a length or so, but also showed a nice big action and also finished second. She is also drawn high but gets a 2,5kg gender allowance and does not have a lot to beat. Busstoptohounslow has run some fair races and should enjoy this trip having run on well over 1000m in his penultimate start. He has a low draw so could be a more lively threat than his odds of 3/1 compared to 6/10 for Blizzard Snow suggest. His Lordship has shown ability and comes from some strong formlines. He returns from a layoff since April but in this field could be in the shake up with a 2,5kg claimer up, but on the downside he has the widest draw of all.
In the third race Bad Medicine was actually beaten by His Lordhip the last time he ran back in April. However, he made a fair debut when a nine length second to Buffalo Storm Cody and it’s hard to find anything to beat him. The moderate pair Mizzen Sword and Antonio Gaudi should finish close together on form and could be the main dangers.
In the fourth race over 2000m Avoontoast was a touch disappoining last time but the winner of that race, Indian Ocean, is a decent sort and was given a masterful ride by Piere Strydom. She was going the right way before that and has not only always been held in high regard by Joe Soma but the latter’s yard is in good form. Aerial’s Jet won a good race last time and was only raised two points by the handicapper and Gavin Lerena stays aboard. She should be right there. I Am Regal chased Indian Ocean home last time and was 4,50 lengths clear of Avoontoast, but some other formlines suggest Avoontoast could have her measure. I Am Regal can’t be left out of exotics though.
In the fifth race over 1400m Willy Meet Again won easily second time out after a good debut and looks to be promising and should enjoy the step up in trip too. However, he does have a high draw and has to run off an 88 merit rating in his handicap bow, so it won’t be easy. Hillary Step will not mind the step down in trip and only has to overcome a three point raise for her last win and she has a middle draw with Trent Mayhew staying aboard after that last win. Blue Horizon is ideally distance suited and the blinkers come off after she had won without them over this trip and then wore them last time when second over 1200m. That was a good Highveld debut last time and she has a nice low draw. Alabama Anna is in good form and should relish this trip. The draw of seven is on the high side. Golden Aspen is capable of a strong finish and stays this trip. However, she has a high draw. Mary Read finished a good second over 1600m first time out the maidens and the form has been franked. However, she also has a high draw.
In the sixth over 1400m Willowild looks to be one who can progress and the form of his Maiden Juvenile Plate win over 1500m at the end of July has been well franked so he can go close off an 81 merit rating . However, he is yet another fancied horse on the day who has a high draw. Perini Palace was beaten two lengths by Risky Business last time over 1500m and is 2kg better off and might enjoy the slight step down. However, his draw is also on the high side. Risky Business goes for a hattrick and has a low draw of four. Mother City faced some fair sorts as a maiden without being disgraced and has to be considered. Together Again could be dangerous from draw one.
In the seventh over 1200m Black Egret has some class and has Piere Strydom up, although if high draws are unfavourable it might be tricky from draw six out of nine. Longsword is capable of staying on strongly and a high draw might not be that much of a disadvantage if he is dropped out. Tsar Bomba returns from a layoff and the Janse van Vuuren runners have seemed to need their first outings this season. Cian The Conqueror is in good form but also has a high draw. Of the low drawn horses Esquevelle and Open Highway make appeal.
In the last race over 1200m Purpleninjaturtle makes appeal but is yet another with a tricky draw of six out of nine. Clarkson has ability over this trip and has a middle draw. Prince of Kildare sneaks into the handicap with the minimum weight and could do well from pole position under Muzi Yeni. King Of Numbers will enjoy reverting to this trip but has a hugh draw. Phala Millions and Bregardt have nice draws and are not out of it. Written In Stone won easily last time and with the same jockey up could defy being officially 4kg under sufferance from a good draw.
