Daniel Muscutt will be out to make history on Double Superlative (Picture: Wayne Marks)
The WSB Met winner Double Superlative is out at 33/1 with the Hollywoodbets Durban July sponsor and this could be due to his well below par comeback run plus a report from the Justin Snaith yard that he is probably one run short of his best.
However, they did report yesterday (Thursday), “Double Superlative put in a superb gallop and had he had the benefit of another prep-run, he’d be the horse to beat. This son of Twice Over is one run short of his best, but class does often prevail. He produced an eye-catching grass gallop this week. Don’t leave him out any bets!”
There has been a lot of talk and mathematics showing the three-year-olds to be in the pound seats.
However, one important piece of collateral form has not been mentioned and it puts Double Superlative close to the three-year-olds in terms of being well weighted on paper.
He beat Without Question by 1,65 lengths on weight for age terms in the Met.
That equates, over that trip, to a 1.65kg better performance than Without Question.
In the WSB 1900 Without Question gave Oriental Charm 4kg and lost by three lengths.
Oriental Charm was 1,5kg better off than weight for age and the equation shows that he only put in a 1,5kg better performance than Without Question.
So that puts Double Superlative slightly ahead of Oriental Charm on weight for age terms.
However, Oriental Charm goes ahead again, because he is 1,5kg better off than weight for age with Double Superlative in the July.
On the other hand Without Question was making a comeback run from a foot issue in the WSB 1900 and was unlikely to have been at his peak, whereas he would have been at hos peak in the Met.
This puts Double Superlative in the picture, provided he is able to produce his best off his less than ideal preparation.
The best fancied older horse See It Again is now at 6/1 compared to Double Superlative’s 33/1.
See It Again was obviously below his best in the Met.
But was he 7,25 lengths below his best?
Considering the distance of the July and the weights and the form of the Met, See It Again should finish 7,25 lengths behind Double Superlative on paper.
That is an enormous task even for a top class horse running against one who might still need it.
Daniel Muscutt, rider of Double Superlative, will be out to make history by winning both the Met and the July in his first respective rides in the two iconic races.
He would be well advised to look at last year’s replay and see what happened to another overseas jockey, Christophe Soumillon, who went for a run down the outside on Safe Passage and within strides the gap out there changed into a wall of horses in front of him and he had nowehere to go!
