Colonel Mustard Can Solve The Puzzle At Ascot

Jamie Lynch, At The Races’ Senior Form Analyst, is at Ascot on Saturday for Sky Sports Racing and here he puts the day’s signature contest in the spotlight.

Over and above the 1965 Chase, the Grade 2 Howden Ascot Hurdle at 16H45 on Saturday is the race of the day at Ascot.

There’s only six runners declared but they are a meaningful mix of assets, approaches and ages. The past and the future meet in the present, because four of these have already been in a Grade 1, while Golden Ace is destined for that loftiest level sooner rather than later. Let’s look at the contenders in detail.

Watch every race on CopyBet November Racing Weekend at Ascot live on Sky Sports Racing (Sky 415 | Virgin 519) on Friday 22nd and Saturday 23rd November.

Jockey: H Cobden | Trainer: P F Nicholls

Hard to believe he’s still only 5 given all he’s done already, including winning this very race last year, though that was a substandard renewal, for which he still has a penalty now, plus he came in hot then (had made a successful return at Cheltenham), unlike this time, a time when the stable’s reappearers have needed a run more than ever, even the bigger guns.

Individually, though, he has a good record when fresh, as he was for his final start last season (after a 4-month break) when producing a personal best for fourth – to Impaire Et Passe – in the best Select Hurdle we’ve ever seen, thanks to the trainers’ title going down to the last day. That’s the top-rated form in the race according to the official handicapper but, even if picking up where he left off, he’ll do well to give 10 lb to Golden Ace.

Caoilin Quinn | G & J Moore

A half-brother to Grade 1 winner Saldier and went two places better than that one when third in a Triumph Hurdle, his first and only defeat since perceptively plucked from a Milan maiden. Despite Sir Gino’s absence, it was still a worthy edition of the Triumph won by Majborough, while runner-up secured her Grade 1 at Punchestown, and it’s significant that Burdett Road struck an early blow for last year’s juveniles in the Greatwood.

He looked such a natural two-miler last season that there’s just a nagging doubt about him over this trip, but it won’t be a slog, given the ground, and generally there are no worries about him training on, the size of him. He’s got a bit to find with a few, but the point is that he might find it, being an up-and-coming 4-y-o.

Adam Wedge | L Fowler

On the face of it, he’s an underachiever who’s over the hill, rising 10 and with just two novice wins to his name, but that’s misrepresentative of his class and consistency, as he has been at all of the big events and contested six Grade 1s, including last season’s Champion Hurdle when an unthreatening fifth to State Man.

And he has a few things in his favour here, principally that it’s probably more of a ‘Cup Final’ for him than the others and, to that end, he’s the only one with a recent run behind him, an eye-catching one at that. Besides fitness, he has precisely the right blend for what this race will test, and he was very well suited to Ascot the once he came, for the Kennel Gate back in 2021, when second to none other than Jonbon. There’s no way Colonel Mustard should be the outsider of the six.

N de Boinville | N J Henderson

The stresses of the stable meant that Nicky Henderson ran only 16 horses at the Cheltenham Festival, half of which were pulled up, while four others were tailed off, and only two ran really well: Luccia and Lucky Place. To finish fourth of 21 in the Coral Cup, as a novice, from a misfiring yard, was quite the achievement, and it was just the last in a sequence of uplifts, having chased home Gidleigh Park in a Grade 2 the time before, and been beaten just ¾ length by Golden Ace (giving her a stone) the time before that.

He’s the chosen one for a stable that also had Jango Baie entered up, though that may be to do with readiness than rank, and he’ll definitely climb higher this season, but maybe more after this race than in this race which is bound to push a few pressure points over this trip on goodish ground first time out.

S Bowen | O Murphy

He’s a mid-150s chaser, but it’s 2½ years and 11 races since he last ran over hurdles, so it’s anyone’s guess as to how good he still is at this game: the handicapper’s guess is 149 which is second only to Blueking D’Oroux in the ratings hierarchy of this race, but that’s probably overstretching things.

He has won first time out the last two seasons, but it’s safe to presume it’s a pipe-opener this time around, though in his stable tour on attheraces.com earlier this month Olly Murphy highlighted this race for him, as well as stating that “jumping fences isn’t the easiest for him at times.” Assumption is the mother of all mistakes, they say.

Lorcan Williams | J Scott

“I’m not going to say she’s the best mare I’ve had because Apple’s Jade was pretty special, but she’s very, very good.” Brighterdaysahead has lived up to the hype for Gordon Elliott and beaten everything put in front of her…apart from the time she came up against Golden Ace at Cheltenham. True, she was getting 5 lb from Brighterdaysahead in the Dawn Run and the sprint finish suited her the better but it was still quite the signature at the bottom of an unblemished, season-long statement which proposed a Grade 1 graduation for this campaign.

Her dam was a listed winner on the Flat and Golden Ace tanks through her races like she could do the same if ever sent that way, but her strong-travelling style has got her this far over hurdles and marked her out from the crowd, even the best of the Irish at Cheltenham, and, because that was a novice, it halves her Grade 2 penalty, meaning she still gets weight off everything in here, against the males. If good to go first time out, she’ll take a lot of beating.

This race starts and very probably ends with Golden Ace who grew in status and significance through her first season and has the tools to go to the very top, which makes this reappearance more of a stepping stone, plus the trainer reported in October a slight setback of a pulled muscle. It’s easy to overlook COLONEL MUSTARD for the simple fact he’s the old man of the party, but it may be a big help that he’s the only one of these with race-fitness on his side following a second at Sligo which suggested that all of his powers are intact, and those powers don’t line up with his price, too big for the qualities he’s got.