Bottomsuptogether has been selected to win the valuable Poinsettia Handicap (Picture: HKJC).
Tim Carroll (At The Races)
Sha Tin Sunday Formguides And Selections
The valuable Poinsettia Handicap headlines at Sha Tin on Sunday where Tim previews all 10 races.
This Sunday sees a highly competitive 10-race card from Sha Tin getting underway at 06H45 SA Time. The feature of the meeting is the finale race 10, The Class 2 Poinsettia Handicap, over six-furlongs, offering more than £284,000 in prize-money.
Now onto this week’s selections:
Race 1: Class 5 Amaryllis Handicap (6:45am SA Time) (1 mile)
2 SPECIAL HEDGE has just the one win from seventeen starts but it did come from a 7lb higher mark at a level above this last season and although unplaced in three of his four runs this season, he hasn’t been beaten far in a few of those, and he’ll find the waters a bit calmer now that he drops into the bottom grade for the first time. He does draw toward the outside, but they have a nice long run to the first bend, and connections have applied a first-time visor.
Dangers:
5 Kasa Papa is yet to win in twenty-eight local starts, but he has hit the frame from marks of up to 32lb higher than his current assessment with two of those placed efforts coming from just three starts at this level.
3 Chamander has recorded two wins over the seven-furlongs here this season & whilst unplaced his last two, one was at the Valley, before being given a bit to do from a high draw last time & he could bounce back, but Purton jumps off to ride the selection.
7 Cervin arrives with a 6lb penalty having won at Happy Valley last time & although this will require more, he’s lightly raced and that was his first try over this trip.
Race 2: Class 4 Erica Handicap (Restricted) (7:15am) (7 furlongs)
3 ETALON OR is a four-start maiden that continues to draw high stalls, but they have a decent run to the first bend over this trip and he has been ridden cold all four starts, so the high draw probably isn’t as crucial as it is to a couple of his market rivals that have also drawn high. The selection steps up to seven-furlongs for the first time having worked home in good style his last three, including when a nose behind Ka Ying Rising & Juneau Pride last time. He meets both rivals on better terms having had a chequered passage that day, and with a clear round, he should go close.
Dangers:
1 Ka Ying Attack carries a 6lb penalty having won over six-furlongs when a lip in front of Juneau Pride last time & now that he’s 4lb worse off, you could argue it’s enough to turn the form around, but he did it tough that day when planted wide & is a good chance to defy the penalty.
2 Juneau Pride has been runner-up both starts & was only a lip behind Ka Ying Attack last time who he now meets on 4lb better terms having finished a couple of spots in front of the same rival on debut, and he looks a big player despite the high draw.
5 Lucky Statement is a debutant that has looked sharp at his last couple of trials, one of which he won, he draws the inside and with Purton booked, a market watch is strongly advised.
Race 3: Class 4 Hibiscus Handicap (7:45am) (6 furlongs)
2 CITY THUNDER is an eight-start maiden (runner-up at Flemington only Australian start) that has shown plenty of improvement this season with two placed efforts over course & trip and arguably was unlucky not to win last time when tight for room and only beaten a nose. The selection will probably want a bit further than this in time, but he has positioned up slightly better than midfield his last two, and with plenty of pace on offer, the race should set up perfectly from the low draw.
Dangers:
1 Super Legends, who won over course & trip in September, has been turned over in three subsequent starts, but he ran with merit in defeat last time after spending plenty of pennies to get across from a high draw and should have a far softer commute here.
11 Island Buddy, who showed nothing on debut in April but left that well & truly behind when runner-up over course & trip last time when two spots in front of Super Legends, is entitled to improve further but does have a tricky draw.
13 Spicy Spangle has been turned over his last two at Happy Valley but won over course & trip when last seen here, & he no weight & is perfectly drawn given he likes to punch forward, but this is likely to be run at a strong gallop with several others who like to do the same.
Race 4: Class 4 Holly Handicap (8:15am) (7 furlongs)
5 WIN SPEED, who is a low mileage 4yo from a yard having a fantastic season, broke his duck two back when having his first try over this trip before running with plenty of merit despite being turned over as favourite when runner-up here last time. The selection sat up on the pace that day in a race that set up for the closers, and he showed plenty of courage to only go down a nose with the other pace runner all well beaten. He does draw high, and whilst he’s never led, he does have plenty of early toe and with only a moderate gallop on offer, first time booking, Hugh Bowman, will probably elect to punch forward.
Dangers:
12 Sunday’s Serenade is a low mileage maiden with scope that has run well enough in defeat his last two despite not enjoying the rub of the green, and Purton is a first-time booking.
11 Triumphant Warrior is a twelve-start maiden, but he has been placed two from three this season including when runner-up last time on his first try over this trip and he should have all the favours from the low draw.
14 Super Wise Dragon will be moving up in grade under a 7lb penalty having broken his duck at the fifteenth attempt when last seen, and he does have more on his plate here, but he won in good style last time and he does carry 11lb less here.
Race 5: Class 4 Hibiscus Handicap (9:10am) (6 furlongs)
2 HAPPY PARK is a progressive low mileage type that was runner-up over seven-furlongs two back behind a rival that then hacked up at a level above this, before breaking his duck last time when dropped back to this trip. The selection goes up 6lb for that, which sees him toward the top of the handicap, but he sat outside the leader cutting the breeze last time and from the 5 draw, this race maps for him the grab the back of the likely leader (Colonel) with all the favours.
Dangers:
1 Master Trillion won over five-furlongs on debut in October and ran better than the bare result last time over this trip when coming from a hopeless position on the bend to finish fifth beaten just over a length, and first-time blinkers might help, but he once again has a high draw.
5 Sky Joy defied a double figure quote when runner-up over course & trip on debut, and the third has subsequently hacked-up, but he will have to overcome the outside draw.
6 Colonel is a veteran that is a bit of an all or nothing type that tends to save his best for Happy Valley, but he loves bowling along from the front, thus he’s perfectly drawn in 1, and with the 10lb claim he effectively runs from a 4lb lower mark than when he won in October.
Race 6: Class 4 Ivy Handicap (9:40am) (1 mile 2 furlongs)
3 SERANGOON will be a bit of a swing given he doesn’t win too often, but his record over this trip and further at this level reads 3-2-4, and that fourth was last time out when in behind Affordable, who he meets on 6lb better terms, having not enjoyed the best of luck in the run. It would be a stretch to say he should have won that night given he was two-lengths behind the winner, but he was disappointed for a run at the 250m mark and by the time he saw daylight the race was over. The Tony Cruz 5yo is a closer, so he will need some luck, but with Purton a first time booking, we should get plenty of help from the saddle.
Dangers:
1 Charity Gain is a promising low mileage staying prospect that won over nine-furlongs at just his third start in October before running with merit his last two when placed, and he looks the one to take out of the race going forward, but he does have to give away up to 19lbs to his rivals.
11 Management Folks was having just his second run back after a seven-month layoff when runner-up at Happy Valley to Affordable, who he meets on 4lb better terms, last time when finishing in front of a few of these, and is entitled to improve for the run
2 Joyful Prosperity, who has looked a different horse since stepping up in trip for new trainer Danny Shum, & he could have more to offer, but he only just got there last time under a rail hugging ride & goes up 6lb.
Race 7: Class 3 Pok Oi Cup (Handicap) (10:10am) (6 furlongs)
2 YOUNG SUPERSTAR, who hacked up in a maiden on debut at Kranji in Singapore, has won two of his seven local starts the most recent when scoring over course & trip last month. He was last seen on international race day when displaying plenty of pace to cross from a high draw then attempting to make all before shooting three lengths clear at the top of the straight, only to be run down late on, finishing with the bronze. He stays on the same mark here in a race that doesn’t look as deep, and from the inside draw, he should be able to grab a spot on the front with minimal effort.
Dangers:
12 Karate Express, who won a restricted race over five-furlongs on debut in June, was last seen when runner-up over this trip in July in another restricted contest, and although he has more on his plate at this level, he’s a promising 3yo and a market watch is advised on his seasonal return.
6 Alsonso was listed placed in Australia and ran with promise on his local debut when placed over this trip and although well held last time, he had a tough trip that day and could easily bounce back here with first time cheek-pieces fitted.
5 Riding Together, who was last seen winning at Haydock (known as Cool Divided) in June over this trip for Clive Cox, makes his local debut on the back of a few unplaced trials, but he’s been asked zero questions in those trials and the booking of Purton and blinkers applied would suggest a forward showing is expected.
Race 8: Class 3 Tulip Handicap (10:40am) (6 furlongs)
1 DIVANO goes from the top of the handicap, and he does have to concede plenty of weight to his rivals, but he arrives with the best form in the race and from the draw in 1, he should have the perfect race set-up. The selection, who won two of his four starts during his first season, won over course at his most recent outing with a couple of these in behind. He goes up 9lb for that, but he won by a margin that day, seemingly with plenty in the locker, and I think he’ll go close to taking this before moving up in grade.
Dangers:
5 Romantic Son, who hacked up in a maiden at his only start in Australia as an odds-on favourite, was a beaten favourite when runner-up on his local debut before a run too bad to be true last time, and he’s worth keeping safe on his first spin at Sha Tin.
13 Lifeline Express has been placed two from three this campaign including when a tad unlucky not to win over course & trip two back, and although he ran below par last time, he’s well drawn and goes from near the foot of the handicap.
9 Righteous Arion has struggled a tad since his mark has gone into the 60’s, but he’s a consistent type who should enjoy a soft commute from the low draw and it worth including in any exotic type bets.
Race 9: Class 3 Spruce Handicap (11:15am) (7 furlongs)
3 JOHANNES BRAHMS, who was a winner at Naas & placed in both the Windsor Castle & Gimcrack Stakes for Aidan O’Brien as a juvenile, picked up the bronze on his local debut when beaten less than a length from a high draw before a better effort than the bare result last time when finishing fourth earlier this month. He was bumped heavily coming out of the stalls which saw him out the back, completely opposite to the way he was ridden first up. He still ran through the line with plenty purpose that day, despite racing a tad keen. He draws in 2 here, he’s entitled to improve for his first two runs, & James McDonald gets the call up.
Dangers:
11 Glorious Success took nine goes to break his maiden in Australia before making his way to Hong Kong, but he defied market expectations when runner-up over course & trip on his local debut last month, he once again has the inside draw and should be sharper for the first up run.
4 Beauty Crescent, who was a Listed winner as a juvenile in Ireland for Ger Lyon in 2022, is a long-standing Hong Kong maiden but he has hit the frame on eleven occasions and is likely to run another honest race from the favourable draw.
1 Superb Boy has struggled his last few starts but he takes a drop in grade, and he won and was runner-up his only two runs in this grade last season and is only 1lb higher here.
Race 10: Class 2 Poinsettia Handicap (11:50am) (6 furlongs)
10 BOTTOMSUPTOGETHER finished outside of the top two for the first time when unplaced at his most recent start which was his first try over seven furlongs. However, I doubt it was the step up in trip that was the cause of the defeat and more to do with the fact he scoped poorly post-race. The selection had three wins & two silvers over this trip prior that, including at his penultimate start when a lip behind Wunderbar, who looks likely to be favourite here. They had a few of these in behind that day, and with the selection meeting his rival on 7lb better terms and with the draw perfectly flipped from last time (1 & 11), if runs to his best, he’ll give this an almighty shake.
Dangers:
2 Wunderbar tasted defeat for just the second time when runner-up over five-furlongs last time, but he’s far better suited to this trip and looks the main threat to the selection.
7 Raging Blizzard hasn’t been on the Sha Tin turf for nearly a year which is curious given his record here reads 2-1-4-1, and whilst he is yet to win in three starts this season, I suspect he’ll enjoy returning to the larger layout.
13 Fast Network is a promising young sprinter that has won three from five all over five furlongs and although turned over as a short odds-on favourite last time, he give’s the impression he’ll enjoy stepping up to this trip & he goes from near the foot of the handicap, but he lands in what is a hot Class 2.
SUNDAY’S PLACEPOT
Today’s Place Pot will be races 5 through to 10. All up we will be playing 81 combinations (3x3x3x1x3x1), which will cost £8.10 for a 10p stake and so on. Good luck.
LEG 1- 1 MASTER TRILLION 2 HAPPY PARK 5 SKY JOY
LEG 2- 1 CHARITY GAIN 3 JOYFUL PROSPERITY 11 MANAGEMENT FOLKS
LEG 3- 2 YOUNG SUPERSTAR 6 ALSONSO 12 KARATE EXPRESS
LEG 4- 1 DIVANO
LEG 5- 3 JOHANNES BRAHMS 4 BEAUTY CRESCENT 11 GLORIOUS SUCCESS
LEG 6- 10 BOTTOMSUPTOGETHER
TIM’S BEST BETS
9.40am SHA TIN
SREANGOON (EW)
10:40am SHA TIN
DIVANO (NAP)
11.50am SHA TIN
BOTTOMSUPTOGETHER (NB)
