Billie Bowlegs (Picture credit: JC Photos).
The Alec Laird-trained Grade 1 WSB SA Derby favourite is named after a chief who led the last major seminole resistance against the United States government. The real Billy Bowlegs was a thorn in the flesh of the government, so it will be somewhat ironic if the horse Billy Bowlegs gives a boost to The United States, his sire, by winning the Derby on Satuday.
When analysing a SA Derby the big question mark is whether the contenders will stay, especially those who have not been tested over the 2450m trip.
When studying the form of the Derby contestants that have come out of the Grade 1 WSB SA Classic, analysts tend to concentrate on how well those contestants finished.
However, it is probably more important to take note of the start.
How well did the horse relax immediately after the jump?
How well did the horse relax in the running?
The ability to conserve energy coupled with the pedigree are probably the two best indicators of whether a horse is going to stay or not.
Billy Bowlegs relaxed very well after the SA Classic jump and also relaxed well in the running.
The jockey likely made a mistake by switching him out approaching the straight instead of staying tucked in behind runners.
That meant he was exposed for the entire straight.
So, he did well to stay on for a 1,75 length third.
Interestingly, Jimmy Don’s rider remained patient in last place and had cover in the straight until making his move at the 400m mark.
He duly finished like a train for a one length second.
The rider of the latter was Gavin Lerena and as Jimmy Don has avoided the Derby in favour of a tilt at the Grade 3 Byerley over 1400m down in KZN the following day, the twice champion jockey has been snapped up to ride the SA Derby favourite.
Hopefully, he will ride Billy Bowlegs from a wide draw the same way he rode Jimmy Don.
On pedigree coupled with his relaxed manner of racing, this horse should enjoy the 2450m trip and find plenty in the straight.
By contrast trying to get handy runs the risk of the horse taking a hold and being caught wide, which usually ends a horse’s chances.
The United States won a Group 1 over 2000m and a Group 2 over 2500m.
Billy Bowlegs is out of a Captain Al mare called Yourethetops.
The latter’s only win was second time out over 900m, but one of her siblings was Top Seller, the Vaughan Marshall-trained son of Al Mufti who won the Cape Derby over 2000m and finished fourth in the SA Derby.
Billy Bowlegs dam is therefore a three-parts sister to Top Seller, remembering that Captain Al is by Al Mufti.
So it all points to Billy Bowlegs to win the Grade 1 R1.5 million SA Derby over 2450m at Turffontein Standside on Saturday.
Alec Laird has won this race before with Royal Bencher, who dead-heated with the Sean Tarry-trained Pomodoro in 2012.
