Green With Envy And Flag Man are two of five three-year-olds in the Hollywoodbets Durban July (Candiese Lenferna Photography)
In the annual debate about the Hollywoodbets Durban July being a three-year-old race or an older horse race the three-year-olds are comfortably favoured by most analysts this year.
Two bottom-weighted older horses, Belgarion and Winchester Mansion, have won the July this decade and it did seem a little bit unfair that the minimum weight for a three-year-old was the same as the minimum weight for an older horse.
So this year a change to the conditions saw the minimum weight for an older male being raised to 54kg and the minimum weight for an older female raised to 53kg.
The minimum weight for a three-year-old male and three-year-old filly remain on 53kg and 52kg respectively (incidentally, this year’s race is the first time in 45 years it has been without a female runner).
This was the first aspect which put the ball in the court of the three-year-olds this year.
In fact had those conditions been in place last year, then theoretically the 0,25 length second-placed See It Again would have beaten the winner Winchester Mansion.
Both of those two will benefit from this year’s conditions change as See It Again carries topweight of 60kg and Winchester Mansion carries 57kg and they only have to give the bottom weighted older males 6kg and 2kg respectively, as opposed to the 7kg and 3kg the pair would have had to respectively give them under the old condition.
However, the few formlines between older horses and three-year-olds puts the race in favour of the latter.
The most glaring instant of the three-year-olds looking to be superior is when taking the collateral form of the Daily News 2000 and big races on the Highveld.
Royal Victory beat Aragosta by 3,75 lengths in the wfa Gr 1 Premier’s Champions Challenge, Pure Predator beat Aragosta by 4,05 lengths at wfa terms in the Colorado King Stakes over 2000m, with Hotarubi just 0,75 lengths behind Pure Predator, and in the Daily News Pure Predator was beaten 5,30 lengths by Green With Envy with Hotarubi 1,65 lengths behind him. That puts Green With Envy more than five lengths ahead of Royal Victory on weight for age terms, using either Pure Predator or Hotarubi. Green With Envy is 1kg worse off than weight for age with Royal Victory in the July so theoretically that puts him about four lengths ahead of Royal Victory at the weights.
However, there are some who believe the Daily News result was not a true reflection due to the muddling pace and they might not take the above collateral form on face value.
However, another example of three-year-olds being better off is provided by Oriental Charm. He finishing just 0,30 lengths behind Future Swing in the WSB 1900 and is now 3kg better off. Oriental Charm also beat Shoemaker by 1,20 lengths in the Hollywoodbets Dolphins Cup Trial over 1800m and he will also be 3kg better off with that one.
The topweight See It Again is the one horse who could do it for the older horses. On formlines through Gimmeanotherchance and Cousin Casey, the three-year-olds are favoured over him too, but that is over a 1600m trip.
The formlines for See It Again over middle distances, using Without Question and Oriental Charm, also favours the three-year-olds. However, See It Again clearly did not run to his best in the WSB Met.
The weights of the five three-year-olds have worked out exceptionally and on paper they should all finish on top of each other.
The handicappers should be praised for it, but if they are it will be a first.
Green With Envy beat Oriental Charm by 3,25 lengths in the Splashout Cape Derby and has to give him 3kg; Green With Envy beat Flag Man by a head in the Daily News and has to give him half-a-kilogram; Green With Envy beat Barbaresco by 2,60 lengths in the Daily News and has to give him 2,5kg; on a line through Pure Predator on 1800m form, Green With Envy is 3,30 lengths better than Purple Pitcher and he has to give the latter 3kg.
There are a few form anomalies which don’t fit into the above argument.
For example, Purple Pitcher was beaten 4,75 lengths in the Gr 3 Jubilee. However, Purple Pitcher was likely running fresh then in the same way he had run fresh in the Gr 2 Gauteng Guineas and he performed below par on both occasions. This is particularly in light of Meridius and Son Of Raj finishing first and third in the Jubilee, as they were both many lengths behind Royal Victory in the Premiers Champions Challenge.
The three-year-olds look to be in the pound seats this year, but as they say races aren’t run on paper and those who have got older horses in the office sweepstake need not be forlorn.
