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Race 1 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint Tips
Mischief Magic E/W
21H00 (SA Time) Keeneland Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint 5½f
As with the majority of the turf races staged this weekend, European horses dominate the betting. Nunthorpe runner-up and Abbaye winner, The Platinum Queen drops back into her own age group, but it will be hard for Richard Fahey’s flying filly to dominate after drawing gate 12.
At 8/1, you’re getting an excellent each-way price about MISCHIEF MAGIC, who didn’t run badly when attempting to come from off the pace in the Middle Park last time out.
Charlie Appleby’s juvenile had been progressing well prior to that run, coming from the rear to win a Group Three at Kempton with plenty left in the tank. The track at Keeneland will suit Mischief Magic more than the Rowley Mile did and Charlie Appleby’s record in North American Grade Ones is outstanding.
Race 2 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Tips
Tell Me No Lies E/W
21H40 (SA Time) Keeneland NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) 1m½f
A handful of likely front-runners will be vying for the lead early on, which should set this contest up for a fast closer. Chocolate Gelato came from off the pace to win the Grade One Frizette Stakes last time out and she deservedly tops the market. At the prices, though, I’d rather side with Peter Miller’s filly, AND TELL ME NO LIES.
Since finishing fourth on debut, Ramon Vazquez’s mount has recorded three straight wins. And Tell Me Nolies claimed a hard-fought victory in the Grade One Del Mar Debutante Stakes, where she was forced to come from the rear after being hampered at the start. Miller’s filly then backed that win up in the Chandelier Stakes, where And Tell Me Nolies produced a career-best performance on her first start over this distance. She offers plenty of each-way value at 7/1.
Race 3 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Tips
I’m not totally convinced by the market topping Meditate. All of her best runs this season have come over six furlongs. On the two occasions that she’s tried seven, she’s seemed a little one-paced, so I can’t see why she’ll be suited by this step up to a mile.
Midnight Mile E/W
22H20pm (SA Time) Keeneland Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf 1m
Talking of miles, MIDNIGHT MILE seems to have been overlooked in the betting. Richard Fahey’s filly is two-for-two during her short career, returning an SP of 14/1 on debut and 22/1 when she won the Oh So Sharp Stakes. By No Nay Never out of a Galileo mare, eight furlongs on fast Keeneland ground should suit her perfectly.
G Laurie E/W
20H20 (SA Time) Keeneland Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf 1m
I’m also going to have an each-way bet on G LAURIE, who I backed in the Natalma Stakes following a hugely impressive debut win. Graham Motion’s filly could only finish third that day at Woodbine, but finished off her race well after getting stuck in traffic at a crucial stage. British Champion Jockey, William Buick comes in for the ride and the application of first-time blinkers could help this talented filly get competitive from stall 11.
Race 4 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Tips
Lost Ark E/W
23H00 (SA Time) FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented By T’bred Aftercare Alliance (Grade 1) 1m½f
Bob Baffert’s Cave Rock has looked hugely impressive on all three of his starts and comes into this on the back of two five-length victories in Grade One company. Bob Baffert’s star has been drawn kindly in stall three. He’s clearly going to be very hard to beat.
I’m never keen to back odds-on favourites, though, so I’ll chance my arm with LOST ARK. Todd Pletcher’s juvenile went into the Breeders’ Futurity as one of the fancied runners, following a runaway victory in the Sapling Stakes over a mile. Lost Ark got off to a shocking start that day, as he was bumped and shuffled back to the rear, and did well just to stay on and place sixth.
25/1 doesn’t represent the talent that this son of Violence possesses. Given a clean break and a smoother passage from stall eight, I see no reason why Lost Ark can’t challenge for the places.
Race 5 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Tips
Silver Knott
21H40 (SA Time) Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) 1m
Charlie Appleby sent out Modern Games to win this race last year. This time he’ll be represented by SILVER KNOTT, who’s form in Britain is rock solid.
Silver Knott looked special when winning the Solario Stakes at Sandown. Appleby’s colt then hated soft ground when third in the Champagne Stakes behind Chaldean, who won the Grade One Dewhurst Stakes next time out. Silver Knott then bounced back to winning form in the Autumn Stakes, carrying a penalty to victory over Epictetus, Holloway Boy and Dancing Magic, who repeated their second, third and fourth placings behind the ultra-impressive Auguste Rodin in the Vertem Futurity Trophy a few weeks ago.
William Buick’s mount has been drawn perfectly in stall four. If Silver Knott breaks well – which many European horses fail to do at the Breeders’ Cup – then he’ll take the world of beating.
