by Matt Rennie (Racing Post)
The Cazoo St Leger (16H30 SA Time Saturday) is the final Classic in Britain this year and one of the standout races this weekend. We have looked back at a number of factors to see who may win Saturday’s Group 1 highlight.
Ratings
In the last ten years, only two winners have had a rating below 110. Harbour Law was rated just 102 when he caused a shock in 2016, while a year earlier Simple Verse was rated 108 when she dramatically won the race following an appeal.
The last five winners have been rated 115 or higher, with both Hurricane Lane (2021) and Capri (2017) the highest-rated on 120.
Distance
Only three horses in the last ten years had won over 1m6f or further before they faced the 1m6½f trip of the St Leger.
Kew Gardens (2018) and Simple Verse (2015) both scored over 1m6f, while 2013 winner Leading Light had won over 2m when the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot was still run over that trip.
Eldar Eldarov, Hoo Ya Mal and outsider Giavellotto are three who are currently engaged in the race to have won over 1m6f this season, although Zechariah did win the Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury over 1m5½f on his last start.
Class
Group 1 efforts do not guarantee St Leger success, as six of the last ten winners struck on what was their first attempt at the highest level.
That could benefit the like of favourite New London and leading filly Haskoy, while none of the runners who have previously raced at the top level have been successful.
Odds
Such is the quality a Classic usually provides, shocks are rare and the last five winners have all gone off at single-figure odds with three of those sent off favourite.
Encke was the biggest shock in the last ten years when denying Camelot’s Triple Crown bid at 25-1 in 2012, while Harbour Law scored at 22-1 in 2016.
Verdict
Plenty go in with hope in search of St Leger success, but the trends make it hard to ignore odds-on favourite New London from giving Charlie Appleby, William Buick and Godolphin successive wins in Britain’s oldest Classic.
The three-year-old was last seen winning the Gordon Stakes from subsequent Great Voltigeur winner Deauville Legend at Glorious Goodwood and, while he is yet to race over this trip, he meets the ratings threshold to win it off a mark of 115.
It looks a below-standard St Leger and should give New London a great opportunity to hit the mark at the highest level.
Betfair Sportsbook: 5-6 New London, 4 Eldar Eldarov, 13-2 Hoo Ya Mal, 8 Zechariah, 12 Bluegrass, 14 French Claim, 20 bar
