By David Milnes/Racing Post

 

Baaeed  has “a strong chance” of ending his career in the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) at Longchamp in October, it was announced on August 28.

 

That would mean the unbeaten colt would sign off Oct. 2 in Europe’s most prestigious race, when he would be having a first try at a mile and a half, provided the ground is suitable.

 

Speculation has been rife over targets for the 10-for-10 Baaeed ever since his imperious performance in the Juddmonte International Stakes (G1) at York, with the Arc, the Champion Stakes (G1), and the Irish Champion Stakes (G1) all possible contenders.

 

In a statement outlining plans for the world’s highest-rated horse, trainer William Haggas said: “Baaeed has been in great form since York and everyone is happy with his well-being. Having had long discussions with Sheikha Hissa, Angus (Gold), and Richard (Hills), we have come to the conclusion that he will have one more race this season.

 

“That will not sadly be in the Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes, but will be either in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe or the QIPCO Champion Stakes.

 

“A decision will be made nearer the time. He’s not in the Arc, so would need to be supplemented, but we are not keen to run him on bad ground in Paris, so if the ground is nice, there is a strong chance he’ll run there. Otherwise, he’ll wait for the Champion Stakes and run there.”

 

Sheikha Hissa and William Haggas with Baaeed after the Juddmonte International York 17.8.22 Pic: Edward Whitaker

Photo: Edward Whitaker/Racing Post

Sheikha Hissa and William Haggas with Baaeed

Haskell

The deadline to supplement for the Arc is Sept. 28 at a cost of €120,000, four days before the €5 million middle-distance showpiece takes place.

 

Paddy Power quote Baaeed at 4-6 non-runner, money back for the Arc. Spokesman Paul Binfield said: “Ireland’s loss is France’s or England’s gain, and I’m sure everyone who loves their racing will be hoping that the rain stays away from Paris.

 

“If this marvelous horse is to become part of the sport’s folklore as a true great, he’s probably got to go and win an Arc, considered by many to be Europe’s top middle-distance event.”

 

Coral initially made Baaeed 2-1 favorite, then cut his price to 7-4.

 

Baaeed was champion miler of 2021 when he went 6-for-6. He won three more times over that trip this year before stepping up to a mile and a quarter at York, where he scored by a hugely impressive 6 1/2 lengths and earned a career-high Racing Post rating of 138, which has been topped on turf only by Frankel .

 

He was also given a rating of 135 (up from 128) by the BHA, a figure bettered only by Frankel (140) and Baaeed’s sire, Sea The Stars  (136), since the World’s Best Racehorse Rankings were introduced in 2004.

 

Will the Arc Ground Be Suitable for Baaeed?

 

The last three Arcs have been run in testing conditions. Six of the last 10 were on soft ground or worse, but the number of good-ground runnings over the last 20 years rises to 11.

 

Complicating the Baaeed team’s decision on whether to run is that the ground can change very quickly at Longchamp in the autumn should the rain arrive. The going was still good on the Friday before the 2021 Arc, only for rain to arrive Saturday and turn the course soft, and finally holding.

 

But there are other factors that give more cause for optimism. Firstly, there will be a fresh strip of ground on the racing line at Longchamp on the Sunday.

 

Then there is the emerging evidence that ground described as soft or even good to soft on the French scale, measured by the penetrometer, will ride quicker than that if using the Turftrax GoingStick.

 

Treve  ran only 1.5 seconds outside standard on officially soft ground in 2013, while Enable ‘s Arc victory at Chantilly in 2017 was just 0.31 of a second above the average, again on penetrometer soft.