Jet Dark took the breath away with his finishing burst in last year’s L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate. Can he do it again in the L’Ormarins King’s Plate on Saturday? (Picture: L’Ormarins).

Jet’s 2022 LQP Finish A Worry For Dickens’ Fans

The second item in today’s newsletter is SA racing intellect Jay August’s analysis of the sectional timing of the Hollywoodbets Cape Guineas and it provides excellent insight into what separates Charles Dickens from the mere mortals.

The turbo booster Charles Dickens switched on at the 600m mark and maintained all the way to the 100m mark is graphically displayed.

Racing fans seem to enjoy the 400m to finish statistic shown in the Computaform.

However, it is likely meaningless unless the other sections in the race can be viewed.

This is seen in the Cape Guineas where Charles Dickens produces a phenomenal 22,60 seconds 600m to 200m time.

His 400m to finish time was a fast 23,67 seconds, but after that acceleration from the 600m, and considering he had the race in the bag, he understandably slowed in the final 100m.

In all races the horses are actually at their slowest at the end and it is just an optical illusion that gives the impression that those who are passing horses in the final stages are “flying.”

The LQP of 2022 did not have any sectional timing recordings, but an interesting point is that it was run in the third fastest official time time in Queen’s Plate/King’s Plate history … and Jet dark won it by 2,25 lengths despite losing a couple of lengths at the start.

The official time of the race was 96.56 seconds, compared to Charles Dicken’s Hollywoodbets cape Guineas time of 97.69 seconds.

Jet Dark’s 400m to finish time was 23,8 seconds, compared to Charles Dicken’s 23,7 seconds.

However, as opposed to Charles Dickens who won the race chiefly through his superior 600m to 400m section, Jet Dark only displayed his superiority in the final 100m, at least from a visual perspective.

Kommetdieding was behind him at the 600m mark, joins him at the 400m and stays with him until about the 150m mark at which point Jet Dark starts edging ahead.

Jet Dark then puts in what looks visually to be a phenomenal, world class burst in the final 100 metres.

The sectional timing of that race would have been of great value as a comparison to the Hollywoodbets Cape Guineas.

A Hollywoodbets/Gold Circle initiative plans to have sectional timing up and running at all Hollywoodbets race tracks and it is sure going to be a useful addition to form analysis.

Charles Dickens obliterates the 2022 Hollywoodbets Cape Guineas field. (picture: southafrican.wordpress.com)

Cape Guineas Sectional Timing Analysis Shows Why Charles Dickens’ Is Superior

South African racing intellect Jay August has analysed the sectional timing of the Grade 1 Hollywoodbets Cape Guineas and it reveals just how Charles Dickens separates himself from the rest and also enabled August to venture a prediction ahead of the much awaited L’Ormarins King’s Plate.

Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on 2022 Guineas day was the venue for a second round of testing of a proposed new sectional timing system for the Hollywoodbets racecourses.

The below graph shows clearly that Charles Dickens wins the race through his superior section from the 600m mark to the 400m mark and also shows him maintaining superior sectionals all the way to the 100m mark.

The graph shows the normal occurrence of horses being at their slowest in the final stages.

The relative speeds between runners makes it look on video replays as if some of the horses are “flying” at the finish, but this is in fact an optical illusion.

This slowing-down-at-the-end phenomenon is accentuated at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth because it has a nine metre incline from the 650m to the finish.

“The main thrust of speed or acceleration, outside of the gate break, is usually the 600m to 400m section as can be seen in the chart,” says August.

August ascertained from the data made available to him that Charles Dickens and Cousin Casey were the only pair to accumulate eight sub six second 100m sections. Charles Dickens had five of those in the final 600m and Cousin Casey had four in the final 600m.

August said, “They were also the only two horses to race at below an average 6s for each 100m section if one excludes the first section from a standing start. Cousin Casey may have exited the race with a slight dent to his reputation, but he nonetheless displayed superior ability to his rivals, but for the winner.”

He continued, “Money Heist put in a performance which perhaps belies his final position and marks him out as possibly better than his finishing position (6th). He managed four sub-6s 100m sections in the final 600m. Notwithstanding his racing at the rear, only a decent horse would manage this in a race of this class.”

Looking at the below chart, which shows pacemaker Canford Lights to be the only horse to have two 100m sections done in less than 5,5 seconds, August said, “The last column shows that those on the front end of this race managed sub-5.5s 100 segments, which is too fast in relation to the unfolding of the race and their own ability, and likely compromised their performance to varying degrees.”

Looking at the above two charts, he concluded, “To complete the 2022 Cape Guineas analysis, we can look at the finishing speed of each horse in the race. The 600m and 400m finishing times in the 2022 Cape Guineas, and their expression as percentages of overall time are shown – first two columns and last two columns in the chart above.”

“Note that only Charles Dickens, Cousin Casey, and Money Heist were capable of faster closing sections than their overall average race time. Longer term and with more sectional data we may be able to put Charles Dickens’ sub-24s final 400m into some perspective. A final sub-24s final 400m may just be very rare at Kenilworth given the steady climb to the finish.”

“All other horses were below 100% and thus unable to maintain their average speed into the close. On a flat surface with no undulations a horse will travel most efficiently from point A to point B at the same speed throughout, but for the opening acceleration from a standing start. This would imply that close to and just above 100% is most efficient. Two horses of varying ability can finish at close to efficiency, say 101%, and be many lengths adrift, with the good horse in a much faster time than the average horse, and yet both can still be said to have run efficiently.”

“On an undulating surface, however, with additional impediments (the turn, position in the race, the draw, the false rail, and other horses) each racecourse will have an implied most efficient path from A to B.”

“Only an analysis of long-term sectional data and a study of the pattern of winning will show punters what that is, and by reference to that standard, what the likely efficiency of running of each runner was. These are known as sectional pars in the language of speed ratings.”

“From anecdotal evidence collected by me over time, a closing section of ~103% to 104% is likely most efficient at Kenilworth. Hopefully in the future we will have enough accurate and official sectional data emanating from each racetrack to validate such anecdotal (and possibly wrong) assumption.”

Sectional timing was actually introduced in Cape Town around the turn of the century before being abandoned, which allowed August to compare the 2000m Queen’s Plate, won by the great Jet Master, to the 2022 Cape Guineas (see comparison chart below).

He concludes his comparison analysis by making the below points:

1. Jet Master has none of the best 200m sections in his race. As he raced handily it is his racing efficiency that is evident not his superior acceleration.

2. Charles Dickens has three of the fastest 200m sections in the last 1000m of the Guineas, but he has raced from the back and has had to accelerate markedly to win his race.

3. Jet Master completes his race in 100.8% (finishing percentage to overall time from the 600m compared to overall race time) and 99% (final 400m), while Charles Dickens does so in 104.6% and 103.2% respectively.

4. I have pointed out previously that anecdotal evidence appears to support a finishing effort of around 103-104% at Kenilworth, but this can only be tested against long term sectional data which we do not have at present.

5. Jet Master records the 10th best 400m sectional in either race, the 5th best final section, while Charles Dickens records the best 400m section and the best final section.

A good horse can construct a win in whatever manner or style suits their attributes best. Horse Chestnut and Jet Master had high cruising speed, generally sat close to the pace, and extended that to the line. Despite running close to the pace Horse Chestnut had exceptional acceleration off an already high cruising speed, hence his ability to put many lengths between himself and the opposition.

Charles Dickens appears more in the mould of a Sea Cottage, happy to sit towards the rear and use superior acceleration in the 600m to 200m sections of the race, then continue that through to the finish. Running off the pace and at the back induces risk, something Sea Cottage found to his detriment in all four of his defeats. Even the gift of superior acceleration does not always suffice to give victory in a race where traffic problems could arise, but as Sea Cottage also showed in his 1967 Champion Stakes win, he was quite capable of sitting just off the pace and surging clear to the finish – he won that race by 9 lengths. Charles Dickens could likely do much the same if allowed to race more handily.

Jet Dark, Charles Dickens’ main protagonist in the upcoming King’s Plate, appears to be more comfortable with the come-from-behind style of racing. The King’s Plate is likely a smallish field and it is unlikely that either horse will find too much by way of traffic problem. Jet Dark is one of the best wfa horses to have run in SA in the past decade, and Charles Dickens will get a serious test of his ability on 7 Jan. With a sub-23s 400m section of 22.60s in the Guineas, Charles Dickens appears to have remarkable acceleration. Few horses are likely to be able to run sub-23s 400m sections over 1600m at Kenilworth, and win.

Come 7 Jan 2023 we shall hopefully know for sure what remarkable ability lurks in the Charles Dickens engine. Or we may once again marvel at Jet Dark’s ability to always win this class and type of race.

Which will it be?

Winter Greeting remains unbeaten after three starts when successful over 1400m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth in a MR 90 Handicap against older females on New Year’s Eve (Wayne Marks).

Truter and Graaff have two Gold Rush hopefuls

Ken Truter and Lammerskraal Stud’s Pieter Graaff share a Gold Rush Prospectors Ticket and it had value added when Graaff’s three-year-old contender Winter Greeting won a MR92 Handicap over 1400m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth last Saturday.

The novel R7,5-million Gold Rush over 1600m is scheduled for WSB Met Day, 28 January, and Truter said: “We are getting excited and we are happy we got involved. I bumped into Pieter at the 2021 Cape Premier Yearling Sale and he said, ‘Ken, are you buying in, this sounds exciting?’ I shared his sentiments so we decided to buy a ticket together. We have Winter Greeting and Billy Spellbound as hopefuls, both nice sorts and at this stage we have to think Winter Greeting will be our runner.”

Graaff paid R300,000 for Winter Greeting, who was raised at Connemara Stud. She is a daughter of What A Winter and Eastern Greeting (Kahal), unbeaten after three starts and winning with confidence for trainer Sean Tarry.

Truter said: “Billy Spellbound is our colt. He is by William Longsword, also from a Kahal mare, Witchcraft which many will remember. We secured him for R200,000. Witchcraft was a lovely filly I raced alongside Bruce Gardner and Chris van Niekerk. She won the KZN Oaks as a three-year-old and again as a five-year-old mare when they opened the race to older fillies and mares.

“My wife Jane, and Bruce and his wife Jo, are my partners in Billy Spellbound. Sean Tarry Racing also kept a share. He enjoys his racing and runs on strongly and stays well so is well suited to the race. But it is likely that Winter Greeting will get the preference for our ticket.”

Royal Aussie is still top of the WSB R7.5 million Gold Rush Log (Wayne Marks).

Unbeaten Winter Greeting Moves Up Gold Rush Log

The only change on the WSB R7,5 million Gold Rush log this week was the unbeaten Sean Tarry-trained Winter Greeting’s making a first appearance on the log in joint 19th place.

See the Gold Rush Log below:

Last season’s WSB Cape Fillies Guineas winner Chansonette skips the Grade 1 Cartier Paddock Stakes on Saturday after a disappointing last outing, but is entered in the Grade 1 Majorca Stakes, which she only just failed to win last year. (Wayne Marks)

Cape Flying, Majorca And Western Cape Stayers Entries

CAPE FLYING CHAMPIONSHIP (WFA) (Grade 1)(Open to horses at Weight

For Age) R1250000 1000m
6 AFRICAN RAIN (C Bass-Robinson) 60.0
8 ALESIAN CHIEF (C J Lensley) 60.0
5 BARTHOLDI (M/A Azzie) 60.0
9 BARZALONA (C Bass-Robinson) 60.0
22 BATTLE FORCE (P B Muscutt) 60.0
26 BOHICA (M/A Azzie) 60.0
11 CARTEL CAPTAIN (D R Drier) 60.0
15 COSMIC HIGHWAY (D Kannemeyer) 60.0
2 GIMME A PRINCE (D Kannemeyer) 60.0
1 ISIVUNGUVUNGU (P B Muscutt) 60.0
13 MASTER ARCHIE (M/A Azzie) 60.0
16 MR COBBS (C Bass-Robinson) 60.0
25 MUFASA (B Crawford) 60.0
24 RESONATE (C Bass-Robinson) 60.0
14 RIO QUERARI (J S Snaith) 60.0
20 SUN DAZED (C Bass-Robinson) 60.0
10 SUPREME WARRIOR (M/A Azzie) 60.0
19 SURJAY (B Crawford) 60.0
17 BELLA CHICA (A B Fortune) 57.5
3 IPHIKO (M F De Kock) 57.5
27 PRINCESS CALLA (S G Tarry) 57.5
18 SHEELA (M/A Azzie) 57.5
7 CRUISE CONTROL (G D Smith) 56.5
4 HAMMIES HERO (C Bass-Robinson) 56.5
12 HITHEMHARDSUNSHINE (A E Sands) 56.5
21 TROMPIE (V H Marshall) 56.5
23 WE'RE JAMMING (J S Snaith) 56.5

MAJORCA STAKES (WFA) (Grade 1)(For Fillies and Mares
at weight for age) R1000000 1600m
3 CAPTAIN'S RANSOM (J S Snaith) 60.0
6 CHANSONETTE (W A Nel) 60.0
2 DESERT MIRACLE (M F De Kock) 60.0
8 GOING UP (C Bass-Robinson) 60.0
7 MARINA (C Bass-Robinson) 60.0
10 PRINCESS CALLA (S G Tarry) 60.0
11 SANTA MARIA (C Bass-Robinson) 60.0
4 SILVER DARLING (J S Snaith) 60.0
13 BONIKA (J S Snaith) 55.0
9 CIAO BELLA (J S Snaith) 55.0
1 GOLDEN HOSTESS (C Bass-Robinson) 55.0
14 HAPPY CHANCE (B Crawford) 55.0
12 MAKE IT SNAPPY (B Crawford) 55.0
5 MISS MARGUERITE (P Steyn) 55.0

WESTERN CAPE STAYERS (Grade 2)(Open to horses aged 3
years or older) R500000 2800m
17 AIRWAYS LAW (W A Nel) 58.0
5 ARCTIC DRIFT (C Bass-Robinson) 58.0
7 CHEWBACA (W A Nel) 58.0
21 CROME YELLOW (W A Nel) 58.0
12 DUBAI LIGHTS (V H Marshall) 58.0
20 FIND ME UNAFRAID (G D Smith) 58.0
11 NEBRAAS (S G Tarry) 58.0
16 ONE WAY TRAFFIC (J S Snaith) 58.0
10 REX UNION (D Kannemeyer) 58.0
6 SHANGO (S G Tarry) 58.0
15 SILVER HOST (J S Snaith) 58.0
18 SUPER SILVANO (B Crawford) 58.0
19 SPARKLING WATER (M F De Kock) 57.5
8 BARATHEON (P Botha) 56.5
3 MASTER REDOUTE (W A Nel) 56.5
14 NAVY STRENGTH (J S Snaith) 56.5
13 SALVATOR MUNDI (J S Snaith) 56.5
4 SENSO UNICO (V H Marshall) 56.5
2 THEFUTUREISBRIGHT (J S Snaith) 56.5
9 EVENING PRIMROSE (G van Zyl (Jnr)) 54.0
1 COSMIC EVENT (J S Snaith) 50.0

Ormond Ferraris after another victory.

Dave Mollett’s Review Of Ormond Ferraris’ Autobiography

Turf Talk provided their review of the autobiography yesterday after an enjoyable read over the holiday period and veteran journalist Dave Mollett wished to add his thoughts.

Dave Mollett

So your father or uncle was unimpressed with the shirt you bought him for Christmas.

Never mind you can save the day by giving him the book “Thoroughly” – a fascinating read of the outstanding career of trainer Ormond Ferraris as told to top scribe, Charl Pretorius.

As Alec Hogg says in the foreword, “It is classic Ormond Ferraris, offered without apology or embellishment. Because that’s his way. He always told it as he sees it.”

That said, Mr Ferraris had an aura of unapproachability about him. Few – except his family – got close to him in his long career.

Indeed, few would have attempted the project of writing a book on the Turffontein trainer.

But Charl P has always been up for the challenge.

He must have wondered whether he’d get close to the trainer who wasn’t exactly going to be called upon to do a comedy act at the London Palladium.

Readers are likely to find themselves going back to reread chapters as there are several which will be of particular interest to those who are now elderly but were around between 1970 and 2000 when the racing scene was pretty much a soap opera.

I was particularly fascinated with the chapter regarding the 1975 Durban July when Gatecrasher interfered with the fancied Ferraris runner, Distinctly, with the sort of foul that would have got a red card in the Premier League.

Much to the dismay of Gatecrasher’s trainer, Herman Brown, and myself – the red card came out and Gatecrasher was demoted. Viewing the film, it was obvious the stewards had no option but to change the result.

Of course, of particular interest to me is the chapter which deals with my involvement with the Gerald Turner case and Mr Ferraris’ attempt to have me deported. What he didn’t know is that I had influential businessman, Gerald Jaffee, in my corner.

What stands out in the book is the fact that the Turffontein trainer managed to get the best out of so many top horses. To do this you have to have a special talent – few will dispute the fact that Ormond Ferraris had just that.

Rascallion is second favourite for Saturday’s Antonij Rupert Wyne Premier Trophy (Candiese Lenferna).

Anthonij Rupert Wyne Premier Trophy G2 A Wide-open Affair

Cape Racing

Two high class horses recovering after serious injuries, Rascallion and Universal, will try rehabilitating their careers in the Anthonij Rupert Wyne Premier Trophy over 1800m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth.

Both ran second in their respective Derby’s. Rascallion to Linebacker in 2021 and Universal to re-opposing, temperamental talent, Pomp and Power in 2022 before setbacks scuppered their ambitions. But their recent efforts after long lay-offs are sufficiently encouraging, and they rate as principal contenders for Grade 2 honours here in preparation for an even bigger upcoming challenge – the WSB Cape Town Met.

Gem King has tested trainer Piet Steyn’s horsemanship skills due to niggling unsoundness, but he is moving better again and can build on fine wins during the Winter Series when stylishly accounting for Future Prince, then Winchester Mansion over this course and distance back in May.

Silvano’s Timer is another that could get involved. He found draw 16 insurmountable in the Peninsula Handicap but prior to that excusable effort he ran way above his official rating not far off Jet Dark in the Cape Mile, then was dominant when giving weight and sidling by Somerset Maugham over this c & d in November.

In addition to the controlling speed, Pomp and Power (more like it last time) trainer Justin Snaith saddles old boy/established G1 veteran Do It Again; last out winner, Nexus who gets on ever so well with jockey Strydom; Warrior and the returning, fine stayer, Silver Host.

Best of this tag team could be Warrior who rates the equal of Silvano’s Timer on collateral form from a November duel. However, jock Grant van Niekerk will need to somehow conjure up a good trip from draw 13 – no simple task.

Future Prince got close to Gem King during the Winter Series but has been less inspiring since a layoff whilst Airways Law has not been a factor since scoring in the Cup Trial at Greyville in June, though Andre Nel should have him fitter now and notably, he is 2/2 second up after a break.

Marathon runner, Nebraas needs an extra lap to get involved and seems a forlorn hope in this 13- strong field.

Royal Victory romps to victory in the Tony Ruffell (JC Photos).

Royal Victory’s Effortless Tony Ruffell Win Boosted The 3Yo Crop

The Nathan Kotzen-trained Royal Victory, wearing first-time blinkers, toyed with his rivals in the Grade 3 Tony Ruffell Stakes over 1400m at Turffontein Standside on Monday and inadvertently gave Charles Dickens a boost ahead of his next big test in Saturday’s Grade 1 wfa L’Ormarins King’s Plate.

The 111 merit-rated Pathfork gelding was held up in midfield behind a slow pace in the small five horse field and cruised to the front still on a tight hold under S’Manga Khumalo.

He never came off the bit but stretched further and further clear to win by 3,75 lengths.

It was not a vintage field and 93-rated Aravidicio finished second.

However, it was the manner of the victory which made it impressive.

Royal Victory was bridesmaid to Cousin Casey as a juvenile, finishing a 0,90 length second to him in the Grade 2 Durban Golden Horseshoe over 1400m and a 2,10 length second to him in the Grade 1 Premiers Champion Stakes over 1600m.

He followed that up by finishing a 1,75 length third to Anfields Rocket and Shoemaker in the Grade 3 Graham Beck Stakes over 1400m, and a 2,50 lengths fourth to Union Square and Shoemaker in the Grade 2 Jonsson Workwear Dingaans.

All of those horses mentioned who have beaten him were thrashed by Charles Dickens in the Hollywoodbets Cape Guineas.

The three-year-old crop has been spoken about as being out of the ordinary, something which often happens in the first half of the season, but this time they are living up to it.

Royal Victory’s time was slightly slower than the winner of the subsequent Grade 3 Three Troika Stakes, the Candice Dawson-trained Miss Cool (What A Winter).

It was a good training feat by Dawson, because the former Paul Peter-trained SA Nursery winner is on the small side and was the only one in the field carrying a 2kg Grade 2 penalty. Given a fine ride by Muzi Yeni She produced the strong finish she was known for when trained by Peter and beat the promising Lucky Houdalakis-trained Kinky Boots (Master Of My Fate) by a length.

Another former Paul Peter inmate, the Sean Tarry-trained Bless My Stars, who was beaten just 0,35 lengths into third in the Grade 1 Thekwini Stakes, finished a head behind Kinky Boots in third place.

Miss Cool has put her hand up for the Grade 2 Wilgerbosdrift Gauteng Fillies Guineas to be run on February 4.

Later, the progressive Johan Janse van Vuuren-trained five-year-old gelding Puerto Manzano put his hand up as a Hollywoodbets Durban July candidate, or perhaps even a WSB Met contestant, when following his WSB Summer Cup win by carrying topweight to victory in the Grade 3 London News Stakes over 1800m.

The rangy Argentinian-bred took a while to build up as usual in the straight, which is obviously going to be a concern in the July, but once into top gear his long-stride carried him to a cosy 0,40 length victory over the useful Electric Gold, to whom he gave 9kg.

The picture gives a clue to today’s question’s answer.

Today’s Question

Which horse ran the fastest official time in King’s Plate/Queen’s Plate history?

Answer at the bottom of the newsletter.

Click Here To See Vaal Classic Fields, Thursday

NB Please wait a few seconds for fields to appear.

Mother Russia’s 2011 L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate time was officially the second fastest in the big race’s history (Picture: Charles Faull).

ANSWER TO TODAY’S QUESTION:

The Mike Bass-trained Counter Action (Complete Warrior) stopped the clock in 96,2 seconds in the 1995 Queen’s Plate, which is the fastest recorded time in the famous race’s history.

The 96,46 time in 2011 of the Mike de Kock-trained Mother Russia (Windrush) is the second fastest time and Jet Dark’s (Trippi) 96,56 seconds last year is third fastest.

Turf Talk Newsletter – 4 January 2023