Turf Talk Newsletter – 15 April, 2025

Erupt Is Prolific At Present

Shoot The Rapids (Erupt) holds on courageously to take the Highland Night Cup. (Candiese Lenferna Photography)

Cape Breeders

Maine Chance Farms’ dual G1 winning stallion Erupt has had a good time of it over the last few days.

Not only did Erupt gelding Shoot The Rapids land Sunday’s World Sports Betting Highland Night Cup (Non-Black Type) but Erupt filly Happy Analia won the eighth race on that Hollywoodbets Scottsville card and on Tuesday at the Vaal he scored another double.

Runner up in both the 2024 G3 DStv Gold Vase and G3 World Pool Gold Cup, classy four-year-old Shoot The Rapids claimed his third career win with a courageous performance in Sunday’s R185 000 contest.

Trained by Frank Robinson, the Craig Zackey partnered Shoot The Rapids bested the front running Cape Eagle to win by a long neck. A tilt at both this season’s G3 Lonsdale Stirrup Cup and G3 Gold Cup appear to be on the cards for Shoot The Rapids.

Bred by Wynnholme Stud, the gelded son of Erupt took his earnings to R526,594 with his victory in the Highland Night Cup.

Shoot The Rapids, who is out of the Modern Day mare Rapid Flow, was an R80 000 buy from the 2022 November Two Year Old Sale.

Erupt struck again when his daughter Happy Analia ran out a game winner of Sunday’s WSB Race with the Best Class C Stakes (1000m).

Trained by Tienie Prinsloo, the Nothemba Mlonzi bred four-year-old was rewarded for a pair of runner up finishes in her two previous starts with a hard-fought win.

Happy Analia, who is out of the Toreador mare Shayna, has won four of 32 starts.

The blue blooded Erupt has enjoyed a great run of form over the past few days.

On Saturday, Erupt’s classy son Mount Pinatubo ran second in the Mythical Flight Sprint (Non-Black Type) at Turffontein, while one day earlier, Erupt’s three-year-old son Mister Speaker won the Derby Plate at Fairview.

Then on Tuesday at the Vaal Erupt struck with the promising Brett Webber-trained three-year-old filly Blind Ambition, who made it two wins and a second since relocating from the Cape to the Highveld, and in the next race his Tony Peter-trained four-year-old filly Kisshoten won on her Highveld debut.

From one of the best families in the stud book, Erupt’s fourth dam is the mighty Fanfreluche, whose numerous high-class descendants include such champion sires as Encosta De Lago, Flying Spur and Holy Roman Emperor.

Fanfreluche also ranks as the fifth dam of G1VRC Coolmore Stud Stakes/G1VRC Lightning Stakes winner Home Affairs, who has made a sensational start to his stud career.

A son of I Am Invincible, Home Affairs made headlines this year when yearling colts sired by him topped both the Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale and the Inglis Australian Easter Yearling Sale.

Sarah Whitelaw's National Yearling Sale Highlights

Picture: The amazing Vercingetorix was leading sire again.

Sarah Whitelaw

Last week’s National Yearling Sale saw more than 40 yearlings fetch R1 000 000 or more. Three lots made R3 000 000 or more, while 14 yearlings fetched R2 000 000 plus.

With an aggregate of R171.975 million achieved, and the sales’ average price reaching R563 853, the results underlined the strength of the catalogue as well as the strength of the current buying bench.
Both proven and unproven stallions enjoyed success at this year’s National Sale, with first-year sire Malmoos having yearlings making up to R1 400 000.

As per every sale, a few sires and matriarchs really stood out, although it remains to be seen quite where the value buys lay at the 2025 National Yearling Sale. While Rafeef provided the R4 250 000 sales topping colt and enjoyed excellent overall results, he was not the only stallion to make his presence felt, with the following horses all making their presence felt at the National Sale.

VERCINGETORIX: For the third straight year, Vercingetorix was the Leading Sire by Aggregate at the National Yearling Sale. Currently the king of the South African sale ring, Vercingetorix had 25 of his 26 yearlings on offer fetch R35.875 million, with Vercingetorix’s NYS yearlings averaging an impressive R1.435 million. Putting this into perspective, the average price at this year’s sale was R563 852!

Himself a graduate of the 2011 National Sale, Vercingetorix had seven yearlings make R2 000 000 or more, and a total of 16 yearlings make at least R1 000 000. His top lot was the filly (Lot1) out of G1 Garden Province Stakes/G3 Prix du Cap winner Zarina who made R3 250 000.

Remarkably, Vercingetorix, whose yearlings have made up to R9 000 000 in 2025, not only topped the Sires table at this year’s National Sale, but also the Sires table at the 2025 Summer Sale and the first day of the 2025 March Yearling Sale.

MALMOOS: If early results in the sales ring are anything to go by, then Malmoos has made a great start to his stud career. The Triple Crown winning son of Captain Al, whose champion son One World has made such a great start to his stud career, ended the 2025 National Sale as fifth Leading Sire by Aggregate. Malmoos had all 19 of his yearlings offered sell for a total of R10.15 million, with the Malmoos yearlings averaging R534 211. The Ridgemont sire’s top priced lot was a colt (Lot 145) out of the stakes placed Duke Of Marmalade mare Je Ne Sais Quoi who was knocked down for R1 400 000. Malmoos, who is bred on similar lines to promising young sire Erik The Red, had a total of three yearlings make at least R1 000 000.

TRIPPI: While he may have been represented by his final yearlings in 2025, there is no sign that Trippi’s influence, albeit as a broodmare sire, is on the wane. Two of the top six priced yearlings sold at this year’s National Yearling Sale were produced by daughters of the former champion sire. Trippi’s daughter Spring Break, who won four races and was narrowly beaten into second in the 2019 G2 Haval Motors South Africa Umkhomazi Stakes, is a full-sister to G1 SA Filllies Sprint winner October Morn, and Spring Break’s Rafeef colt October Reef (Lot 295) was sold for R2 500 000.

The regally bred Dance At Dawn, a winning full-sister to Trippi’s G1 SA Fillies Sprint winning daughter and outstanding producer Real Princess, had a Vercingetorix colt make R2 400 000 at the sale.

Trippi is also broodmare sire of the top-class US sires Liam’s Map and Not This Time, both of whom likely to be represented by runners in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

PROMISEFROMMYHEART: While champion Promisefrommyheart may have had a relatively brief stud career, the daughter of Elliodor continues to make her presence felt on the South African studbook. Promisefrommyheart’s influence was well and truly felt at the 2025 National Yearling Sale.

Her highly successful sire son Master Of My Fate is the sire of G1 Garden Province Stakes winner Zarina, whose Vercingetorix filly was sold for R3 250 000 at last week’s auction. Promisefrommyheart is also the granddam of Malmoos, whose first National Sale yearlings met with such approval last week. Promisefrommyheart’s daughter Fidelity, a winning three-parts sister to Malmoos, had a Vercingetorix colt (Lot 102) make R1 000 000 at the sale. It is not the first time that Fidelity has enjoyed success at the National Sale -her subsequent G3 Fillies Mile winning daughter Ghaalla was a R5 000 000 buy from the 2017 National Yearling Sale. Promisefrommyheart’s G1 winning half-sister Covenant is the dam of current leading first season sire Erik The Red, who had yearlings make up to R700 000 at the National Yearling Sale.

HALFWAY TO HEAVEN: The dam of three G1 winners thus far, Halfway To Heaven is no stranger to sales ring success. The daughter of Jet Master has had yearlings make up to R7 000 000 and her influence was again felt at this year’s National Sale. Halfway To Heaven’s five time G1 winning son Hawwaam made a big impact at the 2025 National Yearling Sale, with Hawwaam’s 20 yearlings grossing R13.1 million. The champion son of Silvano had yearlings make up to R1 600 000, with Hawwaam’s National Yearling Sale average in 2025 reaching R655 000.

Hawwaam’s full-sister In Limbo also got into the act, with the winning daughter of Silvano’s Rafeef colt Waiting Game (Lot 136) fetching R2 200 000 at the National Yearling Sale.

MISS OCTOBER: Var mares continue to excel as a broodmares, and Miss October rates as one of her sire’s very best broodmare daughters. The winner of five races including the G3 Tommy Hotspur Handicap, and a full-sister to G1 Mercury Sprint winner August Rush, Miss October has produced six winners notably the G1 winners October Morn and Tempting Fate.

Miss October made a big impresison at this year’s National Sale, with her Rafeef colt October Rush (Lot 197) making R4.25 million to top the auction. Miss October’s daughter Spring Break, in turn, was responsible for the Rafeef colt October Reef (Lot 295), a R2 500 000 purchase.

Legend Of Arthur Set To Write New Chapter

Legend Of Arthur entered for the Colorado King

By Mike Moon (The Citizen)

Legend Of Arthur, impressive winner of last month’s SA Derby, is the standout entry for the TAB Colorado King Stakes, a headliner at the Championships Finale at Turffontein on 26 April.

The Sean Tarry-trained colt, currently a shortish 8-1 in early bookmaker betting for the 2025 Durban July, is the only three-year-old male among nominations for the Grade 2, R500,000 event to be contested on weight-for-age terms over 2000m.

He will be the best weighted horse in the race if Tarry accepts to run, which – with an impost of 56.5kg and the No 1 draw – the Randjesfontein conditioner might be inclined to.

Provisional top weight of 60kg goes to Robyn Klaasen’s Purple Pitcher, the 2024 SA Derby champ.

Only 12 names were put forward for the Colorado King, with Tarry supplying five of them.

Senor Santa Stakes
Four entries are females, with trainers doubling up on the Igugu Stakes companion piece for fillies and mares on the day – no doubt fishing for the most advantageous draw. By that measure, Tarry’s fillies World Of Alice and Let’s Go Now could well line up against the boys in the Colorado King – drawing gates 3 and 6, as opposed to 11 and 12 in the Igugu.

Another major feature on Championships Finale day is the Senor Santa Stakes, one of the Highveld’s premier sprint races.

The Grade 2 1160m dash up the Big T straight has attracted healthier numbers, 19 in all.

The star turn in the entry list is Main Defender, one of the top-rated horses in the country, who is trained at Turffontein by Tony Peter.

This speed test will be seen by some as a tad sharp for the 10-time winner, but he is a very classy performer and the best horses can prevail over any distance.

Ranged against Main Defender are his three-year-old stable companions Pistol Pete, Taxi To The Moon and Almond Sea.

ENTRIES
[Draw, name, (age & sex), kgs, MR, equipment, trainer]

TAB Colorado King Stakes:

7 Purple Pitcher (4C) 60 123 BA Robyn Klaasen
8 Future Pearl (5G) 58 115 AT Sean Tarry
10 Hotarubi (4G) 58 112 CAT Sean Tarry
9 Infinite Wonder (7G) 58 103 A Mano Pandaram
11 Navajo Nation (4G) 58 101 A Weiho Marwing
2 La Moohal (4G) 58 96 A Tyrone Zackey
5 Royal Edition (4G) 58 90 A Phillip Labuschagne
1 Legend Of Arthur (3C) 56.5 117 HA Sean Tarry
4 None Other (5M) 55.5 115 A Lucky Houdalakis
6 Let’s Go Now (4F) 55.5 113 BAT Sean Tarry
12 My Soul Mate (4F) 55.5 107 BA Candice Dawson
3 World Of Alice (3F) 52 108 A Sean Tarry

TAB Senor Santa:

3 Main Defender (4G) 62 130 A Tony Peter
8 Melech (5G) 60 119 BAT Roy Magner
13 Mount Pilatus (4G) 58 112 BA Fanie Bronkhorst
9 Pistol Pete (3C) 56 115 A Tony Peter
15 Truth (3G) 56 115 A Candice Dawson
6 Chocolate Soldier (3G) 56 114 HA Corne Spies
7 Dreamland (4G) 56 109 BAT Lucky Houdalakis
11 Quantum Theory (5G) 56 108 CA Robbie Sage
14 Mrs Browning (5M) 55.5 113 A Sean Tarry
17 Taxi To The Moon (3C) 54 110 A Tony Peter
18 Chyavana (6G) 54 104 BA J A Janse van Vuuren
16 Magic Tattoo (5G) 54 104 BAT Sean Tarry
10 Almond Sea (3F) 53.5 112 A Tony Peter
19 Chasing Happiness (4F) 53.5 109 A J A Janse van Vuuren
4 Time Fo Orchids (5M) 53.5 109 BA e J A Janse van Vuuren
2 Mia Moo (4F) 53.5 108 A Sean Tarry
5 Elegant Ice (4F) 53.5 107 HAT Lucky Houdalakis
1 Silver Tudor (5G) 52 96 AT Sean Tarry
12 Impact Investor (3G) 52 76 A Robyn Klaasen

Garrix Raised Two Points To 109

Picture: Garrix has been raised to a 109.

Handicapping Ratings Update (NHA Press Release)

VARIETY CLUB MILE (Grade 3)

GARRIX’S merit rating increased from 107 to 109 after winning the Grade 3 Variety Club Mile over 1600m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Monday.

Handicappers used GALLIC DREAM, who finished third, as the line horse for the race, meaning his rating remained unchanged at 101.

The only other rating increase was given to the runner-up, LET IT BE SAID, who was elevated from 100 to 104.

Two horses received slight rating reductions. BILLY BOWLEGS, who failed to confirm his 115-rating following a layoff, was dropped to 114. Similarly, ZAPATILLAS had a marginal drop from 117 to 116.

SWEET CHESTNUT STAKES (Listed)

BE MERRY was given a rating increase from 97 to 104 after her victory in the Listed Sweet Chestnut Stakes over 1400m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth.

The fourth-place finisher, GOLD POKER GAME, was designated as the line horse for assessing this race, which means her rating remains unchanged at 104.

The runner-up, CALLMEGETRIX, was adjusted from 94 to 99 based on her performance. She finished 1.6 lengths in front of the 104-rated line horse while carrying 4kg less, which accounts for her rating adjustment.

The only other rating increase went to MY FLOWER FATE, who was the lowest-rated runner in this race. MY FLOWER FATE outperformed expectations when finishing in 6^th position but was given a partial increase from 86 to 89, balancing this standout effort with her overall race profile.

Four horses received decreases of 1-point each. SCARLET MACAW dropped from 111 to 110, GIMMETHATPEARL lowered from 96 to 95, KYALAMI GIRL dropped from 95 to 94 and lastly MISS WORLD reduced to 98 from 99.

Enquiries:

The Handicapping Team

Big Unit Could Be The One

Big Unit has been tipped to win the 6th race. (Picture: Cape Racing)

Graeme Hawkins (Gold Circle)

Cape Racing presents a competitive 10-race programme at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth this afternoon, with several well filled wide-open low-grade races set to test punters to the full. The exception in terms of field size is the richest race on the programme, the sixth race, a Cape B Stakes over 1500m, for which the field has been reduced to just eight runners following the scratchings of Major Master and Future Turn. But their absence does not necessarily make the task of narrowing the list of potential winners any easier.

World of Pleasure is the early market leader at 5/2 and the 3yo son of One World trained by Vaughan Marshall is clearly talented. In his most recent outing over 1400m World Of Pleasure was narrowly denied by Captain West and Sean Veale, who rode a double at the course on Monday, retains the ride. The extra 100m is not necessarily in his favour and being drawn on the outside of the small field is also a slight negative. I prefer the chances of Big Unit whose form is solid and from a good draw the 4yo son of Master Of My Fate will have every chance of recording his third career victory for the in-form combination of Louis Mxothwa and Brett & James Crawford.

Strictly on form Mauritius Kestrel should be comfortably held by World Of Pleasure but this will be his peak run after being rested and gelded and there is definite scope for improvement. Song Of The Moon is an eye-catching 4yo son of What A Winter but the Justin Snaith inmate has shown his best form over more ground. That said, the Snaith/Yeni partnership enjoyed a fruitful day on Monday and Song Of The Moon cannot be lightly discarded. Pas De Nom is a 5-time winner but is not the most reliable around and it’s difficult to assess his chances. Innamorare also tends to be a little inconsistent while Aspect has been below par in his last two starts and World Of Pleasure may be the stable elect. Katsu has not raced since June last year due to a pastern injury and is likely to need this run.

It all adds up to being a tricky race, but I am inclined to take a punt on Big Unit with Mauritius Kestrel and World Of Pleasure his principal dangers.

The second race and opening leg of the Bipot, a Maiden Plate over 1200m, sees the return of the promising Rhydian from the Dean Kannemeyer. The 3yo son of Rafeef was placed in all four starts as a juvenile behind several talented sorts but he has not raced since June last year. Fit and well Rhydian would take a lot of beating but the market may be the best guide to his chances. Ocean Sky showed promise on debut when runner-up behind Dawn’s Early Night in a modest maiden at Hollywoodbets Durbanville last month and has clear scope for significant improvement with the benefit of that run under the belt. The 2yo Day In Day Out also showed ability on his first racetrack appearance and the form of that race has been franked.

The opening leg of the Pick 6, a Class 4 Handicap (F&M) over 1200m, has attracted a full field of 20 runners and the layers have priced up Tanneron as the 6/1 favourite. The only sure-fire way of surviving this leg would be to include the field but such a strategy immediately places the cost of the perm beyond the reach of most budgets, and I will take my chances by banking on Tanneron and hoping for the best. Tanneron was runner-up in her last two starts and has always been highly regarded by Candice Bass-Robinson. Captain’s Destiny should also go well and rates the immediate danger to Tanneron but there are others, too many to mention, with winning claims.

Lady Look Alike should be able to take full advantage of a good draw in the fifth race, a Class 5 (F&M) Handicap over 1400m. Her recent form is encouraging, and the stable is presently in fine form. Tres Chic is ideally course and distance suited and may prove a lively threat with Corne Orffer in the irons. Beer With The Boys has the heavy impost of 64 kgs to carry in the eighth race, a Cape D Stakes over 1600m, but the 4yo son of Silvano is consistent and can be expected to go well from a handy barrier position. His opposition here is largely out of form but with only 53,5 to carry for the services of apprentice Bungane, Summer Night City could be the lurker in the pack.

The ninth race, a Class 4 Handicap over 1600m, has attracted a decent field and the leading lights could be Hoodia, Unicorn Alert and King’s Quest, all of which have shown above average ability. Heal And Soul is lightly raced with plenty of upside and could be a threat from pole position while Touchdown appears to have found his best form and cannot be ignored, despite an awkward draw.

Electric Feels doesn’t know what it is to run a bad race and the 5yo mare could register her fifth career victory in the 10th race, a low-grade Cape D Stakes over 1000m. Over The Atlantic re-opposes here and is weighted to go close while Gravity and Champagne Mac could get into the scrum.

Racing gets under way at 11:55 with a Maiden Juvenile Plate (Fillies) over 1000m and the weather forecast is good. Whatastar and She’s My World are the chief protagonists in the opener with a slight preference for the latter.

Peter Treble, Yeni, Fortune, Katjedi, Habib Doubles

Erupt filly Kisshoten gives Tony Peter a treble and Andrew Fortune a double. (JC Photos)

Tony Peter sent out a treble at the Vaal today and two of them were ridden by Andrew Fortune.

Muzi Yeni, Malesela Katjedi and Calvin Habib also rode doubles.

Malesela Katjedi’s double included a win on the Brett Webber-trained Blind Ambition, a promising three-year-old filly who has two wins and a second in three starts on the Highveld.

Peter is now on 66 wins and has achieved it at a strike rate of 16.34%.

Fortune is on 10 wins at 15.15%.

Yeni is on 114 wins at 13.87%.

Habib is on 62 wins at 8.99%.

Katjedi is on 14 wins at 3.95%.

Craig Zackey leads the jockeys championship on 187 wins, nine clear of Richard Fourie and Gavin Lerena, who are both on 178 wins apiece.

Hong Kong Wednesday Formguides and Selections

Power Koepp has been tipped to win the fourth race. (Picture: HKJC)

Tim Carroll (At The Races)

Hong Kong expert Tim Carroll analyses all nine races from Happy Valley on Wednesday, revealing his three best bets

This Wednesday sees a competitive nine-race card from Happy Valley getting underway at 12.40pm SA Time. There are three Class 3’s on the card with race 9, The Chamomile Handicap, over 1 mile, offering prize money of more than £205,000.

Now onto this week’s selections.

Race 1: Class 5 Aster Handicap (11.40am) (5 furlongs)

2 SPICY SO SMART, who’ll be having just his third run this year, arrives having been well held his last three, but to be fair, there were excuses last time when he didn’t have the rub of the green, he now drops down to the bottom grade, and he holds a perfect two from two record at this level. The selection has recorded two wins, the most recent at the start of the campaign, with both of those achieved over 6 furlongs and although both his wins came from the front, I doubt he’ll be able to lead this lot, but horses with form over 6 furlongs tend to run over the minimum trip when there is a strong gallop on offer.

Dangers:

9 Patch Of Watch broke his duck over 6 furlongs on the dirt recently and hasn’t been outside of the top two his last three on that surface, but although he’s yet to prove himself on turf, he has shown improvement recently with Purton taking over from a claimer.

6 Modest Gentleman has a modest overall record, but he was a twice winner over course & trip last season, the most recent from the same mark he now finds himself on, and at the risk of overusing the word, this is a modest contest.

7 Ragnarr is yet to get on the board in eighteen local runs, but he’s run well enough in defeat at his last two over 6 furlongs, which have been his only two spins at this level and given he led both of those & was picked off late, the drop back to the minimum trip for just the second time in his career looks worth a try.

Race 2: Class 4 Bellflower Handicap (12.10pm) (1 mile 3 furlongs)

10 MANAGEMENT FOLKS will be the selection and he should be hard to hold out from toward the foot of the handicap, but a word of warning, he can be tardy out of the gates, as he was last time when runner-up at Sha Tin, and whilst it’s difficult to know what the outcome would have been had he jumped cleanly that day, he was only beaten 0.75 lengths having thrown away several lengths at the start. The David Hall 7yo hasn’t won for a while, but he’s on a workable mark having won from higher in the past and he does stay the trip strongly. They usually ride him cold, but there’s a few here that like to go forward and there’s several trying this trip for the first time which should see a solid gallop, which will hopefully ensure the selection is afforded every opportunity.

Dangers:

1 Midori Giant, who won a maiden over 1 mile on his fourth & final start in Australia, has been unplaced all five local spins, but he hasn’t been beaten far in a few of those, he takes a drop in grade and will find the waters a tad calmer than the Class 3’s he’s been contesting at Sha Tin since arriving in Hong Kong.

8 Hakka Radiance is zero from eighteen in Hong Kong, but he’s run with merit in defeat his only two goes over this trip, including at his penultimate start when runner-up and two spots in front of the selection, although that race did set up kindly for the pace runners.

7 Arthurs Kingdom returns from a short layoff after two well below par efforts, but he had been in good shape prior that winning three times between May and September and is worth including in any exotic type bets.

Race 3: Class 4 Thistle Handicap (12.40pm) (1 mile)

12 SMILING EMPEROR is a low mileage maiden that had shown very little in his first five starts but left that form behind when beaten a lip in picking up the silver over course & trip last time. There must be a slight concern about him running to that level again given it was a tad unexpected, however, on face value it was a solid performance in the context of this. The Jimmy Ting 3yo finished one spot in from of a rival that won in good style at his next start, and the winner was placed from a higher mark at his next run, so the form has some shape. The selection box seated in behind the two leaders last time and with only a moderate gallop on offer, he’s likely to look to do the same here.

Dangers:

8 Lucky Sam Gor is a four-start maiden and whilst he’s yet to hit the frame, he’s yet to finish further than 3 lengths from the winner, he has his first spin at Happy Valley, and they try first-time cheek-pieces.

6 Amazing Award broke his duck over course & trip in January and ran with merit in defeat last time when picking up the bronze having been a tad tight for room in the straight, but they like to ride him cold and ideally, he’d enjoy a stronger gallop than he’s likely to get here.

1 Sure Joyful is still 8lb above his peak winning mark and he does have a tricky draw, but he takes a drop in grade having recorded a win and two placed efforts from his last three goes in the grade, and he’s worth including in any exotic bets.

Race 4: Class 3 Violet (1.10pm) (6 furlongs)

4 POWER KOEPP has been around for a while and the now 7yo has recorded just the five wins from forty-four starts, but he won in good style over course & trip last time when having his first spin for Mark Newnham, a trainer that has a knack of getting a good tune out of tried runners that make their way to his yard. The selection will be moving up in grade under an 8lb penalty, but he carries 12lb less than last time and is still 11lb below his peak winning mark, and whilst he may not get back to that level again, he showed last time that he still a force to be reckoned with.

Dangers:

1 Wings of War, who was unplaced last time but wasn’t beaten far from a tough draw in a stronger race, will enjoy dropping back into Class 3 company and this is the best draw he’s had since winning over course & trip in January from a 4lb lower mark.

3 Ka Ying Victory, who will be having just his third start this year, has won four of his thirteen starts and whilst three of those have been over 5 furlongs, he’ll be having his first spin on the city track which he may enjoy and he’s now just 1lb above his last winning mark.

5 Denfield, who hasn’t been seen since January when back in ninth behind Wings of War, but he’s on 6lb better terms for a 2.5 length defeat that day, he’s perfectly drawn on the paint, and he’s shown in the past that he runs well fresh.

Race 5: Class 4 Ewo Challenge Trophy (Handicap) (1.40pm) (1 mile)

5 SOARING BRONCO has a modest overall record, but he has shown improvement lately, breaking his duck over this trip at Sha Tin two back, before an equally good performance in the defeat finishing runner-up over course & trip last time when having his first spin on the city track. Although he’s had the seventeen starts, he’s tracking in the right direction, and looks a slow burner that could have a more improvement forthcoming. The selection draws down in four and with two pace runners drawn underneath him and the other drawn high, he should end up in behind the leading group with the gun run.

Dangers:

3 Sunday’s Serenade shed his maiden status at start eleve when winning over course & trip last time and although that race set-up for the closers and he goes up 6lb in the handicap, it was his first spin at Happy Valley, and he could have more to offer.

6 Dragon’s Star hasn’t won since December 2023, but it’s a testament to his consistency that he’s just 1lb below his last winning mark, he arrives having finished runner-up over 9 furlongs last time, and he’s well drawn given they usually punch forward.

1 Mighty Commander goes from the top of the handicap, but he takes a drop in grade having won over course & trip from a 4lb lower mark when last seen at this level in January.

Race 6: Class 3 Violet Handicap (2.10pm) (6 furlongs)

6 CRIMSON FLASH, who won a maiden as an odds-on favourite his only start in Australia, has hit the board once in four local starts when runner-up over 5 furlongs at Sha Tin in January, but he has his first spin at Happy Valley having not been beaten far his last few in Class 3’s that looked stronger than this. The selection had a tough run last time, having to work to get across to sit outside the leader, but was only beaten 2.5 lengths, and the start prior that he was fourth in behind Fast Network, who then hacked up by 4 lengths at a level above this. The handicapper drops him 2lb here, first-time blinkers are applied, and Andrea Atzeni, who has ridden twelve winners at the last nine meetings, gets the call up.

Dangers:

3 Eason hasn’t won for nearly two years, but he is now 14lb below his last winning mark having be there abouts recently and he should have all the favours from the low draw.

5 Storming Dragon is a big lump of a horse (1226lbs) that has been unplaced his last three all over 7 furlongs, but he had won two of his previous four starts over this trip, the most recent which came from a 4lb lower mark at Sha Tin from the same draw he has here.

2 Nucleozor, who won all three starts in New Zealand, was unplaced at Sha Tin on his local debut, but that was in a stronger race than this, he’s entitled to be sharper for the run and Purton is a first time booking, but he’ll have to overcome the outside draw.

Race 7: Class 4 Dianthus Handicap (2.45pm) (6 furlongs)

10 LOVING VIBES is a ten-start maiden, but his form has taken an upswing recently and he lands here having been runner-up at his last three, all over this trip at Sha Tin. The Francis Lui 4yo has only been to Happy Valley twice, when unplaced both times at the back end of last year, but he was in no sort of form at the time, and if anything, he should enjoy the tighter layout as he’s no slouch. The selection has been left along after picking up the silver last time, and it’s worth noting that Purton is a first time booking.

Dangers:

1 Fatal Blow, who won over course & trip at just his second start in November, returns after a short layoff having seemingly not seen out the 7 furlongs last time and with genuine excuses the start prior having been planted wide, and he could bounce back from the low draw on his return having looked sharp when runner-up in a recent trial.

2 Know At Heart took six goes to break his maiden status in New Zealand, and he’s yet to hit the frame in five local spins which have all been at Sha Tin, but he takes a drop in grade having contested races than ran deeper than this and he should enjoy having something to aim at given he’s been running through the line without threatening in his races.

6 My Day My Way defied market expectations when picking up the silver over course & trip at just his third start last time and although unwanted in the market that day, and he does have a high draw to contend with, he is a low mileage type with plenty of scope.

Race 8: Class 4 Dianthus Handicap (3.15pm) (6 furlongs)

4 GREAT SPIRIT arrives with a 6lb penalty having recorded his second career win last time when taking out a similar contest over course & trip, which was the first time Andrea Atzeni had been on top (maintains the partnership). He only just got there that night, but it was just his second spin at Happy Valley having gone down short margin the start prior when slightly tight for room, and although this will require a career best, he’s still relatively lightly raced. On paper this should be run at a strong bat with the likes of Mega Bonus (6), Lucky Planet (5) & E Universe (9), all horses that like to punch forward, and with a solid gallop on offer, the race should set up kindly for the selection.

Dangers:

12 World Hero moves up in grade having broken his duck when making all over course & trip at start number ten last time and although he’s been turned over a few times at this level, this is a moderate affair, and he carries 13lb less than last time.

5 Lucky Planet goes up 8lb having won comfortably over course & trip last time and a repeat would see him go close despite the penalty, but both his wins have come from the front, and I’m not convinced he’ll be able to cross Mega Bonus who is drawn on his inside.

10 Noble Go has shown very little in four starts and as such is hard to recommend, but he does represent a leading yard and this will be the first time he’s drawn a low stall, and he might be one to consider for the exotics if you’re looking for a big price runner.

Race 9 Class 3 Chamomile Handicap (3.50pm) (1 mile)

4 EMBRACES was last seen at Happy Valley when winning over course & trip from an 18lb lower mark in December. He followed that up with a near last to first win at Sha Tin, and although turned over in three subsequent starts, he has run with merit in defeat on each occasion and in behind some types that look well above average. He was last seen when runner-up over this trip in a race that has already thrown up some form, whilst the winner is yet to be seen again, the fourth has since gone in, whilst the third was only just touched off as an odds-on favourite at his next start. The selection goes up 2lb for that, but Jerry Chau, who has been on top for both wins, is back on board claiming 2lbs, which sees him go from effectively the same mark.

Dangers:

3 Aestheticism recorded a deserved win over course & trip last time having not enjoyed the best of luck a couple of times this season, and although he goes up 7lb for that, he won in good style last time & once again should get an honest gallop to aim at.

7 Highland Rahy has taken some time to find his local feet but has been in great heart of late and arrives on a three-timer under a 6lb penalty having won his last two over course & trip and whilst he has more on his plate now that he moves up in grade, he carries 14lb less at this level and is likely to get an un contested lead.

1 Noble Pursuit goes from the top of the handicap, but he drops 2lbs which sees him just 4lb above his last win, which was over course & trip last September, and he should have all the favours somewhere in mid division from the low draw.

BETTING ON HONG KONG RACING

Punters can bet into the Hong Kong pools online through Tote.co.uk

WEDNESDAY’S PLACEPOT

Today’s Tote Place Pot will be races 4 through to 9. All up we will be playing 54 combinations (3x3x3x2x1x1), which will cost £5.40 for a 10p stake and so on. Good luck.

LEG 1- 1 WINGS OF WAR 3 KA YING VICTORY 4 POWER KOEPP

LEG 2- 3 SUNDAY’S SERANADE 5 SOARING BRONCO 6 DRAGON STAR

LEG 3- 3 EASON 5 STORMING DRAGON 6 CRIMSON FLASH

LEG 4- 1 FATAL BLOW 10 LOVING VIBES

LEG 5- 4 GREAT SPIRIT

LEG 6- 4 EMBRACES

TIM’S BEST BETS (scale 1-5 points)

12.10pm HAPPY VALLEY

2pts win MANAGEMENT FOLKS

3.15pm HAPPY VALLEY

3pts win GREAT SPIRIT

3.50pm HAPPY VALLEY

1pt win EMBRACES

Today's Question

Who was the second horse to have won the USA Triple Crown while being undefeated in any previous race?

The picture is of the subject

FIELDS, Wednesday, 16 April

Hollywoodbets Kenilworth

Today’s Question Answer

Justify was only the second horse to have won the Triple Crown while previously being undefeated and he is descended from the first to do it, Seattle Slew.

Click here to read about Justify