Turf Talk Newsletter – 14 May, 2025

KZN law graduate and sports fanatic Ian Smith, who was a pupil of the top KZN School Kearsney College, has had an interesting career from a UK base in the legal aspects of sports administration and this inadvertently had a heavy bias towards match-fixing cases from about 2010 onward.

He gave an interesting insight into the techniques used to identify match-fixing as well as race-fixing in horseracing and after a subsequent Turf Talk interview with NHA CEO Vee Moodley it emerged that South Africa’s horseracing authority is right up there with normal worldwide standards when protecting the integrity of our sport.

This is a relevant subject in SA horseracing at present as it was revealed by the NHA that a scrutiny of betting patterns on various platforms would be included in the investigation into the ride of Andrew Fortune on Cherry Oh Baby at Hollywoodbets Greyville last week.

Ian did his articles in England and broke into the sports industry after the 1995 World Cup when representing a few rugby players who wished to turn professional.

However, by the end of 1999 the vast majority of his work was in the sport he most loved, cricket, as he was being given more and more work by the Professional Cricket Association.

He was the only player representative lawyer in worldwide cricket other than Tony Irish when the Hansie Cronje scandal broke and he represented numerous professional cricketers, including school contemporary Andrew Hudson, when the negotiations around the creation of the new anti-corruption code was being drafted by the ICC.

He became increasingly embroiled in cricket and by 2004 he had moved in-house with the Professional Cricket Association as the legal director.

However, after the founding of the IPL and other such leagues there was an explosion of match-fixing cases to the extent that it was virtually the only thing he dealt with and his focus changed from UK domestic cricket to international from 2010 onwards.

From being naive about betting related matters back in 2000 he was an expert on it by the time he left cricket in 2015 and his expertise in this and in sports regulatory matters led to him setting up an organisation which is today called the Esports Integrity Commission.

There was no governance in the rapidly expanding Esports industry and Ian, who was effectively the job title, became a voluntary regulator. The commission dealt with anti-doping and anti-corruption and Ian decided what to investigate and whether somebody was guilty. In much the same way as South African horseracing’s method whereby a jockey or trainer can avoid an inquiry by admitting guilt, the commission only goes to an independent disciplinary panel if the person involved wants to contest the charge.

Ian, who also does a lot of consultancy for traditional sports like football and motor sports, described the process of fishing out match-fixing.

He said, “When bookmakers set up their markets, it is based on an analysis of mountains of historical data. However, the underlying assumption is that the players or the team are doing their best to win. What they don’t want, of course, is a team deliberately trying to lose or manipulate the outcome to win a bet, because ultimately that is money being stolen. So what has happened over time is that because of the incredible volumes of digital data, increasingly you know how the betting on any event is going to behave. So every bookmaker has set up parameters and they use algorithms to check whether the betting stays within those parameters. As soon as the betting pops out of those parameters, they call it either an unusual or a suspicious bet, with suspicious being more highly charged than unusual. Unusual is, for example, let’s say I bet 50 quid a week on tennis and golf and then I put 500 bucks on a football match. That’s unusual and there’s scrutiny of that. But what I did was I set up an information sharing network amongst a large number of betting operators, data analyst companies and law enforcement regulators to create an alert network. So basically any bookmaker or any of the other stakeholders sends us an alert when they see something suspicious or unusual.”

He continued, “We then disseminate that alert to the rest of the network with a question of are you seeing the same thing? Or do you know why the betting’s behaving as it does? Then we get a bunch of responses. The good ones are when some trader can explain why it’s doing what it’s doing and that’s helpful because it means the red flags that are being raised can be lowered. An example would be a horse striding short down to the start.”

He added, “The next step happens if the betting is suspicious and there is no logical explanation, so it then looks like a match fix. An example would be a suspicious bet whereby Team A is going to lose match two of the best of three and duly does so. We then get an expert to analyse the match and to form an opinion on whether the player was doing his best or whether, in Esports as an example, there were moments in the game he was deliberately losing by deliberately getting killed or missing shots.”

He continued, “If the answer to that is yes, the play is suspicious, I can proceed on that information alone sometimes if it’s rock solid. But the next usual stage is to try and link the people who placed the suspicious bets to the player that played suspiciously and that’s a separate intelligence investigatory process. I basically use software where I put in the name of a player and then put in the name of the bettor and hope that when the software looks through the internet they find a connection between the two, which is often something like they went to school or university together or they’re Facebook friends or they follow each other on Twitter. Any kind of link then gives me a way forward in terms of the investigation. If there is a link, then generally we’re going to prosecute the player. But that’s just the beginning of the prosecution part of the case.”

Ian said the process used in horse racing was exactly the same.

He said, “Obviously there are different doping offences because you’re doping the horse and there are different cheating offences, but effectively the evidence trail is exactly the same. It’s an alert from the bookmaker, the steward, and then various bodies, but particularly every horseracing body has an integrity function, and horse racing has had them for years. They’re quite well developed. A lot of the practice in traditional sport originated from horse racing, which was to then look at the betting data exactly as I’ve described, and then kind of go, okay, did the jockey ride to the bet? Can you reasonably say when you review the video of the race that he or she held the horse back or whatever? You can compare it to the jockey’s normal riding style as well. Again, you’ve got mountains of data, particularly from experienced jockeys, and then of course you get the confidential data from the betting company who take the bets. You then do exactly as I described, you try and link the bettors to the jockey, for example. Within horse racing you have these really cool powers to confiscate phones, investigate bank accounts, and all of this stuff. It’s actually easier to link the bettors to the jockeys in horse racing than it is in Esport, because whilst I have the power to demand mobile phones and all of this from participants, every time I’ve tried that, the players just tell me to get lost. I end up banning them, but there’s not much more I can do. If a jockey wants to carry on being a jockey, he’s got to hand it over.”

Ian Smith has a wealth of experience in Sports Governance and regulation and is currently an integrity commissioner for Esports. (Picture: Supplied)

Ian was asked whether the suspicion ever starts with an action on the racecourse as happened in the Andrew Fortune case.

He said, “I would say less than 50-50, to be honest. In suspicions that are initiated by the ride, a significant percentage of those lead to no evidence in the betting being found that it was fixed. And then it just becomes a riding offence and the jockey could be charged with unprofessional riding.”

The Fortune case is yet to be concluded, but his ride has drawn a wide range of opinions due to his soft style of riding. He has never been hard on a horse throughout his career. He did appear to be caught napping though, but unless the betting patterns are found to be suspicious he might just be charged with unprofessional riding.

Ian went on to mention another problem in identifying match fixing or race fixing and this is what is known as mobile operators. These unregulated bookmakers take bets by cellphone and have hundreds of cellphones in operation. The bettors have accounts that go up and down per bet and payouts are in cash. These bets are almost impossible to trace unless you have a whistle blower. The biggest of these mobile operators are often controlled by gangsters and are as sophisticated as the big bookmakers like Ladbrokes, Coral or William Hill.

Illegal betting through unlicensed operators creates a huge dilemma and perpetrators need to be dealt with accordingly. The integrity of the event or race result may have no legitimacy. This is totally unfair to the broader betting public.

Another problem is betting syndicates. One person putting on a £100,000 bet on a horse race is going to raise a red flag, but 100 people each putting on a £1000 bet does not raise any suspicion.

These syndicates have anything from ten people to 1000 people and then on their behalf they will have a fixer in different sports. For example somebody who has a connection to a certain sports team.

In cricket the fix is often just on a tiny section of the game and this is called spot fixing. A bowler could, for example, be bribed to give away a certain amount of runs in one over or even to bowl a no-ball at a given time.

Ian said match-fixing or race-fixing is mostly done with coercion and cooperation, it is very rare for there to be a threat of violence.

Vee Moodley, CEO of the National Horse Racing Authority of South Africa (NHA), confirmed that the NHA have MOUs (Memorandum Of Understanding) and MOAs (Memorandum Of Agreement) with local and international bookmakers and international Betting Exchanges. The alert system is in place in much the same way as explained by Ian Smith above.

Betfair is illegal in South Africa, but in fact contrary to the fears that it would lead to more corrupt activity it has proved to be one of the best tools for weeding out corruption because those who are laying bets, for example, can be identified and relatively easily linked to a corrupt race or match, if relevant. Ian Smith has in fact on occasion even linked illegal betting operations to suspicious activity through Betfair, because these illegal operations often lay off bets on Betfair. The SA authorities should hence consider unbanning Betfair.

The first Hollywoodbets Durban July log is out and does not contain any major surprises.

However, there is one question which should be asked.

Olivia’s Way could be considered unlucky to not be in the top 20 having won a Gr 2 event over 2000m and been a Gr 1 runner up over 1800m and she was fourth in the Gr 1 SA Derby. She is also higher rated than the Gr 3 winner Selukwe, but the latter won a traditional Hollywoodbets Durban July pointer, the WSB 1900, and that explains his lofty position on the log.

Some of those who have not won a race as high as a Gr 2 but who are above Olivia’s Way are there because they are considerably higher merit rated through close up places in races like the WSB Met.

However, Pomodoro’s Jet’s biggest career wins are in a Listed race over 1600m and in the Grand Heritage over 1475m and in his only two races beyond a mile he finished third in an 1800m handicap off an 84 merit rating in a Middle Stakes race nearly three years ago and he finished a 3,20 length fifth in last year’s Gr 3 Splashout 2200 carrying just 52,5kg. The log panellists probably put him in the top 20 due to his highly progressive profile. However, some would say he should prove himself over ground before being put ahead of the like of the proven middle distance filly Olivia’s Way.

The log is shown n below.

I Am Regal (closest) gets up to dead-heat with Sneak Preview over 2000m at The Vaal last September (JC Photos).

The highest rated race at the Vaal Classic meeting on Thursday is the eighth, a MR 85 handicap for fillies and mares over 2000m, and it could be won by I Am Regal.

I Am Regal has run over this trip a few times before and has won one of them and never been far off in the others. She has dropped to a mark of 78, which is three points lower than her highest winning mark, which was over 1800 in October last year. The last time she ran over a midddle distance she was just 4,30 lengths behind DoItWithdiamonds and that is no disgrace as the latter has won four times this season. I Am Regal jumps from a fair draw of four and will be ridden by the ever improving Malesela Katjedi. Dimako’s Jet is a consistent sort who should make a bold bid over an ideal trip with Gavin Lerena up, but on her last meeting with I Am Regal she is a whopping 6kg worse off for a mere 2,50 length beating. Key Worker is in fair form and could earn if able to overcome a wide draw. Avoontoast is well drawn over a suitable trip and Piere Strydom will give her every chance. She has to overcome a seven point raise, but is only 6kg worse off with I Am Regal for a 5,50 length beating on their last meeting, although that was over 1800m and I Am Regal has beaten her over this trip before. One Religion can do better than her last start, so can’t be ignored.

In the first leg of the Pick 6 over 1000m Summer Winter was beaten 0.3 lengths by Eight Hats last time out and the latter came out and beat a fair field next time out, so she is the one to beat. Sunset Warrior has run two good races but looks held by Summer Winter on formlines. Ringho has always been thereabouts and could earn again.

In the fifth race over 1600m Chieftan’s Shield is an improved sort who was first accross the line last time but lost it on an objection. He usually finds a good finish and he has a good draw over a suitable trip and has the eyecatching booking of Craig Zackey. Brigham has improved with blinkers and should be involved if able to produce his best over a step down in trip which should suit as the 2000m might have just been a touch far last time. Phil The Fluter is knocking on the door and will also be a big runner. Miss Takes has shown some fair form and can earn from a good draw. Molotov Cocktail ran in blinkers on debut which does not usually augur well but he was a close up fifth and should be in the shake up with Gavin Lerena up, albeit from a tricky draw.

In the sixth over 2000m Alakanani has improved since the headgear has been removed and if producing his last run could be the one to beat. Gamer has become more relaxed and has thus become consistent and over this suitable trip with Gavin Lerena up he should be right there. Blurred Vision won well when stepped up to this trip last time and despite a six point higher mark might be able to be involved again from a good draw. The Merciful was not disgraced last time over this trip and could earn from a plum draw with a 2.5kg claimer up. Bob Lee Swagger won well over this trip when cheekpieces were changed to blinkers and he could be in the shake up again off a four point higher mark, although he does have a tricky draw again.

In the seventh over 2000m Wagram ran well first time out the Maidens over 1600 metres and on pedigree should enjoy this trip, but does have a tricky draw to overcome. Ideal Future is a consistent, long-striding sort who is capable of running on well and she goes well for this 4kg claimer. Rosy Lemon is a capable sort who will enjoy the step back down to the trip and Khumalo could get the best out of her. Kiss Of Fire will enjoy the step back to this trip, but this is her second run after a long lay off. Red Sparrow won a workriders maiden by 10,50 lengths last time so her 73 merit rating is reasonable.

In the ninth over 1500m Calida is a consistent sort and from pole position over an ideal trip is the one to beat under Gavin Lerena. Libeccio is not the most consistent, but he is capable and is off an attractive merit rating over a suitable trip, but he does have a wide draw. Kotinos has a wide draw, but is a capable sort and Piere Strydom will help his cause. Written In Stone is an evergreen sort who can always be relied on to run a good race even from wide draws like this one. After Hours is drawn well over a suitable trip and still well handicapped on his best form.

In the first leg of the Bipot over 1600m Chronicle King looks one of the best bets on the card from pole position with Lerena up.

 

In the first leg of the PA Matcha Mint looks the one to beat despite a tricky draw, but Witching Hour could be dangerous after a good debut and with Lerena up from a good draw.

In the first race over 1000m Hurricane Power is by Vercingetorix and is a three-parts sister to Ablaan, who won both of bis first two starts, so she is an interesting newcomer, although the draw of one might be tricky and Empress Wu and Bilingual could challenge her.

In the last race over 1000m One Party and Sylvan Warrior make most appeal.

Equus Horse Of The Year Dave The King (Picture: Candiese Lenferna). 

On Sunday at Hollywoodbets Scottsville the reigning Equus Horse Of The Year Dave The King makes a comeback after a six month layoff and Callan Murray will be aboard.

Murray has been based in Australia since July 2022 and it is not clear whether this is a permanent move back to SA or temporary.

He has seven rides for Mike de Kock and one for Fabian Habib on Saturday at Turffontein Standside and on Sunday at Hollywoodbets Scottsville he has three rides for Michael Roberts, two for De Kock and one for Gareth van Zyl.

Dave The King has not run since two runs in November in which he finished 19 lengths back in the Gr 2 Allied Steelrode Onamission Charity Mile and then 12,25 lengths back in a Pinnacle event.

On Sunday he runs in a Class A race over 1500m and from a good draw of three and presuming he is close to peak fitness he will make a bold bid. If close to his best he will be infront or handy and will go for home a lomg way out as he has a famously long run in.

Royal Victory will be using this as a preparation race on his way to his chief target, the Hollywoodbets Durban July.

Deryl Daniels will be aboard from a tricky draw of eight, but he should be staying on well after likely being dropped out.

Epsom Derby favourite, the unbeaten The Lion In Winter (picture: Sky Sports Racing) 

Andy Stephens (Racingtv.com)

Aidan O’Brien has dominated the traditional Betfred Derby trials but he’s saving the best for last, or at least so it seems, with The Lion In Winter making his eagerly awaited return in the Al Basti Equiworld Dante Stakes at York on Thursday.

Unbeaten, lauded, and with the form of his record-breaking win in the Acomb Stakes last year having a glow, The Lion In Winter heads the market for the premier Classic at Epsom next month despite nine months on the sidelines and any number of his stablemates having advanced their claims in recent weeks.

The sponsors are among those who make him no bigger than 11-4 to prevail on June 7 and, at first glance, the Derby favourite showing up in the principal trial for the big race makes perfect sense.

But it’s not that straightforward. Not at all, in fact, and the stats, coupled with an O’Brien bulletin on Tuesday, will do little to settle the nerves of his supporters.

Trainers are creatures of habit and O’Brien is no different. He likes sticking to his tried and tested blueprints. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

For example, his ten winners of the 2000 Guineas have all been making their seasonal reappearances.

His ten Derby winners? They’ve auditioned in the 2000 Guineas (four times), Derby Trial at Leopardstown (twice), Chester (twice), Lingfield (once) and The Curragh (once, when the Coronavirus Pandemic turned things upside down).

It seems clear that he does not regard the Dante as the best stepping stone to Epsom and rarely, if ever, asks his principal candidate to line up there. Instead, he generally sends something from his reserves to represent him on the Knavesmire: a scout or two to check out what the home team have among their defences.

The last of his four winners of the Group Two feature was Cape Blanco, in 2010, but only two of his victors went on to Epsom and neither made any impact.

Since then, O’Brien has had 17 runners in the Dante and all have been beaten. Thirteen have gone off at single-figure odds – four of them being favourites – but the blind faith of punters has been misguided and the money has stayed in the satchels of the bookies.

Perhaps more pertinent, only four of those 17 travelled on to the Surrey Downs, and that fits the overall pattern when it comes to O’Brien and the Dante, with only seven of his 27 runners in the ten-furlong contest going on to run in the Derby.

The Lion In Winter is going to have buck the trends, then, and nobody needs telling that his intended first destination of 2025 was not York.

Had everything gone to plan, then the colt who impressed when winning on his debut at The Curragh before landing the Acomb in a course record time at York in August, would have made his reappearance in the 2000 Guineas.

But in late March O’Brien revealed he might not be ready for Newmarket because he had “taken a little bit of time to come right so he’s a little bit behind the others”.

The first Classic of the season (like last season’s Dewhurst) duly passed by without him, with Ruling Court, who had finished third in the Acomb, taking maximum advantage of his absence.

Twelve days later, the son of Sea The Stars will be back in action, for what is effectively the final Derby trial available. He’s no bigger than 10-11 to preserve his unbeaten record at the expense of ten rivals.

However, putting two and two together, and possibly coming up with five, it feels like O’Brien has wanted/needed every available day to get him tuned up and therefore been left with little option but to run the Derby market leader in a race he has not won for 15 years.

Not even O’Brien dare send a Derby aspirant straight to the race without a prep, even though he has a replica of Tattenham Corner at his Ballydoyle base.

“We’re delighted that it looks like he’s going to make it,” O’Brien said on Tuesday. “We weren’t sure he would – he’s been off a long time. But with the Derby in mind, it was the perfect prep. Obviously, it’s a very good Derby trial.

“There’s two more two days to go, but it looks like he’s going to be fine. He’s going to improve a ton from whatever he does. Hopefully, he’s going to run well and that we’ve enough done with him to help him to run well. It’s going to be very interesting. Hopefully, we have him in a good enough place to show what his potential could be.”

Had time not been an issue, he would have perhaps sent him to Chester, for either the Chester Vase or Dee Stakes. It’s abundantly clear that O’Brien loves giving his potential Classic horses a spin at a track, probably because they must engage their brains quickly and be extra nimble on their feet. He kind of gets two races into them for the price of one.

The Lion In Winter missed the Dewhurst in October plus the 2000 Guineas last month
Lambourn gave the yard an eleventh win in the former last week, while Mount Kilimanjaro gave the stable a twelfth Dee Stakes triumph 24 hours later. Incidentally, O’Brien’s previous Chester Vase winners all went on to run in the Derby, while he had the first three home in 2017, and the trio met again at Epsom.

O’Brien is playing the hand he has been dealt. Similar occurred in 2019, after all, when he dominated the Derby Trials but ended up running the well-touted Japan in the Dante. He was a big drifter in the betting and ran accordingly – plugging on to finish fourth – but he was transformed at Epsom 16 days later, when beaten under a length into third.

The Lion In Winter has got by far the best form heading into Thursday’s race and his pedigree suggests stepping up in trip will also be a positive. And we know the combination of fast ground and York hold no fears for him, and that O’Brien has his team in fabulous order.

However, regarding the trip, O’Brien has issued a note of caution: “You can never be sure,” he said. “He doesn’t work like a mile and a half horse, really. He works like a miler. I know most Sea The Stars do stay, but obviously we’re going to have to wait and see first before we can be really sure of anything.”

Perhaps there’s a bit of marketing talk here. If he goes onto scale the heights over middle distances, O’Brien has also floated the idea of him having lots of speed. It would only enhance his appeal and value as a stallion.

But his days in the breeding sheds remain some way off. First, he’s got to deal with Plan B, without the baggage of knowing that no previous O’Brien Dante runner has gone on to win at Epsom. One thing is for certain: The Lion In Winter is going to have to warm up very quickly over the coming days if he is to put the record straight.

The Paul Gadsby-trained Princess Hannah (Pomodoro) gives Tristan Godden a double (Candiese Lenferna Photography). 

Sean Veale, Serino Moodley and Tristan Godden rode doubles on the Hollywoodbets Greyville poly today.

The surface once again drew widespread praise as if was fair for all horses whether coming from the front, midfield or the back or running down the inside, centre or outside of the track.

Veale goes to 96 wins for the season and has achieved it at a strike rate of 13.73%.

Moodley goes to 51 wins for the season at 10.60%.

Godden is on 41 wins at 10.73%.

Veale leads the KZN Jockeys Championship with 54 wins, with sidelined Rachel Venniker on 46, Craig Zackey on 42, Moodley on 41 and Godden on 39.

The KZN Trainers championship sees Garth Puller on 36 wins, reigning champion Gareth van Zyl on 34, Alyson Wright on 31, Peter Muscutt on 31, Mike Miller on 27, Dean Kannemeyer on 27, Andre Nel on 25, Stuart Ferrie on 24, Michael Roberts on 23 and Paul Lafferty on 21.

Seasons Wit wins comfortably under Lyle Hewitson (Picture: HKJC)

Lyle Hewitson rode a welcome double at Happy Valley on Wednesday that included the night’s feature race and that put him on 21 wins for the season, although he remains in 13th place on the log.

The Hong Kong Jockey Club Report by Leo Schlink said about his two wins:

Seasons Wit (124lb) returned to the winners’ list under Lyle Hewitson to land the Class 3 Choi Wan Handicap (1000m) for Jamie Richards. The winner of four races at Happy Valley in 2023, Seasons Wit reached a career-high rating of 99, but had not won in 21 ensuing starts until tonight.

The Capitalist gelding was given a superb ride by Hewitson, who allowed the five-year-old to settle on the fence midfield before angling into the clear and accelerating sharply.

Hewitson completed a brace aboard Mark Newnham-trained King Lotus (127lb) in the first section of the Class 4 Tin Sau Handicap (1200m).

“Fortunately, I’ve stuck with him (King Lotus) from day one – he’s always given me a nice feel,” Hewitson said. “We thought he would need 1400m, at least, before he wins and we thought he would be a nice miler.

“On debut, he ran a nice race. He got held up over the last few strides, he could have run fourth, and with natural improvement, he showed a bit more today. He’s an uncomplicated horse who’s getting better so the fact he got it right today is pretty impressive.”

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