Fourie Barometer 356 (updated after racing on 12/04/2024)
Fibonacci Is Due A Win
Fibonacci has been tipped to win the competitive race 6, a class 3 handicap over 1600m (Picture: Wayne Marks)
Graeme Hawkins (Gold Circle)
Bankers are at a premium on a very challenging and competitive 10-race programme at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth tomorrow and it may pay to side with the powerful team of Richard Fourie and Brett Crawford in the opening leg of the Pick 6, a Maiden Plate over 1400m. Mont Loisir has finished second in his last two starts over track and trip and seems poised to go one better from a handy draw of two.
That said, this is no one-horse race! The well exposed Greenland comes into the reckoning and may well appreciate stepping back slightly in distance. Water Dragon has had two fair starts to date and appears to have scope for improvement while Groovejet returns from a four-month absence, but showed enough in his first two outings to suggest he could be very competitive. Walk With Me caught the eye with a very promising debut effort and can progress further. But the Pick 6 includes several very open races, where we need to play wide, and I am going to take my chances early with Mont Loisir in the opening leg.
The second leg of the Pick 6 is a Class 4 Handicap (F&M) over 1400m and here they are betting 5/1 the field in the ante-post market, a clear indication of just how trappy this race is. While there are many with winning claims, my each-way vote goes to the topweight Callmegetrix who steps back in trip from an inside gate. She has won her only start over course and distance and should give us a decent run for our money. Another to consider at a big price is Senhora Victoria, although she does have the worst of the draw to overcome.
The sixth race, a Class 3 Handicap over 1600m, is probably the deepest such contest I have seen for a very long time and another “5/1 the field” event. Only in the Western Cape would an MR94 Handicap attract as many quality horses as are carded here and we should be in for a really good race. Fibonacci, not always reliable, has the form and the talent to score but more than half the field have solid winning chances and punters will need to cast their nets very wide. Pomodoro’s Jet, unbeaten over course and distance, would be my tentative top selection but the handicapper may be catching up with him.
The seventh race, a Cape C Stakes (F&M) over 1800m, has attracted a field of ten runners and the consistent Summer Night City gets the vote to score. Her stable companions, Destined to Dance and Eternal Optimist, are not without chances but Basic Maneuvers is perhaps the biggest danger to my selection. Dream Searcher, Cattaleya and recent maiden winner Plum Pudding have done enough to suggest they could have a say in the outcome.
Perhaps we can narrow down our choices in the eighth race, a Class 4 Handicap over 1800m. Prevalence has been knocking loudly at the door and deserves a victory. He rates a fairly confident first selection but all of Ignatius, Join The Dots, Blue Bay, Aberdeen and last-start maiden winner, Voorlopertjie are worth a mention.
The final leg of the Pick 6, a Class 4 Handicap over 1200m, has drawn a full field and The Tinkerman, 661 days without a win, is the weak 9/2 market leader. He has finished runner-up over track and trip in his last two starts and should make another bold bid, but I slightly prefer the chances of Night Tiger for Aldo Domeyer and Candice Bass-Robinson. Night Bomber is worth a second look while the erratic 7-time winner, Fort Red, can never be ignored. Lightly raced Wissa’s On Fire can improve further and the lurker in the pack could prove to be Street Outlaw who is plummeting down the ratings and gets blinkers for the first time.
The first race, a Maiden Juvenile Plate (Fillies) over 1000m, is due off at 12:05 and Duchess Of Paloma could make a winning return after finishing under five lengths behind Little Ballerina in one of the strongest Juvenile races so far this season. Poetic Princess also comes out of a very strong form line while both Scarlet Macaw and Be Merry made pleasing debuts and can step forward.
Just Be Lekker Could Be A Nice Choice
Just Be Lekker reverts to sprints, which have yielded her only two career wins to date (JC Photos)
Turffontein Standside on Saturday hosts the annual Henneman Memorial meeting, which has nine competitive races.
The Non-Black Type Betway Mythical Flight Sprint over 1100m is the headliner and the filly Just Be Lekker could be the one to side with. Her Candice Dawson-trained stablemate Little Ballerina returned from Cape Town with a bang, winning the Gr 2 SA Fillies Nursery last Saturday, and Just Be Lekker also brings decent Cape Town form. Her form in that strong centre was from 1200m to 1600m and in the sprint event she was well beaten. However, that as in a Gr 2 sprint and she finished ahead of Kiss Me Captain, who finished fourth in the Gr 1 Jonsson Workwear Computaform Sprint on Saturday. Furthermore, Just Be Lekker is unbeaten in two sprint starts on the Highveld. Her lowish draw of four might be against her though and it is also never easy against the boys in a straight handicap with no allowances. Richard The First is in good form and should be effective over the sprint trip. However, he also has a low draw. Mount Pilatus also has a form chance, but is drawn one. Dreamland has always had talent and is in fine recent form and he has a nice draw of six out of eight. Goceckwithlove could still improve and is drawn on the right side. Jasiri has the plum standside draw, but will need to up his game on his last two runs. Lily Of The Nile had some fair Cape Town form and has her second run on the Highveld following a moderate first effort and is is her second run after a layoff too. Real Relief will have to bounce back from two poor efforts.
In the first leg of the Pick 6 over 1800m Donna Mo looks to be a progressive sort and will not only enjoy the step up in trip but is drawn in pole. Elembee is 3,5kg better off with Bellevarde for a five length beating, if apprentice claims are ignored, and she is a consistent earner. Bellevarde should beat Elembee on paper and although she has been set 62kg she has the advantage of a 4kg claimer up. Special Charm is consistent and can do well, although she would prefer further. Opera Glass is hard to ignore.
In the second leg Melech ran disappointingly in the Gr 1 HF Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes, but on previous form is the one to beat. He is best in at the weights and a chance is taken on bankering him from a good draw. Bingwa has a lot of talent, but needs things to go his way. This is the sort of race where he could shine. Atticus Finch is also talented and begins his quest to qualify for the Hollywoodbets Durban July here, although he will likely need the run.
In the sixth race over 1400m On The Horizon return from a layoff that might have benfited her being a young and up and coming horse and this should be an ideal trip on her return and she has a plum draw. Duenna is on the up and should make a bold bid too.
In the eight race over 1160m Swing Upon A Star can put his poor run last time at Hollywoodbets Greyville behind him and on course and distance form has a fine chance. Aussenkehr is consistent but has to jump from draw one. Cosmic Star is in good form and looks to be the other one too include.
In the last race over 1160m San Simon has a nice high draw and has good form over course and distance. Suryavarman should relish the slight step up in trip and should be staying on strongly from a high draw. Esquevelle is course and distance suited too and should be thereabouts. Silver Tudor can’t be ignored over a suitable course and distance with a jockey who gets on well with him aboard. Longsword won well last time when stepped down to a sprint and is also a must include.
In the first leg of the bipot VJ’s Angel van follow up on her convincing win last time against an uninpiring field whom she has to give weight to.
In the first leg of the PA Priceless should be cherry ripe and can beat home Rosy Lemon and Princess Kesh.
Corach Rambler Favourite For Repeat Aintree victory
Picture: Corach Rambler is favourite to repeat his 2023 Grand National victory (grandnational.org.uk)
BBC.com
By Frank Keogh
BBC Sport
Randox Grand National 2024
Venue: Aintree Racecourse Date: Saturday, 13 April Time: 17H00 SA Time
Last year’s winner Corach Rambler heads runners for Saturday’s Grand National after the final line-up was confirmed.
A maximum field of 34 has been declared for the Aintree race, with the limit cut from 40 following a safety review.
Conflated was the only withdrawal on Thursday from the remaining entries, meaning 2022 winner Noble Yeats is now top weight.
Eklat de Rire, Chambard and Kitty’s Light are the last horses to be guaranteed a place in the race.
There are 26 Irish-trained runners – with eight each for both Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins.
The Mullins team includes leading fancies I Am Maximus and Meetingofthewaters, owned by JP McManus.
Scottish National winner Kitty’s Light will bid to be the first Welsh-trained victor since Kirkland, in 1905, for trainer Christian Williams, whose young daughter Betsy is being treated for leukaemia.
Mac Tottie is another hope for Wales, with James Bowen riding for his trainer father Peter.
Shakem Up’Arry, a winner at the Cheltenham Festival last month for owner and former football manager Harry Redknapp, is among those to miss the cut.
With persistent rain in the build-up, the going on the National course is described as heavy, soft in places, although it is forecast to be drier over the weekend.
Who are the Grand National favourites?
Corach Rambler, bidding to be only the second horse after Tiger Roll to win back-to-back Nationals since Red Rum in the 1970s, is about 6-1 favourite with the bookmakers.
Approximate odds: 6-1 Corach Rambler, 7-1 I Am Maximus, 9-1 Meetingofthewaters,Vanillier, 10-1 Panda Boy, 12-1 Limerick Lace, Mr Incredible, 14-1 Kitty’s Light, 16-1 Mahler Mission 16-1 Minella Indo, 20-1 Bar
Rachael Blackmore, the first female jockey to win the Grand National when successful on Minella Times three years ago, will be aboard 2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Minella Indo for trainer Henry de Bromhead.
Minella Indo would be only the third horse, and the first since L’Escargot in 1975, to complete the Gold Cup-National double.
She is one of three women riding in the race, with Gina Andrews partnering Latenightpass for her husband Tom Ellis, while Lucy Turner rides the Venetia Williams-trained Chambard.
Turner is one of two amateur jockeys competing alongside David Maxwell, who bought Ain’t That A Shame – 17th in the National last year – so he could have a ride in the contest.
Irish trainers have developed a stranglehold on big jump races, winning 18 of the 27 contests at the Cheltenham Festival.
After Cheltenham, British Horseracing Authority chief executive Julie Harrington said the domination was “damaging” the sport and said more needed to be done to encourage the top horses to be bred, owned, trained and raced in Britain.
What are the safety changes?
Clerk of the course Sulekha Varma said organisers had “spoken to people inside and outside the racing world”
Activist group Animal Rising says it will not disrupt the Grand National this year, after protesters entered the track and delayed the race by 14 minutes in 2023.
Police arrested 118 people on the day of the race, in which the gelding Hill Sixteen suffered a fatal injury.
As well as reducing the line-up, organisers have brought the contest forward by an hour and 15 minutes to 16:00 BST to provide safer ground for runners, and there will be a shorter run to the first fence to slow horses down early on.
The reintroduction of a standing start and further veterinary checks are among other changes.
Snaith To Swing The Hammer
Future Swing can win the Listed WSB Sledgehammer (Picture: Wayne Marks)
Andrew Harrison (Gold Circle)
Justin Snaith has started his KZN winter season campaign with all guns blazing and he can add to his already growing tally when he sends out Algoa Cup winner Future Swing in the Listed World Sports Betting Sledgehammer at Hollywoodbets Scottsville on Sunday.
The gelding has strong form in feature company and although he won over a lot further last time out, he is equally effective over this trip. Richard Fourie will be aboard and the title-chasing jockey looks to have a strong card of rides on the day and may be the man to follow.
Fourie was aboard Imilenzeyokududuma when he was a beaten favourite behind Narina Trogon in the Kings Cup, the latter turning the tables on their last meeting. Gareth van Zyl’s runner is now 3kg better off and the tables can be turned again. Robbie Hill sent Navajo Nation to try his luck in the Highveld features without success and that form does not inspire. However, the gelding is way better than his run in the Gr1 SA Classic and a win will not come as a surprise.
Supporting feature is the WSB Scarlet Lady over 1750m, ironically named after one of the best sprinting fillies ever to race at Hollywoodbets Scottsville. Be that as it may, Mike de Kock saddles Mary’s Greenlight who was a narrow winner over a mile last time out. Prior to that she had not been far back to recent Gr2 SA Oaks winner Frances Ethel. The step up to 1750m will suit and she will be a big runner. Tony Rivalland, fresh off a double last Monday, saddles Celtic Beauty who is relatively unexposed. But she has had the benefit of having won over course and distance and a handy galloping weight. The stable have high hopes for her future. Of the balance, Ivy League was not far back in her local debut after returning from a break. Her regular pilot is aboard and she can definitely finish in the money while stable companion Ballroom Bliss is up in class but won well on this course last time out which is a bonus.
The WSB Highland Night could develop into a match between Cape Eagle and One Way Traffic. Cape Eagle has been in cracking form over shorter but Andre Nel’s gelding has been running on stoutly. The step up in trip should suit and he can have the measure of Justin Snaith’s charge One Way Traffic who is well proven over the trip. Snaith has made a cracking start to his KZN winter season raid and One Way Traffic could be the horse they all have to beat. Louise Goosen has confined Cyber Time to a mile at recent outings but he has form over this trip and with a handy weight can feature. Pirate Prince has his third run after a break and was a close-up second last start over shorter. He stays the trip and must have a chance.
In a competitive Pinnacle Stakes, Wendy Whitehead’s stable is in good form and she looks to have picked the right race for Beechamwood Boy. He is over his favourite course and distance with a light weight and under the weight conditions is very well in. Main danger could be Good Traveller who is also nicely in at the weights and Richard Fourie rides for Michael Roberts. The gelding had a tough draw around the Greyville turn last time out. Teflon Man has some smart Cape form over the trip and with a handy galloping weight he should be competitive while Captain Bombshell won the Marula Sprint over course and distance and there should not be much between him and Sun Blushed.
In the card opener, Quid Pro Quo was a comfortable winner over course and distance when shedding her maiden. At her penultimate start she was narrowly beaten by Just Reckless who finished runner-
up in the Gr2 SA Fillies Nursery last Saturday. However, Richard Fourie has jumped ship to ride Woza Nawe for Peter Muscutt after she made a promising debut in the soft at Hollywoodbets Greyville and can go one better. Of the others, Hot Lava found good market support on debut but was well beaten. It was soft going that day and the winner, Ibhele has since franked that form.
One of the better bets on the card should be Teriyaki in the second. This is a modest line-up but there are a number of first timers in the race so watch the betting. Teriyaki has been in the money at his last three starts and with Fourie taking the ride he is the obvious choice. Flyingcool made a promising debut at long odds for Gary Rich and is sure to come on from the experience and could be a threat.
The third is a tricky maiden. Run To Rio disappointed when taking the turn on the turf for the first time after three good runs over this course and distance. Stuart Ferrie’s runner should be in the mix come the line. The juvenile filly Glamorz ran a cracker on the poly last run and was closing fast on the well exposed winner. She has a light weight and must have a big chance. Cats Pajamas found some market support on debut and was a creditable third in spite of racing green. That run should have brought him on for Frank Robinson. Fourie rides a first timer for Glen Kotzen in Mr Hotstepper so any market support should be taken seriously.
It’s a tough one to round off the card but Shona Kirsty Ives has been a beaten favourite at her last three and is due a change of fortune. Rachell Venniker gets down to her absolute minimum weight for Michael Roberts and the inference is obvious. Shanta’s Pride has her issues but showed up well first time back from a break. Fourie rides for Muscutt which is always an encouraging sign. Maggie Smith is lightly raced and has been consistent of late for Wendy Whitehead. Her last two outings on this course has seen her in the money and she has another strong chance again.
Formguides And Selections For Hollywoodbets Kenilworth Saturday
Wissa’s On Fire can provide Turf Talk-sponsored jockey Craig Bantam with another winner in race 9 (Picture: Wayne Marks)
R1 2 BE MERRY is impeccably well bred and made some strong progress from the back fo the field on debut to finish 3rd. With natural improvement expected, she should have every chance of winning here. The biggest danger is 9 DUCHESS OF PALOMA who brings the Cape Slipper formline to the table and with the drop in class back to a maiden juvenile plate, it would not be surprising to see her win. 1 SCARLETT MACAW placed on debut and should be the best of the rest followed by 3 POETIC PRINCESS (Devon Pretorius: 2-9-1-3)
R2 On paper, 7 MASTER OF PARIS looks hard to oppose holding a few runners at the weights and brings the best form to the race. However, 5 TOTHEMOONANDBACK was heavily supported last time out from big odds and now with the jockey booking of Richard Fourie, one must assume that Tothemoonandback is capable of bouncing back and a chance is taken on him to reverse the form. 2 SUMMER FLING has improved with every start in the Cape and is capable of featuring here. 3 PRIME VENTURE could be the lurker in the field dropping in class but does have top weight to shoulder (Devon Pretorius: 5-7-2-3)
R3 The filly 7 LOVE IS A ROSE is the best weighted in the race after receiving the 2,5kgs sex allowance. She should have no issue with the distance and she should go very close to winning here with 56kgs if she is not in need of the run. 4 ALLEZ MORIS is poorly weighted but he is on the up and progressive. Fourie retains the ride and must be respected. 1 SALVATOR MUNDI returns after a break and has raced in the summer feature races for stayers in the Cape. He has top weight to shoulder, but his class should see him place. 5 SUPREME DREAM can complete the quartet (Devon Pretorius: 7-4-1-5)
R4 2 MONT LOISIR looks hard to beat and could be one of the better bets on the card. 2nd in his last two starts, combination of Crawford and Fourie as well as a good draw of barrier 2 and is distance suited. 3 WATER DRAGON is lightly raced and is open to big improvement after a good enough effort after nearly a year off the track. 5 WALK WITH ME is a juvenile taking on older company but he doesn’t need to be a superstar to win here. 6 GREENLAND has been costly to follow but he has been gelded and he should be in the shake up. 11 DEVIL A SAINT drops back in trip to 1400m where he has run his best races (Devon Pretorius: 2-3-5-6)
R5 4 CALLMEGETRIX finished 5th in the Cape Fillies Classic and takes a drop in class back to a class 4. Princess Izzy has franked that form when she won the Sweet Chestnut Stakes last week in no uncertain terms. With that form behind her she should be hard to beat. 2 WUGUG, 3 GLEE CLUB, 5 GO LIKE FLO as well as 13 SENHORA VICTORIA are all closely matched with nothing much separating them. They should all be in the finish in an open looking race (Devon Pretorius: 4-2-5-3)
R6 On collateral formline 4 INNAMORARE is well weighted by a few kgs to finish ahead of the likes of 1 FIBONACCI; 2 TYRION LANNISTER and 5 POMODORO’S JET. If 1600m isn’t a touch too far then he should be the one to beat. 7 PROMETTERE must be respected even with the top weight to shoulder. 6 SOLOMONS SEAL had too much work to do last time out and was unlucky not to have finished closer. A case can be made for the majority of the field in a wide open race as well as 12 QUATERMAIN who is a model of consistency of late and 8 LINDBERGH who is stepping up in trip. Take the field in exotics (Devon Pretorius: 4-1-5-6)
R7 8 PLUM PUDDING has improved every time she has stepped up in trip and should continue that trend here over 1800m. She is capable to win first run out the maidens. 7 BASIC MANEUVERS was not disgraced first run out the maidens when finishing second behind a horse that has won three in a row. She should be involved in the finish. 1 CATTALEYA as well as 4 SUMMER NIGHT CITY were not far off Basic Maneuvers last time out and should feature here. Watch out for 6 ETERNAL OPTIMIST who has been creeping closer as his rating continues to drop and if timed right, he could upset at a price (Devon Pretorius: 8-7-1-4)
R8 2 PREVALENCE is one of the more consistent runners in the race but the hard fact is that is has been some time since has featured in the winners box. 6 VOORLOOPERTJIE showed big improvement with the blinkers on and won easing up at the line. If he continues to improve he could have the beating of the former. 7 BLUE BAY shouldn’t be too far off the action and won at short odds last time out but it wasn’t in a convincing manner. 11 ABERDEEN can finish in the quartet after a much improved last time out (2-6-7-11)
R9 13 WISSA’S ON FIRE won in a very comfortable fashion a few weeks ago in a strong maiden plate. He’s still on the up and if he repeats that effort here, he should go close to winning again. 6 NIGHT TIGER is consistent and never far off the action. He should fight out the finish as well as 14 THE TINKERMAN. Watch for improvement from 15 RAF’S ROCKET who has been gelded. (Devon Pretorius: 13-6-14-15)
R10 9 GREAT CAT found a good finish last time out and if she was a little closer in running, she could have won. She should fight it out along with 10 NIGHT VIGIL and 6 LOVE SHACK. 14 HEAR MY VOICE has won two of her last three starts and shouldn’t be too far off. (Devon Pretorius: 9-10-6-14)
Aintree Saturday Formguides And Selections
Cousin Casey will box on
Cousin Casey winning the Gr 2 Cape Punter’s Cup (Picture: Wayne Marks)
Cousin Casey was the biggest disappointment in the Gr 1 World Pool Premier’s Champions Challenge, but will stay in training.
His owner Ravi Naidoo revealed, “It was a tough day at the races … Cousin Casey was pulled up in the straight. He was found to be coughing. He was ridden quite aggerssively in the first 200m to get to the front from his wide draw. He trotted out fine the following morning. He had one tight hindquarter muscle and one testicle was up.”
However, he was philosophical at the same time and continued, “When one thinks of all the variables along a very long value chain in just getting a horse to a race, it’s a small miracle when you find one that wins five in a row.”
He added, “I hope we can find the reboot switch for Cousin. He’s earned the right to be managed patiently … and we have been, we just need the rub of the green now.”
The Vercingetorix colt was the Equus Champion two-year-old colt, but his only win since has been in his first start as a three-year-old in the Gr 2 Cape Punters Cup over 1600m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth.
However, he has not had a great deal of luck since.
He took a costly couple of bumps in the straight in the Gr 1 Daily News 2000 when finishing a 2,30 length fourth to See It Again.
Since relocating to the Highveld yard of Sean Tarry he has been plagued by wide draws.
In the Premier’s Richard Fourie sent him forward from a wide draw, which was not suprising considering it was widely believed there would be a good pace up front that was probably going to be set by Dave The King.
However, there was instead no pace at all and Cousin Casey got caught in front pulling hard.
He did ultimately find cover but the damge had been done and he was eventually eased out of the race when finding nothing in the straight.
There was also the later report, as stated by Ravi above, of coughing.
Ravi hinted that ideally the smart colt might be see out again in an “under the radar” appearance on April 27 at Turffontein. On that date there is the Gr 2 WSB Colrado King Stakes over 2000m and the Gr 2 WSB Senor Santa Stakes over 1160m and there is also a 1400m Pinnacle event.
Fourie/Greef Treble, Smith Treble, Yeni, Mitchley Doubles
Richard Fourie wins the Listed East Cape Oaks on the Alan Greeff-trained Master Of My Fate filly Joy And Pace. She provided the leading breeders on the national log at present, Wilgerbosdrift and Mauritzfontein Stud, with an eleventh individual stakes winner this season. (Pauline Herman Photography)
Richard Fourie rode a treble for Alan Greeff at Fairview today (Friday).
Gavin Smith also had a treble, two of them ridden by Muzi Yeni.
Kelly Mitchley scored an individual double.
Fourie is now on 249 wins for the season at a strike rate of 22.19%.
He needs just 86 more wins to earn a R1 million bonus from Hollywoodbets for breaking Anthony Delpech’s famous 334 in a season record.
His projected number of wins at present if keeping up the same number of rides per calendar day rate and the same strike rate is 356.
Yeni goes to 143 wins at 13.22%.
Smith is on 96 wins at 12.14%.
Greeff is on 90 wins at 15.13%.
Mitchley is on 52 wins at 10.28%.
Today’s Question
The subject of the question is pictured above (Picture: wikimedia).
Phalaris, Pharos and Nearco are mentioned as founders of the Northern Dancer sire line which saturates the throughbred breed today, but which horse with South African connections is found further down the sire line?