Turf Talk Newsletter – 04 November, 2024

Isivunguvungu (yellow colours, purple stars) is about to be squeezed out close to home in the Gr 1 Breeders Cup Turf Sprint and it could well have cost him a place. (Candiese Lenferna Photography) 

The Narrow Creek Stud-bred Hollywood Syndicate-owned Isivunguvungu is headed for the Gr 1 Hong Kong Sprint to be run over 1200m at Sha Tin on December 8.

The Graham Motion-trained What A Winter gelding put up a fine display in the Gr 1 Breeders Cup Turf Sprint over five furlongs at Del Mar on Saturday and was probably unlucky not to place after being squeezed out close to home.

Former trainer Peter Muscutt said after the race, “He will always remain a champion, even though we were extremely disappointed when he had to shift.”

Isivunguvungu got a good break under Manuel Franco and managed to get into the box seat on the rail behind the ultra quick favourite Cogburn.

Isivunguvungu cornered well and then began closing on Cogburn in the straight.

At one stage a massive upset looked a possibility for the 50-1 chance.

However, he was being challenged on his outside and just as the flying eventual winner Starlust reached him the tiring Cogburn shifted outward, forcing Starlust to angle outward to continue his flying finish.

Isivunguvungu was thus squeezed out between Starlust and the grey challenging him on his outside.

He had to be snatched up and that could well have cost him a place, although he had gone a blistering pace up until then and it is open to conjecture how much extra he would have had.

In the USA the rule is the same as it used to be in SA i.e. that if a horse is cost a place by interference the guilty party can be demoted (in SA the rule is that the interfered with horse would have had to beat the horse who interfered with it for the result to change).

However, the stewards decided that as it was the unplaced (fifth placed) Cogburn who caused the interference and left the winner Starlust with little choice other than to barge his way through the gap, they would allow the result to stand.

The Breeders Cup website wrote the below report:

STARLUST SURPRISES IN PREVAGEN BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT (Breeders Cup Website)

DEL MAR, Calif. (Nov. 2, 2024) – Mrs. Fitriani Hay’s Starlust (GB) ($69.20), last early on, found clear running along the rail in the stretch to score a neck victory over Motorious (GB) to win the 16th running of the $1 million Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) for 3-year-olds and up at Del Mar on Saturday afternoon.

Trained by Ralph Beckett and ridden by Rossa Ryan, Starlust completed the 5 furlongs on a firm turf course in :55.92. It is the second World Championships victory for Beckett, who previously won with Muhannak (IRE) in the 2008 Marathon. It is the first Breeders’ Cup win for Ryan.

Heavily favored Cogburn rocketed out to an uncontested lead and maintained a daylight advantage until mid-stretch when the field began to close in. Ag Bullet and Star of Mystery (GB) closed in first on Cogburn while to the inside, Starlust had clear sailing and got up in the final strides for the victory. Motorious got up for second by a nose over Ag Bullet.

Third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1) at Santa Anita last year, Starlust is a 3-year-old son of Zoustar (AUS) out of the Invincible Spirit mare Beyond Desire (GB). Now carrying a record of 18-6-3-3, Starlust picked up $520,000 for the victory that boosted his earnings to $915,137.

Quotes:

Winning trainer Ralph Beckett, Starlust (GB) – “He’s a really tough horse, not had a break all year. He had a tough trip in the l’Abbaye last time but today he was very good. Rossa Ryan gets better by the month. It’s his third or fourth year with us and today he was at his very best. The way he rode Bluestocking (GB) in the Arc was very different to today and I’m very proud of what he’s achieved. What a day!”
On winning the BC Marathon 16 years ago and then another win today:

“There’s an irony there because it was nearly as good a ride today as it was with Pat (Smullen) 16 years ago. Pretty much on par, for different reasons. Muhannak was notoriously tricky and difficult and this horse is in equal measure, straightforward. He just couldn’t lay up and go with them and we talked about going down the rail with him beforehand if he got a long way back. It was marvelous I’m delighted for Jim and Fitri Hay, who put a lot in and this horse has been very well-managed by Alex Cole. He’s danced every dance and we got our win today.”

Regarding the inquiry:
“It was a long time ago and you may not remember, but Secret Gesture got taken down in the Beverly D. in 2013 and there was a bit of deja-vu, but it wouldn’t have been fair to take him down, given the favorite lugged out. But, finally, it’s a terrific day.”

On winning the Arc and now a Breeders’ Cup 4 weeks later:
“The reality is that when you’re in it, it’s very hard to enjoy it. I think probably we will enjoy it at the end of the year. And we’re nearly done now. We have a week’s left of runners and then there’s November and December and that’s when I’ll really (enjoy it). But, absolutely it has been a year like no other.”
Winning jockey Rossa Ryan, Starlust (GB) – “An unbelievable day on a brilliant horse. We took our time and rode him for a bit of luck and thankfully it paid off. He’s a very tough and consistent horse who deserved this win, so I’m delighted. It didn’t work out last time out but today it has.”

Trainer Phil D’Amato, second with Motorious (GB) – “He ran a great race. He was just stuck on the inside, but I thought the jock (Antonio Fresu) did a great job of getting him out and getting him into his run. We almost got the job done. Having to break from the rail, I thought he did a great job.”

(On the inquiry): “You can make a legitimate argument that (Starlust) cost Cogburn a placing, but that is up to the stewards.” (*Ed – he actually did more damage to Isivunguvungu’s chances than to any other horse).

Jockey Antonio Fresu, second with Motorious (GB) – “I know we weren’t happy with the draw by actually turned out good. The thing is this horse always run as best when he comes on the outside. All of his winners have come from the outside because he needs some room and he is not the bravest one. That’s why I didn’t stay where I was. You can see when he’s behind horses he had his head up, like he didn’t want to get there, and then I had a chance to get him out, I took it and you see the result. As soon as he’s on the outside, he started running. And then the winner came really fast on the inside and we were just just unlucky he came there on time”

Trainer Richard Baltas, third with Ag Bullet – “Super proud of her, shortening back up to five-eighths of a mile after running a mile and running six and a half. I wasn’t so sure she obviously would do the five-eighths. She ran her race. I’m very proud of her. Umberto (Rispoli) had to make a decision inside or outside. He just made the right move I think. It’s tough. I’m very proud of her performance. She hit the board.”

Jockey Umberto Rispoli, third with Ag Bullet – “She likes to throw me out of the gate a few times. I think it was an absolutely great effort from her. She’s coming back very quickly after a Grade 1 at Keeneland going a mile and to be honest with you, going five furlongs with the best sprinter in the world, I think it was a hell of a run for her.

“I know five furlongs is a little bit short for her, so that makes me move a little early and doesn’t let me ride her the way I really wanted. But I had a good trip and I can’t complain. I just got run down by two nice horses.”

Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr, beaten favorite Cogburn – “I used him a little early. I was in between two horses and he didn’t break that well today. I had to use him a little bit early. I just let him be him. I didn’t want to fight to much with him and I turned for home, I asked him to give me a good kick, but they went by me.”

Marco van Rensburg celebrates victory on outsider Winchester Mansion (JC Photos).

The Gr 2 Allied Steelrode Onamission Charity Mile was full of drama on Saturday at Turffontein Standside and was won by 2023 Hollywoodbets Durban July winner and 2024 Gr 1 Premier’s Champions Challenge runner up Winchester Mansion, but not after a drama-packed race.

The Brett Crawford-trained Drakenstein Stud-homebred Trippi gelding had finished 12th in this year’s July, beaten 6,15 lengths, and was last of 12 horses home in his previous start in a Pinnacle Stakes race over 1600m on October 12, beaten 19 lengths.

Many bellieved his best days to be behind him and he was duly ignored in the betting, starting at 40/1.

The Tote favourite and bookmakers favourite was the Equus Horse Of The Year Dave The King.

The first drama was when Muzi Yeni fell off the fancied 5/1 shot Back In Business, who had been in devastating form and was attempting to remain unbeaten for the season.

A complex chain of events caused the incident and one or two jockeys might well be in hot water after the inquiry process is completed.

Yeni went out the side door after Back In Buisness had clipped heels and after hitting the ground went under the hooves of both Zinovi and Gimmeanotherchance, who were both forced outward by the incident.

Yeni was leter diagnosed to have a fractured clavicle and was reported in pain but in good spirits in hospital.

It was the combined outward movement of Silver Sanctuary (Raymond Danielson) from off the rail and the inward movement of Hotarubi (Calvin Habib) which forced Meridius (Rachel Venniker) to take evasive action and this horse’s sudden outward movement caused Back In Business, who had come in from an outside draw, to clip heels. However, Silver Sanctuary’s initial inward movement was caused by Winchester Mansion (Marco van Rensburg) cutting in front of him and Silver Sanctuary’s subsequent outward movement was caused by him relieving pressure on Frances Ethel (Kabelo Matsunyane), whom he had cramped on the rail by moving inward. Hotarubi’s inward movement was caused partly by pressure from Barbaresco (Gavin Lerena) going inward. Winchester Mansion’s inward movement was caused by him overracing and had he gone straight he would have crashed into Dave The King (Richard Fourie), who was coming from an outside draw and he was forced to maintain that movement because Celtic Rumours (Philasande Mxoli) on his outside was going in the same direction.

There had been an earlier incident too just after the start.

The stipendiary steward report on both incidents stated:

a) Shortly after the start, SAFE PASSAGE (M K Katjedi) was squeezed out when awkwardly placed between MERIDIUS (R A Venniker) and WINCHESTER MANSION (M van Rensburg), which jumped inwards leaving the stalls.
b) Approaching the 1400m, FRANCES ETHEL (K Matsunyane), which was ridden forward, was tightened for galloping room on the heels of SILVER SANCTUARY (R Danielson), which shifted in slightly when in restricted galloping room on the inside of WINCHESTER MANSION (M van Rensburg), which commenced to over-race and shifted in. Consequently, SHOEMAKER (D De Gouveia) was steadied when tightened for galloping room. Immediately thereafter, SILVER SANCTUARY (R Danielson) was directed outwards to relieve the pressure on FRANCES ETHEL (K Matsunyane) and this led to MERIDIUS (R A Venniker) being severely tightened for galloping room between SILVER SANCTUARY (R Danielson) and HOTARUBI (C Habib) which itself received pressure from BARBARESCO (G Lerena), which shifted in marginally. As a result, MERIDIUS (R A Venniker) had to steady and subsequently, its heels were clipped by BACK IN BUSINESS (M Yeni), which stumbled and led to Jockey M Yeni being dislodged. GIMMEANOTHERCHANCE (C Zackey) and ZINOVI (S Moodley) were forced to take evasive action and consequently clipped the stricken Jockey (M Yeni). Jockey M Yeni (BACK IN BUSINESS) was attended to by the course paramedics and escorted to the medical centre for further assessment.
Jockey R A Venniker (MERIDIUS) and Jockey C Habib (HOTARUBI) were interviewed and after they gave their interpretation of what had transpired, the Board has adjourned to consider the evidence.

Winchester Mansion got the rail in fifth placed after the melee and then traveled within himself.
He produced a resolute finish and finished 0,75 lengths clear of the Stuart Ferrie-trained KZN raider Gladatorian, who flew from last position in a strung out field so must have made up at least 15 lengths in the straight.

Barbaresco stayed on for a 2,25 length third and Silver Sanctuary and Hotarubi ran on well to be beaten 3,25 lengths and four lengths respectively.

Dave The King was having his first run of the season and after opening up a lead on Turffontein Standside’s notoriously tough hill leading into the straight it was not surprising he could not maintain his gallop. However, he did fade alarmingly and was beaten 19 lengths.

Five-year-old Gladatorian was the one to take out of the race and he looks to have a bright future ahead of him considering he was largely kept to sprints in his first three seasons, but is proving himself over further, which also alines with his pedigree.

Vauban ridden by William Buick (centre) wins the Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup Stakes during day three of the Sky Bet Ebor Festival at York Racecourse. Picture: Mike Egerton/PA Wire.

Willie Mullins column: We have no excuses in our Melbourne Cup quest this year – we have done things differently, we have the right jockeys and our horses are in great shape

• British and Irish champion trainer Willie Mullins has two runners set to take part in the Melbourne Cup overnight with Vauban and Absurde

• Vauban is second favourite to land the top prize at Flemington, while Absurde is among the top four in the betting as well

• The Melbourne Cup is a race that Mullins is desperate to add to his CV, having conquered the UK and Ireland he now has his sight set on Australia and has revealed his runners have “no excuses” this time around

• The article below is courtesy of https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/tips-centre

“We’ve done things differently with Vauban and Absurde this time around ahead of the Lexus Melbourne Cup.

“I’m not sure being in quarantine for so long last time suited them so we’ve gone down a different route and we went out on the last shift which travelled to Australia.

“I raced them more this year too, so they had nothing to do down there other than freshen up and get ready for the race. It’s all gone well.

“The weather has been so up and down. When I went out two weeks ahead of the race it was 14 degrees but felt like eight, David Casey told me the day before it was 32 and blasting hot.

“Our Irish horses aren’t used to anything like that, it’s very hard for them to race at 30 degrees which it was at the time the Cup was run in 2023.

“This time thankfully it’s forecast to be a little cooler which will help.

“Vauban’s form this year has been fantastic including behind Kyprios in the Irish St Leger and I loved what Absurde did on his last run at Chester, settling in behind, getting one gap and taking it.

“We know he has the speed and stamina for this race and Kerrin McEvoy has been booked to ride and he’s won two Melbourne Cups so hopefully we have the right man in the saddle.

“With the weight he has to carry it’s very hard to find the right jockey with the big-race experience, while William Buick, who rides Vauban, has been riding great all year.

“I’m very happy with both horses, they’re in great shape, and I’m happy with their draws too. We have no excuses on that front.

“After last year we wanted another go at the race with both horses and we’re looking forward to Tuesday.”

Tim Carroll has selected Absurde to win the Melbourne Cup (Picture: justhorseracing.com.au)

Tim Carroll (At The Races)

1. VAUBAN (11)
Jockey: William Buick / Trainer: W P Mullins

Arrives a bigger price in a lessor renewal having bombed in the race last year when favourite on the back of impressive wins at Royal Ascot and Naas. Willie Mullins has purposely kicked off his campaign later this year and he arrives having had three starts since Royal Ascot instead of just the one. He’s been at the top of his game of late, winning the Lonsdale Cup at York before a strong effort in defeat behind Kyprios in the Irish St Leger, which is the best piece of recent form on offer. He’s obviously far more talented than what he showed when last in Melbourne. He wouldn’t be the first horse to win the Cup at the second time of asking, and unlike 12 months ago, given the make-up of the race, he now looks a decent price rather than over-bet.

2. BUCKAROO (21)
João Moreira / Chris Waller

Formerly a smart type for Joseph O’Brien, the now Chris Waller trained 6-year-old took a bit of time to find his feet Down Under but has quickly turned into one of the leading middles distance performers in the land. He won the Underwood Stakes in September before finishing a close second to Via Sistina in the Turnbull Stakes and was last seen rattling late to grab the silver when a beaten favourite in the Caulfield Cup. He has a tricky draw to contend with and there is a query over the this trip as he’s never won over further than 9f, but the Caulfield Cup is considered the leading trial for this, and the way he ran through the line from well off the pace that day was encouraging, and he looks one of the leading contenders for the locals.

3. CIRCLE OF FIRE (24)
Mark Zahra / Ciaron Maher

The former Sir Michael Stoute 5-year-old was the early favourite for the Melbourne Cup after winning the Sydney Cup in good style in April. However, he hasn’t fired in three starts during the current campaign, although his effort behind Via Sistina in the Turnbull Stakes earned a pass mark. He was well held in the Caulfield Cup when last seen, but there were plenty on the day than ran below par and it would be no surprised if a few who underperformed that day do better here. He represents the largest yard in Australia in Ciaron Maher, who has a habit of peaking them at exactly the right time, and although this race runs deeper than the Sydney Cup, he is one from one over the trip and, at 33/1 (at the time of writing), he wouldn’t be the worse outsider in the field.

4. WARP SPEED (3)
Akira Sugawara / Noboru Takagi

Japanese contender who will need to lift after an ordinary effort in the Caulfield Cup when he sat out the back and was one of the first to come under a ride but failed to pick up. On the plus side, that was his first run for a while, the Melbourne Cup has always been the target, and he wasn’t beaten far in the spring version of the Tenno Sho when last seen over this trip in April. Given his back form, you couldn’t completely write him off, but he’ll need to improve plenty on what we saw at Caulfield.

5. KOVALICA (17)
Damian Lane / Chris Waller

The Chris Waller 5-year-old is an intriguing runner as he’s a complete unknown over this trip and has only been over a mile-and-a-half on one occasion when he won the Queensland Derby in May of last year. It’s difficult to get a handle on his form from a two-mile perspective, but there’s some ‘numbers’ that would suggest he may be effective. He was last seen when well held in the Cox Plate, but his final furlong was the third quickest of the race behind only the winner, who is now the highest rated horse in the world, and the third, a smart Godolphin 3-year-old that was carrying 21lb less. He could be cabbage or caviar over this trip, but I’d prefer to keep him on the safe side.

6. SHARP ‘N’ SMART (15)
Michael Dee / Graeme & Debbie Rogerson

Likeable New Zealand 5-year-old trained by Graeme Rogerson, who won this race in 2007 with Efficient. He has some back form at Flemington, having been runner-up in the VRC Derby as a 3-year-old, and although he’s a big price for this (66/1 at the time of writing), he looked in good shape when a running on third in the Moonee Valley Cup on his most recent start. The shape of the race has changed in recent years, but plenty of Kiwis have won and run with merit in defeat, and whilst he wouldn’t be the most obvious winner, he’d worth including in any lavish exotic type bets.

7. JUST FINE (13)
J McNeil / Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott

Formerly with Sir Michael Stoute, the now Gai Waterhouse-trained 7-year-old gelding won his way into the Cup when making all in the Bart Cummings over the extended mile-and-a-half last month on a rain effected surface. He then disappointed in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup when finishing last, and he has more on his plate here. Having said that, he’s probably better suited to Flemington where he can get into a rhythm somewhere on the front end, but the son of Sea The Stars has never been over two miles and looks opposable.

8. LAND LEGEND (18)
Zac Purton / Chris Waller

Formerly with James Ferguson, he’s a low-mileage 4-year-old that has thrived since joining Chris Waller and lands here having won the Metropolitan Stakes at Randwick before a strong effort in defeat when picking up the bronze in the Caufield Cup. He was well held by the winner, who doesn’t line up here, and five lengths behind Buckaroo, who he meets on similar terms, that day, but he was forced to make a run with five furlongs to go and stuck on strongly. He’s never been over this trip, but he looked a staying in the making when with James Ferguson and is one of the brighter hopes for the locals.

9. ABSURDE (7)
Kerrin McEvoy / W P Mullins

Was just over five-lengths behind the winner when seventh in this last year, a run that was better than the bare result. They ran the race at a solid gallop that day and he was the first home of those that sat close to the pace. He hasn’t been seen since winning his final lead up race at Chester in late August, which is similar to last year, and although they took a different route this time round, he ran to a 6lb higher mark in his final prep run this year. Willie Mullins hadn’t had him long when he came over 12 months ago, and I’d be surprised if he hasn’t improved him over the last year. Kerrin McEvoy, a three-time winner of this race, picks up the ride and although the weights are compressed, he does look well treated.

10. ATHABASCAN (2)
Zac Lloyd / John O’Shea

A winner in France as a 3-year-old for Andre Fabre, and now with John O’Shea, he does arrive having taken out the St Leger Stakes at Randwick last month. That wasn’t an overly strong race, but he was runner-up in the Sydney Cup earlier this year when two-lengths behind Circle of Fire, who he meets on 6lb better terms, which has been his only try over this trip. He has a bit to find with a few of the others, but his prospects would be enhanced if some rain arrived, which is unlikely according to the forecast.

11. KNIGHT’S CHOICE (6)
Robbie Dolan / John Symons & Sheila Laxon

Shelia Laxon became the first woman trainer to win this race with the brilliant mare Ethereal in 2001, but this fellow is not at that level, and he looks a genuine outsider. However, he did run better than the bare result when fifth in behind the Harry Eustace-trained Sea King in the Bendigo Cup last time and whilst he certainly doesn’t get close to the winner, with a bit of luck he could have finished second, but he looks out of his depth here.

12. OKITA SOUSHI (10)
Jamie Kah / Ciaron Maher

Joseph O’Brien travelled this fellow to Melbourne for the Cup last year and whilst he never looked likely, he ran better than his triple-figure quote. He’s now had four starts for Ciaron Maher, showing very little his first two but then taking a big step forward to finishing runner-up in the Herbert Power at Caulfield before taking out the Moonee Valley Cup with the former Derby winner Serpentine in second. He dives into deeper waters here, but he won over this trip early on in his career in Ireland, he’s improved every start and has claims with the light weight.

13. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (12)
Craig Williams / Brian Ellison

Brian Ellison hasn’t had a lot of luck travelling horses to Australia over the years, but they all changed as his 6-year-old gelding smashed his way in the field when sauntering to victory in the Geelong Cup. Much to the relief to connections, he was handed a penalty for that, which he needed to ensure a start in the big one. He doesn’t bring as sexy a profile as a few other internationals that have made their way down, but he’s been sent down early and proven that he is thriving in the local conditions. He has a bit of history on his side with Media Puzzle (2002), Americain (2010) and Dunaden (2011) all completing the Geelong-Melbourne Cup double, and Craig Williams was very quick to commit to the ride after their Geelong Cup success.

14. ZARDOZI (4)
Andrea Atzeni / James Cummings

Godolphin filly with a European pedigree that sees Andre Atzeni flying in for the rider. She enjoys Flemington having won two of her four starts on the track with her career highlight when successful in the Oaks here last Spring. She hasn’t been in the winner’s circle since March when she won the Phar Lap Stakes in Sydney under Tom Marquand, but she’s been ticking along nicely having been beaten a nose and protesting unsuccessfully behind Land Legend in the Metropolitan last month before a solid effort in defeat when fourth in the Caulfield Cup, albeit she was over eight-lengths behind the winner. She was last seen on the weekend when a fast finishing fifth in the Empire Rose over the mile, thus she is on a quick turnaround, but she looks a lightweight chance from a favourable draw.

15. SEA KING (1)
Hollie Doyle / Harry Eustace

Made his way into the field when winning the Bendigo Cup, which is the last ‘win-and-your-in’ for the Melbourne Cup. The Harry Eustace-trained gelding caught the attention of many that day, sitting mid-field before sustaining a wide run from a long way out, taking off well before the turn and sprinting clear to win by nearly four lengths. This demands more than the Bendigo Cup, but like Onesmoothoperator, who he finished one spot in front of when sixth in this year’s Ebor, he has proven he is enjoying life in Australia, and from toward the foot of the handicap, Hollie Doyle gets the call-up.

16. VALIANT KING (22)
Craig Newitt / Chris Waller

Hacked up in a Navan maiden for Joseph O’Brien last year, which has been his only win to date. He was runner-up to Vauban in the Ballyroan at Naas, and he did run well enough in defeat with sixth in last year’s Caulfield Cup. But he has shown nothing in three starts since joining Chris Waller having been well held when last seen in this year’s Caulfield Cup and it is impossible to make a case for on recent form.

17. FANCY MAN (19)
Ron Stewart / Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald

A 7-year-old that won then 2022 Lingfield Derby trial when with Richard Hannon. Although he hasn’t reached any great heights since joining Annabel Neasham and Rob Archibald, he did take out the Queensland Cup over a mile-and-a-half last year and has been solid in defeat all three starts this time in. He was last seen running sixth in the Caulfield Cup and whilst he never looked likely he was sneaking home when most where struggling, giving the impression he may take to the two miles. At 80/1 (at the time of writing), he wouldn’t be the worse ‘roughie’ for each-way players.

18. INTERPRETATION (14)
Theodore Nugent / Ciaron Maher

Was a three-time winning 3-year-old for Aidan O’Brien, and whilst he’s only managed the solitary success in Australia, he presents solid credentials for this. He turned in a wonderful performance in defeat in this last year, snagged back from a high draw before rattling from near the back at the two-furlong mark to finish sixth. He arrives having finished runner-up to Onesmoothoperator in the Geelong Cup, and whilst the winner was impressive that day, there was plenty to like about the performance as he ran through the long strongly from the back and will enjoy stepping up in trip. Looks a genuine lightweight chance.

19. MANZOICE (8)
Declan Bates / Chris Waller

Won the VRC Derby in 2022, which is a race that lends itself to future Melbourne Cup types. However, that was his last win and just his second from 21 starts. Whilst he showed a bit of pace, he faded to run seventh in the Moonee Valley Cup on his most recent outing, and he finished out the back in the Sydney Cup the last time he was seen over this trip in April.

20. MOSTLY CLOUDY (16)
Karis Teetan / Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young

Won five on the bounce in 2022 when with Gemma Tutty, and he got on the board at just his second start in Australia. Has been below par recently having been well held when last seen the Bart Cummings at Moonee Valley and is currently at a triple-figure quote. Whilst he will need to show more than he has his last few, it is worth noting that his record in both Europe and Australia in and around this trip reads 1-1-5-6-2, and Hong Kong-based ace South African hoop, Karis Teetan takes the ride.

21. POSITIVITY (20)
Winona Costin / Andrew Forsman

A 4-year-old Kiwi filly that was runner-up in a New Zealand Oaks before crossing the Tasman winning the SA Classic and the Naturalism Stakes. However, they weren’t over strong contests, she has been well held in the Bart Cummings and the Moonee Valley Cup at her last two, and she has a high draw to contend with.

22. SAINT GEORGE (9)
Tyler Schiller / Ciaron Maher

The former Andrew Balding inmate looks one to keep on the safe side. He was a two-time winner for Balding and finished runner-up to the very good stayer, Gregory, in the Queens Vase at the Royal meeting las year. Whilst he hasn’t shot the lights out in Australia, he was working home in stealthy style without threatening when fifth in the Moonee Valley Cup last time. He gives the impression that he’ll enjoy stepping up to two miles, and he goes from the very foot of the handicap.

23. THE MAP (23)
Rachel King / Dan Clarken & Oopy MacGillivray

Consistent mare that has won nine of her 32 starts, and whilst she wouldn’t be the most obvious winner, she does have a few things in her favour. She showed she gets the trip when runner-up in Adelaide Cup. She also has a good record at Flemington, winning two of her three starts, and she took out a lessor race on this card last year, so the occasion won’t get to her. She won the Ramsden when last seen here in May and whilst she has more on her plate here, she goes from the foot of the handicap carrying 14lb less than she did that day.

24. TRUST IN YOU (5)
Mark Du Plessis / Bruce Wallace & Grant Cooksley

Kiwi gelding who stays but looks outclassed in this spot. He’s had three runs in Australia in the lead-up to this, with his best effort when fourth in the Metropolitan behind Land Legend, and whilst he was making inroads that day, he dives into deeper waters here.

TIM CARROLL’S VERDICT:

Vauban brings the best form to the race and if you knew for sure that he’d run to his top, you’d be prepared to take a far shorter price than he currently is. However, he bombed badly in this last year, and its either a case of ‘all-in’ or oppose. Onesmoothoperator looked in rude health when scooting up in the Geelong Cup, which has proven to be a winning trial for the internationals over the years, and he does possess a strong finish for a stayer, which will hold him in good stead here.

Buckaroo has a tricky draw, and I doubt there’s been too many winners of the race that haven’t won beyond 9f previously, but his second in the Caulfield Cup is the best trial of the locals and he seems to be improving, despite being a 6-year-old. Sea King, who goes from the foot of the handicap with Hollie Doyle flying in for the ride, is low mileage for his age, and whilst he has more on his plate, he was hugely impressive when winning the Bendigo Cup, having also run with merit in defeat in the Ebor, which has always been a strong pointer for this. Interpretation ran better than the bare result when sixth in the race last year, in what was a stronger renewal than this, and he’ll also enjoy stepping back up to two miles.

ABSURDE put up as good a performance in the race last year as any of the beaten brigade, sticking on strongly despite taking it up a long way out, and with the race being dominated by the closers off what was a strong gallop. Like last year he had his last run at the end of August, and although he took a different route this year, he ran to a 6lb higher mark in this year’s lead up. Willie Mullins hadn’t had him all that long before last year’s race and I’ve no doubt he’s improved him since then. He has what looks to be a favourable draw, and with three-time Melbourne Cup winner Kerrin McEvoy picking up the ride, the stars looked to have aligned.

TIM CARROLL’S 1-2-3-4-5:
1. ABSURDE

2. Sea King

3. Interpretation

4. Onesmoothoperator

5. Buckaroo

Best longshot: Fancy Man

The picture gives a clue to the answer

What is the richest two mile race in the world?

Picture credit: flemingtontraders.co.au

The Melbourne Cup at AUS$8 million is the richest two mile race in the world.

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