Turf Talk Newsletter – 03 December, 2024

Poets Warrior has stamped hlimself as the most exciting stayer in the country and landed a hattrick at the Big T on Saturday. (Picture: JC Photos)

The Mike and Adam Azzie-trained Poets Warrior is turning out to be a most exciting stayer and is a testament to the training and horse care skills of the Azzies and the patience of his owners Glen Mackintosh and Justus van Wyk.

The big five-year-old gelding has only had 12 starts because he attained an injury midway through his three-year-old season and was off the track for close to two years.

The Azzies felt it was worth nurturing him back knowing of his ability and they could not have had two better owners than Mackintosh and Van Wyk, who allowed them every one of the over 600 days layoff he needed to ensure he would come back strong.

Poets Warrior has won exactly half of his 12 starts.

He won three out of eight starts before his layoff and has won three out of four since coming back, including a Listed race and a Non-Black Type.

This big horse is by the SA Derby-winning Australian-bred son of Redoute’s Choice, Wylie Hall, whose other Gr 1 win was in the Premier’s Champions Challenge over 2000m.

Redoute’s Choice is a speed influence and Poets Warrior seems to have got some from him, while he gets stamina from Wylie Hall.

The tactics for the big chestnut are simple … bounce him out and allow him to use his big action in front. In the straight just sit on him and his big stride will stretch them. Then ask him for more at the 300m mark and he picks it up a notch and pulls clear.

The first inkling of what an exciting horse he was happened in his fourth start in September 2022 when he was stepped up to 2000m at Turffontein Inside. He won his maiden there by five lengths under Diego de Gouveia.
He didn’t fare too well in his first two starts out of the maidens, both over 1800m, and the handicapper dropped his merit rating to 83.

He won over 1800m first time out off that mark.

However, he was a revelation in his next start when stepped up to 2400m and galloping home a five length winner.

However, then came the injury enforced layoff.

His comeback after 20 months off was over 2000m and he was given a good reintroduction by Craig Zackey, who was not hard on him when finishing a 4,25 length fourth to the decent sort Thunee Playa.

He was then stepped up to 2600m and won from the front under Gavin Lerena by 4,10 lengths.

He then ran in the Listed Allied Steelrode Java Stakes over 2400m on Onamission Charity Mile day and with Rachel Venniker able to make the light weight of 50,5kg he once again dominated from the front to win by 3,25 lengths.

On Saturday he ran in the Non-Black Type ROA Stayers over 3200m carrying 60kg with Lerena back up. He took the race by the scruff of the neck as usual and then pulled away from them when asked the question to win by 3,25 lengths.

Poets Warrior is thus unbeaten over staying trips in four starts to date and has done it easily.

Lerena got off on Saturday and told owner Glen Mackintosh that he still had more in the tank at the line.

The handicappers have raised Poets Warrior to 110, but there seems to be no stopping this big stayer and his huge stride.

He is the sort of horse people will make a special effort to go and watch live as he is an imposing and impressive specimen and equally impressive to watch in action.

He is sure to have the crowd abuzz wherever he goes.

Picture: The mighty seven-times champion sire Jet Master.

Sarah Whitelaw

There can be no denying that the late Jet Master was one of the greatest thoroughbred stallions ever bred in South Africa.

Seven-time champion Sire in South Africa, Jet Master was Leading Sire of 2YOs in 2004-2005 and has headed the Leading Broodmare Sires premiership on four occasions.

Jet Master’s statistics as a stallion make for very impressive reading. Of his 658 foals to race, 512 (78%) found the winners’ enclosure at least, and 75 (11%) were stakes winners.

His ability to sire champions was also not in question, with Jet Master’s 22 individual Grade One winners including such Equus Champions as Pocket Power, J J The Jet Plane, Mythical Flight, In The Fast Lane, Past Master, and Yorker.

The charismatic son of Rakeen also left his mark on the international stage, with his son J J The Jet Plane winning all of the 2010 G1 Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Sprint, 2009 G3 Al Quoz Sprint, 2011 G2 Al Quoz Sprint and 2009 Listed Leisure Stakes.

Jet Master also sired Singapore champion Lizarre, while his globetrotting daughter River Jetez was victorious in the 2011 G2 Balanchine, and finished second in both the 2011 G1 Dubai Duty Free and 2011 G1 Singapore Airlines International Cup.

Jet Master left a lasting impression on the (now G1 World Sports Betting Cape Town) Met, with his offspring Pocket Power, River Jetez and Past Master winning the Met from 2007-2011 in a remarkable show of dominance.
South Africa’s Joint Horse Of The Year in 1999, the eight-time G1 winning Jet Master continues to make his presence felt on the South African turf. A truly exceptional broodmare sire, whose daughters have already thrown more than 50 stakes winners including champions and exciting young sires Hawwaam and Jet Dark, and fellow champions Lady In Black, Edict Of Nantes and Rainbow Bridge. The latter, one of three G1 winners produced by the Jet Master mare Halfway To Heaven, was Horse Of The Year, Equus Champion Older Male and Equus Champion Middle Distance Horse of 2020-2021.

This season, Jet Master mares have been responsible for more than 50 winners, including 2024 G3 Cape Mile winner Rascallion (out of the Jet Master mare Sofala). Jet Master is also the broodmare sire of exciting three-year-old Greaterix (like Rascallion, a son of Vercingetorix), while Fiery Pegasus (runner-up in both this season’s G2 Betway Joburg Spring F and M Challenge and G3 Betway Fillies Mile) is out of the Jet Master mare Scorched.

Jet Master’s sire sons have also made quite a splash in South Africa. This was most evident at the recent Betway Summer Cup meeting, where Jet Master sons were responsible for the winners of the G1 Betway Summer Cup, G2 Betway Dingaans and G3 New Turf Carriers Merchants.

Jet Master horse Master Of My Fate, who currently heads the South African General Sires list for 2024-2025, is the sire of 2024 Summer Cup hero Atticus Finch. One of 27 stakes winners (and one of four G1 winners thus far for Master Of My Fate), Atticus Finch, also victorious in the 2023 G3 Betway Victory Moon Stakes, took his earnings to over R4.1 million with his first Grade One win.

Atticus Finch joins Sentbydestiny, Zarina and champion Tempting Fate as G1 winners sired by Master Of My Fate, whose Listed Spook Express Handicap winning half-sister Justthewayyouare ranks as the dam of South African Triple Crown winning sire Malmoos. Master Of My Fate, Atticus Finch aside, is having another good season in 2024-2025, with his flagbearers including G3 Betway Victory Moon Stakes winner Greeting My Master, Listed Laisserfaire Stakes queen Miss Marguerite and G3 Cape Mile runner-up Zapatillas.

Another son of Jet Master, Pomodoro, was South Africa’s Leading First Season Sire of 2017-2018. The sire of recent G3 New Turf Carriers Merchants winner Mount Pilatus, Pomodoro made a name for himself as the sire of Equus Champion Return Flight, 2020 G1 Cape Racing Presents The Cape Guineas winner Russian Rock and R5 000 000 million plus earner Cirillo. The latter finished either first, second or third in no fewer than 13 graded races!

Pomodoro is also the sire of Rule By Force, who ran third to Atticus Finch in the G1 Betway Summer Cup.
Skitt Skizzle, a half-brother to exported G1 winner Zeeno, was yet another son of Jet Master to make his presence felt on the South African turf. From a small number of runners, the late Skitt Skizzle came up with some classy performers including G3 Sycamore Sprint winner Tropic Sun, Castle Tankard winner True Beauty, Secretariat Stakes queen Cordillera and R800 000 plus earner Tierra Del Fuego. (Both Pomodoro and Skitt Skizzle were sired by Jet Master out of mares by Northern Guest, with this cross also producing globetrotting champion J J The Jet Plane and fellow champion In The Fast Lane).

Jet Master’s blue-blooded son, and G2 Astrapak 1900 winner, Royal Air Force, a half-brother to Met winning champion Imperious Sue, left behind graded stakes winners Goodtime Gal and Dharma, as well as G1 L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate runner-up Copper Force.

Yet another son of Jet Master to make his mark, despite having had limited opportunities, is the blue-blooded Lance. Held in high regard by his connections, Lance defeated none other than subsequent Triple Crown/Summer Cup winner Louis The King when he won the Listed Secretariat Stakes of 2013.

Despite having had few opportunities at stud, Lance has made his mark as the sire of brilliant champion, and scintillating recent G2 Betway Dingaans winner Quid Pro Quo, and he is another feather in the cap of his great sire Jet Master.

Mike Miller not only won the first baby race of the KZN season yet again at Hollywoodbets Scottsville on Sunday, but he did the one-two-three with the filly Siesta Sunset (Querari), the colt Holds The Key (What A Winter) and the colt Atlantic Breeze (Captain Of All). (Candiese Lenferna Photography)

The racing public will be looking forward to seeing Quid Pro Quo out again and they can also look forward to seeing her full sister, Dee Dee’s Delight, an unraced two-year-old who is being readied in the Summerveld yard of Mike Miller.

Meanwhile, Mike was once again to the fore on Sunday in the first KZN baby race of the season, which he wins virtually every year, and, furthermore, the yard’s crack filly Just Reckless has strengthened and improved and should have a fine season.

Sterling Miller said about Dee Dee’s Delight, “She is quirky like Quid Pro Quo, so she has a lead pony everyday, but she’s very nice. She is doing everything right at the moment. I don’t think she will be an early juvenile. She is definitely improving as she goes along, but she is not a ball of speed and is definitely looking for 1200m, 1400m and 1600m. She is just like her sister.”

He believed she would be out by the end of February to the beginning of March.

Sterling added, “She’s looking extremely cheap now, we picked her up for only R340,000.”

The sale, the BSA KZN Yearling Sale, came at the right time as it was after Quid Pro Quo’s Gr 1 Allan Robertson victory and before she had proved that was no fluke by winning both the Gr 2 Zulu Kingdom Explorer Golden Slipper over 1400m and the Gr 1 Douglas Whyte Thekwini Stakes over 1600m to become the first in history to do that treble.

On Sunday the Miller yard achieved the one-two-three in KZN’s first baby race of the year to restore normalcy as their perennial winning of this race was interrupted for the first time in a while last year when Louis Goosen’s Ibhele touched off the Miller-trained Fine One.

The online archives for KZN racing only go back to 2017 and they show that Miller won the first juvenile race of the season in KZN with Vertical Descent in 2017, with Bound By Duty in 2018, with Sheldon in 2020, with Royal Sovereign in 2021 and with Sovereign Grant in 2022 … and he has done it again this year with Siesta Sunset.

However, his dominance of this race stretches for many years beyond 2017.

Talking about the secrets of success in this race Sterling Miller said, “There is a lot of groundwork that needs to be done. There is six or seven months of solid cantering and proper groundwork. The grass gallops are only the cherry on the top at the end.”

Asked whether he was surprised by the result on Sunday, he replied, “It surprised me that we ran first, second and third, because there was so much talk for the other horses in the race. There was talk that there were a few horses that were deemed to be unbeatable, but obviously training juveniles is not as straight forward as people think.

The betting suggested the What A Winter colt Holds The Key was the one to beat as he is not only a half-brother to the very quick Rafeef gelding Mover And Shaker, but stable jockey Tristan Godden was also aboard.

However, he was scythed down late by the stablemate Siesta Sunset, a Querari filly with Mathew Thackeray aboard.

Sterling believed the betting worked chiefly on jockey arrangements, but reckoned there was also some guesswork.

He added, “If you look at the weights it is very difficult for the colts to beat the fillies. The filly was always going to be right there at the weights and on the day she just pitched up a little bit more advanced than the colts.”

A look at the prices of the last few Miller winners of this race Vertical Descent was 9/10 favourite and there were no fillies in the race that year,  Bound By Duty was 8/10 and fillies filled the next four places, Sheldon was 28/10 favourite and beat the decent filly Aisling home, Royal Sovereign led home a Miller quartet in 2021 but was a 10/1 shot whilst the 25/11 favourite Silver Ducat could only manage a 1,20 length third and Sovereign Grant was 28/10 favourite and won comfortably.

So the betting is usually a good guide.

Sterling said Holds The Key had been showing the most pace at home, but he felt he was still a little bit round on race day and reckoned he would have improved with the run.

He said the public should watch out for many more Miller-trained juveniles still to come out.

Of others to watch out for Sterling said their Gr 2 Debutante winner Just Reckless had improved.

He said, “It is actually scarey how much she has improved since her holiday. She is showing us some really good work, she had a grass gallop on Monday. There are a few options for her including the Gr 3 Mother Russia Stakes over 1400m at Turffontein on January 5 or otherwise the African Holly Stakes against older males over 1100m, also on January 5 at Hollywoodbets Scottsville. Everybody who has ridden her says she feels stronger than last season. I think she is in for a great, great season.”

Although the Miller yard have a reputation for juvenile success, they have actually changed their buying strategy and are buying for classic success these days.

They are a yard who look to have a bright future.

Delighted connections of the Betway Summer Cup winner Atticus Finch. (JC Photos) 

Handicapping Ratings Update (NHA Press Release)

Betway Summer Cup (Grade 1)

ATTICUS FINCH has had his merit rating raised from 112 to 121 following his success in the Betway Summer Cup (Grade 1) (Handicap) over 2000m on the Turffontein standside course on Saturday. The Handicappers were of the view that the 2nd placed finisher PURPLE PITCHER made for a suitable line horse, which leaves him unchanged on a mark of 123. It must be borne in mind that ATTICUS FINCH’s adjustment includes the under-sufferance amount of 7 points as this race was benchmarked at 119 = 54kg at the bottom end of the weights. This benchmark ensures that the race keeps a minimum standard of 119.

The other runners to get increases in ratings were 3rd place finisher RULE BY FORCE, who went up from 112 to 117 and 4th place finisher MADISON VALLEY, who went up to 117 from 110. RULE BY FORCE was 7 points under sufferance but finished 2 points (1.15 length) behind the line horse and MADISON VALLEY was 10 points under sufferance but finished 3 points (1.25 length) behind the line horse, hence their respective adjustments.

The following horses were given drops in ratings. FRANCES ETHEL was dropped from 118 to 117, PUERTO MANZANO was dropped from 120 to 119, FUTURE PEARL was dropped to 117 from 118, LITIGATION was dropped to 113 from 114, MY SOUL MATE was dropped by 3 pounds from 108 to 105, HOTARUBI was dropped to 114 from 115 and lastly PURE PREDATOR was dropped to 118 from 119.

Betway Dingaans (Grade 2)

QUID PRO QUO had her rating adjusted from 112 to 115 after her impressive win in the Betway Dingaans (Grade 2) over 1600m at Turffontein on Saturday. The Handicappers were of the view that 2nd placed FIRE ATTACK made for the most suitable line horse here and he remained on a rating of 111. In assessing QUID PRO QUO’s winning margin, the Handicappers observed that this filly won by far easier than the numerical official margin and further noted that she was clearly eased down before the finish, hence her adjustment to 115 from 112.

GREATERIX, was adjusted to 106 from 105 while 4th placed PARISIAN WALKWAY and 5th placed CHESTNUT BOMBER were raised from 97 to 101 and 97 to 99 respectively. The only other horse that was given an increase was ZANTHAR, who was increased from 83 to 86 to ensure that he is not rated lower than the 85 rated DANCE KING who he beat at level weights here.

Two horses were given ratings drops of 2 pounds each, WAHEED and ZIP CODE were both dropped from 107 to 105 and 94 to 92 respectively.

New Turf Carriers Merchants (Grade 3)

MOUNT PILATUS saw his merit rating increased from 100 to 106 after he accounted for his rivals in the New Turf Carriers Merchants (Grade 3) (Handicap) over 1160m at Turffontein on Saturday.

Here it was 3rd placed MELECH who was considered to be the most suitable line horse, leaving him unchanged on a rating of 117. The Handicappers noted that MELECH was carried in, in the concluding stages and objected against the runner-up PISTOL PETE, however the Stewards were of the opinion that MELECH would not have finished ahead of PISTOL PETE and overruled the objection. The Handicappers also felt that the runner-up PISTOL PETE was unexposed at open Grade 3 handicap level and ruled him out as a suitable line horse. He was the only other runner besides the winner to have his rating increased and was adjusted from 112 to 113.

The following horses were given drops, SHELDON was dropped from 110 to 108, RULERSHIP was dropped from 119 to 118, RED BOMBER was dropped from 107 to 104 and QUANTUM THEORY was dropped from 111 to 109 and GIMMEANOTHERCHANCE was dropped to 112 from 115.

Betway Fillies Mile (Grade 3)

WORLD OF ALICE was increased to 108 from 101 after winning the Betway Fillies Mile (Grade 3) over 1600m at Turffontein on Saturday. The Handicappers were of the opinion that the 4th placed finisher FROZEN FANTASY made for the most suitable line horse and she remained on a rating of 103. The runner-up FIERY PEGASUS who finished 0.25 lengths behind the 108 rated winner, was adjusted accordingly to 107 from 105. WILLY MEET AGAIN had to be capped at a rating of 102 even after beating the 103 rated line horse FROZEN FANTASY at level weights, courtesy of the arbitrary ratings cap of 4 points for the placed runners in the race conditions.

No runners received drops to their ratings in this event.

Betway Carry On Alice Stakes (Grade 3) Formerly the Magnolia Handicap (Grade 3)

CHASING HAPPINESS had her rating adjusted from 103 to 109 after narrowly landing the Betway Carry On Alice Stakes (Grade 3) over 1160m at Turffontein. 4th Placed MIA MOO was considered to be the most suitable line horse here and she remained unchanged on a mark of 103.

The runner-up ELEGANT ICE and 3rd placed GARLANDSOFGREENERY had to be capped to ratings of 108 and 94 respectively, courtesy of the arbitrary 3 points cap placed on rating adjustments in the race conditions.

Two fillies were given a drop of 1 point each, TROPPO VELOCE was dropped to 106 from 107 and ONE FELL SWOOP was dropped to 103 from 104.

Rachel King boots home Oversubscribed at the Valley last year (Picture: HKJC).

Rachel King takes added confidence into second bid for International Jockeys’ Championship history
Australian-based jockey returns to Happy Valley contest on a high after first-leg success last year

by Jay Rooneyon (South China Morning Post)

Buoyed by a strong showing on her Hong Kong debut last year, Rachel King will carry added confidence into her second tilt at the Longines International Jockeys’ Championship (IJC) at Happy Valley on Wednesday night.

The British-born, Australian-based jockey made a dream start on her IJC debut when she won the first leg of the four-race series on Oversubscribed.

She finished third overall behind Vincent Ho Chak-yiu in an experience she feels will make her better placed to challenge for the crown this year.

“I’ve probably got a higher level of confidence going into it this year, having already ridden at the track,” King said. “To get my first ride to win was huge and it probably did release a bit of pressure.

“Like I said last year when I first looked at the track, it’s not too dissimilar to a few of the Australian tracks and probably more similar to an Aussie track than say a European track.

“So I felt like I did have a bit of an advantage there and definitely coming back for the second year, I feel like one of the locals now. It won’t be easy, but more comfortable.”

King will compete against 11 of the world’s best jockeys in the prestigious contest including seven-time Hong Kong champion rider Zac Purton, James McDonald, champion Briton Ryan Moore, Japanese star Yuga Kawada and reigning IJC victor Vincent Ho Chak-yiu.

She will chase another slice of history, joining Hollie Doyle in bidding to become the first female rider to win the IJC.

In a busy year riding abroad, King became the first female to win a Group race in Japan and was the first Australian-based jockey to ride at the famous Breeders’ Cup meeting in the United States last month.

King will ride Super Sixty, Super Baby, Samarkand and Storming Dragon on Wednesday night, with Super Baby and last-start winner Storming Dragon her best chances.

She is excited to again team up with Super Baby’s trainer Mark Newnham, having won her first Group One on the former Australian-based handler’s filly, Maid Of Heaven, in the Spring Champion Stakes six years ago.

“Mark’s been a huge part of my career in Australia,” King said.

“I rode my first Group One, Group Two and Group Three winners for Mark. He was part of Gai [Waterhouse’s] stable when I was apprentice there.

“[Storming Dragon] won last start, it’s in good form and going well and I got a bit of a push from Mark this morning. Mark’s normally a very good judge, that’s why I’ve always enjoyed riding for him, so he’s keen that it can run a nice race.”

Doyle, the first woman to win a leg of the IJC in 2020, will compete in the HK$1.5 million event for the fifth consecutive year.

“I’m just lucky to be noticed by the Hong Kong Jockey Club, so it’s a huge privilege,” the British rider said.

“I’ve had a winner, but I’ve not been so lucky since. I hope this year I can add to my tally.”

Doyle rated Soleil Fighter her best chance in the third leg on Wednesday night.

Moore was installed the $5.5 favourite in the Jockey Club’s fixed-odds market on Tuesday, but eased to $6.5 after Ho and Purton firmed to $5.5 equal favouritism. Doyle and King are at $15.

Luhamba Phambili has been tipped to win the 8th (Picture: Wayne Marks)

Hollywoodbets Kenilworth Wednesday Formguides And Selections 

Race 1

2 MRS SHACKLETON ran a cracking race against winners last time, she fought hard all the way to the line when finishing second behind Casino Ace, with a similar performance she will go very close to winning. 4 ELSINORE was unfortunately scratched at the gates in his last start, he absolutely took off to run a great second behind Shipindani at Hollywoodbets Durbanville on the 19th of October, he is still improving and will go very close with a repeat performance of that run. 8 FENCING CAPTAIN was gelded on the 5th of November, he is a speedy type that will try and lead them from start to finish, include him into all bets. 5 TOWNSMAN will need to improve significantly to win, his form is just fair and he might be able to sneak into the Quartets.

(Brandon Bailey: 2 – 4 – 8 – 5)

Race 2

7 ROUGAROUIN slowly started to drop to a very competitive rating when finishing a lovely third behind Augusta Blue in his last start, he unfortunately carries a big weight on Wednesday afternoon which won’t make life easy for him, but on his best form he will be right there in the finish again. 1 GRAVITY ran a fair race last time, off this mark in a race that is lacking strong and consistent form, he must have a good each way chance. 4 ELECTRIC FEELS has been in tremendous form of late, she needs a particular ride, if things work out for this mare, she will be running on strongly late. 2 XPLICIT CONTENT has run some decent races, he likes to race up on speed and should have a good place chance in this tricky looking race.

(Brandon Bailey: 7 – 1 – 4 – 2)

Race 3

4 ALEX MILLER ran on strongly behind Goodnessgraciousme in her last start when finishing third, she is a progressive filly that will go very close in this race from a good draw. 3 WHITE WATERS ran a lovely race behind Lavender Bay last time when finishing third, she was drawn badly on that occasion and stayed on really well all the way to the line, from a good draw here, she will be very competitive. 1 SPINMYANGELSSPIN was very disappointing when heavily supported in the market behind Berry’s Boogie on the 5th of November, she is much better than that performance and should improve lengths now that she steps up in trip, watch her closely. 8 TAP SHOES never really got into the race from a wide draw last time, she might be able to earn if she can improve from that performance.

(Brandon Bailey: 4 – 3 – 1 – 8)

Race 4

7 NATIVE RULER ran a great race behind a very smart horse last time, the formlines of that race have worked out really well, he should love the step up in trip and will be very hard to beat. 2 AFRIQUE is a nice big colt that really enjoyed the 1600m trip last time, he ran a super race when finishing second behind Gnarly from a wide draw at Hollywoodbets Durbanville, now that he gets a good draw, he will go very close. 11 GRAN CANARIA did everything right on debut when finishing fourth behind King Viserys, he was poorly drawn on that occasion and still managed to finish just under one length behind the winner, with some luck in running, he should be able to earn again for the connections. 1 RED DAWN gets the blinkers fitted; on his best form he will have a nice place chance.

(Brandon Bailey: 7 – 2 – 11 – 1)

Race 5

5 TOTHEMOONANDBACK has been very consistent of late, his last run behind Groovejet was excellent, this looks to be the perfect race for him, and he will take lots of beating on his best form. 1 OZARK was extremely gutsy in his last race when winning and beating Hang Out The Stars, he hit the front a long way from home and still managed to find plenty in the finish, Richard Fourie sticks with this consistent gelding and will be given every chance again from a good draw, include him into all bet types. 4 GNARLY quickened up well to exit the maiden ranks on the 26th of October, he will need to improve even further to win again, but his in good form and must be respected. 2 SUMMER NIGHT CITY gets a further rating drop, she might be able to sneak into the places at a decent price.

(Brandon Bailey: 5 – 1 – 4 – 2)

Race 6

3 DREAM SEARCHER ran on strongly from a wide draw behind Ozark on the 9th of November when finishing third, from a good draw here she will have the run of the race and will go very close to winning. 5 VERONIQUE steps up in trip again to 1400m, her sprinting form has been very good, at this level she will always have a good each way chance. 9 HANG OUT THE STARS will need some luck in running from a wide draw, her recent run behind Ozark was very good, she is extremely game and consistent, watch her closely. 4 BLACK PATH had no luck last time and still managed to run a decent race behind Senhora Victoria, she will need to improve a good few lengths to win, but with a similar performance of her last start, she can definitely finish amongst the places.

(Brandon Bailey: 3 – 5 – 9 – 4)

Race 7

5 MIRACULOUS quickened up in devastating fashion when beating Englefield Green on the 5th of November at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth, the yard think highly of this filly, she will love the step up in trip and will be very hard to beat. 1 SWIATEK could be absolutely anything, she beat Miraculous in a close finish on debut, from a good draw and with natural improvement on the cards, she must be respected in a huge way. 9 FAMILY POWER has unfortunately drawn poorly for this Class 4 event, her last run behind Scarlet Macaw was very good, with a similar performance here, she will be a big danger to them all in the finish. 6 Qhawekazi improved dramatically in her last start when finishing fourth from a wide draw, if she can back that run up here, she will have a good money chance.

(Brandon Bailey: 5 – 1 – 9 – 6)

Race 8

3 LUHAMBA PHAMBILI won extremely well last time when beating Roman Agent, the form of that race has worked out perfectly, he is a smart gelding that likes to race up on speed, he will be very hard to beat in this race and probably one of the better bets on the card. 9 TENANGO returned to the races from a long rest and won with authority in his last start, he travelled beautifully through the race and then quickened up like a smart horse in the making, he will be attacking the line hard and will be a huge danger for Luhamba Phambili. 4 ELUSIVE WINTER needed his last run, he should be cherry ripe now and could earn some money for the connections on his best form. 2 ICY BLAST gets a nice rating drop, he has been running against stronger in the past, watch him closely.

(Brandon Bailey: 3 – 9 – 4 – 2)

Race 9

7 ROYAL LYTHAM moved up really well in her last start when finishing second behind December Dawn, her recent form is definitely good enough to win a race like this. 5 GRUE OF ICE gets a further rating drop, she ran a lovely race on the 16th of November when finishing fourth, at this level she will always be competitive and must have a nice money chance. 6 UNITED WE STAND should appreciate the drop in trip, with some cover early and with no weight on her back, she can run into the places at a decent price. 9 WHY NOT JACKIE will appreciate racing back up the straight at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth, she needs cover early, if the race works out for her, she will be storming home late at a big price, include her into all bets.

(Brandon Bailey: 7 – 5 – 6 – 9)

Samarkand has a chance in the 7th (Picture: HKJC)

Tim Carroll (At The Races)

Tim hit five winners and the placepot on Sunday and now has picks for Wednesday’s Longines International Jockeys’ Challenge at Happy Valley

The coming week sees the pinnacle of racing on the Hong Kong calendar with Sunday’s Sha Tin International meeting featuring four highly valuable Group 1s, but before we get to the main course, we are off to Happy Valley for Wednesdays Longines International Jockeys Challenge featuring some of the greatest riding talent in the world.

Twelve elite jockeys will contest four selected races (4, 5, 7 & 8) with the winning rider taking home HK$500,000, making the IJC the richest jockey challenge in the world. This year’s contingent of internationals riders are as follows, Ryan Moore, William Buick, James McDonald, Hollie Doyle, Colin Keane, Rachel King, Yuga Kawada and Mickeal Barzalona, whilst Zac Purton, Karis Teetan, Hugh Bowman & 2023 IJC winner, Vincent Ho, will fly the flag for the locals.

Now onto this week’s selections.

Race 1: Class 5 Australia Day Handicap (12H30 SA Time) (1 mile)
2 KASA PAPA, who was a twice winner in Australia, has been costly to follow having yet to win in twenty-seven local starts but he has only recently dropped down to this level and both runs in the grade would suggest he should be winning soon enough. The selection was beaten a lip here two back with the first two clear of the others including a subsequent winner in third. He then ran better than the bare result last time when held up on the inside at the top of the straight having travelled strongly to that point. Bowman sticks solid and with a clear round, he should be in the firing line.

Dangers:
3 The Azure is a seven-start maiden that hit the frame two back before unexpectedly leading last time to finish fifth, but he does drop down to the bottom level for the first time & he’ll find this a bit more to his liking.
1 Ivictoriam showed very little his first six starts but ran with merit in defeat when placed form a high draw last time which was his first spin at this level, and he should have more to offer.
6 Invincible Missile is a veteran that hasn’t won for a while, but he has descended the handicap and ran well in defeat when only beaten a nose in second last time, but he is likely to be ridden cold from the high draw & may need some luck.

Race 2: Class 5 France Handicap (13H00 SA Time) (6 furlongs)
5 SUPER EAGLE is no superstar, but he did win over course & trip last season from a higher mark in a grade above this and arrives having only been beaten a lip over course & trip last month with a few of these in behind when he met with support in the market. To be fair, he does have just the one local win from thirty-four starts, but most of these have a similar profile and he should have all the favours from the inside draw.

Dangers:
8 Speedy Chariot was just over a length and two spots behind the selection last time when a beaten favourite and he does meet that rival on 3lb better terms, with Hollie Doyle picking up the ride.
4 Good View Glory, who won over five-furlongs here in June, will strip fitter for two runs back and he wasn’t beaten far last time despite meeting with interference that saw the offending rider banned.
1 Ever Smart is yet to place in seven starts but he takes a drop in grade and was beaten less than two-lengths in a deeper race than this when last seen here in September.

Race 3: Class 4 Great Britain Handicap (13H30 SA Time) (1 mile)
3 MIGHTY STRENGTH will take a leap of faith as he did bomb at Sha Tin last time with no excuses, but the Ricky Yiu 4yo is a low mileage progressive type that broke his duck over seven-furlongs at Sha Tin on just his third start in July, and he made an eye-catching return when runner-up on his seasonal reappearance. The selection will be having his first spin at Happy Valley, but this will be the first time he draws a single figure gate since when he won, and he should enjoy stepping up to the mile for the first time.

Dangers:
2 Lucky Touch had all the favours camped on the speed having never left the rail when breaking his duck over course & trip last time, however, he did win comfortably & seemingly with something in the locker that night, but he does go up 7lbs & has a tricky draw.
12 Youth Power won over this trip at Sha Tin two back before an unplaced effort last time when stepping up to this level, but he had a tough trip planted wide all the way that night and the race should set up far kinder from the low draw.
4 Corleone, who is having his first spin at Happy Valley having placed on debut at Sha Tin, is twice raced maiden that wasn’t going to win last time but should have finished closer having been tight for room when sixth over a mile, and Bowman maintains the partnership.

Race 4: Class 4 International Jockeys Championship (1st Leg) Handicap (14H10 SA Time) (5 furlongs)
4 CHAMPION METHOD goes up 5lb having won over course & trip last time by a narrow margin, which was his third success, but first here at Happy Valley. Although he only just got there that night, he had to switch from the inside around horses’ half-way up the straight and would have won by further if not for that. The Danny Shum 4yo is no leader, but he was given a bit to do off what was a strong gallop last time, and he should be able to sit a bit closer from the low draw here, and in a race that looks no stronger than the one he won, he’ll be a hard nut to crack.

Dangers:
3 Lean Master is a consistent type that was a nose behind the selection last time, who he meets on 4lb better terms, and he is well drawn given William Buick will most likely look to punch forward.
2 Grand Nova, who is a low mileage 4yo that should have more to offer & gets the services of Ryan Moore, draws the outside but he’s a late closer that would be ridden cold regardless and his last run was better than the result would suggest.
8 Circuit Seven is a veteran and his wins are few & far between, but he wasn’t far behind the top two selections, who he meets on better terms, when fourth last time and the race maps kindly from the low draw, with Colin Keane to ride.

Race 5: Class 4 Class 4 International Jockeys Championship (2nd Leg) Handicap (14H40 SA Time) (1 mile)
4 JUMBO FORTUNE has just one local win from forty-four starts, but he did start off on a high mark due to being a Group 3 winner in Australia, and that local win did come from an 8lb higher mark last season, and he has been placed from 19lb above his current assessment. The selection is a hold-up type, and due to his run style, he hasn’t always had the rub of the green, but he arrives having run with merit in defeat several times since joining the David Eustace yard. This fellow will need things to fall into place due to his run style, but there are a few here that like to get on with it, which will give him something to aim at, and the first-time visor may sharpen him up a tad.

Dangers:
6 Prince Alex took twenty-five starts to break his local duck when winning over course & trip last month, but he did it the tough way that night when planted wide without cover, and although he goes up 5lb, he has placed from marks up to 20lb above his current assessment.
9 Charming Steed hadn’t won for a long time but then found form at the back-end of last season, winning two of his final three starts over course & trip, and whilst there’s no guarantee’s he’ll be in that sort of form on his belated seasonal reappearance, he has a favourable low stall given he has been ridden aggressive recently, and Purton has drawn the ride.
5 Cant Go Wong has been costly to follow as he’s been turned over when on the pointy end of the betting several times since winning at a level below this in March, but he continues to be there abouts, and he does pick up the services of William Buick.

Race 6: Class 4 Ireland Handicap (15H10 SA Time) (6 furlongs)
4 MASTEROFMYUNIVERSE was runner-up over course & trip on debut when a nose behind Street Conqueror, who he meets on 3lb better terms. With plenty of upside, the John Size 3yo should be able to turn that form around with his rival, especially given how that race panned out. The selection was a tad tardy out of the gates and rattled late from near last on the bend to be denied a narrow margin. The high draw isn’t ideal, and he’ll probably have to be ridden for luck, but there’s a solid gallop on offer and with Purton on top, we’ll get plenty of assistance from the saddle.

Dangers:
10 Smart Fighter finally broke through at his fifteenth start when winning over course & trip last time, and he does go up 5lbs, but he had been consistent prior that and he should end up with the run of the race on the leaders tail from the low draw.
5 Team Happy, who is a twice winner this season, can be forgiven an unplaced effort last time when he was planted wide and made to work on the front, but this should set up far kinder from the low draw.
2 Street Conqueror goes up 5lb having won over course & trip last time with the selection in second, which was his first start for the flying Mark Newnham yard, and a repeat performance would see him right there, but he did win first-up last season and only hit the frame once in nine subsequent starts.

Race 7: Class 3 International Jockeys Championship (3rd Leg) Handicap (15H40 SA Time) (1 mile)
10 SUPER UNICORN hacked up here at a level below this in March before a slightly underwhelming performance when placed as an odds on favourite at his next start when having his first run at this level, but he bounced back to form here last time when a luckless second to Lovero, who he meets on 2lb better terms. I say luckless as he was first past the post but lost the race in the stewards’ room, and whilst under the rules it’s easy to see why the result was amended, I think most would agree that had he gone straight, he would have won. They had a few of these in behind that night, thus its looks strong guide for this, and Mickael Barzalona should have a straightforward task from the inside draw.

Dangers:
6 Daring Pursuit arrives on a three timer having won here at the end of last season then on his seasonal return when he had the selection back in third, and although he goes up 6lb and is 4lb worse off with Super Unicorn, he’s a low mileage 6yo that picks up the services of Ryan Moore.
2 Samarkand was a four-time winner on this track last season, and he arrives on the back of a good effort in defeat when beaten a nose over nine-furlongs here last time, but he does like to stalk the speed, thus he’ll need some Rachel King magic early from the high draw.
11 Aestheticism, who is a thrice winner over this trip at Sha Tin, will strip fitter for two runs back, the latest of which he flew late four fourth over ten-furlongs, and connections will be happy to see Purton draw the ride as he’s the only jockey to have won on him having been on top for all three career successes.

Race 8: Class 3 International Jockeys Championship (4th Leg) Handicap (16H10 SA Time) (6 furlongs)
9 SPICY GOLD, who represents the flying Mark Newnham yard, arrives on a four-timer and will be moving up in grade under an 8lb penalty, but he’s a progressive type that won in impressive style last time when running through the line with plenty of purpose, and I think he can go in again. The son of So You Think does dive into deeper waters, and this is a strong class 3, but he carries 10lb less at this level and the form from his last race has a solid look about it, with the second & third having had three subsequent starts between them and winning all three.

Dangers:
3 Kyrus Dragon arrives on a three-timer under a 6lb penalty having won his last two over course & trip, and although he only just got there last time, he did overcome a slightly chequered passage in the straight, and he’ll strip fitter for the first-up spin.
2 Gustosisimo is a low mileage 4yo that goes up 6lb having won over course & trip last time when he went from the front and he was only a nose behind Kyrus Dragon when they met in October, but he is 5lb worse off here.
10 Giant Leap moves up in grade under a 7lb penalty having won over course & trip last time, but he’s yet another promising type with plenty of upside and given his two wins have come when he has punched forward, the draw in 1 looks ideal.

Race 9: Class 2 Japan Handicap (16H55 SA Time) (9 furlongs)
8 STUNNING PEACH, who was runner up (known as Islandsinthestream) in behind Henry Longfellow & Los Angeles in two Group 1’s when with Joseph O’Brien, looks to have a promising future in Hong Kong. The selection closed out last season when breaking his local duck over this trip at Sha Tin on just his third start. He then made his seasonal return when fifth, beaten less than two-lengths behind Karma, who he meets on 7lb better terms, in October over the mile at Sha Tin. However, he was badly held up in the straight when going for an inside run that day and although I can’t say for sure he would have beaten the winner with a clear round, he certainly would have made it interesting. The son of Wootton Bassett has his first try at Happy Valley, but he’ll enjoy stepping back up in trip, & if he takes to the tighter circuit, he’ll be awfully hard to beat.

Dangers:
3 Chilli Chibi had five of these in behind when winning over course & trip last time and he looks a big player here, but he does go up 6lb and Purton jumps off to ride the selection.
6 Karma, who is a five-time winner from seventeen starts in Hong Kong, is a big horse with a big finish and he should get a strong enough gallop to aim at, but it is a slight concern that on his only visit to Happy Valley in November of last year when he finished second, the rider reported he didn’t appreciate racing on the tighter layout.
10 Red Hare King, who was a thrice winner over course & trip last season, is 9lb above his peak win but he’s only been outside of the top three once in his last fourteen starts on turf, when he ran fourth from a high draw, and he must be included in any exotics from the favourable draw.

WEDNESDAY’S PLACEPOT
Today’s Tote Place Pot will be races 4 through to 9. All up we will be playing 81 combinations (1x3x3x3x3x1), which will cost £8.10 for a 10p stake and so on. Good luck.

LEG 1- 4 CHAMPION METHOD

LEG 2- 4 JUMBO FORTUNE 6 PRINCE ALEX 9 CHARMING STEED

LEG 3- 4 MASTEROFMYUNIVERSE 5 TEAM HAPPY 10 SMART FIGHTER

LEG 4- 2 SAMARKAND 6 DARING PURSUIT 10 SUPER UNICORN

LEG 5- 2 GUSTOSISIMO 3 KYRUS DRAGON 9 SPICY GOLD

LEG 6- 8 STUNNING PEACH

TIM’S BEST BETS
11.30am HAPPY VALLEY
MIGHTY STRENGTH (EW)

12.10pm HAPPY VALLEY
CHAMPION METHOD (NB)

2.55pm HAPPY VALLEY
STUNNING PEACH (NAP)

The picture is of the subject

Which great Australian racehorse missed almost two years with a serious stomach ailment that saw him losing a severe amount of weight but he was eventually able to race again and he came back and won a further 15 races, 13 of which were weight for age stakes races.

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