Turf Talk Newsletter – 02 October, 2024

Cape Partners Splash Out For The Grey King

The Grey King has two wins, four seconds and a third to his name after just ten starts. (Picture: Wayne Marks)

The previously syndicated horse The Grey King was purchased by one of his syndicate members, Etienne Braun, for R1,206,000 on the BSA October Online sale today.

The former Kings Club syndicate-owned horse was easily the highest priced horse at the Sale and in fact went for more than a R1 million more than the second highest priced horse.

Braun was representing a partnership which includes Robert Bloomberg, Gina Goldsmith and Greg Bortz, Jonathan Bloch, the Stonebridge family and himself.

The Vercingetorix gelding will remain in training with Justin Snaith.

Jonathan Snaith explained the reason for the auction, “The King’s Syndicate purchased the horse and paid two years training fees up front. The two-year syndicate term was up and the fairest way to dissolve the partneship was on a public auction where all members or shareholders could also bid. This was reflected in the incredibly high price that The Grey King fetched. The syndicate members will be paid out the stakes and the purchase price of this Sale combined.”

Snaith Racing was the official vendor, although they have never at any point held any shares in the Grey King.

Justin was surprised by the price, but delighted at the same time.

Jonathan said, “I think one would have expected a price around R800,000, but he seemed to be incredibly popular.

The Grey King has thus turned out to be one of South Africa’s most successful ever syndicate horses.

He was purchased by The Kings Club for R350,000 at the Cape Racing Sales 2022 Ready to Run sale.

He earned R310,512 in stakes and adding the public auction price of R1,206,000 to that means he has gross earnings of R1,516,512. That is five times his purchase price and the profits are to be paid out to syndicate members.

The Grey King, who was bred by Maine Chance Farms, qualifies for the R5 million CRS Big Cap sales race in 2025.

Gina Goldsmith, the Kings Club syndicate manager, expressed her delight with the results, saying, “The Grey King was our first syndicated horse, and we couldn’t be prouder of him. He achieved incredible results on the track while offering members a wonderful journey and experience. Making a huge profit is such a bonus! Horses have a gift of bringing people together, and this was the case with this wonderful grey horse.”

The Grey King is officially merit rated 98.

However, he could become a Hollywoodbets Durban July horse.

His most eyecatching bit of form is giving Flag Man 5kg in a 1900m event at Hollywoodbets Greyville and losing by just 1,40 lengths.

Flag Man went on to finish a narrow second in the Gr 1 Daily News 2000 before finishing fourth in the July and fifth in the Gr 1 wfa HKJC Champions Cup.

Young Jockeys Should Copy Tactical Meastro Strydom

Young jockeys can learn a lot from Piere “Striker” Strydom’s professionalism.

The U.K. is the centre of world racing and it is noticeable how important industrymen over there regard the going. It is a regular occurrence for horses to be scratched for unsuitable going. This does not really apply in South Africa, because the going is generally fast compared to the UK and wet going usually leads to an abandonement due to the different make up of the ground here.

However, UK jockeys generally walk the course before a meeting to try and find an advantage through going bias.

Walking the course is seldom practiced in SA, probably because the going bias usually fits a trend, but the going bias is definitely as big a factor here as it is in the UK.

Using the Vaal straight course as an example, the going trend is that if the outside rail is at zero then the best going is on the outside rail, whereas if the outside rail is in, usually by ten metres, then the most favourable going will be on the inside rail.

It is important for jockeys to know this.

Some punters would have been put off by Dyce’s last two draws, seven out of ten on the Turffontein Inside track over 1000m and three out of eight down the Vaal straight on a day in which the course was set up in a way that, by trends, favoured high draws.

The maestro Strydom was clearly more worried about the draw down the straight, which many would not be worried about as some perceive draws in straight races to all be fair.

In the Turffontein Inside race Striker merely sat on Dyce from the off knowing that he would be able to get cover on the outside train, because it is tough for outside drawn horses to get over to the inside rail over that course and distance. Dyce duly got a tow, despite being three wide, and Striker used the horse’s exceptional turn of foot to win by 0,75 lengths.

However, in the straight race on Tuesday Striker thought it worthwhile to use Dyce in the early stages to get over to the outside rail.

Once he had done so he gave him a breather and this time he won even more easily. Striker just had to let Dyce go in the closing stages to beat Cliff Hanger by two lengths.

This is just one example of Strydom’s tactical mastery, that has seen him silencing the social media critics (who think he is too old) by riding to a strike rate this season of a phenomenal 31.48%.

It would be expected that all connections of a runner know the going trends, but a recent case can be pointed to which says otherwise.

In a recent meeting the outside rail was ten metres in, meaning the inside rail would be advantageous by trends.

In the first two races the best horses in the race were drawn on the outside and two of them were good enough to win.

One of the vanquished jockeys. lets’s call him Joe Soap, had been drawn favourably low in one of those races but was beaten by two decent horses drawn high.

However, it was made clear in the next race down the straight that it was only the superiority of the horses in the first two races that had enabled them to win from high draws. The number one drawn horse never looked like losing the third race and won by a wide margin despite being double figure odds.

Joe Soap did not ride in that race … and he clearly did not watch it either.

He came out for the next race down the straight and from a favourable low draw, which would have attracted some punters to have a go on his horse, he continually switched the horse outward until he was on the very outside of the field! He duly ran unplaced and well beaten.

This rider had only remembered his previous ride on the day, where he had been beaten by higher drawn horses; he had ignored the trend and had also not watched the race in which he did not ride which would have told him the trend was holding up as usual. Or perhaps he did not even know the trend.

In another recent example an odds on favourite drawn one in the first race, on a day in which the course set up meant he had the best draw by trends, was switched all the way to the middle, possibly because high draws were favourable in the previous meeting, although with a different course set. The jockey thus handed the inside rail advantage to the number two drawn horse. The rider of that horse had done his homework as he stuck to the inside rail station and duly won comfortably, despite being on a horse who was at much bigger odds than the favourite.

Praise must also be given when its due and Louis Nhlapo needs to be singled out, although he would not fall into the young jockey category.

Louis has done his homework on the big nine-year-old Written In Stone, who has a huge stride and this often hampers him in the lower division races as he can become cramped.

It is noticeable that Louis gives Written In Stone as much room to use his big stride as possible, holding him back far enough if he is following a horse and sticking his nose into gaps whenever these is an option for more room.

In his second ride on the big horse he cliched Written In Stone’s first win for 1426 days. Louis has had five successive rides on Written In Stone and earned a cheque in every one of them, including an excellent third on Tuesday. He also looked after the nine-year-old in that race as according to the stipe report he felt him not striding out freely in the concluding stages and did not persevere riding him.

"Hold" Horses Should Be Declared

Seven of the eight horses in this race are being held (via galloptv)

“Hold” horses, especially over sprint distances, are a bugbear of the Turf Talk editor.

A punter might have done his homework on a horse running in a sprint and decides it just needs a good break to have a good chance.

However, he or she then sees with dread that the horse is being held by a handler while waiting in the gates for the starter to press the button.

The chances of this horse getting a good break have now been lessened in the opinion of the Turf Talk editor.

This is not to say it should not be held – perhaps its chances of getting a good break are actually better by being held than not being held, as it might be a restless type who might even try and charge the gates before they have opened.

The point is the punter should have been informed that the horse is a “hold” horse, so that he or she can know there is added risk.

The latest example of a horse hampered by being held was the Cliffie Miller-trained Horizon filly Bretty.

The commentator said this three-year-old had jumped slowly (at Monday’s poly meeting), because she had been on the wrong foot.

That might have been true, but she was clearly perturbed by the presence of the handler and threw her head sideways towards him just before the starter pressed the button. She was duly slowly away, which effectively cost her any chance because in that race she needed to lead.

It must be pointed out that this article is in no way pointing fingers at the competence of handlers, who generally do a dangerous job admirably well. It is simply a plea for added information for the punter.

Apparently one of the reasons the “hold” factor is not seen as a viable addition to the declarations is because some officially non-hold horses might be held on the day if becoming nervous.

However, perhaps it could be worded as “official hold horse”.

This could at least narrow down the possibilities of horses who might be free of a handler and will allow them to avoid certain horses if they want to.

For example, backers of the recent heavy odds on favourite Sun In My Pocket might have been saved some big losses had he been declared an “official hold horse.”

This filly is a clear example of a horse who needs to be held as she is very restless in the stalls. She duly cost herself completely by playing up badly as the starter pressed the button and she dwelt and lost many lengths.

The next step will be to contact the NHA to get their feelings on this subject, but for now this is just a foretaste of a controversial topic.

In Hong Kong, for example, handlers are not allowed to hold horses in the starting stalls. It is up to the trainer to school the horse well enough to handle the starting procedure. That would be the best solution.

Gimmie's Countess Impressed Speed Guru Mark van Deventer

Gimmie’s Countess powers home in the Gr 3 Baker McVeigh Diana Stakes (Picture: Wayne Marks)

Mark van Deventer

Gimmie’s Countess (s/s 97 +++) stole the show at Hollywoodbets Durbanville on Saturday, winning the Diana Stakes (G3) with a performance of rare quality.

Trainer Dean Kannemeyer rates her highly on her aptitude at work; did not have much to fear from the older fillies, so expected her to run well despite not being fully wound up on her seasonal bow after some tough beats in KZN features.

What transpired was nothing short of sensational. Initially positioned midfield off a slower than expected tempo set by Royals and Unconquerable Lady, the daughter of Gimmethegreenlight was still several lengths off and being niggled along as Summer Lily (s/s 95) made what seemed a race winning move in mid- stretch.

Gimmie’s Countess then unleashed a remarkable 400m – finish sectional of 21,5 seconds to win going away and really get the cognoscenti’s tongues wagging.

Not only was the final time slightly quicker than the Matchem Stakes won half an hour later by four-year-old gelding, Questioning (83.98 vs 84.11, though neither were genuinely true run races) her come home sectional was blisteringly fast, quicker than any of the accomplished older males could manage. And that includes even her stable mate and full brother, champion, Gimme a Prince who, needing the run after a layoff due to knee issues, only got under way late with a 21.75 burst.

Questioning scored 105 + with a sectional upgrade to stay a perfect 4/4 at Durbanville. Trainer Vaughan Marshall believes that whilst very good over 1400m, he is at is absolute best over a stiff 1200m and will aim his charge at big sprints at Kenilworth over that distance during Summer.

Second placed, Montien emerged with credit, too. He raced handy and showed a fighting spirit to only succumb in the last few strides. He is one to follow this Summer in Graded races over a mile and more, given that he scored 111 in last year’s King’s Plate.

As for Gimmie’s Countess, it’s hard to peg her merit precisely at this stage. She could conceivably rate a speed score as high as 110 when factoring in that missile- like finish. Let’s take a conservative approach and wait and see how she fares at her next couple of starts, especially in true run contests against more formidable adversaries.

The dam, Real Princess is a phenomenal producer. Not only did she win the G1 SA Fillies Sprint (s/s 106), but she has foaled, Gimme a Prince (s/s 118, which is right up with the biggest numbers attained in recent years in SA); highly promising, The Real Prince (s/s 100 +) and budding star, Gimmie’s Countess.

Larry Nestadt Has Three Melbourne Cup Horses Still Standing Their Ground

The Melbourne Cup entry Royal Patronage carrying Larry Nestadt’s Australian colours to victory. (Picture: via meta (Linda Tag (joint-owner))

The Melbourne Cup reached its first declaration stage on Tuesday and big Johannesburg-based South African owner Larry Nestadt has three horses still standing their ground.

His tenth placed finisher in the Melbourne Cup last year, Military Mission (Master Craftsman), is ranked 17^th in the Order Of Entry and is one of 48 horses who have “Passed the 2024 Melbourne Cup ballot clause as of October 1, 2024.” There are two entries who are “Ballot exempt” and 22 entries who “have not passed the Melbourne Cup first ballot clause as of October 1, 2024”.

The Irish-bred import Military Mission qualified for the big race last year by winning two Gr 3s and a Gr 2.

Nestadt’s 2023 Gr 1 Metropolitan winner, the Irish-bred import Just Fine (Sea The Stars), is ranked 20^th in the order of entry. He looks likely to come into this year’s Melbourne Cup in fine condition as he has had three runs in September following a spell of five months and he runs in the Gr 3 Lexus Bart Cummings over 2520m at Flemington on Saturday.

His Irish-bred import Royal Patronage (Wootton Bassett) made a fine debut in Australia when winning a Gr 2 over 1400m at Randwick in impressive style. He followed up with a good third in an expensive race over 1600m and is entered in this Saturday’s Gr 1 TAB Epsom at Randwick over 1600m.

Royal Patronage is one of 22 horses who “have not passed the Melbourne Cup first ballot clause as of October 1, 2024”. He is ranked 51st in the order of entries.

Nestadt is a member of partnership syndicates for all three horses, all of whom are trained by Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott.

CLICK HERE TO SEE ALL THE MELBOURNE CUP ENTRIES

Can A Horse From Japan Win The Arc At Last?

Shin Emperor (Picture: Ryusei Sakai)

By Andy Newton

Sports Editor (sportscasting.com)

Published on October 02, 2024

Top Japanese racehorse Shin Emperor will head to Longchamp racecourse trying to make history and become the first runner from the country to win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

If the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe market is anything to go by with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK, then the Japanese-trained Shin Emperor will have a massive chance of creating history in Sunday’s big Longchamp race.

The 3 year-old colt is generally third best in the market – with only the French Derby winner Look De Vega and recent Prix Niel hero and current Arc favourite Sosie ahead of him.

Sunday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is a race that Japan likes to target each season, and with one of their best chances for a long time, you can expect millions of Far East horse racing fans to be glued to their TV’s on Sunday night.

The position of Shin Emperor in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe betting is largely down to two things.

Firstly a staying on third in the Japan Derby at the end of May (watch below), which came over 1m4f.

While having returned from a 111-day break Shin Emperor returned better than ever to run third behind two of the best middle distance racehorses around at the moment – Auguste Rodin and Economics – in the Irish Champion Stakes.

He was beaten only a length at the line and was again doing his best work at the finish over that 1m2f trip to suggest the step back up to 1m4f (Arc trip) will be right up his street.

Having taken in that Irish Champion Stakes off a 111-day lay-off then he’s also expected to have improved for the run. This should make him spot-on for Sunday’s Arc.

The Softer Ground Is A BIG Unknown For Shin Emperor, so despite everything pointing to a big run from Shin Emperor – those looking to take on the Japanese runner will certainly look at the ground.

It’s expected to be soft, or even heavy conditions, at Longchamp on Sunday and this is where a lot of trust has to be taken into account.

Shin Emperor is yet to race on anything softer than ‘good’. All his runs to date have come on either ‘good-to-firm’ or ‘good’.

There is some hope though when looking at Shin Emperor’s breeding. His sire, Siyouni won on heavy ground, while his Dam’s sire – Galileo – also won on heavy and soft.

Shin Emperor Career In Numbers

Runs: 7

Wins: 2

Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi

Jockey: Ryusei Sakai

Career Prize Money: £1,208,282

Last Race: 3rd Leopardstown (Irish Champion Stakes)

Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2024 Race Details

📅Date: Sunday 6th October 2024

⌚Time: 3:20pm

🏇Racecourse: Longchamp

💰Winning Purse: £2,484,348

📺 TV: ITV / Sky Racing

Past Japan Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Runners That Have Gone Close To Winning:

12 months ago, in the Arc we saw a runner for Japan – Through Seven Seas – run a cracking fourth and beaten only 1 1/4 lengths.

While prior to that in 2022, their army of runners Titleholder (11th), Stay Foolish (14th), Deep Bond (18th) and Do Deuce (19th) finished downfield.

Japan have come close to winning though, when El Condor Pasa ran second in 1999 – only getting mowed down late on by the classy Montjeu.

In 2012 Orfevre was a neck runner-up to Solemia and before that in 2006 Deep Impact was a red-hot favourite but could only manage third behind Rail Link. But the Japanese horse was later disqualified after a banned substance was found in his sample.

As well as having Shin Emperor in the 2024 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, Japan will also be cheering on the Joseph O’Brien runner Al Riffa as he’s set to be ridden by legendary Japanese jockey Yutaka Take.

55 year-old Take is the biggest rider in Japan with a monster following, plus is said to be one of the richest jockeys in the world with a staggering £700m worth.

Take, who has jocked-off regular Al Riffa rider Dylan Browne McMonagle, has ridden in the Arc ten times in the past – but, like his country, is still to win the race. His last ride in the race was on Do Deuce (19th) in the 2022 renewal.

Al Riffa was also seen winning the Grosser Preis von Berlin in Germany by 5 lengths (watch below) – which was a race recent Arc winners Alpinista and Torquator Tasso both won too.

Japan Had The Highest-Rated Flat Horse In The World In 2023.

The racehorse Equinox, who retired at the end of 2023, was a big name that flew the flag for Japan.

Despite not running in the Arc or Europe, Equinox was the winner of the 2023 Longines World’s Best Racehorse award last season, having won the Japan Cup and Sheema Classic during his career.

In total, he raced 10 times and won eight of those – winning a massive $15,930,077 in total prize money along the way.

Equinox now stands at the Shadai Stallion Station stud in Japan.

Across The Pond Can Follow Up

The progressive Across The Pond has been tipped to follow up in the 6th (JC Photos)

Vaal Classic Formguides And Selections (Thursday)

Gold Circle

R1 (1) Remains Of The Day has shown form and can win this contest for the inform yard of Paul Matchett. (4) Tiger Storm is capable of much better and must be respected. (5) Pursuit Of Fame placed in the last start and can get involved. (7) Santiago’s Pride has a decent pedigree and although he may go well over further based on pedigree, he must be kept safe. Any market support must be respected. ( Devonne Govender 1-4-5-7)

R2 Watch for any market support on first timers. (4) Executrix made good progress in the last start and must be respect despite returning after a short break. (3) Endizayo was fancied on debut and ran a cracker, with natural scope to improve she will have a huge winning chance. (7) On A Jet Plane is making progress with every start and will get much closer. (1) Golden Argo is a horse that can get involved into the quartets. ( Devonne Govender 4-3-7-1)

R3 (8) Greenhouse ran well on debut and will improve over the extended trip so is the firm first selection. (6) Explosive Gift was fancied on debut but wasn’t disgraced and will make improvement. (7) Faithful Mistress ran well on debut and will progress over the extended trip. (2) Saudi Sweep has been consistent and will be in the mix. Watch for any market support on first timers. ( Devonne Govender 8-6-7-2)

R4 (10) Exceedingly Glam wasn’t far on debut and will improve. (3) Hat Trick Or Treat is holding consistent form and will make his presence felt. (4) Legendary is making steady progress and will get closer. (5) Howzit Boet can get involved for the quartets. ( Devonne Govender 10-3-4-5)

R5 (2) Meridius won extremely well in his last start and can follow up in this small but competitive field. (3) None Other returns after a slight break but is very capable so deserves respect. (1) Bingwa is a smart horse and has ability so can win this despite the top weight. (4) East Coast returns after a break but has a light mass so can get involved into the placings. (6) Master Christmas is holding solid form but does take on some hard knockers. ( Devonne Govender 2-3-1-4-6)

R6 (5) Across The Pond is holding top form and looks to have a huge winning chance. (6) Spirited Girl is another who is holding good form and will be a big challenger here. (4) Vulcanite was an impressive maiden winner and will have plenty scope to go well here. (1) Betula is a very honest type and won’t be far once again. (Devonne Govender 5-6-4-1)

R7 (2) Twostep Queen is holding good form and rates a big winning chance. (6) Free In Seattle ran well in the last start and a repeat performance will see her running a big race. (8) Willowild ran well out the maidens and will be right there. (7) It’s Her Way hasn’t been far in recent starts and can get into the quartets. ( Devonne Govender 2-6-8-7)

R8 (2) Risky Business is in excellent form and will take some beating here. (3) Confederate looks a smart type and will be right there in the mix with plenty scope to progress. (1) Kotinos ran well in the last start and will make the frame. (5) Guerilla Warfare ran a cracker at big odds and can get into the quartets. ( Devonne Govender 2-3-1-5)

Today's Question

The picture is of the subject (Image: Realtor.com)

Question: Wo is the highest Timeform rated Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner in history?

FIELDS, THURSDAY 3 OCTOBER

Vaal

Today’s Question Answer

Sea-Bird (1962–1973) was a French Thoroughbred racehorse and sire. In a career which lasted from 1964 until October 1965, he ran eight times and won seven races. Sea-Bird is most famous for his victories in two of Europe’s most prestigious races, the Derby and the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. His Timeform rating of 145 remains the second highest flat figure behind Frankel’s rating of 147 awarded by that publication.

CLICK HERE TO READ ABOUT SEA-BIRD

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