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Jay August, the country’s foremost statistical racing analyst, has formed a speed map and mentioned some other likely July outcomes, although he reiterated they were all based on historical precedent and not anticipated positioning.   
He said, “Pomp and Power is very unlikely to lead unless he cannot be restrained.
Astrix is very likely to want to lead as his best chance is to control the pace, but he first has to overcome his wide draw.
Aragosta rated with the pace last time out and given his pole position and light weight will likely be up with the pace again.
The optimum pace for any winner is to cover the first 1200m in ~73s and the final 1000m in ~60s.
Anything slower to 1200m than that is sub-optimal by the degree of variance.
No winner I have timed off video has ever won the July after having covered the first 1200m in anything faster than 72.96s, and that time was London News from a wide draw and in front in 1996. He won in 133.24s (my timing, the official time was 133.5s).
While four-year-olds have the highest historical numerical participation, three-year-olds have the best conversion rate. Expect that trend to continue this year as three-year-olds are almost always likely to be slightly underrated in the July and likely to improve several points.
Do It Again is probably the best handicapped horse on his best Greyville form, but he has age to overcome. No seven-year-old has won the race since 1950. The two oldest winners since 1950 have been Beau Art (6yo – 1980) and Java Head (6yo – 1966).
The closest a seven-year-old has come to winning from 1950 was Flaming Rock in 1994, beaten 0.60 lengths into second. Interestingly another seven-year-old, Pas de Quoi, finished fourth in the same race (and he was most unlucky not to win, having been twice badly interfered with in the straight – Ed) – the next best performance by a seven-year-old.
History and draw stats since 2014 (new course layout and wider draws) favours a likely winner from a three- or four-year-old, drawn 8 and up.”
Picture: Jay August’s speed map for this year’s Hollywoodbets Durban July (Supplied).