Cape Racing
The seven runner Diana Stakes to be run over 1400m on Saturday at Hollywoodbets Durbanville is a tricky puzzle to unravel. All six of the older fillies have speed figures closely clustered between 100 and 106 but with only Kwinta’s Light having run recently. All the others are returning from layoffs upwards of nine weeks. Add hard-to-assess three-year-old, Dynasty youngster Tipsy Tarragon (s/s 96 +) carrying only 50,5 kg’s, who could be dangerous off that light mass with just a little bit of natural improvement, and it becomes tough to call.
Chansonette (s/s 107) is best performed of the four-year-olds having forged her reputation with a sequence of outstanding runs in prestigious Grade 1’s during the Cape Summer of 2021/22. She comes in here off 35 weeks break prepared by expert conditioner, Andre Nel and will be ridden by Grant van Niekerk, himself staging a return to race-riding after a back problem.
Chansonette holds an obvious class edge. Andre Nel never runs unfit horses, hence the excellent strike rate his stable is renowned for maintaining over the years. However, Chansonette is using this race as a stepping-stone to Grade 1 glory during Summer and is unlikely to be fully primed off such a lengthy spell.
Snaith Racing is three-handed – with Tipsy Tarragon, an intriguing and somewhat hard-to assess entry, supported by likely controlling speed, Kwinta’s Light (s/s 101) who is the only runner with recent form, and steady, off pace closing mare, Veronica Mars (s/s 100).
Likewise, Candice Bass Robinson sends out three entries – Going Up (s/s 104) who caught the eye with a flashy finish in the Olympic Duel Stakes; Dancetildaylight (s/s 102) – has a slightly spotty record due to coughing issues but goes well fresh and likes the country course; together with Santa Maria (s/s 106) who also mixes her form but can blitz home on her day, and is 2/2 around these bends.
This is an awkward race given fitness queries about the principal candidates. Fixed odds punters should watch the prelims closely and then shop around for perceived value in the betting market, whilst exotic punters may need to spread to get through this Leg of the Picks.
