Picture: One Stripe going down for the Gr 1 Maker’s Mark Mile. in which he finished second
Watch One Stripe running in the Manhattan Stakes from Saratoga live on Gallop TV at 11 minutes past midnight (Early Sunday morning in SA)
At The Races
The Manhattan Stakes poses one of the more compelling tactical puzzles of the Belmont Stakes Festival. Turf Classic G1 winner Rhetorical, the 2-1 favourite for Will Walden and Irad Ortiz Jr., faces a direct pace confrontation with defending champion Deterministic, who won this race twelve months ago and arrives off a dominant front-running score in the Fort Marcy G3. Both are confirmed speed types, and whether they engage or one defers will play a major role in the outcome.
Andre Fabre sends the Wertheimer-owned Bright Picture from France as the 3-1 second choice on the morning line, while South Africa’s dual Group 1 winner One Stripe adds further international intrigue for Graham Motion. Behind them lies a deep bench of graded performers including Make Me King, who chased Rhetorical home in the Turf Classic, and Integration, the McGaughey-trained Quality Road horse whose second in this race last year marks him as a proven performer at the trip.
Pen Pictures:
#1 TIZ DASHING
J: Javier Castellano | T: Barclay Tagg
The Tiz The Law colt won the Canadian G3 at Gulfstream last time in convincing fashion, drawing off to score by nearly four lengths. That was a career-best and confirmed the promise he showed when winning the Hill Prince G3 at Aqueduct in November.
The Sackatoga and Tagg combination needs no introduction to followers of New York racing, and Castellano has been aboard for every start, providing useful continuity. The concern is the class gap — his best figures sit below what the principals are routinely capable of. A fast pace could bring him into calculations for minor honours, and the 30-1 morning line appears slightly dismissive given his recent trajectory, but he would need a significant step forward to make the frame.
#2 TEST SCORE
J: Manny Franco | T: Graham Motion
Grade 1 winner took out the Pegasus Turf at Gulfstream in January with a powerful performance, saving ground inside before swinging five wide and holding on gamely. That effort gives him a chance, and his Belmont Derby G1 victory last summer demonstrated his ability at longer trips. His most recent effort in the Turf Classic was disappointing, however — he tracked four wide before fading to eighth, well behind the reopposing Rhetorical and Make Me King.
Motion has two in the race with this one and One Stripe, and Franco picks up the ride here. He’s a horse I’ve always liked, and I wouldn’t rule out an each-way flyer at double-digit odds, but he went away very tamely last time and that’s a concern.
#3 MAKE ME KING (FR)
J: Jose Ortiz | T: Hamad Al Jehani
Dark Angel gelding has emerged as a high-class miler-and-a-quarter performer for the Wathnan Racing operation since relocating from France. Runner-up in the Turf Classic G1 at Churchill last time, he closed well from off the pace to be beaten three and a half lengths by Rhetorical, with a clear margin back to third-placed Corruption. His form in the Middle East was strong — he won a listed race in Qatar impressively before a creditable fourth in the Dubai Turf G1 at Meydan, where he was not far behind Ombudsman.
Jose Ortiz takes the mount for the first time, replacing regular partner James Doyle, and his closing style should play well if the two speed horses engage early. At 8-1 he could be overpriced given the likelihood of a genuine pace, and the step up to a mile and three-sixteenths suits him well.
#4 INTEGRATION
J: John Velazquez | T: Shug McGaughey
Quality Road horse brings the deepest resume of graded form in the field, with earnings of $1.81 million and a string of Group 1 placings that includes seconds in both the Pegasus Turf and this race last year. He won the Red Smith G2 at Aqueduct in November with a sweet closing burst and was a close third in the Maker’s Mark Mile G1 at Keeneland in April. His closing profile means he is another potential beneficiary if Rhetorical and Deterministic duel through honest fractions, and Velazquez brings his trademark patience to a horse who has repeatedly proven he stays this trip.
He’s six-years-old now and been facing weaker and getting the benefit of Lasix. That means it remains to be seen how he will handle this very big step up in class. There’s a case to be made at a price but I am leaning in a different direction.
#5 DETERMINISTIC
J: Kendrick Carmouche | T: Miguel Clement
The defending Manhattan champion returns to the scene of his finest hour. Twelve months ago he led throughout under Carmouche to deny Integration by a neck, and his most recent effort in the Fort Marcy G3 at Belmont was another wire-to-wire win, scoring by three-quarters of a length in hand. The Liam’s Map horse has won eight of fourteen career starts and his front-running style, executed with precision by the in-form Carmouche, makes him a formidable proposition whenever he can control the tempo or get a stalking trip from just off.
The question is whether Rhetorical will allow that to happen. The favourite’s early pace figures are nearly identical and if Ortiz sends Rhetorical forward from the gate, the two could lock horns. If Deterministic can get the right trip, he is very dangerous. But it should be noted that this year’s running of the Manhattan is a sixteenth farther than last year when he just was able to hang on for victory.
#6 BRIGHT PICTURE (FR)
J: Flavien Prat | T: Andre Fabre
The sole European shipper and the most intriguing horse in the field. The Wertheimer-owned Intello gelding won two of his three starts this spring in France, taking the Prix Exbury G3 at Saint-Cloud and the Prix d’Harcourt G2 at Longchamp, before finishing a creditable second behind the unbeaten Arc winner Daryz in the Ganay G1 on his most recent start.
Fabre is among the most decorated trainers in European racing history, and a threat wherever he appears. Prat rides, which is a significant positive — his knowledge of American tracks is obviously superior to any visiting European jockey — and the mile and three-sixteenths should suit a horse who has been effective from seven furlongs to a mile and a half. His form is simply better than the American-based runners and he’d be a great price at the 3-1 of the morning line. His price should probably be more like half that price (6-4).
#7 RHETORICAL
J: Irad Ortiz Jr. | T: Will Walden
The deserving favourite after a dominant display in the Turf Classic G1 at Churchill, where he set the pace inside and kicked clear in the upper stretch to score by three and a quarter lengths. A repeat of that run would make him very difficult to beat if reproduced unless Bright Picture brings his A game. The Not This Time gelding, a New York-bred no less, has won six of nine career starts and was an excellent third in the Breeders’ Cup Mile at Del Mar behind Notable Speech.
His speed is his weapon — he has shown the ability to set the pace and sustain it through the stretch. He’ll have a fight on his hands, particularly if Deterministic goes on with it early as he’ll have to win the speed battle and then have to hang on to win the war. He’s capable certainly and must be considered a top contender.
#8 ONE STRIPE (SAF)
J: Gavin Lerena | T: Graham Motion
South Africa’s dual Group 1 winner adds a fascinating international dimension. The One World horse won the Cape Guineas and Cape Classic in his homeland before relocating to Graham Motion’s Fair Hill base, and he announced himself stateside with a fine second behind Test Score in the Pegasus Turf G1, closing from well back after being reserved early. He was also a strong second in the Maker’s Mark Mile G1, rallying along the rail behind Zulu Kingdom. Lerena, his regular South African rider, reunites with him here, which is a positive for a horse who clearly runs for this jockey.
The concern is whether a mile and three-sixteenths stretches him beyond his comfort zone — his best form has been at a mile. Motion typically presses all the right buttons and the German blood on his dam side should help with the stamina. He goes with a chance but this race came up tough.
#9 BATTLE OF NORMANDY
J: Dylan Davis | T: Shug McGaughey
The second McGaughey runner, this City of Light horse was a good second behind Deterministic in the Fort Marcy G3 last time, tracking the winner inside before finishing willingly when unable to peg him back. He won the River City G3 at Churchill in November with a dominant front-running display, earning a career-best 128 figure. The form has been somewhat inconsistent since, though at least now he’s headed in the right direction. He’s a big price and could run on for a minor award with the right trip, but third is likely his ceiling.
PETER FORNATALE’S VERDICT
At the morning line prices, it’s a slam dunk to try #6 BRIGHT PICTURE because he’s got the best form in the race and it should be run well enough to suit. Prat can be trusted to make any needed adjustments on the fly as well. #7 Rhetorical is the logical exacta partner and main danger as he appears to be the best speed. #2 Test Score could bounce back if you are looking for a big priced each-way alternative or one to spice up your USA-style exotics. #3 Make Me King is another possible one to use in exactas and trifectas.
