Snow Moon’s win on Saturday provides a good case study for A, B, C, D, Middle Stakes races and how the weights can have an affect on the result (Picture: Chase Liebenberg)
Snow Moon’s win was called a “bomb” result at Hollywoodbets Greyville on Saturday as he had drifted out from about 7/1 to 33/1.
However, he should have drifted the other way as he had been showing good form in the maidens and he was well treated under the conditions of the D Stakes race.
A “D Stakes” race is a merit rated band race and the highest band in D Stakes races is 64-66 and that band is set to carry 61,5kg.
Snow Moon was officially merit rated 68 and the rule if a horse is rated higher than the top band is an allocation of half-a-kilogram per point, meaning Snow Moon would have been set to carry 62,5kg had he not been a maiden.
However, there is a condition in a D Stakes race that a maiden gets an allowance of 1kg, meaning Snow Moon only had to carry 61,5kg.
It was surprising that Gorgeous Dude was the favourite, because he is merit rated 55, meaning he was at the bottom of his band, the 55-57 band, which were set to carry 57kg. That means he was automatically 1kg under sufferance with any horses who were at the top of their band and he was 2kg under sufferance with Snow Moon due to the latter’s 1kg allowance.
In a handicap the 68 rated Snow Moon would have given the 55 rated Gorgeos Dude 6,5kg, but in this race he only gave him 4,5kg.
Snow Moon won at odds of 33/1 and in second place was Sail To The Moon at odds of 25/2.
Sail to the Moon was merit rated 66, meaning he was at the top of the highest band, the 64-66 band, and therefore he was 1kg well in with the 9/4 shot Gorgeous Dude.
Gorgeous Dude finished a 1,10 length third ahead of the best weighted horse in the race, the 68 rated filly Saudi Sweep. She was rated 68 so was effectively on the top of her band, plus she received a 2,5kg gender allowance. Furthermore, she had 2,5kg claimer Blaine Marx-Jacobson aboard. Her run has to be considered disappointing at the weights, but it is never easy for the girls to run against the boys.
In fifth place was the horse who vied for favouritism, the 5/2 shot Send Me, and yet he was a horse rated 64 and thus on the bottom of his band.
Being at the top or bottom of the band doesn’t automatically enhance or scupper a horse’s chances respectively.
It is wise to check how the horse fared the last time it ran in such a merit rated band event.
For example, if it had been on top of its band last time and failed then being top of the band again isn’t going to be much of an advantage.
There is an occasional dream scenario for punters that can happen in these Stakes races.
For example, the horse Boogiefield won a B Stakes race over 1600m in his penultimate start, despite being rated 87, which meant he was on the bottom of his 87-89 band.
He was raised to 90, which gives him the opportunity to run in a Middle Stakes race over 1600m and be on top of the 87-90 band.
If he was able to win the B Stakes race while falling into the 87-89 band off an 87 then it stands to reason that he will hardly be any worse off in a Middle Stakes race as he will once again be carrying the same weight as the 87, 88 and 89 rated horses and will only be worse off with the 90 rated horses.
Unfortunately, there don’t look to be any 1600m Middle Stakes races in the next few weeks in Cape Town.
