Grand Empire just pips Trust in the Gr 1 HKJC World Pool SA Classic (JC Photos)
The three-year-old male ratings appear to have a more realistic look to them after the running of the Gr 1 HKJC World Pool SA Classic.
The handicappers original rating of the Gr 2 TAB Gauteng Guineas used 117 Tin Pan Alley as the line horse and the outcome was horses with high ratings from 121 downward.
However, after a couple of panels upheld appeals for certain horses, the ratings looked too low at 109 and downward.
In retrospect the handicappers have pointed out that not only have the latter ratings been proven to be too low, but the SA Classic ratings, which were similar to the Gauteng Guineas ratings, now actually look undervalued too, considering Tin Pan Alley went out and won the Gr 1 wfa Wilgerbosdrift Horse Chestnut Stakes by 3,75 lengths.
Furthermore, the replacement line horse used by the appeal panel for the Gauteng Guineas, the previously 108-rated Grand Empire, is now a Gr 1 winner too.
However, the handicappers do not practice retrospective ratings.
The handicappers’ analysis of all of Saturday’s Classic day stakes races can be read below:
Press Release
Handicapping Ratings Update
WILGERBOSDRIFT H F OPPENHEIMER HORSE CHESTNUT STAKES (GRADE 1)
Three-year-old TIN PAN ALLEY has been awarded a revised merit rating of 128, up from 117, following his emphatic victory in the Grade 1 Wilgerbosdrift H F Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes run at weight-for-age over 1600m at Turffontein standside track on Saturday.
In assessing the race, the Handicappers identified the consistent TEXAS RED (third place) as the line horse, leaving his rating unchanged at 119.
TIN PAN ALLEY’S commanding win over 1600m on a yielding track dispelled any doubts about his aptitude for the trip. The Handicappers had already considered him suitable for the distance, having used him as the line horse in the original TAB Gauteng Guineas ratings. However, the TAB Gauteng Guineas was subsequently reduced to a level of 109 following an appeal.
The outcome of the TAB Gauteng Guineas appeal has had significant knock-on effects. The three-year-old cohort that dominated the Guineas was reduced from a level of 121 to 109. TIN PAN ALLEY, who finished sixth in that race, has now gone on to win a Grade 1 WFA event.
Effectively, based on the reduced Guineas level, his performance rating has risen from 104 to 128 in just 28 days. While the Handicappers clearly believe TIN PAN ALLEY improved in this race, the improvement would reasonably be measured from 117 to 128 based on the Handicapper’s original assessment of the Gauteng Guineas.
When rating the Guineas, the Handicappers considered the pecking order of the field, the quality of the race as a Grade 2 event, and fairness from a handicapping perspective to ensure horses would meet on proper handicap terms in future contests. The appeal outcome created distortions, including the subsequent reduction of TRUST’S rating from 119 to 108 – a decision made two runs after his Grade 2 Jackpot City Dingaans victory, which the Handicappers regard as contrary to the principles of handicapping.
TIN PAN ALLY’S performance in this WFA race highlights the strength of this year’s three-year-old crop.
No other horses received upward adjustments in this race. COSMIC SPEED’S rating was reduced slightly, from 124 to 122.
HKJC WORLD POOL SA CLASSIC (GRADE 1)
GRAND EMPIRE, winner of the Grade 1 HKJC World Pool SA Classic over 1800m, has had his official merit rating raised from 108 to 120.
The Handicappers unanimously agreed that runner-up TRUST reaffirmed the 119 performance he achieved in the Grade 2 Jackpot City Dingaans last November, where he defeated the 118-rated JAN VAN GOYEN. The Dingaans level remains the officially adopted benchmark for that race.
In the assessment of this race, the Handicappers concluded that TRUST once again performed to that same level of 119. TRUST was used to that mark and was accordingly adjusted to 119.
A collateral line of form with TIN PAN ALLY’S win in the Wilgerbosdrift H F Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes (Grade 1) indicates that the Grade 1 HKJC World Pool SA Classic is undervalued, however, the Handicappers do not practise retrospective ratings.
Furthermore, the TRUST appeal panel concluded with the following recommendation: “Following the running of the SA Classic, the Handicappers should re-evaluate the entire three-year-old crop.”
Three additional horses received merit rating increases in this race:
- SPLITTHEEIGHTS: 109 to 116
- ONE EYE ON VEGAS: 106 to 115
- RADIO STAR: 95 to 107
WILGERBOSDRIFT SA FILLIES CLASSIC (GRADE 1)
HAZY DAZY’S official merit rating remained unchanged at 117 after she held off her rivals to win the Grade 1 Wilgerbosdrift SA Fillies Classic over 1800m. HAZY DAZY remains 3 points lower that her male counterpart GRAND EMPIRE, which is within the range of the filly’s allowance while keeping her equal to the Western Cape Leading filly WISH LIST, who is also rated 117.
The Handicappers identified LITTLEMISSMILLION as the line horse, leaving her rating unchanged at 107.
Two horses received rating increases based on their margins ahead of the line horse at level weights:
- SCARLETT HEART (third): 91 to 108
- DAISY JONES (fourth): 106 to 108
WILGERBOSDRIFT ACACIA STAKES (LISTED)
CARE FORGOT’S official merit rating has been raised from 97 to 102 after winning the Listed Wilgerbosdrift Acacia Stakes over 1600m.
In this race, KISSHOTEN (third) was deemed the most suitable line horse, with her rating left unchanged at 107.
Under race conditions, the maximum increase for placed runners is limited to three points. Accordingly, runner-up WARNING SOUND could only be raised from 87 to 90, despite achieving a higher performance level.
Three horses received rating reductions:
- WILLY MEET AGAIN: 104 to 102
- LADY FALLON: 102 to 100
- DOITWITHDIAMONDS: 100 to 99
TAB J J THE JET PLANE STAKES (Grade 3)
WILLIAM ROBERTSON’S official merit rating remains unchanged at 124 following his 17th career victory, achieved in the Grade 3 TAB J J The Jet Plane Stakes over 1000m.
WILLIAM ROBERTSON, who was rated 105 as a one time winner at age 3, went up to a rating of 125 from 117 following his 2nd place run in the 2022 Grade 1 Mercury Sprint and has now accumulated 5 Graded race wins.
He was deemed the most suitable line horse for this race, hence his unchanged rating. By rating the race in this manner, MOVER AND SHAKER also ran to his mark of 109, effectively making him a line horse as well.
Upward adjustments were made for the following horses:
- TAXI TO THE MOON (runner-up): 117 to 119
- RAFA BAY: 94 to 97
- CONSTELLATION: 113 to 114
Two horses received rating reductions:
- COSMIC STAR: 106 to 105
- MOUNT PINATUBO: 110 to 109
Enquiries:
The Handicapping Team
