Turf Talk Newsletter – 19 February, 2026

Handicapper Bashing - SA Racing Fraternity's Favourite Hobby

The handicapper has one of the most unforgiving jobs in the country, but there are many “experts” out there who like to climb on the bandwagon and lambast them.

The South African racing fraternity across the board is generally not well versed in the ins and outs of handicapping for some reason and this is surprising because a good understanding of this discipline would give many industrymen and fans an edge.

The general lack of understanding was summed up in a recent social media post in which a horse that had placed second had been given a few merit-rated points raise and there was a post complaining about it followed by over 200 comments.

The comments came from all walks of life in racing.

Not a single one of the commenters picked up that the subject horse had been under sufferance in the race and was therefore going to automatically get more points for placing second than it would normally have got … not one spotted it and yet just about all had suggestions for the handicappers or otherwise just dished out insults.

South African racing is actually particularly difficult to handicap.

In England, as a comparison, trainers and owners can make judgement calls early on about whether a horse is going to be a Group level horse, a good class handicapper or a low grade handicapper and they can plan a route for the horse accordingly.

So a horse ajdjudged to be low level handicapper will start out running at lesser racecourses and after its three runs it will get a low handicap mark and begin the rest of its career.

A horse adjudged to be decent will perhaps start out in a Newmarket maiden or a maiden at one of the other flagship raceourses and they might eventually have handicap marks that will qualify them for the lucrative heritage handicaps.

The top class horses can go straight into Group events or progress from other lesser starts if need be.

However, in South Africa, the horses that are destined to be Equus Horses Of The Year will rub shoulders with much lesser types early in their careers.

Let’s look at Eight On Eighteen as an example.

On debut one of his opponents was a horse called Bright Future, who is today a 60-rated one-time winner in the East Cape. In Bright Future’s debut he ran against One Stripe, who is currently making headlines on a world stage.

The program or venue does not help separate the good, the medium and the bad in South Africa as it does in the UK, although there is the lesser centre of the East Cape available for those who fear their horse might be rated too high too early.

The handicapper has the job of separating horses through the merit rating system.

The handicapper’s job is to rate the race that is before him and a merit rating is a qualified estimate of the inherent ability of the horse.

One problem in South Africa is that when a horse has promise there are very few big money handicaps to aim at, like the heritage handicaps in the UK.

British trainers have the luxury of testing the horses they think might possibly be Group class horses in those big handicap races.

If they prove to not be the best, and are instead just good enough to place, then all is fine. because it is a handicap and the horse is not going to be unduly punished.

But in South Africa such horses generally have to be tested against top horses in level weights features or features with certain weight conditions.

If they finish close to a good horse in such a feature then they are going to be raised accordingly, although in some cases the operator puts conditions into feature races that protect placed horses from being raised too high.

This happened to the horse called Trust in the Graham Beck Stakes. He finished a 0,60 length second to the 116-rated Tin Pan Alley and was only raised four points due to the operator’s condition in the race stating that placed horses can not be raised more than four merit rated points.

The operator’s conditions seem to be unique to SA racing and adds another obstacle to the many that the SA handicapper has to try and negotiate.

For example, there was an unplaced horse in the Graham Beck rated 105 and had he met Trust in a handicap a couple of weeks later he would have had to give him 6.5kg. A typical lament following such a happening would be “The handicapper doesn’t know what he is doing” (followed by hundreds of back-pats).

However, the risk when an owner and trainer gives a horse the acid test is that it will finish close up to a highly rated winner or placed horse in a race where there are no such operator’s conditions.

If a horse runs close to a highly rated horse in a feature race then it is not the handicapper’s job to phone the trainer and owner and ask them “how good do you think your is?”. It is also not his or her job to place higher importance in past performances.

His or her job is to rate the horse according to the evidence that is before him from that race. Previous races can be used as a reference or guide, but not as a measuring tool.

If the horse is adjudged to have the inherent ability of a horse for whom there are not going to be many earning opportunities i.e. an above average horse and just below the best, then it is not the fault of the handicapper that he is awarded a merit rating that reflects that inherent ability. He or she is just doing his or her job.

It is a demographics and programming issue that sees some horses ending up in no-man’s land and it is also the connections who took the risk in the first place.

The demographics limitation is there are only four centres in the country.

So for example:

The Gr 2 Golden Horse Sprint was changed to a benchmark 106 equals 52kg, so here was an opportunity for good horses to run for big money of R1 million and not get overly punished if they proved not up to the task. But the common lament after that announcement was made was it was a disgrace that they were taking a traditional Gr 1 away and it was going to rob the really good sprinters of a Gr 1 1200m opportunity.

So if there were more jurisdictions in South Africa there could perhaps be an expensive 1200m race somewhere that caters for the top Gr 1 sprinters in one place and perhaps an expensive benchmark 106 = 52kg race in another centre.

But this is SA, so it has to be one or the other and there will be moaning that the Gr 1 race was taken away in the one instance and moaning that there are no races for certain horses in the other instance.

The connections who are punished when a horse runs close up in a big race would perhaps not have had to take the risk f running it in Britain has.

An example could possibly be seen in the horse Yippee Kiyay, who was able to run in the R500,000 Grand Heritage without the risk of a big merit rated raise, but with the lack of further such opportunity he was given a go in the Gr 2 TAB Gauteng Guineas and ended up with a rating of 117 after running fifth.

The rating was reduced after an appeal to 105 as the winner of the race, Splittheeights was reduced to from 121 to 109.

There was the usual flurry of criticism of the handicappers for their rating of the Gauteng Guineas, but the handicappers view was not incorrect as there were two highly rated horses, Trust on 119 and Tin Pan Alley on 117, who finished close up.

The handicappers decided to take the higher road because it was a Gr 2 event, but the appeal board decided to take the lower road having seen that there were a couple of horses who had failed to beat exposed older horses recently and had now finished close up in this Gr 2 race and there was also mounting evidence that the current 3YO male crop is not looking to be a vintage one.

The usual typical wag came along on social media and called the handicappers assessment a blunder and asked why they were not held accountable for such a “bad mistake”.

In fact it was not a mistake at all, it was just a difference of opinion of the line horse and who is to say which party was correct – only the future will tell whether the handicappers were correct or whether the appeal panel was correct.

In any case there are consequence for both of the assessments – Splitheeights, One Eye On Vegas and Yippee Kiyay were not favoured by the handicappers assessment, but horses who now have to face Splittheeights, One Eye On Vegas and Yippee Kiyay in races such as Middle Stakes races, for arguument’s sake, are not going to be favoured by the appeal board’s assessment.

Handicapping as a subject requires many chapters.

But, hopefully this article will go someway to stop the knee-jerk criticism of the handicappers, which generally comes from sources who have no idea of how difficult a job it is.

Another example of the hypocrisy out there is that the merit rating system is a common lament and it is often coupled with waxing lyrical about how wonderful it was when the best horses could win a few races in succession, or “go through the divisions”, and how exciting it was to witness.

Yet there is now widespread shock and criticism whenever there are small fields.

The old system with the bombs being certainties in their first few races is not going to attract big fields and furthermore the horses that are not bombs, what about their futures?

The truth is that most of the horse population are below average and it is only due to the merit rating system that they are able to have long careers and it is only due to the merit rating system that the fields can be as big as they are at present.

Finally another common misunderstanding is how high our horses are rated compared to overseas horses, whereas the truth is the local merit rating system is just used to rate our population relative to one another and each of the good horses who have the potential to race overseas have separate international ratings.

4Racing – Clarification On Reduced Stakes Structure On Smaller Fields

Turffontein – implementation of reduced stakes structure has begun (Pic – 4Racing)

Following the recent communication regarding amendments to race programming and stakes adjustments, 4Racing has provided further clarity on key aspects of the proposed policy.

The implementation date for the reduced stakes structure applicable to smaller field races will take effect from 19 February 2026.

As previously stated, this adjustment does not apply to any Graded or Listed races, which remain unaffected.

The revised structure will be based on the number of actual runners participating in a race.

However, any horse scratched at the start or in the parade ring will still be counted as a runner for stakes calculation purposes. This aligns with the current treatment of late scratchings in relation to jockey engagements and respective betting rules.

4Racing reserves the right to cancel a race at any time, up to and including race day, should only a single runner be declared or in the event that all declared runners are trained by a single trainer – as a minimum of two trainers are required in accordance with our updated Racing Operators’ Conditions.

There are systems in place to accurately monitor the timing of scratchings to ensure the policy is applied consistently and transparently.

Please note: Irrespective of the number of declarations, 4Racing will advertise the total gross stake. Any reduction in stake will only be applied after the race, once the final number of runners has been confirmed.

Turffontein (Pic – Supplied)

Why This Adjustment Is Necessary

The primary objective of this measure is to create greater certainty and stability in race programming.

Trainers must be afforded the opportunity to map out a plan for their horses, and owners should be confident that when they enter a race, their horses are guaranteed a run, without the risk of races being cancelled due to insufficient runners – a situation that has occurred regularly in recent times.

While defending six and seven-runner fields has unfortunately become normal practice, given the current incentive structures and stake levels, achieving fields of eight or more runners should be the expectation rather than the exception.

Field size remains a critical factor in the overall health, competitiveness and commercial sustainability of the horse racing product. This adjustment is therefore designed to encourage stronger, more competitive fields while ensuring fairness and accountability across the board.

Thank you to the trainers and owners that have shared numerous suggestions for consideration. These will be factored into future tweaks and changes to continuously evolve the programme and make it more efficient and effective for all.

Looking Ahead

In addition, 4Racing has confirmed that a stakes increase will be announced in the near future, further demonstrating the operator’s commitment to supporting all participants and strengthening the racing programme.

4Racing extends their appreciation towards the continued cooperation of trainers, owners and all industry stakeholders who contribute to sustaining the sport of horse racing in South Africa.

Media release by 4Racing on Wednesday, 18 February 2026.

The Sky Is The Limit For This Blue Sky Draft

Blue Sky Thoroughreds’s Race Coast Premier Yearling Sale draft will be presented immaculately (Picture: Race Coast Sales)

Blue Sky Thoroughbreds recently enjoyed a notable feature race double when the Blue Sky bred pair of Legal Counsel and Disting won the Gr 3 Cape Mile and Listed Laisserfaire Stakes on the same card. The farm also bred Spirit Of Gabz, the first winner for promising young sire and Gr 1 Tsogo Sun Sprint winner, Chimichuri Run. The KZN outfit will be offering a six strong draft at the 2026 Premier Yearling Sale, with Blue Sky set to bring forward yearlings sired by all of Eden Roc, Erupt, Fire Away, One World and Twice Over.

Lot 4: Unnamed f One World – Kileigh
By the sire of globetrotting champion One Stripe and high-class fillies She’s My World and World Of Alice, this filly is a half-sister to three winners notably this season’s Gr 2 Mike De Kock Ipi Tombe Challenge runner up Minogue (the latter is now a five-time winner). Her dam is a four-time winning three-parts sister to Triple Crown winner Abashiri and this is also the family of champion Yard-Arm.

Lot 55: Unnamed c Fire Away – Private Dancer
Fire Away has sired a growing number of high-class performers including Confederate, Fire Attack, My Best Shot and Warm Reception. This colt is a half-brother to Castle Tankard winner Action Zone, and his dam is out of Gr 2 Gold Bracelet winner Dance Along.

Lot 140: Unnamed f Twice Over – We’re Watching You
By a champion and four-time Gr 1 winner, whose progeny includes stars Do It Again and Double Superlative, this filly is bred on the same Twice Over/Visionaire cross as multiple Gr 1 winner See It Again. Her dam won five times, and this filly hails from the immediate family of dual Gr 1 winner, and sire, Crimson Waves.

Lot 230: Hot Rox c Eden Roc – Flame Cat
From the first crop of Gr 1 Gold Medallion winner Eden Roc, Hot Rox is a three-parts brother to a winner and half-brother to Gr 2 Pospack SA Fillies Nursery third Rapid Fire. His Tale Of The Cat sired dam won five and finished second in the Gr 3 Pretty Polly Stakes.

Lot 252: Unnamed c Erupt – Guide You Home
By the sire of such stakes winners as Karangetang, Moonlight Trader and Buster Barnes, this colt is out of a Gimmethegreenlight three-parts sister to the Gr 2 Gold Bracelet third Catchafallingstar. His granddam, by Var, won six races including the Gr 2 Kuda Gold Circle Oaks and she is a half-sister to the Oaks winners Arcola and Ash Cloud.

Lot 206: Unnamed f Twice Over – Diva’s Daughter
This filly shares her sire with such top-class performers as Do It Again, Double Superlative and See It Again. She is a half-sister to four winners notably Gr 1 Allan Robertson Championship winner Miss Florida and hails from the family of international Gr 1 winners Atlantic Jewel, Embassy and King’s Apostle.

For more information on Blue Sky Thoroughbreds’ Premier Sale draft, please contact Bruce Le Roux or Tinus Gericke on info@blueskytb.co.za

Constitution Hill: How will he fare at Southwell?

Tom Collins, who will be on course on Friday evening for Sky Sports Racing, provides expert insight ahead of the 2023 Champion Hurdler’s All-Weather debut.

I’m pretty certain that you have clicked on this article having already read plenty about the matter at hand. In truth, it has been nigh-on impossible to avoid discussion surrounding CONSTITUTION HILL this term, especially since a potential Flat assignment was mentioned after he fell in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle in November.

However, if you don’t know the current situation then I will offer a quick lowdown. Nicky Henderson’s star hurdler, winner of eight Grade 1 contests including the 2023 Champion Hurdle, has fallen on three of his last four starts.

Watch Constitution Hill in the SBK Road To Cheltenham Novice Stakes from Southwell live on Sky Sports Racing (Sky 415 | Virgin 519) at 7.30pm on Friday 20th February.

After serious debate regarding his future and, indeed, any spring targets, connections have opted to take in an All-Weather race – the SBK Road To Cheltenham Novice Stakes at 7.30 at Southwell on Friday, live on Sky Sports Racing, en route to another tilt at the Champion Hurdle.

This decision has been met with a mixed response, largely surrounding the inauguration of a 1m4f novice event with significant prize-money being added to the calendar to lure him out of the shadows. It has worked – a fantastic PR ploy. Now that he is confirmed to run, here are some questions that we will look to answer…

Why is Constitution Hill running at Southwell?
First and foremost, Constitution Hill needs to have a race to build up his fitness and sharpness ahead of his seasonal target, which is the Unibet Champion Hurdle on Tuesday March 10. His sole start this season saw him get no further than the second obstacle and it will be 312 days since his last completed outing if they just rocked up to the Festival without a prep.

There have been some more obvious and conventional targets that Constitution Hill could have taken en route – the Kingwell Hurdle being just one. However, with doubts around his hurdling fluency, connections have opted for a simple Flat run to shake off the rust.

The BHA and sponsors SBK have put up £40,000 prize-money for a 1m4f novice on a valuable evening card at Southwell to attract Constitution Hill. That is an offer that connections could not refuse. So, here we are. Constitution Hill is running on the All-Weather!

Who are Constitution Hill’s main rivals on Friday?
It is a general consensus that you can translate hurdling ability to the Flat by deducting around 45lb from a horse’s official rating. For example, an 80-rated runner on the Flat should be able to get to around 125 over obstacles. There are obviously plenty of other variables at play and you can have horses that overachieve or underachieve when they switch codes.

With a rating of 170 over hurdles, Constitution Hill, by this logic, should be roughly capable of running to 125 on the Flat. Now, that is highly likely to be overshooting his true ability, but even another 20lb drop-off would make him a good 105 performer. If that is accurate, there are no ‘main rivals’.

But age catches up to everyone and Constitution Hill, now a nine-year-old, needs to prove that he retains all of the ability that we saw from December 2021 to January 2025. If he doesn’t, then maybe you would look towards Dundalk maiden Square Necker, who is roughly capable of running to a mark of 90 based on previous showings.

Daddy Long Legs, who was placed in a Saint-Cloud maiden in 2022, represents Willie Mullins and Ryan Moore. While Tripoli Flyer, another jumps horse reverting to the Flat, has actually won an All-Weather bumper and is therefore proven on a similar surface.

How will the SBK Road To Cheltenham Novice Stakes be run?
Middle-distance novice events are rarely run at breakneck gallops – don’t expect to see red sectionals on the screen during the race! Constitution Hill’s presence in the field provides a quandary for his opponents as he evidently doesn’t lack speed and stamina should not be an issue over this trip. Do they then look to exploit any rustiness?

I’m certain a few of his foes will jump out and look to grab a good early position. Constitution Hill is not going to be the quickest away from the stalls, as proven by the video of him practicing a few weeks ago, and getting a four or five-length headstart on him may be the ploy.

Oisin Murphy, who partners the star hurdler, will look to find a rhythm early. The main goal is for Constitution Hill to have a nice blowout while potentially showing some sparkle on the Southwell Tapeta. Finishing his race off to good effect is more important than winning by a distance. Look for him to settle in midpack before being asked for effort inside the final three furlongs.

What about the Southwell draw?
A wide draw is always better than the rail on an inexperienced type – I will live and die by that theory. As a result, gate 12 is no bad thing, especially for a horse who will likely break a little slower than others.

There is around two-and-a-half to three furlongs before the first turn from the 1m4f start at Southwell, which will allow Constitution Hill and Oisin Murphy time to find their spot. If they can save ground by being one off the rail in the early stages, connections will be happy with the position.

What will we learn about Constitution Hill from this race?
Regarding his chances of winning the 2026 Champion Hurdle? Probably not – his jumping will still be the major point of concern. However, it will be nice to see this star equine talent return to the track given his truncated last 12 months, and a promising effort, whether that be a win or place, will provide some added anticipation ahead of the festival’s showpiece hurdling event.

Of course, learning isn’t just done via a horse’s performance. There is also learning for the industry as a whole. For all that this card at Southwell that would have always drawn a decent student-led crowd, I’m almost certain that Constitution Hill’s presence will force onlookers to arrive from far and wide.

Star power attracts viewers and Constitution Hill’s entry will get more eyes on the sport. That is no bad thing, especially when it comes to the next generation.

TOM COLLINS’S VERDICT:

If CONSTITUTION HILL retains his ability and can roughly translate it to the flat, I see no reason to take him on. His initial ante-post price of 4-7 was on the skinny side, but he’s now available at 7-4, which is more than fair on official ratings.

Those unwilling to bet at those odds should look towards TRIPOLI FLYER as a fine each-way alternative at 9-1 in a race that ranks as the most fascinating domestic contest this week.

Visitors To Claim Fairview Features

Pomp It Up can have a successful raid (Pciture: Wayne Marks)

Jack Milner (Tab4Racing)

A pair of Listed races top the card at Fairview on Friday and both could go the way of raiding trainers.

Race 2 is the Ibhayi Stakes for three-year-olds over 1400m and is the first leg of the Sophomore Challenge.

It should be an interesting affair as Tara Laing’s talented gelding Buffalo Bill heads up the field and comes out as best weighted. The son of Buffalo Bill Cody has raced eight times for four wins, three seconds and a third, and has done little wrong.

He also gets on with jockey Wayne Agrella who will be on board once again.

However, Justin Snaith is coming to town and he will be bringing useful Danon Platina colt Pomp It Up. While only a two-time winner, he has raced against stronger in the Western Cape and was probably a touch unlucky last time when a close up fifth over 1400m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth.

JP van der Merwe takes the ride.

Race 7 is the Lady’s Pendant, over 1200m, featuring a strong mix of local and visiting runners. Leading the local challenge are Dean Smith’s pair, Danish Dynamite and Song Of Myself, who are both in fine form.

Danish Dynamite has won four of her seven starts, while Song Of Myself is four from five since joining the yard. Both are very speedy but may be tested over 1200m.

The distance will be no problem for Candice Bass-trained Symphony In White and she could prove hard to beat in this field and will also have Van der Merwe in the irons.

Former Equus Champion Broodmare Halfway To Heaven will be in the spotlight at HWB

Jack Milner’s selections

Race 1: 1 Daffodil Delight, 6 Rock Me Mama, 7 Rungstedland, 8 Saboteur

Race 2: 3 Pomp It Up, 1 Buffalo Bill, 2 Royal Kingdom, 5 Silva City

Race 3: 1 Rachettu, 7 Makajima, 4 Bugle, 6 Khichdi

Race 4: 6 Truly Magical, 3 Champagne Blaze, 5 Witching Hour, 9 Jazz Away

Race 5: 2 Zatara Magic, 1 Zinovi, 6 Get Impressed, 7 Global Ally

Race 6: 2 Guy Gibson, 1 Anuschka’s World, 4 Roman Agent, 9 Imaginable

Race 7: 1 Symphony In White, 11 Danish Dynamite, 3 Song Of Myself, 5 Princess Hannah

Race 8: 12 Potenza, 4 Saigon Suzie, 2 Back For More, 1 Lady Bomber

BEST BET

Race 1: 1 Daffodil Delight

VALUE BET

Race 8: 12 Potenza

BEST SWINGER

Race 7 1×11

BIPOT

R108

Leg 1: 1

Leg 2: 1, 3

Leg 3: 1, 7

Leg 4: 3, 5, 6

Leg 5: 1, 2, 6

Leg 6: 1, 2, 4

PLACE ACCUMULATOR

R288

Leg 1: 3

Leg 2: 1, 7

Leg 3: 3, 5, 6

Leg 4: 1, 2

Leg 5: 1, 2, 4

Leg 6: 1, 11

Leg 7: 1, 2, 4, 12

PICK 6

R2160

Leg 1: 1, 4, 6, 7

Leg 2: 3, 5, 6, 9

Leg 3: 1, 2, 6

Leg 4: 1, 2, 4

Leg 5: 1, 3, 11

Leg 6: 1, 2, 4, 7, 12

JACKPOT 1

R108

Leg 1: 3, 5, 6, 9

Leg 2: 1, 2, 6

Leg 3: 1, 2, 4

Leg 4: 1, 3, 11

JACKPOT 2

R135

Leg 1: 1, 2, 6

Leg 2: 1, 2, 4

Leg 3: 1, 3, 11

Leg 4: 1, 2, 4, 7, 12

Ferraris And Hewitson's Dry Spells Continue

Stunning Peach holds off Top Dragon in a cliffhanger finish in the Year Of The Dragon Cup (HKJC)

Ex-pat South African jockeys Luke Ferraris and Lyle Hewitson have been through a rather lean spell on the island and it continued today at the Sha Tin Chinese New Year meeting.

Ferraris has had one win in his last ten race meetings and Hewitson has had two wins in his last ten race meetings.

Meanwhile, Tony Cruz will target Hong Kong’s elite 2000m races with Stunning Peach after the Irish-bred fulfilled long-held promise with dramatic victory in the HK$3.12 million Class 2 The Year Of The Horse Cup Handicap (1600m) at the meeting.

Click here for a full report of the meeting

Doubles For Venniker, Calvin Habib and Matchett

The David Nieuwenhuizen-trained 103-rated Famous Lady bounced back to her best to win a Conditions Plate over 1450m at Turffontein Inside today (Thursday), beating Almond Sea (119) and her Nieuwenhuizen-trained stablemate Pressonregardless (109) comfortably under Rachel Venniker (JC Photos)

There were doubles for Calvin Habib, Rachel Venniker and Paul Matchett at the Turffontein Inside meeting today.

Rachel Venniker is now on 44 wins for the season and has achieved it at a strike rate of 11.83%.

Calvin Habib is now on 85 wins for the season at 12.02%.

Matchett is on 18 wins at 7.17%

Craig Zackey had one win at the meeting to go to 154 for the season.

He is now 34 wins clear of second-placed Richard Fourie, who is on 120 wins.

Muzi Yeni is third on 86 with Calvin Habib fourth on 85 and Callan Murray fifth on 76.