Jan Van Goyen thrashes Cape Town’s best 3YOS in the Gr 1 Hollywoodbets Cape Guineas (Picture: Wayne Marks)
Jan Van Goyen will “most definitely” be targeted at the Hollywoodbets Durban July and he should have a chance of being well weighted as this Mike and Mathew de Kock-trained Master Of My Fate colt is a member of a three-year-old male crop who look more exposed than ever after the running of the Gr 2 Gauteng Guineas on Saturday.
Mike de Kock said a line could be drawn through Jan Van Goyen’s Hollywoodbets Cape Guineas run and explained that just a glance at the sectional timing of the race was enough to confirm that the jockeys of the De Kock coupling Dave The King and Jan van Goyen had had no idea how fast they were actually going. Dave The King had set a ridiculous pace, and Jan Van Goyen had chased it a few lengths behind him.
However, he said Jan Van Goyen had come out of the race fine.
He added that the R10 million prize for the July would make the build up for a potential three-year-old runner a whole new ball game and elaborated, “Handicapping is going to be everything.”
He said running in open races would be avoided by potential July three-year-olds, because of the risk of a massive merit rating raise.
Avoiding certain races will likely be even more in vogue this year due to the longer handicap being introduced with a 10kg spread in the weights.
However, the three-year-old classics should not be compromised as De Kock pointed out that the three-year-old form had shown there to be no dominant horse and their form was well exposed. They look to be overrated even with no big ratings for any of them yet.
He said Trust had not shown himself to be a 119 on Saturday, although admitting he might not have performed to his best.
Trust was hampered at a crucial stage too.
He pointed at numerous examples of exposed three-year-olds, with two examples having run in Saturday’s Gauteng Guineas, the 0,30 lengths runner up Grand Empire and the 2,15 length fifth-placed Yippee Kay Yay.
He said, “Those are two well exposed three-year-olds in my opinion and Grand Empire actually didn’t win that Listed race against older horses either (off a 102 merit rating he had finished second to 104-rated Pressonregardless (in the Wolf Power 1600 (handicap), although he was 2kg under sufferance). So what does that say about the three-year-olds? What are their real ratings?”
The build up to this year’s Hollywoodbets Durban July is certainly going to be fascinating and have tongues wagging as trainers jostle for position, weighing up the weight they come in with against the risk of not qualifying if they are too cautious.
