Charming Steed has been tipped to win the fourth race (HKJC)
Tim Carroll (At The Races)
The Consensus Cup headlines at Happy Valley on Wednesday where Tim nominates his three best bets.
This Wednesday sees a competitive nine-race card from Happy Valley getting underway at 10.40am. The feature of the meeting is race 6, the Class 3 Consensus Cup (Handicap), over nine furlongs, offering prize-money in excess £205,000.
Now onto this week’s selections.
Race 1: Class 5 Tsing Yi Handicap (10.35am) (6 furlongs)
4 STERLING WONGCHOY will need to be taken on trust having been unplaced last time when favourite with no excuses, although the rider the report afterwards he was still a tad immature. The selection is yet to break his duck in eleven goes, but he was only beaten a nose when runner-up over this trip last month to a winning favourite at Sha Tin with the first two well clear of the others, and a repeat of that performance would see him go very close here.
Dangers:
5 Talents Supremo has just one win from thirty-one starts but drops down to this level for the first time having run well enough in defeat his last two when fourth on both occasions.
10 Hoss hasn’t won for a long time, but he continues to drop down the handicap & this will be the first time he’s gone around at this level at Happy Valley, but he’ll need some luck as they usually ride him cold.
12 Beau Gosse is a twenty-five-start maiden, but he drops to a lowly mark of 20 having placed down the straight course at Sha Tin last time, and he’s a pacey type drawn on the inside.
Race 2: Class 4 Kwai Chung Handicap (11.05am) (6 furlongs)
1 GOLDEN LUCK finished one spot behind Golden Friendship over course & trip last time when fifth, but with a claimer going on, he now meets that rival on 8lb better terms. Although he is a pace runner, he was given a very aggressive ride that night after a slightly tardy start and whilst not a luckless loser by any stretch, the run was a tad better than what the bare figures suggest. As mentioned, a claimer goes on, meaning he effectively run a slightly lower mark than when he won here earlier in the season, and comes out of a race that has already thrown up a couple of subsequent winners.
Dangers:
2 Perfect General, who won over course & trip on his season return and just his second career start, looks to have some ability but is a work in progress having not helped himself by over racing in two subsequent starts, but loos a big player, especially if putting it all together.
12 Tactical Command is yet to win at this level, but he arrives off a solid effort when picking up the bronze at Sha Tin last time, he placed twice over course & trip earlier in the season from this very mark and is in receipt of 5lb-16lbs from his rivals.
7 Golden Friendship was unwanted in the betting on debut last month but ran with a bit of promise when fourth over course & trip, he’s entitled to improve for that, and the form from the race has a nice shape with both the second & third winning at their next starts.
Race 3: Class 4 Kwai Chung Handicap (11.35am) (6 furlongs)
2 FORTUNE WHISKEY has found some form since joining the David Eustace yard, winning two of his last three over course & trip, including last time out, for which he has been penalised 7lb. He may have only won by three-quarters of a length that night, but it wasn’t so much the margin of victory but the way it was achieved, coming widest of all from near last to win running away. He does have more on his plate now that he goes from toward the top of the handicap, but he still looks to be progressing and although winning rider Matthew Poon misses the ride, Tom Marquand is a very able replacement.
Dangers:
3 Lucky Archangel hasn’t been seen in the winner’s circle since June of last year, but he has been plying his trade at Class 3 level and will enjoy dropping in grade having won from a similar mark when last seen at this level in October 2023.
1 Power Koepp doesn’t do a lot of winning, but he takes a drop in grade having placed in a Class 3 last time, and will find this more to his liking, but he will have to carry 16lb more at this level.
4 Motoman, who broke his duck over course & trip in January, was placed here last time from this mark, and whilst he will need to run a career best to take this, the race does map for him to grab a nice trail behind the leaders.
Race 4: Class 4 Rotary Centenary Challenge Cup (Handicap) (12.05pm) (1 mile)
8 CHARMING STEED is a 7yo that has recorded just the four wins, but three of those have come at his last six starts. He lands here having won in good style over nine-furlongs last time and although that was on the dirt, he is equally effective on turf having won over course & trip on his final start of last season. He does go up 7lb for his latest success, but connections have offset the penalty by booking 7lb claimer Ellis Wong, who has won on him before. The selection was having his first start of the year last time, so he could strip fitter here, and he’s perfectly draw in 1 given they like to punch forward.
Dangers:
10 Youth Power is a twice winner over the mile this season and although now 6lb higher in the handicap than the latest of those wins in December, he wasn’t beaten far off this mark last time despite an awfully tough trip planted wide without cover, & this should set up more favourably from the low draw.
4 Smart Fighter was a tad underwhelming when unplaced last time with no apparent excuses, but he had won his previous two over six furlongs, and he may enjoy stepping up the mile having placed over this trip at Sha Tin last season.
1 Flying Fortress, who gains the services of Hollie Doyle, has been unplaced all three local starts since arriving from New Zealand having won a maiden on debut, but there was support in the market last time, he takes a drop in grade & on pedigree he should enjoy going over this trip for the first time.
Race 5: Class 4 Tsuen Wan Handicap (12.35pm) (5 furlongs)
5 CHAMPION METHOD won over course & trip in November and can be forgiven an unplaced effort when he scoped poorly post-race at his next start in early December. He then returned from a short break when runner-up to Parents Love, when only beaten half-a-length, and with penalties & rider changes accounted for, he effectively meets that rival on 8lb better terms. The selection goes up 2lb for that, but he’s still a few pounds below his peak winning mark, Andrea Atzeni, who has been on top for two of his three career victories, sticks solid, and the race maps Kindly from the low draw.
Dangers:
12 Plentiful ius a 5yo that has been progressing nicely with two wins from his last three spins over course & trip and although he dives into deeper water now that he moves up in grade under an 8lb penalty, he won in good style at his most recent start, and he goes from the foot of the handicap with 13lb less to carry at this level.
2 Happy United was placed behind Parents Love last time but he should have all the favours from the inside draw, and he is on 10lb better terms with his rival, which should be enough to turn around a one-length margin.
6 Parents Love arrives in good form having won two of his last four over course & trip including last time when he had a few of these in behind, but a 7lb penalty and a change of rider sees him on 8lb & 10lb worse terms with the second & third (Champion Method & Happy United) respectively.
Race 6: Class 3 Consensus Cup (Handicap) (1.05pm) (9 furlongs)
7 CHARITY GAIN is a low mileage progressive stayer that will be moving up in grade under a 7lb penalty having won over course & trip last time, which was his second success in just seven starts. He does have more on his plate at this level, and a few of these arrive in good shape. But he’s yet to run poorly the entire campaign, lugging 135lbs at each of his last four starts, and I think connections will be relieved to see him at this level now that he has 18lb less to carry. He came from last to win at this most recent start, and he’s likely to be ridden cold again, but there a strong gallop on offer, and he should be rattling late with the light weight on his back.
Dangers:
5 Star Mac finally broke his local duck (goes up 7lb) at the seventeenth time of asking over course & trip last time, but he has kept some good company, finishing top four in the first two legs of the Classic Series last season & his late closing style has meant he doesn’t always get the breaks when needed, but this race should be run to suit.
8 Fallon bombed his only start on this track in May of last year, and he hasn’t won for over a year, but he can reel off some strong sectionals late when he has a solid gallop to aim at, and he should get that here.
1 Flamingo Trillion goes from the top of the handicap but he takes a drop in grade having not been beaten far in a Class 2 last time, he was a thrice winner over course & trip at the backend of last season, albeit from lower marks, but he will need to get across from a high draw.
Race 7: Class 3 Ma Wan Handicap (1.40pm) (6 furlongs)
5 PRAWNS ELEVEN, who was a thrice winner in the mining town of Kalgoorlie in Australia, recorded his sole local success over this trip at Sha Tin last season, and his profile would suggest he’s a bit of an in and out sort, but he has a few things in his favour here and looks worth an each-way ticket. The selection, who is just 4lb above his winning mark, was beaten less than a length last time when placed behind a progressive type that was winning for the third time. Whilst not devoid of speed, here are several here that like to get on with it, and from the low draw the selection should end up on the rail with a nice tow into the contest just in behind the leaders, and with a clear round, I expect he’ll be there when it matters.
Dangers:
1 Beauty Destiny is in flying form with three wins from his last four, all over course & trip and he does have a favourable draw, but a 7lb penalty means he must give away 3lb-16lb to his rivals, which makes things a bit more challenging.
10 Hayday arrives with a 6lb penalty having won over course & trip last time and although moving up in grade into a stronger contest, he carries 12lb less at this level and he does have a kind draw for a pace runner.
3 Sports Legend, who was a twice course & trip winner last season, has had just the one run since June of last year when unplaced but not beaten far over course & trip in December, and whilst he may need this, he arrives having hacked up in a recent trial, which was run in a quick time.
Race 8: Class 3 Ma Wan Handicap (2.15pm) (6 furlongs)
5 SPICY GOLD completed a course & trip three in October and whilst he has failed to score in three subsequent runs, he was beaten a lip by in one of those and had genuine excuses in the other two. The selection had no luck here in the fourth leg of the IJC in December and again featured heavily in the stewards’ report when beaten just a length here last month. Connections having given him a short break, which often works the oracle with these sprinters, and whilst he’s no leader he does have enough pace to grab a forward spot on the tail of the likely leader (Happy Fat Cat) from the inside draw, with hopefully, the run of the race.
Dangers:
3 A Americ Te Specso probably has more ability than he’s overall record would suggest, but he’s a late closer than needs the rub of the green, something he didn’t get last time when he may have won with a clear round, but he gets a decent gallop to aim at and should go close if he get the breaks when needed.
4 Golden Empire goes up 6lb having won over course & trip last time, and although that was his first success for nearly a year & he moves back up in grade, he has won from higher marks in the past.
1 Eternal Fortune, who was a thrice winner (known as Be Here Now) for Nigel Tinkler, won over course & trip in January when he had the selection a nose behind in second, and the 7lb claim is a big plus, but the draw in 11 looks tricky.
Race 9 Class 3 Kap Shui Man Handicap (2.50pm) (1 mile)
4 AESTHETICISM looks a winner in waiting having run with merit at his last few starts when closing out late. The selection was last seen over this trip two starts back when a late closing fourth in a pace dominated race, finishing a lip behind the subsequent winner, Soliel Fighter, who he now meets on 9lb better terms, and with a few of these in behind. He backed that up with another good effort when runner-up here over slightly further last time. He is a stretch runner, which means he always does need things to fall his way, but there’s a solid enough gallop on offer, which will hopefully ensure he is afforded every opportunity.
Dangers:
1 Soleil Fighter recorded his second course & trip win of the season last time, and that record could easily be three with a tad more luck, but he does go up 7lbs which sees him at the very top of the handicap.
12 Viva Graciousness doesn’t do a lot of winning but he’s a consistent type moving up in grade having been runner-up last time, and although he has more on his plate here, he lurks from the foot of the handicap carrying 18lb less at this level.
8 Devas Twelve bombed his only start here when an unplaced favourite last April, but he’s a twice winner over seven-furlongs at Sha Tin during the current campaign and is one to keep on the safe side.
WEDNESDAY’S PLACEPOT
Today’s Tote Place Pot will be races 4 through to 9. All up we will be playing 108 combinations (3x3x3x2x2x1), which will cost £10.80 for a 10p stake and so on. Good luck
LEG 1- 4 SMART FIGHTER 8 CHARMING STEED 10 YOUTH POWER
LEG 2- 2 HAPPY UNITED 5 CHAMPION METHOD 12 PLENTIFUL
LEG 3- 5 STAR MAC 7 CHARITTY GAIN 8 FALLON
LEG 3- 1 BEAUTY DESTINY 5 PRAWNS ELEVEN
LEG 5- 3 A AMERIC TE SPECSO 5 SPICY GOLD
LEG 6- 4 AESTHETICISM
TIM’S BEST BETS (scale 1-5 points)
11.35am HAPPY VALLEY
3pts FORTUNE WHISKY
1.40pm HAPPY VALLEY
2pts each-way PRAWNS ELEVEN
2.50pm HAPPY VALLEY
2pts AESTHETICISM
