Turf Talk Newsletter – 06 December, 2024

Gimmie’s Countess is one of two chief contenders to win the WSB Cape Fillies Guineas in the opinion of Graeme Hawkins. (Picture: Wayne Marks). 

Graeme Hawkins (Gold Circle)

The first Grade 1 Classic of the Cape Summer Festival of Racing, the R1,25-million World Sports Betting Cape Fillies Guineas over 1600m, headlines a quality 10-race programme at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Saturday. There are no standouts amongst the field of thirteen runners for the 2024 renewal of the WSB Cape Fillies Guineas but perhaps Gimmie’s Countess will rise to the occasion and deliver Lady Christine Laidlaw’s Khaya Stables yet another Classic success.

Always considered to be a filly out of the top drawer by trainer Dean Kannemeyer, Gimmie’s Countess launched her Summer campaign with a fluent victory in the Baker McVeigh Diana Stakes (Gr3) over 1400m at Durbanville in September. The regally bred daughter of Gimmethegreenlight followed up with a fast-finishing fourth in the Western Cape Fillies Championship (Gr2) on the Kenilworth Winter track a month ago when coming from the tail of the field to get within half-a-length of the winner Mon Petit Cherie in a blanket finish.

Gimmie’s Countess is again drawn wide and regular pilot Craig Zackey will most likely adopt similar tactics, but the longer home stretch on the Summer course should afford her every opportunity of running down her rivals. Mon Petit Cherie also came from off the pace when bravely holding out Beware The Bomb in the Western Cape Fillies Championship, but the result might have been different in another stride.

Beware The Bomb is an imposing daughter of the much-missed Lancaster Bomber, sire of last season’s WSB Fillies Guineas winner Beach Bomb. Can a “Bomb” land in successive years for Owner-Breeders Drakenstein Stud? Beware The Bomb, trained by Justin Snaith and the mount of Grant Van Niekerk, is still very much unexposed and on an upward curve. She will relish the extra 200m and could be there to pick up the pieces if Gimmie’s Countess fails to fire.

Mon Petit Cherie cannot be lightly dismissed and will be seeking to give trainer Brett Crawford his fourth winner in the WSB Fillies Guineas, having scored with Bad Girl Runs in 2005, Front and Centre in 2018 and Make It Snappy in 2022. The daughter of Rafeef has hardly put a hoof wrong and, being out of a Galileo mare, should have no problem in seeing out the trip. Champion jockey Richard Fourie rides for his sponsor Ridgemont who race the filly in partnership with Hollywood’s Brand Ambassador, Devin Heffer.

Crawford also sends out the highly talented Fatal Flaw who side-stepped the Betway Fillies Mile (Gr3) at Turffontein over the past weekend to fulfil her Grade 1 engagement here. Fatal Flaw arrived in Cape Town from her Randjesfontein barn on Tuesday and faces an unenviable task from the deepest draw. The daughter of New Predator has shown her best form over 1400m and there is a lingering doubt as to whether she is as effective over a mile. Fatal Flaw generally likes to go forward and from her wide gate Piere Strydom, a master judge of pace, is not likely to change tactics. Despite his hugely impressive CV, Strydom has yet to win the WSB Fillies Guineas and he would love nothing more than to plug that gap.

When one considers that less than two lengths covered the first seven fillies home in the Western Cape Fillies Championship (Gr2), the traditional pathway into the Saturday’s Grade 1 Classic, the picture looks a little murky and there are others who could stake a claim. Symphony In White was third in that race followed closely by Kinda Wonderful (5th), Little Suzie (6th) and Whistle The Tune in seventh. Of these Little Suzie, out of the Met-winning mare Oh Susanna, may have the most scope for improvement but, given the riding arrangements, its reasonable to assume that Beware The Bomb is the Snaith stable elect.

Symphony In White is all class but she is not certain to get home over 1600m. Her dam Snowdance won the 2017 edition of the WSB Fillies Guineas but in my view Symphony In White seems to be more of a sprinter than a miler. Of course, she may prove me horribly wrong on Saturday!

In summary, this year’s WSB Fillies Guineas is wide open and should be a great spectacle. I am in the camp of Gimmie’s Countess and Beware The Bomb but not with a great degree of confidence.

Last season’s Champion Three-Year-Old, Green With Envy, and Hollywoodbets Durban July hero, Oriental Charm, make their seasonal debuts in the R600 000 World Sports Betting Green Point Stakes (Gr2) over 1600m and although neither are fully wound up, they warrant utmost respect in a small field of six runners. Royal Aussie has fitness on his side and could prove to be a thorn in their side.

Asiye Phambili looks a standout bet in the R250 000 World Sports Betting Southern Cross Stakes (Gr3) over 1000m. Nordic Quest may give some cheek, but Asiye Phambili is rated to win by a country mile and is impossible to oppose.

Navy Strength bounced back to form last time with a good win over 1800m and he could go back-to-back in the R225 000 WSB Cape Summer Stayers over 2500m. He won this race two years ago and he may just have the edge over Call To Unite and Love Is A Rose in a competitive renewal.

Hollywoodbets Durban July winner Oriental Charm has been tipped to win the Gr 2 Betway Green Point Stakes. (Candiese Lenferna Photography).

Formguides And Selections For Hollywoodbets Kenilworth Saturday

Race 1

This is a full field of first timers, watch them in the parade ring, watch them move down to the start and watch the market closely before making your final selections.

(Brandon Bailey: 6 – 4 – 5 – 3)

Race 2

2 GURKHA absolutely took off on debut to run a cracking third behind Cork Bay on debut, he was undoubtedly the eye catcher in that particular race, and he should be very hard to beat on Saturday afternoon with natural improvement. 8 UMFULA stayed on strongly in the same race as Gurkha on debut, he was only beaten just over three lengths by the winner, he will also improve nicely from his debut run into his second start up the straight at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth. 11 HONOR OF KINGS drops in trip now, his form has been really consistent, include him into all bet types. 9 REAL STUNNER was drawn poorly in his last start over 1400m, he ran a fair race behind Rich Folks Hoax, he should improve nicely now that he is back sprinting again.

(Brandon Bailey: 2 – 8 – 11 – 9)

Race 3

10 ALL IS GREEN won a great race last time when beating The Charleston in a close finish, she would have needed that run coming back to the races from a long break, the yard think highly of this filly and she must have a good winning chance again. 11 CAPTAIN’S DESTINY quickened up smartly to win a good race on the 16th of November, her recent form has been very good, despite her rating going up four points for her last win, she will be very competitive. 4 BERRY’S BOOGIE won her maiden impressively beating Winter Gamble by two lengths, she will get better and stronger with more racing, watch her closely here. 7 FESTIVAL CHIC is much better than her recent run, she drops in class and in trip which will give her a nice each way chance.

(Brandon Bailey: 10 – 11 – 4 – 7)

Race 4

6 GARRIX won his maiden very well on the 5th of November at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth, he quickened up like a smart horse in the making, there is no doubt he will love the step up in trip, include him into all bet types. 10 RICH FOLKS HOAX fought hard all the way to the line to exit the maiden ranks last time when beating Green Garnet by a long neck, he looks progressive and must be respected in a big way. 5 CARRIACOU ran a lovely race over 1600m on the 2nd of November behind Aspect, his form is good, and he will be finishing strongly late. 17 MARVEL WILLIAM ran a terrific race from a terrible draw in his last start behind Dawn Till Dusk, he unfortunately draws poorly again for this class 4 event which won’t make life easy for him, if the race works out, he could have a money chance.

(Brandon Bailey: 6 – 10 – 5 – 17)

Race 5

4 ASIYE PHAMBILI ran a super race in the Listed Laisserfaire Stakes behind Miss Marguerite on the 9th of November when finishing second by a short head, she returned back to the races from a long break and she carried a huge weight of 63.5kgs on her back, she would have improved nicely from that run and there is no doubt she will take lots of beating in this Grade 3 event. 2 SUMMER LILY ran on powerfully in her last start, she has been very consistent through her career, and she must have a good money chance again. 1 MISS MARGUERITE will find it tough to win again now that she is worse off at the weights with a few of her rivals that she beat last time, but she is gutsy and will be trying hard. 5 MISS WORLD is way above average, if she can build on her last performance, she will go close.

(Brandon Bailey: 4 – 2 – 1 – 5)

Race 6

5 ORIENTAL CHARM has been rested for 154 days, it’s great to have him back at the track after winning the Hollywoodbets Durban July in excellent fashion, he is a serious horse with plenty ability, if he doesn’t need the run badly, he will be very hard to beat. 4 GREEN WITH ENVY ran a fair race in the Hollywoodbets Durban July, unfortunately things didn’t go as planned for him in that Grade 1 event on the 6th of July, he is a horse with tons of ability, watch him late, he will be running on powerfully. 3 ROYAL AUSSIE needed his last start badly, he was only beaten just under three lengths by Rascallion in the Grade 3 Cape Mile, watch for sharp improvement, he will be right there in the finish. 1 WITHOUT QUESTION ran a decent race last time, on his best form he will have a nice place chance.

(Brandon Bailey: 5 – 4 – 3 – 1)

Race 7

3 BEWARE THE BOMB really caught the eye in her last start behind Mon Petit Cherie on the 9th of November, she stayed on strongly to finish second in a close finish, now that the steps up in trip to 1600m, she will go very close to winning from a good draw. 11 GIMMIE’S COUNTESS made up good ground in her last start from a wide draw in the Grade 2 Western Cape Fillies Championship, she should enjoy the extra trip now, watch her closely, she will be storming home late. 1 MON PETIT CHERIE quickened up in great fashion last time to win going away, she is clearly a filly with plenty ability, from a good draw with champion jockey Richard Fourie in the saddle, she must have a huge winning chance again. 13 FATAL FLAW won impressively on the Highveld last time, she will need lots of luck from a terrible draw, include her into all bets.

(Brandon Bailey: 3 – 11 – 1 – 13)

Race 8

1 CALL TO UNITE ran a decent race in the Listed Woolavington Stakes last time behind Daimyo when finishing fourth, he quickens well and he stays well, there is no doubt he will be competitive in this small field. 3 LOVE IS A ROSE ran a great race last time when finishing second, her staying form is really good, she is extremely tough, on her best form she can win this race quite easily. 6 NAVY STRENGTH finished like a rocket in his last start to beat King Pelles over 1800m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth, he races as if he will get the trip with no problems at all, he could be some value in a tricky looking race. 5 ALLEZ MORIS never runs a bad race, he could sneak into the Quartets.

(Brandon Bailey: 1 – 3 – 6 – 5)

Race 9

8 MAGIC VERSE was very unlucky in his most recent start behind Song To The Moon when finishing second, he currently races off a dangerous mark of 85, he should love the step up in trip to 2000m, he will go very close to winning if the race works out for him. 11 FUTURE TURN has been knocking on the door in a big way lately, again he unfortunately draws poorly, he should enjoy the extra trip and must be respected in this tricky looking contest. 1 LIGHTNING GLOW ran a much better race last time behind stable companion Navy Strength, he is a lovely looking individual that should be cherry ripe to run a cracker from a good draw. 9 JOIN THE DOTS has been in great form lately, if he can build on his last performance, he should earn.

(Brandon Bailey: 8 – 11 – 1 – 9)

Race 10

2 BIG UNIT quickened up like a very nice horse in his last start when winning a good race on the 16th of November at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth, he absolutely loves the 1400m trip, from a good draw here, he will be very hard to beat. 4 ROSH KEDESH had no luck in running from a terrible draw last time, he stayed on well late and was only beaten just over three lengths by Big Unit, now that he gets a good draw, he will be right there in the finish. 3 POWERANDTHEGLORY needed his last run badly, he moved up full of running through the 350m mark and then got tired very late, he is a horse with lots of ability, watch for big improvement on Saturday afternoon. 12 TOUT A FAIT will need luck in running from a wide draw, watch him closely late.

(Brandon Bailey: 2 – 4 – 3 – 12)

Gr 2 winner Cosmic Speed reappears on Saturday at Turffontein in the third and although not fully wound up he might be too good for them. (JC Photos).

The Turffontein Standside meeting on Saturday is headlined by a Graduation Plate over 1160m and a MR 96 Handicap over 1600m.

In the Graduation Plate Cosmic Speed is well treated at the weights, but returns from a four month layoff. Trainer Sean Tarry said he would not be fully wound up but felt he could still win and pointed to his good sprint form, which includes a narrow second in the Gr 1 Gold Medallion. He is drawn on the wrong side in barrier position two but in a small field that should not make too much difference, especially with Piere Strydom aboard. Cymric also has class and will be race fit having already had two runs this season, but he is officially 7,5kg under sufferance with Cosmic Speed and the latter also has the advantage of a 1,5kg claimer up. Rondebosch has ability and scope for further improvement so could be right there too.

In the MR 96 Handicap over 1600m Whafeef looks the one to beat despite a wide draw. Last time out he finished just two lengths behind Rule By Force over 1800m with the rest of the field beaten by a further 3,25 lengths and more. Rule By Force went on to frank the form by finihing third in the Betway Summer Cup. Quatermain ran a good second over 1700m last time and a repeat of that performance could see him go close. Command Pilot makes most appeal of the rest as he is 2kg better off with Whafeef for a four length beating.

In the first leg of the Pick 6 over 1800m Ichacha has a fair draw of five out of nine and this hard knocking sort should go close. Serrano is knocking hard too and should get the extra trip. Santiago’s Pride did well in first time blinkers over 2000m and should be right there from a good draw and with regular rider Kaidan Brewer keeping the ride.

In the fifth race over 2400m To The Rescue has always looked to be one who would improve with age and with a win last time over this trip he looks to be coming onto his own and he has found his niche trip. He is drawn in pole and only has to overcome a four point raise with highflying Calvin Habib taking the ride. Royal Mazarin has ability over this trip and is 2kg better off with To The Rescue for a 4,60 length beating. Damova has won the last twice she has run over staying trips and is also a big runner.

In race seven over 1400m Fostinovo looks to be distance suited and is drawn in pole. The last time he ran over this distance category he failed narrowly and is now a point lower in the merit ratings. Pressonregardless was up against a good one last time but on previous form over this trip he should go close, although he has a tough draw of ten. Rattle Bag is an honest mare who is capable of a strong finish if it pans out well and she is course and distance suited and has a good draw with a 1,5kg claimer up.

In race eight over 1160m Francine should be improving all the time being by Silvano and she is entitled to further improvement after a win last time as she spent the early part of her career running against the best. She is drawn towards the right side. Calantha is 1,5kg better off with Francine for a 1,25 length beating and is drawn one inside of her. Kingdom Of Gold is an interesting runner as she is drawn on the right side and after facing some good sorts and having an eleven month layoff she has come down to a nice merit rating and made a fair comeback. She has the ability to be right there.

In the last race Twice As Wild has pace and can stay on and she has hardknocking form and is drawn on the right side, although she is 1,5kg under sufferance. Fastnet Filly won her Highveld debut easily but now has to overcome a low draw, although her form has been franked and she looks to have a reasonable merit rating. Dancing Dora is a consistent sort and is drawn on the right side and is only half-a-kilogram under sufferance.

In the first race over 1160m Vibe SA has a lot of ability but seems to be one of those horses who does not like to be away from company so he puts on the brakes when in front, but he probably has the most ability. However, he has the disadvantageous number one draw and due to his quirks Kwagga Blitz might be the one to side with.

Boom Shakalaka disappointed last time but the form of his maiden win worked out quite well and he is likely better than that last effort. (Candiese Lenferna Photography).

Formguides And Selections For Hollywoodbets Scottsville Sunday

R1 Summary: All first timers but judging on trainer’s comments, this looks to be a Mike Miller benefit. BELL OF ANGELUS (5) with Tristan Godden aboard would appear to be the stable elect but Mathew Thackeray upstaged Godden last Sunday and partners CAPTAINS ENVY (6) while WATER HYACINTH (1) has 4kg claimer Jacey Botes aboard and could make them all run. (Andrew Harrison: 1-5-6-4).

R2 Summary: ROY’S GRACE (3) has been making steady progress and although two lengths behind DRESSEDTOTHENINES (5) last time out there does appear to more improvement to come from Paul Gadsby’s filly and can turn the tables on Dressedtothenines who has finished runner-up at her last two, the last over course and distance. She should be in the firing line with a 4kg claimer up. Corne Spies raids with RADIANT HEAT (1) who has patchy Highveld form but is capable on her day. She also has a 4kg claimer aboard. MISS MAYFLY (4) has one good race to her credit and a repeat could see her into the money. (Andrew Harrison: 3-5-1-4).

R3 Summary: MOCHA BLEND (1) made a smart debut for Frank Robertson when running on strongly behind Meritorious who was well fancied next time out but took exception to the poly kick-back. This trip should suit and Mocha Blend could prove too classy. LA VIDA LOCA (3) has improved slowly in her first three local outings and the step up in trip should suit Glen Kotzen’s filly. There should be little between SANBEENEE (8) and BEL GIOCATORE (9) with a length between them when last they met. The latter gets first time blinkers so could turn the tables. (Andrew Harrison: 1-3-8-9).

R4 Summary: CAPTAIN OLIVER (1) won well second time out for Frikkie Greyling as he was finishing strongly to land the spoils. On that evidence he should easily stay the extra. LUCRETIUS (4) is not the easiest to catch ‘right’ as he has his quirks but can build on his last win. MR FIXIT (3) romped home for Paul Lafferty in his maiden win and appeared to enjoy the step up in trip. RAINBOW OF ROSES (8) was a runaway maiden winner over the distance last time out and that form has held up quite well. She gets a 4kg claimer aboard so could follow up. (Andrew Harrison: 1-4-3-8).

R5 Summary: FAIZAH (8) showed up well when taking on much stronger last time out. Gareth van Zyl’s filly is seldom far back and should put in a good effort in this company in spite of top weight. ONE SMART COOKIE (4) is useful and Tienie Prinsloo steps her up to a mile. She was running on nicely over a furlong shorter last time out so this trip should suit. GORGEOUS GIRL (7) was a well beaten second last run but the winner, Warrior Royale was a good second to the smart Bevies Delight last Sunday. Duncan Howells saddles SAFE AND SOUND (3) who made most of the running to win her last race and can go forward again. Both of her wins have come on the poly. (Andrew Harrison: 8-4-7-3).

R6 Summary: BOOM SHAKALAKA (3) won his maiden well but disappointed when favourite at his first handicap attempts. He is down in class and has also had three-points relief in the ratings. Given the step up in trip, Glen Kotzen’s runner could be on the mark. BURNING MAN (7) has recently changed stables and Frikkie Greyling has dropped him in trip after one outing for the yard. He is one to watch. Stuart Ferrie sends out TEATIME TIPPLE (5) who has been close-up at his last two and is over his optimum trip. GIMMETHEGOODLIFE (1) was a recent maiden winner when stepped up in trip. He has the best of the draw and could be the pick of Gareth van Zyl’s pair with STARS IN HEAVEN (8) also coming off a recent victory and can feature. (Andrew Harrison: 3-7-5-1).

R7 Summary: Competitive handicap. GOLDEN ASPEN (9) is obviously super sound as she steps out for the 72nd time and the mare has won nine races on the way. She is seldom far off the winner and Corne Spies appears to have picked the right race for her 10th success. She has been dropping in the ratings and takes a big drop in class. Fit and well she will be competitive. HAPPY ANALIA (7) is fit having run twice in successive months and finishing close-up. She looks to be a strong contender with a 4kg claimer aboard. IZIBULO (2) has been rested but she beat a useful filly in Warrior Royale when shedding her maiden. She may just need this but Garth Puller has also engaged a 4kg claimer. PRINCESS PALACE (6) has only had six runs for a single win. She has been trying a little further of late but gets first time cheek pieces. (Andrew Harrison: 9-7-2-6).

R8 Summary: Seems wide open. You either take the first two selected and hope for the best or go wide in your exotics. VIHAAN’S WEB (6) is lightly raced but does appear to have plenty of ability. He was a comfortable maiden winner at just his third start and can follow up. FINE ONE (3) showed plenty of promise early in his career and his last start was his first back from a rest. He has a big weight to shoulder but does look more than capable. Stable companion LICENCE TO THRILL (7) goes well this course and can cause an upset. FLIGHT PATH (1) took an eight-point shunt up the handicap for his last win but does appear to have come to hand of late and can follow up. GORGEOUS GUY (4) has been in good form over the trip and can go one better. (Andrew Harrison: 6-3-7-1).

Romantic Warrior can defend his Longines Hong Kong Cup title (Picture: HKJC)

Tim Carroll (At The Races)

It’s the big one on Sunday with the LONGINES Hong Kong International Races taking place at Sha Tin – get Tim’s expert tips here;

This Sunday sees the pinnacle of the Hong Kong racing calendar, the LONGINES Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin, featuring four Group 1’s with a staggering £10 million plus on offer in the Group 1’s alone.

Horses and Jockeys from all over the globe have flown in for one of the highlights of the International circuit and you’ll be able to catch all the action live on Sky Sports Racing.

Now onto this week’s selections:

Race 4 Group 1 Longines Hong Kong Vase (8.10am SA Time) (12 furlongs)
3 LUXEMBOURG was brave in defeat when runner-up to Romantic Warrior in last year’s Hong Kong Cup at this meeting and he subsequently won the Coronation Stakes at Epsom over this trip. Although unplaced in three starts since then he has kept some very good company and ran better than the bare results when five-lengths behind Rebels Romance in the Breeder’s Cup turf at his most recent start. With the only a moderate gallop on offer, he’s likely to punch forward, and he should get first run on a few of the market leaders.

Dangers:
13 Stellenbosch is a Japanese 3yo filly that gets 9lb from all her rivals. She won the 1000 Guineas before only going down half a length at her only try over this trip when runner-up in the Oaks behind a filly that has since finished a slashing fourth in the Japan Cup. She runs through the line strongly, and like many of the Japanese horses, she relishes quick going, however she is usually ridden cold & ideally would prefer a strong gallop, which is unlikely, but the booking of Joao Moreira, who has plenty of experience on this track, is a big plus.
1 Without A Fight completed the Caulfield & Melbourne Cup double last year but suffered a tendon injury and was off for twelve-months. He resumed with an excellent third to Via Sistina in the Champion Stakes at Flemington when doing his best work late & he should come on bundles for that, however, there’s not a lot of pace in the race, and he’s a late closing type that may be forced to play his hand early.
9 Continuous has been well held on his last few starts, however, those below par efforts have all been on rain affected surfaces and he is far better on quick going which he’ll get here. The Aidan O’Brien 4yo has only had four starts on going described as Good or better in the last sixteen months, winning three if those including last year’s St Leger, and although I don’t confess to knowing what connections intentions are, he’s tactically versatile, and they may look to dictate from the front.

Race 5 Group 1 Longines Hong Kong Sprint (8.50am SZA) (6 furlongs)
1 KA YING RISING will be at prohibitive odds on his first try at the very top level, but it’s impossible to oppose the David Hayes 4yo, who is one the most exciting young horses in the world. He arrives having broken a seventeen-year-old track record held by one of the great Hong Kong sprinters, Sacred Kingdom, and he did it with Zac Purton waving to the crowd. His trainer, whose trophies include a Japan Cup, Melbourne Cup and Cox Plate etc, rates him the best horse his put a bridle on at this stage of his career, and although there is no such thing as a certainty in racing, baring bad luck, it’s difficult to see how he gets beaten.

Dangers:
8 Toshin Macau was last seen when runner-up to Lugal in the Sprinter Stakes in Japan when doing his best work late along the inside. Prior to that he’d only had three runs over this trip on quick going since November of last year, winning all three with two unplaced efforts coming over seven-furlongs & the other on a yielding track. He’ll relish the firm conditions and the race maps for him to sit mid division with plenty of pace to aim at.
3 Lugal is a talented Japanese sprinter that was last seen when winning the Sprinter Stakes in September, which is the race Danon Smash was runner-up before coming here to win this race in 2020. He normal likes to grab a forward spot and whilst there’s plenty of pace on offer, he has won over seven-furlongs and is well equipped to absorb plenty of pressure.
7 Starlust arrives as a Breeders Cup Sprint winner and although the Europeans have a poor record in this race, away from the favourite, its looks wide open. The Ralph Beckett inmate is proven on quicker ground and whilst he won’t get the suicidal tempo he had at the Breeders, this will be run a strong gallop, and he should be picking up strongly late if running to form.

Race 7 Group 1 Longines Hong Kong Mile (10.00am SA Time)
6 GALAXY PATCH was a beaten favourite when two-lengths behind Voyage Bubble last time & whilst a tad disappointing, the race didn’t set up kindly with Vincent Ho having to make an early move around the outside. The Pierre Ng 5yo had won his previous three starts and if you take away his last performance, he probably goes off favourite here. He showed last year when a luckless runner-up in the Derby that he gets further than this, and with this likely to be run at a solid tempo, that could come into play. The selection will likely be ridden from the back from the outside draw, but he possesses a wonderful turn of foot, they have a long run to the first bend, and five of the last ten winners have drawn double figures, with Golden Sixty winning the race from the same stall last year.

Dangers:
1 Soul Rush ran fourth in this last year behind the Champion, Golden Sixty, and whilst the winner was in a league of his own that day, this fellow flew late from the back to finish fourth, which was as good a run as any of the beaten brigade. He arrives having won the Champions Mile in Japan, a race he was runner-up in last year, & he should get a solid gallop to aim at.
2 Voyage Bubble was runner-up to Golden Sixty in this last year and was last seen winning the Jockey Club Mile, which is a traditional trial for this. He’s a tough type that can sit handy and he finds plenty for pressure.
3 Antino, who is an Australian contender, is a highly consistent type that has won half of his twenty-two starts and has never finished outside of the top three in eight spins over this trip. The Tony Gollan 6yo hacked up in the Toorak Handicap when making an early last-to-first move two back, before an equally impressive performance when runner-up to a high-quality miler in the Champion Stakes at Flemington. He’s tactically versatile, he acts on any going & it’s worth noting that he holds a 9/13-win record on right-handed tracks.

Race 8 Group 1 Longines Hong Kong Cup (10.40am SA Time) (10 furlongs)
1 ROMANTIC WARRIOR, who is the defending champion from the last two years, will be all the rage and for good reason. The Danny Shum 6yo has not only conquered all before him in Hong Kong, he has also won at the top level in Japan and Australia. He only just held off Luxembourg in this last year, but it came seven-weeks after a taxing trip to Australia. He arrives this year having just the one run since June when winning the Jockey Club Cup, which is a traditional trial for this and although he won how you would expect him to that day, he looked in rude health. They like to have him handy to the speed, and with only a moderate gallop on offer, he should have a highly efficient trip.

Dangers:
4 Tastiera is a high quality 4yo that won the Japanese Derby last year and arrives on the back of an excellent effort to finish runner-up in the Tenno Shu behind Do Deuce, who at his next start won the Japan Cup, thus the form has plenty of shape. That was his first run since April, he’s entitled to improve and he can sit handy, which I think could be beneficial here.
9 Liberty Island was a superstar 3yo filly in Japan, winning all three legs of the Triple Crown before finishing runner-up to the Champion, Equinox, in the Japan Cup. However, she was found to have a problem after running third in the Sheema Classic earlier this year and has only recently returned with an unplaced effort when fading late in the Tenno Sho. However, she had a tough trip planted wide on the pace that day, and she’s entitled to come on plenty for the run.
11 Wingspan will be ridden by Wayne Lordan which would suggest she’s the second pick of the Aidan O’Brien fillies, but her effort in the Breeders Turf when she met early trouble before finishing fifth, would suggest she should be very competitive here. The cut back in trip is no issue, she gets 7lb from the older males, she’ll have no problems with the quicker going, and in a race offering only a moderate gallop they may look to go from the front, like when she was runner-up in the Fillies & Mares on Champions Day at Ascot.

Race 1: Class 4 Silent Witness Handicap (6.25am SA Time) (6 furlongs)
2 PATCH OF TIME arrives on a three-timer under a 7lb penalty which sees him toward the top of the handicap. However, I’ve always maintained that progressive types, which this low mileage 5yo is, should be able to carry weight to win at Class 4 level. Not only that, but the weights are also compressed with only 6lb between the top twelve. The selection was able to win despite a tough run last time, but he likes to sit handy, and this should set up kinder from the low draw in 5.

Dangers:
5 Brilliant Express is a thrice race maiden than ran with promise all three starts last season and makes his belated seasonal return having moved nicely when runner-up in a recent trial, and Bowman sticks solid.
11 Happy Park is a five-start maiden and although well held in second, he was runner-up to a rival that looks well above average last time & given he led that day, he’s well drawn on the inside.
13 Invincible Lucky is a four-start maiden that will be having his first start since April after a setback, but he ran with a bit of promise a couple of times last season, he takes a 3lb drop in the handicap and looked in good health when winning a recent trial.

Race 2: Class 4 Beauty Generation Handicap (6.55am SA Time) (7 furlongs)
6 MASTER OF PHOENIX went off at double figures on debut over six-furlongs last month but defied market expectations to grab the silver behind a rival in good form (Patch Of Time, who goes around in the opening race) when only beaten half-a-length. He was snagged back from a high draw that day and seemingly was going nowhere when they came into the straight, but he grabbed the bridle once he balanced up and ran through the line with plenty of purpose. He’s entitled to improve for the experience, and the step up to seven-furlongs looks ideal.

Dangers:
3 Legends Of St Paul has been runner-up over course & trip at both starts and was only beaten a nose last time by a rival he was conceding 8lbs, and there should be further improvement forthcoming.
5 Jubilant Winner was a few lengths behind Legends Of St Paul when unplaced as favourite last time, but it was a race that set-up for the pace runners and it would be no surprise if he were to bounce back with a first-time visor fitted.
2 Endeared, who won over course & trip last season from a slightly higher mark, wasn’t beaten far over course & trip last time despite not having the rub of the green and although he draws the outside, the booking of Ryan Moore is a big plus.

Race 3: Class 3 Lord Kanaloa Handicap (7.35am SA Time) (6 furlongs)
13 LIFELINE EXPRESS has just the one win from ten starts, but he’s a consistent type that picked up the bronze behind Young Superstar, who he meets on 5lb better terms, over course & trip last time in a race that contained seven of the runners that line up here. The selection was snagged back to last from a high draw that night and was a long way from the leader, who made all, but he picked up strongly from an impossible position on the bend, finishing best of all. He goes from near the foot of the handicap and whilst he’s not a pace runner, he should be able to sit handier from the lower draw.

Dangers;
1 Savvy Brilliant won back-to-back races over course & trip before a strong effort in defeat when runner-up last time having been slow out of the gates, but he does have to concede up to 18lbs to his rivals.
4 Divano was a well beaten second favourite behind Young Superstar, who he meets on 6lb better terms, last time, but he was badly strung up on the rail in the straight that night and with McDonald sticking solid, he’s more than capable of bouncing back with a clear round.
6 Halo Of Success, who won one of his three starts in Australia, makes his local debut from a mark of 65, and with blinkers fitted after a couple of sharp trials, a market watch is strongly advised.

Race 6: Class 3 Jim & Tonic Handicap (9.25am SA Time) (9 furlongs)
8 FAMILY JEWEL is a promising young stayer in the making that won back-to-back races over the mile before a slightly luckless run last time over ten-furlongs when runner-up to Bravehearts, who he meets on 3lb better terms. Given that race contained nine of the runners that line up here, it does look the strongest form line for the contest. The selection was given plenty to do from a high draw that day but worked home in good style after been held up at the 400m mark, and from a kinder draw, he should be able to turn the form around.

Dangers:
1 Bravehearts, who represents the flying Mark Newnham yard, won over ten-furlongs with plenty of these in behind last time, including the selection, and he looks the main threat despite a 6lb penalty.
4 Star Mac, who won his only start in Australia, is yet to break his local duck in fourteen goes, but he has hit the frame over the mile at his last two when doing his best work late and will enjoy stepping up to nine-furlongs for the first time this season.
11 Sunstrider, who was a twice winner in Australia, is yet to break through in seven local starts, but he was placed in behind the top two selections last time and he is now on better terms.

Race 9: Class 3 Maurice Handicap (11.20am SA Time) (7 furlongs)
6 CHARMING LEGEND, who won both his starts in Australia, kept his unbeaten record intact when winning over course & trip on his local debut last month. He has been handed a 7lb penalty for that, but he travelled strongly throughout that day and seeming won with a bit in the locker. He’s a big lump of a horse (1237lbs), and those types normally improve as they mature, and although Purton has jumped off to ride Johannes Brahms, James McDonald is a very handy substitute.

Dangers:
13 Markwin moves up in grade under an 8lb penalty having broken his duck over course & trip at just his third start last month & although he has more on his plate in this grade, he won with plenty of authority and carries 12lb less at this level.
3 Johannes Brahms, who was placed in a Windsor Castle and a Gimcrack for Aidan O’Brien, ran a blinder on his local debut to finish third as it was his first run in over a year, he’s sure to come on for the run and Purton has taken the ride having won on the selection last time.
7 Galaxy Witness hasn’t lived up to his early promise nor has he won for quite some time, but he continues to run consistent races in defeat, and he’s been dropped 5lb in the handicap for his belated seasonal return.

Race 10: Class 2 Highland Reel Handicap (12.00am SA Time) (7 furlongs)
10 PACKING HEMROD is a low mileage progressive 4yo that won his first three starts over six-furlongs before tasting defeat for the first time at his most recent spin when runner-up over course & trip last month with several of these in behind. He wasn’t a luckless loser, but it certainly didn’t help that his rider lost his whip 150m from the finish. The selection has been handed a 3lb penalty for that, but he still goes from toward the foot of the handicap. His last run is probably good enough to win this, so with scope for further improvement, he should be a tough nut to crack with Moreira, who can do light weights, picking up the ride.

Dangers:
12 Rubylot was tad disappointing when unplaced and a few spots behind the selection last time, but he wasn’t beaten far and although he’s tactically versatile, he tends to run his best races when he has a solid gallop to aim at, which he should get here.
4 Drombeg Manner has recorded four wins over course & trip and was only one spot behind the selection last time who he meets on 2lb better terms, but he’s a pace runner drawn high & although they have a good run before the first bend, he may be forced to spend a few pennies to cross over.
13 Allcash won ten of his thirteen starts including a couple of Group 2’s in his native Brazil and after a couple of impressive trials, a market watch is advised on his local debut.

Today’s Place Pot will be races 5 through to 10. All up we will be playing 27 combinations (1x1x3x3x3x3), which will cost £2.70 for a 10p stake and so on. Good luck.

LEG 1- 1 KA YING RISING

LEG 2- 8 FAMILY JEWEL

LEG 3- 1 SOUL RUSH 2 VOYAGE BUBBLE 6 GALAXY PATCH

LEG 4- 1 ROMANTIC WARRIOR

LEG 5- 3 JOHANNES BRAHMS 6 CHARMING LEGEND 13 MARKWIN

LEG 6- 4 DROMBER BANNER 10 PACKING HERMOD 12 RUBYLOT

TIM’S BEST BETS
4.25am SHA TIN
PATCH OF TIME (NAP)

7.25am SHA TIN
FAMILY JEWEL (NB)

8.00am SHA TIN
GALAXY PATCH (EW)

Aidan O’Brien watches over his four HKIR runners at Sha Tin trackwork Picture: HKJC).

Champion trainer aims to go one better with stallion after changing tack for Sha Tin’s biggest meeting

by Jay Rooneyon (South China Morning Post)

Aidan O’Brien is bullish a switch in Longines Hong Kong International Races (HKIR) targets with Luxembourg will pave the way for a successful end to the stallion’s racing career at Sha Tin on Sunday.

Returning to Hong Kong’s biggest meeting with a team of four runners, champion Irish trainer O’Brien felt Luxembourg was in the wrong race 12 months ago despite only falling just short of upsetting superstar Romantic Warrior.

The son of Camelot loomed as the winner of the Group One Hong Kong Cup (2,000m), but was beaten a shorthead in second behind Romantic Warrior.

Now a four-time winner at the elite-level, Luxembourg will tackle Sunday’s Group One Hong Kong Vase (2,400m) on his final start before joining Coolmore’s National Hunt sires’ division next year.

“We felt last year we ran him in the wrong race,” O’Brien said. “He just got beat and it looked like a mile and a half would have suited him better. Obviously he was very unlucky to meet a special horse [Romantic Warrior].

“His was a very good run in the Breeders’ Cup last time – probably better than what anyone else thinks. We thought a mile and a half would suit him, so we find out now whether we did the right thing last year or not. He seems to be in good form.”

Luxembourg ran sixth to Rebel’s Romance in the Group One Breeders’ Cup Turf (2,400m) at Del Mar in November last start.

The five-year-old and star jockey Ryan Moore will bid to deliver O’Brien a fourth Hong Kong Vase. The Ballydoyle maestro’s only HKIR successes have come in the HK$24 million feature courtesy of Highland Reel (2015 and 2017) and Mogul (2020).

O’Brien will also run Continuous, the winner of last year’s Group One St Leger (2,800m) at Doncaster, in the Vase.

The Heart’s Cry colt led and faded to run 10th in the Group One Champion Stakes (2,000m) on soft ground at Ascot last start.

“Things haven’t worked for him this year, but he’s in very good form,” O’Brien said.

“A mile and a half will suit him well, if there’s an even pace that will suit him as well. I’m very happy with him.”

O’Brien’s other two runners, Content and Wingspan, will attempt to thwart Romantic Warrior’s bid for a record third Hong Kong Cup victory.

Content broke through for her first Group One success in the Yorkshire Oaks (2,371m) in August, while Wingspan was runner-up at the elite level in October’s British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (2,321m).

“Content’s obviously a very good filly,” O’Brien said.

“We saw what she did in the Yorkshire Oaks that day. Things just haven’t worked for her in her races since then, but she is in good form.

“Wingspan is a filly that’s improving all the time and gets a mile and a quarter well and relaxes very well. She will go forward, she doesn’t have to make [the speed] but we’ll be happy to make it and she should get the trip very well.”

Content and Wingspan are aiming to become the first three-year-old filly to win the Cup since Snow Fairy in 2010.

Moore will ride Content, while Wayne Lordan will ride Wingspan and Continuous.

While conceding he might not have his strongest HKIR team this year, O’Brien is positive his quartet can make an impact.

“Obviously they’re not favourites but they are very well,” he said. “We believe that it could happen. Obviously, it’s difficult. Variables that you don’t control have to fall, that type of thing, but it is possible.

“This is a very special meeting. I don’t think this time of the year anyone would want to be anywhere [else]. I think it’s exciting for racing all over the world [that] we can bring these horses together and we can get a handle on where the best horses are and who’s the best.”

Eldin Webber wins on the Kelly Mitchley-trained Union Rose (Royal Mo) to clinch a double for the day (Pauline Herman Photography).

Craig Zackey rode a treble at Fairview today, while Richard Fourie and Eldin Webber rode doubles and Alan Greeff and Gavin Smith both sent out doubles

Zackey is on 75 wins for the season at 16.38%.

Fourie is on 76 wins at 24.13%.

Webber is on 12 wins at 14.46%.

Greeff is on 51 wins at 14.45%

Smith is on 40 wins at 10.81%.

The picture gives a clue to the answer

What is the world’s richest turf race over 2000m.

The Longines Hong Kong Cup to be run this Sunday at Sha Tin has prize money of HK$40,000,000 and is the world’s richest turf race over 2000m.