Tim Carroll has selected Absurde to win the Melbourne Cup (Picture: justhorseracing.com.au)
Tim Carroll (At The Races)
1. VAUBAN (11)
Jockey: William Buick / Trainer: W P Mullins
Arrives a bigger price in a lessor renewal having bombed in the race last year when favourite on the back of impressive wins at Royal Ascot and Naas. Willie Mullins has purposely kicked off his campaign later this year and he arrives having had three starts since Royal Ascot instead of just the one. He’s been at the top of his game of late, winning the Lonsdale Cup at York before a strong effort in defeat behind Kyprios in the Irish St Leger, which is the best piece of recent form on offer. He’s obviously far more talented than what he showed when last in Melbourne. He wouldn’t be the first horse to win the Cup at the second time of asking, and unlike 12 months ago, given the make-up of the race, he now looks a decent price rather than over-bet.
2. BUCKAROO (21)
João Moreira / Chris Waller
Formerly a smart type for Joseph O’Brien, the now Chris Waller trained 6-year-old took a bit of time to find his feet Down Under but has quickly turned into one of the leading middles distance performers in the land. He won the Underwood Stakes in September before finishing a close second to Via Sistina in the Turnbull Stakes and was last seen rattling late to grab the silver when a beaten favourite in the Caulfield Cup. He has a tricky draw to contend with and there is a query over the this trip as he’s never won over further than 9f, but the Caulfield Cup is considered the leading trial for this, and the way he ran through the line from well off the pace that day was encouraging, and he looks one of the leading contenders for the locals.
3. CIRCLE OF FIRE (24)
Mark Zahra / Ciaron Maher
The former Sir Michael Stoute 5-year-old was the early favourite for the Melbourne Cup after winning the Sydney Cup in good style in April. However, he hasn’t fired in three starts during the current campaign, although his effort behind Via Sistina in the Turnbull Stakes earned a pass mark. He was well held in the Caulfield Cup when last seen, but there were plenty on the day than ran below par and it would be no surprised if a few who underperformed that day do better here. He represents the largest yard in Australia in Ciaron Maher, who has a habit of peaking them at exactly the right time, and although this race runs deeper than the Sydney Cup, he is one from one over the trip and, at 33/1 (at the time of writing), he wouldn’t be the worse outsider in the field.
4. WARP SPEED (3)
Akira Sugawara / Noboru Takagi
Japanese contender who will need to lift after an ordinary effort in the Caulfield Cup when he sat out the back and was one of the first to come under a ride but failed to pick up. On the plus side, that was his first run for a while, the Melbourne Cup has always been the target, and he wasn’t beaten far in the spring version of the Tenno Sho when last seen over this trip in April. Given his back form, you couldn’t completely write him off, but he’ll need to improve plenty on what we saw at Caulfield.
5. KOVALICA (17)
Damian Lane / Chris Waller
The Chris Waller 5-year-old is an intriguing runner as he’s a complete unknown over this trip and has only been over a mile-and-a-half on one occasion when he won the Queensland Derby in May of last year. It’s difficult to get a handle on his form from a two-mile perspective, but there’s some ‘numbers’ that would suggest he may be effective. He was last seen when well held in the Cox Plate, but his final furlong was the third quickest of the race behind only the winner, who is now the highest rated horse in the world, and the third, a smart Godolphin 3-year-old that was carrying 21lb less. He could be cabbage or caviar over this trip, but I’d prefer to keep him on the safe side.
6. SHARP ‘N’ SMART (15)
Michael Dee / Graeme & Debbie Rogerson
Likeable New Zealand 5-year-old trained by Graeme Rogerson, who won this race in 2007 with Efficient. He has some back form at Flemington, having been runner-up in the VRC Derby as a 3-year-old, and although he’s a big price for this (66/1 at the time of writing), he looked in good shape when a running on third in the Moonee Valley Cup on his most recent start. The shape of the race has changed in recent years, but plenty of Kiwis have won and run with merit in defeat, and whilst he wouldn’t be the most obvious winner, he’d worth including in any lavish exotic type bets.
7. JUST FINE (13)
J McNeil / Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
Formerly with Sir Michael Stoute, the now Gai Waterhouse-trained 7-year-old gelding won his way into the Cup when making all in the Bart Cummings over the extended mile-and-a-half last month on a rain effected surface. He then disappointed in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup when finishing last, and he has more on his plate here. Having said that, he’s probably better suited to Flemington where he can get into a rhythm somewhere on the front end, but the son of Sea The Stars has never been over two miles and looks opposable.
8. LAND LEGEND (18)
Zac Purton / Chris Waller
Formerly with James Ferguson, he’s a low-mileage 4-year-old that has thrived since joining Chris Waller and lands here having won the Metropolitan Stakes at Randwick before a strong effort in defeat when picking up the bronze in the Caufield Cup. He was well held by the winner, who doesn’t line up here, and five lengths behind Buckaroo, who he meets on similar terms, that day, but he was forced to make a run with five furlongs to go and stuck on strongly. He’s never been over this trip, but he looked a staying in the making when with James Ferguson and is one of the brighter hopes for the locals.
9. ABSURDE (7)
Kerrin McEvoy / W P Mullins
Was just over five-lengths behind the winner when seventh in this last year, a run that was better than the bare result. They ran the race at a solid gallop that day and he was the first home of those that sat close to the pace. He hasn’t been seen since winning his final lead up race at Chester in late August, which is similar to last year, and although they took a different route this time round, he ran to a 6lb higher mark in his final prep run this year. Willie Mullins hadn’t had him long when he came over 12 months ago, and I’d be surprised if he hasn’t improved him over the last year. Kerrin McEvoy, a three-time winner of this race, picks up the ride and although the weights are compressed, he does look well treated.
10. ATHABASCAN (2)
Zac Lloyd / John O’Shea
A winner in France as a 3-year-old for Andre Fabre, and now with John O’Shea, he does arrive having taken out the St Leger Stakes at Randwick last month. That wasn’t an overly strong race, but he was runner-up in the Sydney Cup earlier this year when two-lengths behind Circle of Fire, who he meets on 6lb better terms, which has been his only try over this trip. He has a bit to find with a few of the others, but his prospects would be enhanced if some rain arrived, which is unlikely according to the forecast.
11. KNIGHT’S CHOICE (6)
Robbie Dolan / John Symons & Sheila Laxon
Shelia Laxon became the first woman trainer to win this race with the brilliant mare Ethereal in 2001, but this fellow is not at that level, and he looks a genuine outsider. However, he did run better than the bare result when fifth in behind the Harry Eustace-trained Sea King in the Bendigo Cup last time and whilst he certainly doesn’t get close to the winner, with a bit of luck he could have finished second, but he looks out of his depth here.
12. OKITA SOUSHI (10)
Jamie Kah / Ciaron Maher
Joseph O’Brien travelled this fellow to Melbourne for the Cup last year and whilst he never looked likely, he ran better than his triple-figure quote. He’s now had four starts for Ciaron Maher, showing very little his first two but then taking a big step forward to finishing runner-up in the Herbert Power at Caulfield before taking out the Moonee Valley Cup with the former Derby winner Serpentine in second. He dives into deeper waters here, but he won over this trip early on in his career in Ireland, he’s improved every start and has claims with the light weight.
13. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (12)
Craig Williams / Brian Ellison
Brian Ellison hasn’t had a lot of luck travelling horses to Australia over the years, but they all changed as his 6-year-old gelding smashed his way in the field when sauntering to victory in the Geelong Cup. Much to the relief to connections, he was handed a penalty for that, which he needed to ensure a start in the big one. He doesn’t bring as sexy a profile as a few other internationals that have made their way down, but he’s been sent down early and proven that he is thriving in the local conditions. He has a bit of history on his side with Media Puzzle (2002), Americain (2010) and Dunaden (2011) all completing the Geelong-Melbourne Cup double, and Craig Williams was very quick to commit to the ride after their Geelong Cup success.
14. ZARDOZI (4)
Andrea Atzeni / James Cummings
Godolphin filly with a European pedigree that sees Andre Atzeni flying in for the rider. She enjoys Flemington having won two of her four starts on the track with her career highlight when successful in the Oaks here last Spring. She hasn’t been in the winner’s circle since March when she won the Phar Lap Stakes in Sydney under Tom Marquand, but she’s been ticking along nicely having been beaten a nose and protesting unsuccessfully behind Land Legend in the Metropolitan last month before a solid effort in defeat when fourth in the Caulfield Cup, albeit she was over eight-lengths behind the winner. She was last seen on the weekend when a fast finishing fifth in the Empire Rose over the mile, thus she is on a quick turnaround, but she looks a lightweight chance from a favourable draw.
15. SEA KING (1)
Hollie Doyle / Harry Eustace
Made his way into the field when winning the Bendigo Cup, which is the last ‘win-and-your-in’ for the Melbourne Cup. The Harry Eustace-trained gelding caught the attention of many that day, sitting mid-field before sustaining a wide run from a long way out, taking off well before the turn and sprinting clear to win by nearly four lengths. This demands more than the Bendigo Cup, but like Onesmoothoperator, who he finished one spot in front of when sixth in this year’s Ebor, he has proven he is enjoying life in Australia, and from toward the foot of the handicap, Hollie Doyle gets the call-up.
16. VALIANT KING (22)
Craig Newitt / Chris Waller
Hacked up in a Navan maiden for Joseph O’Brien last year, which has been his only win to date. He was runner-up to Vauban in the Ballyroan at Naas, and he did run well enough in defeat with sixth in last year’s Caulfield Cup. But he has shown nothing in three starts since joining Chris Waller having been well held when last seen in this year’s Caulfield Cup and it is impossible to make a case for on recent form.
17. FANCY MAN (19)
Ron Stewart / Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald
A 7-year-old that won then 2022 Lingfield Derby trial when with Richard Hannon. Although he hasn’t reached any great heights since joining Annabel Neasham and Rob Archibald, he did take out the Queensland Cup over a mile-and-a-half last year and has been solid in defeat all three starts this time in. He was last seen running sixth in the Caulfield Cup and whilst he never looked likely he was sneaking home when most where struggling, giving the impression he may take to the two miles. At 80/1 (at the time of writing), he wouldn’t be the worse ‘roughie’ for each-way players.
18. INTERPRETATION (14)
Theodore Nugent / Ciaron Maher
Was a three-time winning 3-year-old for Aidan O’Brien, and whilst he’s only managed the solitary success in Australia, he presents solid credentials for this. He turned in a wonderful performance in defeat in this last year, snagged back from a high draw before rattling from near the back at the two-furlong mark to finish sixth. He arrives having finished runner-up to Onesmoothoperator in the Geelong Cup, and whilst the winner was impressive that day, there was plenty to like about the performance as he ran through the long strongly from the back and will enjoy stepping up in trip. Looks a genuine lightweight chance.
19. MANZOICE (8)
Declan Bates / Chris Waller
Won the VRC Derby in 2022, which is a race that lends itself to future Melbourne Cup types. However, that was his last win and just his second from 21 starts. Whilst he showed a bit of pace, he faded to run seventh in the Moonee Valley Cup on his most recent outing, and he finished out the back in the Sydney Cup the last time he was seen over this trip in April.
20. MOSTLY CLOUDY (16)
Karis Teetan / Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young
Won five on the bounce in 2022 when with Gemma Tutty, and he got on the board at just his second start in Australia. Has been below par recently having been well held when last seen the Bart Cummings at Moonee Valley and is currently at a triple-figure quote. Whilst he will need to show more than he has his last few, it is worth noting that his record in both Europe and Australia in and around this trip reads 1-1-5-6-2, and Hong Kong-based ace South African hoop, Karis Teetan takes the ride.
21. POSITIVITY (20)
Winona Costin / Andrew Forsman
A 4-year-old Kiwi filly that was runner-up in a New Zealand Oaks before crossing the Tasman winning the SA Classic and the Naturalism Stakes. However, they weren’t over strong contests, she has been well held in the Bart Cummings and the Moonee Valley Cup at her last two, and she has a high draw to contend with.
22. SAINT GEORGE (9)
Tyler Schiller / Ciaron Maher
The former Andrew Balding inmate looks one to keep on the safe side. He was a two-time winner for Balding and finished runner-up to the very good stayer, Gregory, in the Queens Vase at the Royal meeting las year. Whilst he hasn’t shot the lights out in Australia, he was working home in stealthy style without threatening when fifth in the Moonee Valley Cup last time. He gives the impression that he’ll enjoy stepping up to two miles, and he goes from the very foot of the handicap.
23. THE MAP (23)
Rachel King / Dan Clarken & Oopy MacGillivray
Consistent mare that has won nine of her 32 starts, and whilst she wouldn’t be the most obvious winner, she does have a few things in her favour. She showed she gets the trip when runner-up in Adelaide Cup. She also has a good record at Flemington, winning two of her three starts, and she took out a lessor race on this card last year, so the occasion won’t get to her. She won the Ramsden when last seen here in May and whilst she has more on her plate here, she goes from the foot of the handicap carrying 14lb less than she did that day.
24. TRUST IN YOU (5)
Mark Du Plessis / Bruce Wallace & Grant Cooksley
Kiwi gelding who stays but looks outclassed in this spot. He’s had three runs in Australia in the lead-up to this, with his best effort when fourth in the Metropolitan behind Land Legend, and whilst he was making inroads that day, he dives into deeper waters here.
TIM CARROLL’S VERDICT:
Vauban brings the best form to the race and if you knew for sure that he’d run to his top, you’d be prepared to take a far shorter price than he currently is. However, he bombed badly in this last year, and its either a case of ‘all-in’ or oppose. Onesmoothoperator looked in rude health when scooting up in the Geelong Cup, which has proven to be a winning trial for the internationals over the years, and he does possess a strong finish for a stayer, which will hold him in good stead here.
Buckaroo has a tricky draw, and I doubt there’s been too many winners of the race that haven’t won beyond 9f previously, but his second in the Caulfield Cup is the best trial of the locals and he seems to be improving, despite being a 6-year-old. Sea King, who goes from the foot of the handicap with Hollie Doyle flying in for the ride, is low mileage for his age, and whilst he has more on his plate, he was hugely impressive when winning the Bendigo Cup, having also run with merit in defeat in the Ebor, which has always been a strong pointer for this. Interpretation ran better than the bare result when sixth in the race last year, in what was a stronger renewal than this, and he’ll also enjoy stepping back up to two miles.
ABSURDE put up as good a performance in the race last year as any of the beaten brigade, sticking on strongly despite taking it up a long way out, and with the race being dominated by the closers off what was a strong gallop. Like last year he had his last run at the end of August, and although he took a different route this year, he ran to a 6lb higher mark in this year’s lead up. Willie Mullins hadn’t had him all that long before last year’s race and I’ve no doubt he’s improved him since then. He has what looks to be a favourable draw, and with three-time Melbourne Cup winner Kerrin McEvoy picking up the ride, the stars looked to have aligned.
TIM CARROLL’S 1-2-3-4-5:
1. ABSURDE
2. Sea King
3. Interpretation
4. Onesmoothoperator
5. Buckaroo
Best longshot: Fancy Man
