Oriental Charm after winning the Gr 3 Hollywoodbets Dolphins Cup Trial (Candiese Lenferna Photography)

The Brett Crawford yard could land their second successive Hollywoodbets Durban July tomorrow at Hollywoodbets Greyville and they can do it with the three-year-old Vercingetorix colt Oriental Charm.

The yard seem to prefer Winchester Mansion, but the formlines point to it being a three-year-old race.

The three-year-olds are all weighted to finish together (hats off to the handicapper), but what could be in Oriental Charm’s favour is he is a handy to front-running type and will not have to negotiate the traffic that the like of Green With Envy will likely have to do.

The first thing in the favour of the three-year-olds is a conditions change which saw the minimum weight for an older male being raised to 54kg and the minimum weight for an older female raised to 53kg, while the minimum weight for a three-year-old male and three-year-old filly remain on 53kg and 52kg respectively.

The five older horses who are not under sufferance i.e. See It Again, Royal Victory, Winchester Mansion, Double Superlative and Son Of Raj, will also benefit from that new condition.

However, the collateral formlines point to the three-year-ods being in the pound seats.

The collateral form of the Daily News coupled with some Highveld features puts Green With Envy more than five lengths ahead of Royal Victory and Winchester Mansion on weight for age terms, using either Pure Predator or Hotarubi, and he is only 1kg worse off then weight for age with Royal Victory in the July and 1,5kg worse off than weight for age with Winchester Mansion.

Another example is Oriental Charm finishing just 0,30 lengths behind Future Swing in the WSB 1900 and he is now 3kg better off. Oriental Charm also beat Shoemaker by 1,20 lengths in the Hollywoodbets Dolphins Cup Trial over 1800m and he will also be 3kg better off with that one.

The outlier to the three-year-olds being comfortably favoured at the weights is Double Superlative, who is not far off them and a case could be made for him being closer to them at the weights than what the equations on paper say (see article below).

Nevertheless, Oriental Charm is progressive and has enjoyed a preparation that is virtually identical to the preparation the winnner Winchester Mansion had last year.

Winchester Mansion finished a 0,30 length second in the WSB 1900 last year, before winning the Cup Trial by more than three lengths.

Oriental Charm finished a 0,30 length second in the WSB 1900 this year before winning the Cup Trial cosily.

Like Winchester Mansion last year, Oriental Charm has been prepared for all of his Champions Season races out of Randjesfontein. Winchester Mansion proved last year, contary to popular anecdotal evidence, that it is possible to travel down three times and still win.

Green With Envy is probably the best of the three-year-olds, but the style in which he won both the Gr 1 Splashout Cape Derby and Gr 1 Daily News 2000 i.e. sitting at the back and then picking them off in the straight, is not an advisable strategy in the Hollywoodbets Durban July because there is going to be traffic in the straight and nobody gives an inch in this race. His draw of five will enable him to get handier, but will that then blunt his finishing speed?

Barbaresco is said to have a stamina doubt, but this belief might be based on him having been headstrong in some of his races. However, he settled very well in the Daily News 2000 and ran on well despite having been hampered halfway through the race. His pedigree suggests he will stay the trip, so he could be a big runner, although as one who needs to be sat on early so he doesn’t pull, it would have been better for him to have been drawn further out than two.

Flag Man could still be anything but does have a wide draw, so it will need to pan out well.

Purple Pitcher is a galloping type who would likely prefer Turffontein Standside. He will need to get going early.

Royal Victory has never been beaten beyond 1800m and won the Premiers Champions Challenge, despite not having the best of trips and he has had a good preparation. It is a long time since a July winner has come from pole position draw though, a draw which requires a horse to do some work early on to hold position and it can be rough near the rail as horses from wider draws try and get positions.

Master Redoute has a good turn of foot and could be good value for the first six.

See It Again is top class but has not had as good a prep and has not been in as good form as he was last year. Read the article below too to see how hard a task he has against Double Superlative.

Double Superlative is full of class but is probably one run short of his best. However, he put up a fine grass gallop subsequent to his official July gallop and he is a horse who is capable of turning his form around if right on the day, as he proved in the WSB Met, where he was also a 33/1 shot.

Winchester Mansion is said to be in fine form and ready for the race despite returning from a three month layoff. No horse has come from a longer layoff to win since Sun Tor did so in 1934, 90 years ago.

Future Swing is progressive and Richard Fourie has chosen him. He will relish the 2200m trip.

Future Pearl is a staying type but has a good turn of foot and could earn.

Shoemaker has plenty of potential and from a good draw should be running on.

Cousin Casey has a lot of class but his wide draw is against him because he can take a strong hold.

Aragosta should be staying on and could earn, although on form he looks well held by the three-year-olds.

Hluhluwe is believed to need ground so theoretically should enjoy the 2200m trip, but he disappointed in the WSB Cape Derby over 2000m and it didn’t pan out well for him when he was unplaced in the Daily News 2000. He is reported by the yard to have improved since being gelded after the Cape Derby and has his peak run here.

Son Of Raj should also be staying on but does not have the form to threaten.

Meridius has to prove he stays and will need to improve too.

The selection is Oriental Charm to beat Green With Envy with Barbaresco, Flag Man and Double Superlative next best.

Daniel Muscutt will be out to make history on Double Superlative (Picture: Wayne Marks) 

The WSB Met winner Double Superlative is out at 33/1 with the Hollywoodbets Durban July sponsor and this could be due to his well below par comeback run plus a report from the Justin Snaith yard that he is probably one run short of his best.

However, they did report yesterday (Thursday), “Double Superlative put in a superb gallop and had he had the benefit  of another prep-run, he’d be the horse to beat. This son of Twice Over is one run short of his best, but class does often prevail. He produced an eye-catching grass gallop this week. Don’t leave him out any bets!”

There has been a lot of talk and mathematics showing the three-year-olds to be in the pound seats.

However, one important piece of collateral form has not been mentioned and it puts Double Superlative close to the three-year-olds in terms of being well weighted on paper.

He beat Without Question by 1,65 lengths on weight for age terms in the Met.

That equates, over that trip, to a 1.65kg better performance than Without Question.

In the WSB 1900 Without Question gave Oriental Charm 4kg and lost by three lengths.

Oriental Charm was 1,5kg better off than weight for age and the equation shows that he only put in a 1,5kg better performance than Without Question.

So that puts Double Superlative slightly ahead of Oriental Charm on weight for age terms.

However, Oriental Charm goes ahead again, because he is 1,5kg better off than weight for age with Double Superlative in the July.

On the other hand Without Question was making a comeback run from a foot issue in the WSB 1900 and was unlikely to have been at his peak, whereas he would have been at hos peak in the Met.

This puts Double Superlative in the picture, provided he is able to produce his best off his less than ideal preparation.

The best fancied older horse See It Again is now at 6/1 compared to Double Superlative’s 33/1.

See It Again was obviously below his best in the Met.

But was he 7,25 lengths below his best?

Considering the distance of the July and the weights and the form of the Met, See It Again should finish 7,25 lengths behind Double Superlative on paper.

That is an enormous task even for a top class horse running against one who might still need it.

Daniel Muscutt, rider of Double Superlative, will be out to make history by winning both the Met and the July in his first respective rides in the two iconic races.

He would be well advised to look at last year’s replay and see what happened to another overseas jockey, Christophe Soumillon, who went for a run down the outside on Safe Passage and within strides the gap out there changed into a wall of horses in front of him and he had nowehere to go!

Barend Botes, S’Manga Khumalo and Qui Pro Quo have been tipped to follow up on their Gr 1 Allan Robertson Championship victory by winning the Gr 2 Zulu Kingdom Explorer Golden Slipper (Candiese Lenferna Photography)

At The Races

1 11:45 AM – Tabgold Fm 80 Handicap
Hollywoodbets Durban July day has arrived – Bet with TAB, MASSIVE POOLS are expected, and Jackpot 1 starts in Race 1. Juvenile LOCK AND KEY gets tested against her elders. The daughter of Master Of My Fate could not have been more impressive on debut and Richard Fourie sticks with her. FLAMBOYANT FLYER has run some fair races on the Highveld and with a 2.5kg apprentice claim and plum gate could make a decent local debut. RANI OF JHANSI is getting there steadily. It looks the right race. NETTLETON could show more on the Polytrack first time. VIHAAN’S QUEEN can follow up on a gutsy win.

2 12:25 AM – Omoda Mr 96 Handicap
The first of two BiPots – get your bets on timeously. THE GREY KING has shown bags of class and may have what it takes to make a solid poly debut. He is unbeaten in two starts over the distance on the turf. PRINCEOFGREEN ran a nice race after a rest last time and could be anything on the surface. He has drawn in gate No 1 again and can take advantage. QUEUE WING showed something like his best in a race filled with class last time. He could be dangerous from gate No 2. DIANI should relish the longer trip while GOOD TRAVELLER could also be looking for it on the poly.

3 1:05 PM – Splashout 2200 (Grade 3 Handicap)
The start of TAB’s Place Accumulator and a healthy pool can be expected. Three-year-old HLUHLUWE is also carded as a reserve in the big one but if takes his place in this could show his class. However, he needs to settle better in the early stages. MASTER FUEGO could take advantage carrying 7.5kg less than his fellow 3YO. He has done little wrong. PONTE PIETRA would be deserving. MUCHO DINERO is capable, RED MAPLE can fly up again.

4 1:40 PM – Dstv Gold Vase (Grade 3)
The start of MEGA P6 bet – a whopping R20 MILLION pool is likely! DOWN TO BUSINESS won the Listed Lonsdale Stirrup Cup in style and could follow up. He beat RAISEAHALLELUJAH by 1.05 lengths and is 0.5kg worse off and the latter has come out to win well so it should get close again. However, INDIAN OCEAN wasn’t far behind the pair and is weighted to finish in front. She runs like she could see out 3000m. EXPLOSIVE BOND has also given signs she has a decent race in her. She carries a light weight and jumps from a decent draw. NONE OTHER and ONE WAY TRAFFIC could also be in the fight.

5 2:20 PM – Zulu Kingdom Explorer Golden Slipper (Grade 2)
Trainer Barend Botes has a powerful filly in the form of QUID PRO QUO and she could add this Grade 2 event to hrr Grade 1 Allan Robertson Championship at Hollywoodbets Scottsville success. She may be hard to catch from gate No 1. GIMMIE’S COUNTESS looked a bit unlucky just behind QUID PRO QUO and is also a high quality sort in the making. She could get the right breaks this time. VJ’S ANGEL has turned in powerful performances upcountry but along with LITTLE BALLERINA who has won in both the Cape and on the Highveld, has to do it from a wide draw. Doesn’t end there, nice race!

6 3:00 PM – Durban Golden Horseshoe (Grade 2)
TRUTH will come out from a wide draw but he has been impressive in both starts and may still show how good he is. GREAT PLAINS has been amazing over 1400m, twice from wide draws and he should go further in time to come. But a wide draw against some of the best around could prove tough. The Gold Medallion form is tested. Winner of the Grade 1, PROCEED, should have no problem with the trip but he has drawn widest and will need a bit of luck. Stablemate COSMIC SPEED, runner-up in the Grade 1, could have better luck from gate No 2. Most are talented – watch out.

7 4:00 PM – Hollywoodbets Durban July (Grade 1)
The ‘JULY’ QUARTET is expected to sail to R15 Million so is worth getting involved in. GREEN WITH ENVY has done everything asked of him so far. Is he made of the quality needed for a three-year-old to carry 56kg and win over 2200m? We will soon find out. FLAG MAN took him to the wire but will need luck from a wide gate. SEE IT AGAIN rarely runs badly and has the class but will it be his day? ROYAL VICTORY has dominated on the Highveld and is drawn in gate No 1. He can win anywhere and he could do it for KwaZulu-Natal. Met winner DOUBLE SUPERLATIVE is one of many that can score! Get your bets on.

8 5:00 PM – Ridgemont Garden Province Stakes (Grade 1)
The Ridgemont Garden Province Stakes could be a rematch between RASCOVA and DOUBLE GRAND SLAM. The former had her way in the Grade 2 SA Fillies Guineas but there are other frontrunners that could spoil it for her. DOUBLE GRAND SLAM has drawn well and will have every chance. But the Grade 1 has attracted the best around including SILVER SANCTUARY who showed great versatility to win the Grade 1 TAB Gold Woolavington over 2000m last time out. RED PALACE impressed last time but she too is dropping in distance. If MRS BROWNING gets the distance she could be a player and so too game mare HUMDINGER.

9 5:40 PM – Post Merchants Stakes (Grade 2)
With Grade 1 Golden Horse Sprint runner-up AT MY COMMAND and third-placed stablemate I AM GIANT having drawn wide the race takes on a open look and it may pay to go wide in the exotics. CRUISE CONTROL, who finished fourth in the abovementioned race, has drawn well and could enjoy himself up front. He should have every chance. MELECH, who wasn’t far behind could be the dark horse from a plum gate. Watch out for CAFE CULTURE who has secured gate No 1 and has Richard Fourie up. He is a hard one to pass once in front. TEFLON MAN and ROYAL AUSSIE must be respected. More can upset.

10 6:20 PM – Compendium Insurance Brokers Listed Handicap
Another race where bets like the Trifecta and Quartet should pay well. GET IMPRESSED did well to win over the course and distance despite over-racing. He may settle better and follow up. FORMAGEAR didn’t give of his best over further last time. He is dangerous over this distance so must be included. Stablemate THE SHEPHERD had Dave The King ahead of him and Royal Victory behind him last time and could stay 1600m. NARINA TROGON should have a big say on current form but that is if he can overcome his wide gate. ON THE HORIZON could be on the up. More with earning potential.

11 7:00 PM – Brentford FC Pinnacle Fillies And Mares Stakes
CAPTAIN PEG could be the value option. She has the form to run well over the course and distance especially as she has drawn well for the in-form yard of trainer Stuart Pettigrew. But SHANTASTIC has run two decent races in a row and would be deserving. Best weighted TROPPO VELOCE just needed her last run. She should come on in leaps and bounds and make a race of it. SHIPHOLIA loves the poly but again showed she can mix it with the best around and must be taken seriously. JUST BE LEKKER, WONDERFUL, LE PREMIERE and BALTIC SECRET need to be respected as well.

12 7:40 PM – Gagasi FM – Mr 90 Handicap
Nice speed race to end. CHOCOLATE SOLDIER is getting better with time. He should have a big chance from gate No 1 if taking to the poly. BLACK EGRET is proven on the surface and is holding form. He has also drawn well and rates a serious contender. Watch out for KINSHIN SHA who shows good pace and could be looking for the surface. He could turn the form around with AMBER ROCK this time but the latter is capable and needs to be respected. YAMADORI won easier than the margin suggested fitted with blinkers but has drawn widest this time. RIDE ON and ESQUEVELLE can be included as well.

The official Hollywoodbets Durban July panel discussion was posted in Wednesday’s newsletter.

Here is the panel’s take on all of the other races on the day.

CLICK HERE TO SEE TIHE PANELISTS VIEWS

Lot 72, Lovecomesknocking, by Gimmethegreenlight out of Eros’s Girl by Captain Al sells for R1,9-million to KZN’s racing stalwart Mrs Mary Liley, consigned by Klawervlei Stud as agent. This is the family of Captains Lover, Vardy, Universal and Ebony Flyer.
Images: Candiese Lenferna

Records fell at Thursday’s KZN Yearling Sale, where high prices and a strong middle market prevailed. The sale’s top lot, the Gimmethegreenlight filly Lovecomesknocking (Lot 72), was knocked down to Mary Liley for R1 900 000.

Consigned to the sale by Klawervlei Stud (Pty) Ltd (Agent), the blue blooded filly, whose full-sister Lovegrass recently won for a second time in four starts, is out of Listed East Cape Oaks winner Eros’s Girl (Captain Al), a three-parts sister to Equus Champion Captain’s Lover (Captain Al), and half-sister to the Gimmethegreenlight sired G3 Politician Stakes winner and G1 Jonsson Workwear Cape Deby runner up Universal, and to Equus Champion Vardy.

Clifton Stud had some wonderful results at the KZN Sale this year, and they consigned the second top lot sold at the 2024 KZN Yearling Sale. Lord Wimborne (Lot 103), a Canford Cliffs half-brother to recent G1 Daily News 2000 runner up Flag Man, was knocked down to Vuyo for R900 000. Lord Wimborne, a half-brother to four winners aside from Flag Man, is out of the winning Mark Of Esteem mare Irresistible Chris, a half-sister to not only July winning champion Eyeofthetiger (Royal Academy) but also G3 The Debutante winner Best Chris (Trempolino).

An active buying bench and keen market saw prices and statistics rise across the board. Not only was the top lot a record price sold at the KZN Yearling, but the aggregate and average price both rose significantly. The sale’s aggregate rose handsomely from R27.1 million to an impressive R39 075 000, with the average price rising from R184 354 to R214 698.  Median price from R140 000 to R150 000, while the top price jumped considerably from R750 000 last year to R1 900 000 in 2024.

The sale’s top vendor was Klawervlei Stud (Pty) Ltd (Agent) who sold all ten lots for an aggregate of R5.85 million. Top buyers at the 2024 KZN Yearling Sale was Pound Bloodstock who purchased 15 yearlings for R3 515 000. The Klawervlei Stud bred One World led the Sires standings at the auction, with the champion son of One World having all 12 of his yearlings on offer gross R4 115 000 and average R342 917.

A full list of prices and statistics for the 2024 KZN Yearling Sale can be viewed online at www.bsa.co.za

City Of Troy, ridden by Ryan Moore, on their way to winning the Derby. Photograph: John Walton/PA

At The Races

1 2:15 PM – Coral Play ‘Racing-Super-Series’ For Free Handicap
STORM STAR lost little in defeat when finishing fourth behind some potentially useful rivals in a hot novice event at Kempton last month and, making his handicap debut off what looks a workable mark, the son of Night Of Thunder gets the tentative vote in a competitive affair. Swindon didn’t look entirely at home on the track when fourth over a mile at Goodwood on his handicap bow most recently, and better can be expected off an unchanged mark, while recent C&D winner Spanish Blaze must also enter calculations in a fascinating renewal.

Top Tip: STORM STAR (4)
Watch out for: SWINDON (2)

2 2:50 PM – Coral Charge (Group 3) (Registered As The Sprint Stakes)
Live In The Dream is undoubtedly a high-class performer over the minimum trip and he merits respect, but on the back of a below-par effort in a Haydock Listed race last month, it may pay to side with DESPERATE HERO. Jack Channon’s charge accounted for multiple subsequent winners when bolting up over 5f in a Hamilton handicap last time, and this upwardly mobile sprinter looks worth his place at this level. Classy on his day, Twilight Calls is well capable of playing a hand in a race of this nature and, sporting cheekpieces for the first time, a bold showing is anticipated.

Top Tip: DESPERATE HERO (3)
Watch out for: LIVE IN THE DREAM (5)

3 3:25 PM – Coral Challenge (Handicap)
Perotto (third) got the better of HOLLOWAY BOY (fifth) when the pair met in the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot last month, but the latter wasn’t seen to best effect after being short of room at a crucial stage before running on well close home. With that in mind, Karl Burke’s charge gets the vote to reverse that form off 1lb better terms en route to victory here. Two Tempting (first) and Classic (second) battled it out over C&D last month and the duo look to have solid claims of at least hitting the frame once more.

Top Tip: HOLLOWAY BOY (2)
Watch out for: PEROTTO (4)

4 4:00 PM – Coral Distaff (Fillies’ Listed)
Soprano got up to take the Sandringham at Royal Ascot by half a length last month and that performance has earned her a rating of 107, which makes her the top-rated in this contest. However, she looks worth taking on with the John & Thady Gosden-trained REGAL JUBILEE. The daughter of Frankel suffered interference at a vital stage when taking home the silver medal at this level at Goodwood in May and, with a clearer passage this time around, she could be the one to beat. Clove Hitch has plenty of scope for improvement and is another to keep an eye on.

Top Tip: REGAL JUBILEE (5)
Watch out for: SOPRANO (6)

5 4:35 PM – Coral-Eclipse (Group 1) (British Champions Series)
Derby hero CITY OF TROY is likely to prove a very warm order for this contest, as that form has already been franked with his stablemate, Los Angeles (third), taking the Irish Derby last week. Aidan O’Brien’s colt has his first attempt at this trip, but he showed plenty of pace as a juvenile, so that is unlikely to catch him out. Ghostwriter looks the main danger after he finished in front of the selection in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and he backed that up with a respectable fourth in the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly. Dancing Gemini may improve for this drop back in trip and he completes the shortlist.

Top Tip: CITY OF TROY (4)
Watch out for: GHOSTWRITER (6)

6 5:12 PM – Coral Racing Club Handicap
Midnight Rumble impressed when scoring over this trip at Lingfield and should go well if transferring that form back to turf off a 6lb higher mark. Fellow last-time-out winner Dramatic Effect also appeals, with the step up in trip potentially a source for improvement. However, the latter was no match for BLAKE when they clashed here in May and, having subsequently finished a respectable fourth over 1m2f in a deeper race at Epsom, Peter Chapple-Hyam’s colt shades preference back at this happy hunting ground.

Top Tip: BLAKE (3)
Watch out for: MIDNIGHT RUMBLE (7)

7 5:47 PM – Coral Daily Rewards Shaker Handicap
The weight-for-age allowance hands the three-year-olds, Dambuster and BALMACARA a potentially big advantage. While the former is open to any amount of improvement on his handicap debut, the latter has latent potential in his pedigree and can make the greater strides now he faces a sterner test of stamina, with a first-time hood added. Chasing Aphrodite is feared off just 4lb higher than his C&D win last month, while Persica and Truthful are other solid contenders to monitor in the betting.

Top Tip: BALMACARA (14)
Watch out for: DAMBUSTER (15)

Jollify, who dead-heated with the great Sea Cottage in 1967, was the last horse to win the July from pole position, meaning Royal Victory will have to defy 57 years of history.