Fourie Barometer 389 (updated after racing on 25/06/2024)

James Crawford Bullish About Both July Runners

James Crawford looks thrilled as he pulls out draw eleven for Oriental Charm (Candiese Lenferna Photography)

James Crawford drew barrier positions nine and eleven for the Brett Crawford yards two Hollywoodbets Durban July charges Winchester Mansion and Oriental Charm and he is bullish about both, but appears to marginally prefer the reigning July champion, Winchester Mansion.

The Drakenstein Stud-homebred Trippi gelding will have to defy 90 years of history because not since the 1934 winner Sun Tor has a horse come off as long a layoff as Winchester Mansion’s to win the big race.

James said, “He’s doing very well back at home (at Randjesfontein). His prep’s been flawless. People say they’re a little bit worried since he hasn’t had a prep run, but a lot of that’s got to do with the kind of weight that he’s going to carry in the July. For us it’s all tactical (i.e. the yard decided to protect his weight rather than give him another run). I couldn’t have him in a better space, to be very honest. I think he’s doing better than he did when he won the July last year. I’m exceptionally happy. His draw’s good. I think there is enough speed around him for him to find his place and put himself in a good position. I think it also keeps him away from the bunch. I’m satisfied with the draw. I think we’ve got a good chance of defending our title this year.”

He said about Winchester Mansion’s weight of 56,5kg, “I’m very happy with that weight. For See It Again to be giving us three and a half kilos again this year, it could be history in the making again. I think for the other stronger three-year-olds, Green With Envy and Flag Man, I will only be giving them half a kilo and a kilo. I really do make him a massive runner.”

He said about Oriental Charm, “He’s absolutely flying. He’s coming in with a nice bottom weight of 53kg. I think draw 11 is also going to suit him well. Like I say, it keeps you away from the mess a little bit. He does look to be a horse that enjoys going to the front and enjoys dictating the race on his terms. So I think that draw’s going to suit him quite nicely. JP is going to be able to put him in a place where he’s comfortable and where he can keep him happy, but also without having to burn up too much horse to do that. His preps have been flawless. He’s had the exact same prep that Winchester did last year into the July, which a lot of people haven’t noticed, but are starting to notice now. I couldn’t be happier with him either. His prep’s been flawless. I think with 53kg and the kind of running style he has, I think he must be a respected.”

At this point it was put to James that he seemed to prefer Winchester Mansion and he replied, “I do think Winchester is the better horse. I think only getting three and a half kilos from Winchester, I think Oriental’s going to have a lot to do against that kind of horse. But, I wouldn’t take anything away from him. He won a very gutsy race last time out. He had to carry top weight and he had to do it the hard way. He went to the front giving all the horses a lot of weight. It looked like they were pegging him back at one stage, but when JP finally squeezed him, he went and found again. For me, it wasn’t the best of fields that he beat, but to do it the way he did it with the weight that he was carrying was very impressive. I also make him a big runner.”

Oriental Charm was beaten 3,25 lengths by Green With Envy in the Gr 1 Splashout Cape Derby, but he is now 3kg bettter off.

James said, “He’s exactly on the spot with Green With Envy. We also tried to be tactical with his rating. We knew after the 1900, we had so many pounds to spare coming into the July. Obviously, a little bit of it changed around with See it again coming down the weights and Green with Envy obviously going up. I think it suited us quite nicely because Oriental is exactly on his mark. I really do make him to be a big runner. Green with Envy also has it, of course there is healthy respect for some other horses in the race, but I think with a three-kilo swing, I think Oriental is very capable of turning it around.”

Kabelo Matsunyane will be out to make July history on Winchester Mansion. Not one of the previous six dual winners of the July had the same jockey aboard for both wins.

The 1934 winner Sun Tor came back from a 161 day layoff (23 weeks) to win the July (he was trained by Jackie Angles and ridden to July glory by fourteen-year-old Albert Rugg, who is the late Uncle of current East Cape trainer Duncan McKenzie and the grandfather of another former East Cape-based trainer Jarett Rugg.)

Winchester Mansion will be coming off a 91 day layoff (13 weeks) which will be the longest layoff a winner has come off since Sun Tor.

JP van der Merwe will be going for his first July win on Oriental Charm.

The Crawfords will have two chances to land their second July victory.

No Suprises At HWB Durban July Final Field & Draw Ceremony

The 2024 Hollywoodbets Durban July Final Field and Draws (Candiese Lenferna Photography)

There were no surprises in the Hollywoodbets Durban July final field announcement and connections had mixed feelings about their charges draws.

Rachel Venniker, denied a first ride in the R5 million Gr1 Hollywoodbets Durban July two years ago when injured five days before the big race and last year with her charge only being made second reserve, gets her chance this year when she partners Without Question for Justin Snaith and owner Nick Jonsson.

The final field was unveiled at a glittering function in Durban this afternoon. Twenty of the cream of the country’s middle distance horses will line up over 2200m at Hollywoodbets Greyville on Saturday 6 July, the field headed by last year’s winner Winchester Mansion and runner-up See It Again. The latter shoulders top weight of 60kg and will again be ridden by Piere Strydom for Michael Roberts.

The race holds special significance for both trainer and jockey. Roberts, a winner of the race aboard Super Quality back in 1997 for David Ferraris, will be attempting to win it as a trainer while Strydom has delayed his intended retirement to ride the Twice Over colt and hopefully end his career on a high note with a record-equaling fifth win in the big race. See It Again put in an eye-catching performance in the Gr1 Hollywoodbets Gold Challenge in his final preparation and is one of the big fancies in the betting. Roberts was hoping for a draw between 1 and 6, He had also asked Piere Strydom where he would like to draw and the latter replied, “10”, and that is exactly where he drew.

It has been many years since a KZN-trained horse has won the July, the last being the Ricky Maingard-trained Space Walk in 1994, although he won it fotuitously after an objection involving two other horses. The last KZN-trained horse to cross the line first in the big race was the Dennis Drier-trained Spanish Galliard, who was ridden by Robbie Sham in 1992. Roberts came close last year with See It Again but joining him this year with an outstanding chance is Summerveld-based colleague Nathan Kotzen who saddles Royal Victory.

The biggest cheer during today’s cermony was from Royal Victory’s connections when part-owner Peter Victor drew pole position for the Pathfork gelding. However, there are some who believe that to be a difficult draw as the horse will have to do some work to hold his position. A winner of both the Gr1 Betway Summer Cup and the Gr1 Champion’s Challenge at Turffontein, Kotzen has elected not to give his charge a warm-up race and it will be interesting to see what the plans will be for Royal Victory in the July gallops which take place on Thursday, June 27 where all the July runners will be on show in the compulsory lead-up to the big one.

English-based jockey Daniel Muscutt, son of KZN-based trainer Peter Muscutt, will be attempting to add the July to his CV after winning the Gr1 WSB Cape Town Met earlier this year. Muscutt will again be aboard Met winner Double Superlative (16) for Justin Snaith and Nick Jonsson.

Snaith has three runners in the race that include Without Question (6), Double Superlative and Future Swing (4), the mount of record-breaking jockey Richard Fourie. Snaith also trains Hluhluwe, the first emergency acceptor should there be a scratching before Friday week.

Ruling ante-post favourite before the announcement of the draws was the Gr1 Daily News 2000 winner Green With Envy (5), who will be looking to give Dean Kannemeyer his fourth July winner. Interestingly, Green With Envy ‘s draw of number five means he carries the green saddle cloth humber.

Green With Envy will again be up against the Summerveld-based Gareth van Zyl-trained Flagman (17) who shot to prominence when running Green With Envy to a shorthead in the Gr1 Daily News 2000. Flagman is now 0.5kg better off in the weights that equates to around half-a-length. The draw could be a telling factor between these two three-year-old rivals.

Brett Crawford, saddled last year’s winner Winchester Mansion (9) who will again be partnered by Kabelo Matsunyane and recent Hollywoodbets Dolphins Cup Trial runner up and WSB 1900 winner, Oriental Charm (11) will be ridden by JP van der Merwe who, like Matsunyane last year, will be hunting his first July victory. Winchester Mansion’s saddle cloth colour of turquoise corresponds to some extent to the cornflower blue of owners Drakenstein Stud.

Crawford appears to have planned the front-running Oriental Charm’s path perfectly as he comes into the race with bottom weight for his age group. Alongside him in the weights is Gr1 SA Derby and Gr1 SA Classic winner Purple Pitcher (8) trained by Robyn Klaasen. Purple Pitcher is owned by Stinkie Pooe who was part owner of Second Base who finished fifth in last year’s July. Purple Pitcher will be ridden by Philisande Mxoli who will also be having his first ride in the race.

Sean Tarry has two runners in Cousin Casey (15) and Future Pearl (18) and also second emergency acceptor Hotarubi.

Mike de Kock, winner two years back with the filly Sparkling Water, has two runners in Aragosta (7) and Shoemaker (6), both at long odds in the betting market. He will be going for a sixth July win.

Tony Peter also saddles two runners in former Gr1 SA Derby winner Son Of Raj (12) and Meridius (13), both at fairly lengthy odds in the betting market.
Andre Nel sends out Master Redoute (14).

Johan Janse van Vuuren’s runner Barbaresco drew well at 2.

Rachel Venniker On The Cusp Of History ... Again

Rachel Venniker pulls out draw three for her mount Without Question (Candiese Lenferna Photography)

A one week wait has turned into a two year wait for Rachel Venniker to become the first woman to ride in the Gr 1 Hollywoodbets Durban July.

However, after her mount Without Question was announced among the top 18 horses at today’s Final Field and Draw ceremony she is now just eleven days away from realising a dream.

Two years ago she was also booked to ride a horse who made the final field, the Joe Soma-trained Red Saxon, but in the last race in a Monday meeting on the week of the July a freak accident saw her sidelined with concussion and she had to be booked off the big race.

Last year she was booked to ride the Erico Verdonese-trained Jimmy Don, but much to her disappointment he was made second reserve.

So the relief when Without Question made it into the final 18 today would have been significant.

She said today after drawing barrier position three, “ Beautiful draw, I’m so happy with draw three. That’s actually my favourite gate number, so I’m over the moon.”

No wonder she did a bow to the audience after pulling that number out herself at the draw ceremony!

Without Question is trained by Justin Snaith and is owned by Nick Jonsson, who is the owner of the company, Jonsson Workwear, which sponsors Rachel.

The United States four-year-old gelding was strongly fancied for last year’s July, but ran a most disappointing 11,65 length 16th.

However, he has got into this year’s race due to his third place finish in the Gr 1 wfa WSB Met.

The Met has actually been Without Question’s only place in six outings this season, but some of his runs have been preparation outings and he also had one interruption.

He was due to run in the Gr 1 wfa Premier’s Champions Challenge on the Highveld, but had to be scratched for foot soreness.

Jonathan Snaith said later Justin has got his feet “perfect” at Summerveld before his comeback run in the Gr 2 WSB 1900, where he finished an encouraging three length seventh considering he was carrying topweight.

However, next time out he disappointed in the Gr 3 Tabgold Derby over 2400m, finishing a 4,70 length seventh. He was caught in a one out and one back position without cover in the Derby, which was not ideal. However, after moving up well in the straight to hit the front and then finding no extra the question mark had to be raised about his stamina capacity, considering he also failed in the July last year.

Rachel replied to the stamina question, “I think he does get the trip and I know him very well now. He got the 2,000 in the Met, so I don’t think an extra furlong will make a difference.”

She said about the Derby run, “It wasn’t quite his run, but we’ll do what needs to be done and hope for an even better run this time. Hopefully he can reproduce his Met run. I work with him almost every day and have got to know him very, very well since I first partnered him in the Met. He’s doing well and we’ll try our best. I’m really looking forward to it, he is such a lovely horse.”

One World Breaks His Father's Record

One Liner makes it individual winner number 24 for his sire One World (Picture: Wayne Marks)

Drakenstein Stud’s sensational freshman sire One World became a record-breaker on Saturday at Turffontein when his Fanie Bronkhorst-trained filly One Party won a Maiden Juvenile Plate over 1450m under Muzi Yeni.

She was his 23rd winner and he had thus beaten the 2004/2005 freshman record of his father Captain Al of 22 individual winners.

When his Harold Crawford and Michelle Rix-trained first-timer Varsfontein colt One Liner caused a 25/1 upset in the second race over 1000m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Tuesday, getting up by a short-head under Craig Zackey, it was individual winner number 24.

His 24 individual winners have won 32 races between them.

Two of them are stakes winners and they have won three races between them.

One World, fresh from his record-breaking feat, was up in lights earlier in Tuesday’s meeting too.

In the first race his Vaughan Marshall-trained daughter Worldcraft, who is out of the twice Gr 3-winning Witchcraft (Kahal), won a strong Juvenile Plate over 1100m in impressive style by a length under Ashton Arries.

The question now is whether One World can break Captain Al’s overall individual two-year-old winners in a season record of 30, which he set in 2009.

He seems likely to do it, considering there is still five weeks of the season remaining.

Mc Dazzler And Turn Around Look To Be Bankers

The Real Prince has been tipped to win race 6 (Picture: Wayne Marks)

Jack Milner (The Citizen)

Both Mc Dazzler and Turn Around should be hard to beat in their respective races on Wednesday at Hollywoodbets Greyville.

Dean Kannemeyer, who is the conditioner of current Hollywoodbets Durban July favourite Green With Envy, will be hoping Mc Dazzler is one of some decent runners who can win for him on the day.

Mc Dazzler was expected to win his second local start after an eye-catching second to Gorgeous Dude, and after moving up smoothly shirked the fight when more experienced Run To Rio came up strongly from behind.

Having run second in his last two starts he appeared to be the type who could benefit from gelding – and that operation has now been performed.

He should have a big chance of opening his account in Race 3, a Maiden Handicap over 1400m on the Polytrack. It his third run over the course and distance and the field looks light on opposition, even if it is a handicap.

Move To Prove has improvement to come but he finished 9.55 lengths behind Mc Dazzler when they met and is only 3.5kg better off.

Turn Around, for fellow Western Cape trainer Glen Kotzen, is racing in a set-weights Maiden in Race 4 over 1200m, and arguably could have even less to do. He turned in a promising debut when showing good pace, only finding overdue and seasoned gelding Professor Lupin one better over 1200m.

It was a gallant run for a juvenile taking on his elder in three-year-old Professor Lupin who was highly regarded at one stage.

Jack Milner’s selections

Race 1: 6 Like A Butterfly, 4 Ladybug, 5 Head Girl, 1 Take Your Time

Race 2: 3 French Duchess, 7 Her Royalty, 1 Elusive Belle, 4 Qondanekukhanyeni

Race 3: 6 Mc Dazzler, 8 Move To Prove, 3 Accumulate, 5 Cosmic Captain

Race 4: 3 Turn Around, 6 Kinnikinnik, 4 Record High, 2 Salt ‘N Peppa

Race 5: 5 Vision Of Will, 4 Perfect Trust, 8 Swiss Paradise, 1 Pantea

Race 6: 8 The Real Prince, 5 Except Temptation, 3 Ibutho, 1 Donquerari

Race 7: 1 Fashion Mistress, 6 Zululanga, 4 Purple Powahouse, 8 Ndaka

Race 8: 8 Whatsupbuttacup, 1 Summer Song, 7 Doctor’s Orders, 9 True Love’s Kiss

BEST BET

Race 3: 6 Mc Dazzler

VALUE BET

Race 5: 5 Vision Of Will

BEST SWINGER

Race 2 3×7

BIPOT

R20

Leg 1: 4, 6

Leg 2: 3, 7

Leg 3: 6

Leg 4: 3

Leg 5: 1, 3, 4, 5, 8

Leg 6: 8

PLACE ACCUMULATOR

R96

Leg 1: 3, 7

Leg 2: 6

Leg 3: 3

Leg 4: 4, 5, 8

Leg 5: 8

Leg 6: 1, 4, 6, 8

Leg 7: 1, 7, 8, 9

PICK 6

R648

Leg 1: 6

Leg 2: 3

Leg 3: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8

Leg 4: 8

Leg 5: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

Leg 6: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

JACKPOT 1

R72

Leg 1: 3

Leg 2: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8

Leg 3: 8

Leg 4: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

JACKPOT 2

R648

Leg 1: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8

Leg 2: 8

Leg 3: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

Leg 4: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

Rab Havlin out to crown resurgence on Ambiente Friendly at Irish Derby

Ambiente Friendly (Photo: Dan Abraham / focusonracing.com)

Brian O’Connor (Irish Times)

Mon Jun 24 2024 – 20:42

It’s not often 50-year-old jockeys qualify for novice status, but Rab Havlin will be forced to concede substantial course experience at the Curragh on Sunday when teaming up with the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby favourite, Ambiente Friendly.

The veteran Scottish rider was a surprise pick to replace Callum Shepherd on the James Fanshawe-trained colt in the Epsom Derby earlier this month and on just his third ever blue-riband ride, Havlin guided Ambiente Friendly to finish runner-up to City Of Troy.

With the latter waiting for next week’s Eclipse at Sandown, Ambiente Friendly is set to avail of his free supplementary entry into the €1.25 million Curragh Classic at Tuesday’s acceptance stage. The English star is a general 5-4 favourite to emerge on top.

Victory would put a seal on Havlin’s late-career resurgence. As John Goden’s No 2 rider, he was forced to play second fiddle to his great friend Frankie Dettori until finally winning a Group One in 2022 on Commissioning in the fillies’ mile at Newmarket.

His only other top-flight victory came last month with a surprise success on Audience in the Lockinge at Newbury. He did taste Classic glory a dozen years ago, however, in the 2012 Derby Italiano in Rome. He has also landed the Oaks in Italy.

Ambiente Friendly’s owner Bill Gredley opted for Havlin at Epsom due to his greater experience, but it’s hardly a factor at the Curragh.

Havlin last rode at HQ in 2007 when unplaced in the Goffs Fillies’ Million on the Michael Bell-trained Shaker. He had just a handful of Curragh rides before that without success. They included finishing runner-up on Place Rouge for John Gosden in the 2003 Blandford Stakes.

Ambiente Friendly has over three lengths in hand of Los Angeles on Epsom form, although the latter is on home ground this time and is set to have the services of Ryan Moore for the first time in his career.

Moore finally won the sole Irish Classic to elude him a year ago on Auguste Rodin. It was his 12th Irish Derby spin. Aidan O’Brien is pursuing a 16th victory in the race. In contrast, Fanshawe’s sole Irish Classic was with Arctic Owl 24 years ago. He also landed the Matron with Soviet Song in 2004.

Havlin has continued to team up with Ambiente Friendly in his work since Epsom and been pleased with his reaction to the Epsom experience.

“He was always going to be a horse that went one way or the other after Epsom. He was a breeze-up horse, and they’ve done quite well settling him down. Riding him since Epsom he seems to have relaxed again even more,” he said.

“Coming at the race that way rather than chewing at the bridle again, that should stand him in good stead.

“I’m really excited, can’t wait, counting down the days, The horse, it’s as if he’s read the script himself, he’s maturing every day. Every time I ride him, he’s more relaxed and friendly. I know mentally he’s improved, all the ticks are in the boxes after Epsom, and he’s come out of Epsom with flying colours.”

One horse already out of the Derby reckoning is Deira Mile, who finished fourth at Epsom but is giving the Curragh a swerve.

“I’ve spoken to the owner this morning and we’re just going to give him a little bit more time,” trainer Owen Burrows said. “We feel that the Leger really is his race and he’s got one or two other entries abroad later on. He’s not going to get confirmed tomorrow and we’ll be swerving Ireland.”

Derby week sees one of the world’s greatest jockeys in Ireland as the US star Johnny Velazquez will be in action at Naas on Wednesday evening.

The Puerto Rican, who has ridden almost 7,000 winners including all three legs of the US Triple Crown, teams up with Dermot Weld for De Janeiro in a five-furlong maiden on a card that features the Al Shira’aa Oaks Trial.

Weld and Velazquez successfully teamed up in New York in 2017 to land the Man O’War Stakes at Belmont with Zhukova.

Wednesday’s Oaks Trial field includes the English hope Seaward, who is hoping to bounce back from finishing last to Ezeliya at Epsom. Moore is on Greenfinch for O’Brien, one of just two rides on the card for the Englishman.

On the back of O’Brien being crowned leading trainer at Royal Ascot for a 13th time, City Of Troy has hardened into a 4-6 favourite with the sponsors for his Eclipse attempt next week.

“Following six winners for the Ballydoyle and Coolmore team at the Royal meeting, punters have turned their attention to City Of Troy’s Coral-Eclipse bid, and the impressive Derby winner is now 4-6 to emulate Epsom greats like Nashwan and Sea The Stars,” said a Coral spokesman.

Happy Valley Wednesday Formguides And Selections

Lyle Hewitson and Helene Warrior are tipped to win the 8th race (Picture: HKJC)

Tim Carroll (At The Races)

Tim made it 5 wins from his last 6 best bets on Sunday, and our Hong Kong guru provides another trio for Happy Valley on Wednesday

This Wednesday sees a nine-race card from Happy Valley, which gets underway at 11.40am – live on Sky Sports Racing. The feature of the meeting is race 7, the Class 2 Tan Shan River Handicap, over 6 furlongs, offering prize-money of more than £284,000.

Now onto this week’s selections.

Race 1: Class 5 Nam Chung River Handicap (11.40am) (1 mile 3 furlongs)

4 ARTHURS KINGDOM, who won a 2yo maiden at Gowran Park in 2019 for Aiden O’Brien, has finally found some form in Hong Kong, which has coincided with a step up in trip & more aggressive tactics. The selection won over course & trip two back with no less than five of these behind, and although on worse terms here, he won easily that day. He was last seen when runner-up at Sha Tin, once again with a few of these in behind, and he looks the natural leader in a race offering no more than a modest gallop.

Dangers:

5 Go Go Go is a long-standing maiden that has been one spot behind the selection at his last two starts and is 1lb better off here than last time, and although a tad one paced, he’s only had two starts beyond nine furlongs and seems to enjoy going over a bit further.

1 Absolute Sunshine has struggled since arriving from Australia as a twice winner from four starts, but he drops into the bottom grade for the first time and with the 7lb claim, he could show up here.

10 Green Laser has just one win from thirty-four starts, but it did come over course & trip from a 2lb higher mark earlier in the season and from the foot of the handicap, he is worth including in any exotic type bets.

Race 2: Class 4 Ng Tung River Handicap (12.10pm) (6 furlongs)

3 ROARING BEBE is a thrice raced maiden that looks a work in progress, but he met with support last time when running with merit in defeat despite showing signs of greenness and if the first-time cheek-pieces have the desired effect, he should run well. The selection was slow out of the gates at his most recent start and had to be ridden along to grab a spot slightly worse than midfield, and was beaten less than two lengths despite the rider barely being able to go after him in the straight due to him hanging in. It’s difficult to say what left in the locker when they do that sort of thing, but he was still strong through then line despite not being fully tested and hopefully the added head gear will work the oracle.

Dangers:

1 The Perfect Match goes up 6lb having broken his duck over course & trip at just his third start last time, and although he had the run of the race and was all out to win, the first two were clear of the others and he is entitled to improve further.

5 Hayday, who has been placed two from two over course & distance won over this trip at Sha Tin two back and although well held in fourth at the same venue last time, he was in a photo for the minors and the winner looks well above average.

8 Hercules is a veteran that can be hard to catch, but he looks well placed with the 7lb claim for Ellis Wong.

Race 3: Class 4 Beas River Handicap (12.40pm) (1 mile)

2 RED MAJSETY has been a wonderful servant for connections and arrives having start fifty-seven as a 7yo and will be looking for his tenth win over course & trip. To be fair, he doesn’t win too often but he takes a drop in grade now and his record dating back to September 2021 at this level reads 1-3-1-5-2-1. You only need to go back to March the last time he won over course & trip, and he’s just 2lb higher in the handicap here. It’s worth noting that Hugh Bowman was on board Comet Splendido last time, who is the only last start winner in the race yet takes the ride on the selection.

Dangers:

3 Sixth Generation, who was unplaced last time, but that was on a yielding surface, had run well in defeat his previous two from the top of the handicap when runner-up in both, and he’s on 4lb better terms with Comet Splendido having finished in front of him when they last met.

1 Comet Splendido goes up 5lb having won over course & trip last time and although that was just his second win in two years, the last one was from a 9lb higher mark at a level above this.

12 Super Eagle ran above market expectations when fourth last time, which was his first go at this trip in over a year, and he drops a further 2lb in the handicap.

Race 4: Class 4 Ng Tung River Handicap (1.10pm) (6 furlongs)

2 LEAN MASTER was heavily supported when winning over course & trip last time, and there’s been some form come out of the race with the runner-up since placed at Sha Tin, and the fourth has subsequently won. He went from the front last time and with only one other pace runner here (One For All) he’s likely to either lead or grab the tail of his rival, with either scenario favourable. He does go up 6lb for his last win, but in what looks a shrewd move, connections have replaced a senior rider with 7lb claimer Ellis Wong, meaning he is now effectively slightly better off.

Dangers:

1 Denfield didn’t have the rub of the green when given plenty to do before finishing fifth last time on his first run at this level since winning over course & trip in October from a 2lb higher mark, and Hugh Bowman now takes over.

3 One For All, who is a speedy type, has had a couple of recent setbacks, but he was a thrice winner over course & trip last season and ran his best race form only a handful of starts this season last time, and drops a further 2lb.

12 Dan Attack has his limitations, but he did win over course & trip in February, he drops 2lb which sees him on his last winning mark, he goes from the foot of the handicap and the race maps favoruably from the low draw.

Race 5: Class 4 Pearce Memorial Challenge Cup (Handicap) (1.40pm) (1 mile)

5 CANT GO WONG is proving costly to follow with just the one win from twenty-three local starts, but he continues to run well in defeat and has strong collateral form with several here. The selection recorded his sole local success over course & trip in March and hasn’t been outside the top four in five subsequent starts which includes finishing second to I Can, who he meets on 2lb better terms having been a luckless beaten favourite when they last met. The selection is no leader, but he is versatile, the draw in 5 looks ideal and although he’s been finding it tough to get his head back in front, this looks a winnable contest.

Dangers:

2 Setanta won over course & trip last month before a below par effort on a yielding surface but bounced back to form last time finishing second beaten a lip, but he will need some luck as he’s a late closing type.

4 Atomic Beauty had no luck last time, a run best forgotten, and he recorded a win and two placed efforts over course & trip at his previous three starts, but they do like to ride him handy, and he’ll need to get across from the outside draw.

1 I Can goes from the top of the handicap and has drawn high, which won’t make things easy, but he’s only had the four runs over course & trip for a win and a couple of solid performances in defeat.

Race 6: Class 4 Ng Tung River Handicap (2.10pm) (6 furlongs)

5 PACKING HERMOD is a debutant from a yard that is currently only two winners behind the leader in the coveted trainers title this season, and the booking of Purton would suggest a forward showing is expected. Trials need to be treated with caution, and this fellow hasn’t won any of his, however, he has moved very nicely without being asked any questions in all of them. The betting will probably tell the story, and I would like to see some market support, but I suspect he’ll run well.

Dangers:

3 Scotch Tycoon has been good in defeat at his last two, he was runner-up when last seen over course & trip two back behind a well-supported rival that he was conceding 6lbs, and he should have all the favours close to the pace from the low draw.

2 Prime Mortar has had a light campaign this season, and although he bombed last time, that was on the dirt at Sha Tin and he did win very easily the start prior over course & trip, albeit from an 8lb lower mark.

11 Mr Good Vibes broke his duck at start eleven over this trip at Sha Tin last time and although he moves up in grade under a 6lb penalty, he does carry 13lb less at this level.

Race 7: Class 2 Shan River Handicap (2.45pm) (6 furlongs)

3 COPARTNER PRANCE has been progressing at a rate of knots recently and arrives having won five races on the bounce which has seen his rating shoot up 36lbs in just over three months. The Francis Lui 4yo was last seen winning at Sha Tin when having his first spin at this level, with some smart types in behind. His previous four wins had all be here at Happy Valley and although you could argue the handicapper will catch him at some point, he should have the run of the race from stall 3, and I think he go in again despite a 6lb penalty.

Dangers:

7 Copartner Ambition, who can be forgiven a below par effort last time having had a tough run and found to be lame post-race, is a four-time winner this season and although this would require a career best, he is likely to sit off what should be a strong gallop with a late shot.

1 Superb Capitalist arrives on a course & trip three-timer having won his last two in good style and he is well drawn given he’ll look to punch forward, but a 7lb penalty sees him at the top of the handicap in what is a very competitive sprint.

10 Reward Smile, who was just over two-lengths behind Superb Capitalist last time, but he was having just his second run this year after a setback, is on 7lb better terms with that rival, and is likely to be ridden cold from the high draw in a race offering a strong gallop.

Race 8: Class 3 Sha Tau Kok River Handicap (3.15pm) (1 mile)

5 HELENE WARRIOR, who was a twice winning juvenile for Michael Bell when known as Red Zone Hero, broke his local duck in good style at his fifth start when winning comfortably over course & trip last time. He did have a soft spin behind the leaders that night, but this race maps for similar, and he put the race to bed at the top of the straight last time, with margins between all the place getters. He does go up 8lb for the win, but it’s hard to argue with that, and my only ‘slight’ concern is that both his wins for Michael Bell were on soft going and he won on good-yielding last time, but if he repeats the dose, he’s the one they all have to beat.

Dangers:

2 Hameron has been given a bit to do at his last two starts and had no luck two back when not beaten far, but from the low draw they may be able to ride him a tad closer this time and there is a strong gallop on offer which will help ensure he’s afforded every opportunity.

1 Splendid Living goes from the top of the handicap, but he’s won four of his last eleven starts over course & trip, he takes a drop in grade and is perfectly drawn for a pace runner, but this will require a career best.

8 Beauty Infinity, who represents a high-end combination, bombed when having his first try over this trip last time, however, they rode him cold that night, which is not the normal tactics, and he took a keen hold, but there’s a stronger gallop on offer this time.

Race 9: Class 3 Shek Sheung River Handicap (3.50pm) (6 furlongs)

10 KYRUS DRAGON, who was a twice winner in Australia, is yet to break his local duck in nine starts, but he’s been knocking on the door and looks worth a play in a wide open and competitive Class 3. The selection had a few of these in behind when runner-up to Happy Fat Cat last time, who he meets on 4lb better terms, having come from near last at the top of the straight to only just miss. To be fair, they went a good gallop that night, but there’s a solid gallop on offer here which will help. Although I don’t know if he jumped or was pushed, Alexis Badel , who was on top in five of his last six starts, takes the ride on Ka Ying Cheer, but they don’t always get it right.

Dangers:

1 Kaholo Angel goes from the top of the handicap, but he hacked up here three back and lost very little in defeat his last two having rattled home both times after being snagged back from high draws, and whilst he’s no leader, he does now have a low draw.

9 Ka Ying Cheer hasn’t won since his debut at Sha Tin in October, but he has run well in defeat having hit the frame all three starts on the city track, and he’s perfectly drawn in 1 given they will look to punch forward.

2 Happy Fat Cat has won four times over course & trip this season including last time out when he had a few of these behind, but a 6lb penalty sees him on a career high mark.

BETTING ON HONG KONG RACING

Punters can bet into the Hong Kong pools online through Tote.co.uk

WEDNESDAY’S PLACEPOT

Today’s Tote Place Pot will be races 4 through to 9. All up we will be playing 81 combinations (1x3x3x3x1x3), which will cost £8.10 for a 10p stake and so on. Good luck.

LEG 1- 2 LEAN MASTER

LEG 2- 2 SETANTA 4 ATOMIC BEAUTY 5 CANT GO WONG

LEG 3- 2 PRIME MORTAR 3 SCOTCH TYCOON 5 PACKING HERMOD

LEG 3- 1 SUPERB CAPITALIST 3 COPARTNER PRANCE 7 COPARTNER AMBITION

LEG 5- 5 HELENE WARRIOR

LEG 6- 1 KAHOLO ANGEL 9 KA YING CHEER 10 KYRUS DRAGON

TIM’S BEST BETS

11.40am HAPPY VALLEY

ARTHURS KINGDOM (NAP)

1.10pm HAPPY VALLEY

LEAN MASTER (NB)

3.15pm HAPPY VALLEY