Fourie Barometer 380 (updated after racing on 30/05/2024)

19 more wins needed to break the record

Is Green With Envy's 127 Merit Rating Harsh ... Or Lenient?

There has been a storm over Green With Envy being awarded a 127 merit rating after winning a “messy” Gr 1 Daily News 2000 in which he narrowly beat 92-rated Flag Man, but what does logic say about the handicappers’ analysis of the race? (Candiese Lenferna Photography)

There were three ways to merit rate the Gr 1 Daily News 2000, the low route, the medium route and the high route, and the handicappers opted for the medium route.

The appeal against the 127 merit rating given to Green With Envy appears to be based on the belief that he himself should have been the line horse and some voices said it was wrong that a horse who had never raced beyond 1600m before, i.e. Mid Winter Wind, was used as the line horse in a 2000m race.

Where this is contradictory is that they are asking for a horse who gained his merit rating over 1600m, and not 2000m, to be used as the line horse.

Green With Envy was awarded a 123 merit rating on his Gr 2 WSB Guineas win.

In fact retrospective handicapping of Green With Envy’s Gr 1 Spashout Cape Derby win over 2000m has him running to as high as 128 in that race.

He beat the 117 merit rated Beach Bomb by 2,75 lengths giving her 2,5kg, which equates to a 128 merit rated performance; he beat the now 118 rated Oriental Charm by 3,25 lengths in the Derby, which equates on paper to a 125 and he beat the now 116 rated Hluhluwe by 5,25 lengths, which equates to a 127 performance. That is not even taking into account how easily he won the Cape Derby.

Beach Bomb ‘s only previous middle distance run was in the Gr 1 weight for age Cartier Paddock Stakes over 1800m, which she won, beating the Equus Horse Of The Year Princess Calla. So she was a valid line horse, but the handicappers opted instead to take the lenient view and made Hluhluwe the line horse.

There was no outcry over using this horse as the Cape Derby line horse in his first race beyond a mile.

That only put Green With Envy on a 119, which was then raised to 123 after his WSB Guineas win.

So asking Green With Envy to be the line horse for the Daily News would have been problematic, because a) he achieved his 123 rating over 1600m and b) it was difficult to equate how high a rating he ran to in the Cape Derby over 2000m and Politician Stakes over 1800m, because he won so easily and retrospectively he ran way better than the 119 he was awarded.

The most obvious line horse for the Daily News 2000 was Pure Predator on a number of scores.

He had finished a two length fourth in the Gr 1 TAB SA Classic over 1800m and a 0,25 length second in the Gr 1 SA Derby over 2450m.

However, the true measure of how good the three-year-olds are is when they face older horses and when Pure Predator did such in the Gr 2 Colorado King Stakes over 2000m he won easily.

He beat Aragosta in that race by 4,05 lengths on weight for age terms.

When the handicapper raised Royal Victory to 125 for his Gr 1 Premier’s Champions Challenge run, they used Aragosta as the line horse … and he beat him by only 3,75 lengths on weight for age terms.

So the handicappers once again opted for the route of leniency after the Colorado King Stakes by using three-year-old Hotarubi as the line horse and giving Pure Predator only 119.

What further makes Pure Predator a valid line horse for the Daily News is he beat Hotarubi by 0,90 lengths in the Colorado King Stakes, he beat him by one length in the SA Classic and he beat him by 1,65 lengths in the Daily News.

That sort of consistency over middle distance trips points to both of those horses being valid line horses.

If they rated the race on Pure Predator as line horse, then Green With Envy gets a 129 or 130.

If Hotarubi is used as the line horse then Green With Envy gets 130.

So once again the handicappers opted for leniency by making Mid Winter The Wind the line horse. They used an analysis of his sectional times to form the opinion he had stayed the trip.

Furthermore, they explained that, by using Mid Winter Wind as the line horse, then Pure Predaor runs to the same rating of 116 that he achieved in the SA Classic.

So that saw Green With Envy escaping with a four point raise instead of a five, six or seven point raise.

Could they have used Flag Man or Barbaresco as the line horse?

That would have had Green With Envy running to either a 93 rating or a 114 rating.

It is unlikely his performance could have dipped that far even if the race was called “messy” with a muddling pace.

In fact, when looking at Green With Envy’s performance it has to be asked how many horses in South Africa would have been able to win the Daily News 2000 the way he did? He sat at the back and watched them and was still detached by about two lengths at the 700m mark. He then came way wide into the straight to get around the field and such is his natural acceleration that that manoeuvre did not stop him hitting the front by the 300m mark. Then for the first time in his career he was challenged over this trip. However, despite having made up all that ground already, and doing it running wide around them, he still managed to fend off Flag Man, who had come from a relatively handy position.

However, the connnections of Green With Envy would have obviously preferred the low route, which would have seen Green With Envy staying on 123.

But would that not have been doubly lenient?

Flag Man’s connections have reportedly also appealed against his merit rating of 126.

In 2021 Got THe Greenlight successfully appealed against the 128 merit rating he was given after winning the Gr 1 Premier’s Champions Challenge. This consituted a four point raise and the connections claimed he should not have been given any raise from his pre-race rating of 124.

Interestingly, the appeal board press release stated:

The Panel was of the opinion that the race should be rated using the winner at his pre-race rating of 124. By using this rating, this would also bring into line, three of the first six horses past the finish line and that they would also then have run to their pre-race ratings – those being GOT THE GREENLIGHT (124), CIRILLO (120) and DIVINE ODYSSEY (110).

Comparing this to the Green With Envy finish, if the latter is given a 130 rating after the Daily News, then:

Pure Predator would have needed to be beaten only 5,50 lengths to run to his pre-race merit rating of 119 and he was beaten 5,30 lengths;

Mid Winter Wind would have had to be beaten only seven 7 lengths to run to his pre-race rating of 116 and he was beaten 5,60 lengths;

Hluhluwe would have had to be beaten 6,50 lengths to run to his pre-race rating of 117 and he was beaten 6,80 lengths;

Hotarubi would have had to be beaten 7 lengths to run to his pre-race rating of 116 and he was beaten 6,95 lengths;;

William Iron Arm would have had to be beaten only 6,50 lengths to run his pre-race merit rating of 117 and he was beaten 7,10 lengths.

So that is no fewer than five horses who have run to their pre-race rating … if Green With Envy is given a 130.

So what chance is there of the appeal being upheld and his merit rating staying on 123?

One would think very little.

Derby-July Double: Try Los Angeles With Royal Victory And Without Question

Los Angeles, who came round the outside of the home turn in the Leopardstown Derby Trial, could end up being the horse punters come for on the day of the Epsom Derby CREDIT: Lorraine O’Sullivan/PA

The Molly Column (by David Mollett)

There are two races that set the pulses racing at this time of the year – the Betfred Epsom Derby and Hollywoodbets Durban July – so it would be both satisfying and rewarding for punters to catch the double.

The Derby is run on Saturday and my fancy is the O’Brien runner, Los Angeles, to maintain his unbeaten record and give his trainer his 10th victory in this famous race. Those looking for a longshot should consider Jim Crowley’s mount, Deira Mile.

Despite his 17 lengths defeat in the 2000 Guineas, City Of Troy remains the 2-1 favourite with the sponsors. O’Brien commented: “He was too fresh at Newmarket – he’s been in good form since and everything has gone according to plan.”

This still hasn’t allayed the fears of many UK pundits and one comment caught my attention. “Looking at him from a purely physical aspect, he didn’t seem to have looked as well at three as he did last year.”

The big factor in Los Angeles’ favour is the likely soft ground – he won the Gr 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud in heavy ground. His jockey, Wayne Lordan, feels this is his trump card over stablemate, City Of Troy.

The three year-old is a son of 2012 Derby winner, Camelot. Though the latter is yet to sire an Epsom classic winner, he has produced 11 Gr 1 winners.

About Los Angeles, O’Brien said: “He’s a very off-handed horse and very straightforward. Even as a two year-old we thought he was doing more than he should for a horse of his size.”

The forecast rain is also a worry for supporters of second favourite, Ambiente Friendly. The owners of the colt have taken plenty of flak for replacing Callum Shepherd (who won the Lingfield Derby Trial) with the more experienced, Rab Havlin.

After partnering Ambiente Friendly in a workout at Newmarket, Havlin commented: “I hope we don’t get too much rain before Saturday. The ground will be a worry if we get too much rain as he has that real low action.”

So what’s the double we’re taking into the Hollywoodbets Durban July? We couple 6-1 chance Los Angeles with two horses to run a place at Greyville, Without Question and Royal Victory. The former is 4-1 for a place and the latter 56/25.

In last month’s column, I recommended the support of Without Question for a place when the Snaith inmate was 6-1. He’s now 4-1 with World Sports Betting and 3.2-1 with Hollywoodbets.

Muzi Yeni has had to live in the shadow of Richard Fourie all season but – rather like Manchester United upsetting City in the Cup Final – that will all be forgotten if the 37 year-old wins SA’s most popular race.

Muzi’s best chance of July glory came two years ago when he was booked to ride Mike De Kock inmate, Safe Passage. Unfortunately, he had to settle for third place behind S’Manga Khumalo on Sparkling Water.

Royal Victory has had a number of different jockeys in his career including S’manga Khumalo and Calvin Habib, and Muzi has only ridden the four year-old three times. But two of those wins have come in big Joburg races this term – the Betway Summer Cup and Champions Challenge.

Without Question was reported to be blowing heavily after his recent KZN run and he’s sure to strip a fitter horse on July 6. A reproduction of his Daily News third behind See It Again will put him firmly in the mix.

Green With Envy – narrow winner of Saturday’s Daily News 2000 – is out to 28-10 from 5-2 with World Sports Betting and punters would be well advised to hold their fire. A drift to 7-2 looks a distinct possibility.

So Los Angeles to win and Royal Victory to place has to work out around 16-1 and the O’Brien horse to win and Without Question to place in the region of 30-1. The Derby is off at 17h30 (SA time) and carries a first prize of 850 650 pounds.

Bass-Robinson Has Three Lively Chances At Festival Of Speed Meeting

October Morn is pictured winning the Gr 2 Cartier Sceptre Stakes under Raymond Danielson (Picture: Wayne Marks)

Candice Bass-Robinson has the two highest rated fillies in the Gr 1 SA Fillies Sprint, the 115-rated October Morn and the 114-rated Winter Cloud.

They have been at Summerveld together with her other runner on the day Symphony In White, who runs in the Gr 1 Allan Robertson Championship.

Candice said, “All three of them are doing well and they are all lively runners. It’s difficult to assess them because it’s a nightmare track, either they’re suited to it or they’re not. But they’re all in good shape.”

In the SA Fillies Sprint the What A Winter filly Winter Cloud jumps from draw 15 under Aldo Domeyer.

Anthony Andrews has won on her in her last two starts and three times overall, but Domeyer is generally the yard’s first call rider and he gets the ride here.

Raymond Danielson won the Gr 2 Cartier Sceptre Stakes on October Morn, the first time he had ridden her, and he gets the call up here to try and make it two out of two.

Candice said, “I don’t prefer one over the other. There’s not much between them as can be see on their form. It all depends on who gets luck in the running. Winter Cloud has drawn on the outside, which is not ideal, and the other one has never raced at Hollywoodbets Scottsville before. Winter Cloud seemed to be suited to the track last year. She shouldn’t have a problem with the track.”

Symphony In White has won two of three starts.

She is by What A Winter out of Captain Al mare Snowdance, who won the Gr 1 Cape Fillies Guineas and the Gr 1 Majotca Stakes over a mile and she also finished second to crack filly Celtic Sea in the Gr 1 SA Fillies Sprint.

Symphony In White was beaten 7,45 lengths in her only feature race to date, the Gr 3 Cape Of Good Hope Nursery over 1200m at Holywoodbets Kenilworth.

However, she had no luck in running that day and was eased after being hampered in the closing stages.

The form of that race is not a fair reflection on her ability and in any case none of the horses who beat her that day are lining up in the Allan Robertson.

The Bass yard have been plundering big races in KZN for decades.

However, this season, with Charles Dickens having been retired to stud and Beach Bomb now in the USA, they are a bit thin for the Champions Season.

In fact October Morn, Winter Cloud and Symphony in White are Candice’s only runners in KZN at present.

She is undecided on whether to send Listed Stormsvlei Stakes winner Red Palace, who was also runner up in the Gr 1 Hollywoodbets Cape Guineas against the boys, to run in the Gr 1 Ridgemont Garden Province Stakes on

Hollywoodbets Durban July day.

Golden Horse Sprint And SA Fillies Sprint Video Previews

I Am Giant will be out to upset the applecart in the Gr 1 Golden Horse Sprint (picture: JC Photos).

Michele Wing of Gold Circle compiled the below video previews of the Gr 1 Goden Horse Sprint and Gr 1 SA Fillies Sprint respectively.

PREVIEW : Golden Horse Sprint Gr1

It could all come down to ‘luck’ in the grade 1 Golden Horse Sprint

Comments From Trainers

11. LUCKY LAD : “I have been very happy with his preparation. His last win in the ‘Senor Santa’ was really good … he came from a long way back and hit the line really strong. His 2 prep runs before that were ideal. He’s well weighted. I have healthy respect for Surjay, who meets him on a 2 kilo pull from their last meeting and Dyce, who may improve after gelding”, Sean Tarry.

3. SURJAY : “Absolutely flying. Best I’ve ever had this horse. 54 ½ kgs is the lightest weight he’s carried in a long time. A good draw from gate 3 makes him a serious contender. He needed his last run and come on a ton. He’s a very big runner”, James Crawford.

7. DYCE : “Dyce took his gelding very well. ‘Striker’ came and rode him on Friday (a week ago) and said the horse gave him a nice feel. Unfortunately, we’re giving a lot of weight away to good horses, but we can’t sit in the stable and complain about it. I think he’s good enough”, Lucky Houdalakis.

1. I AM GIANT : “He’s flying at home and his form is showing it. He is under sufferance with the likes of Dyce. He’s drawn 1, with regular pilot Kabelo (Matusnyane) aboard so you can expect an honest run. He will appreciate the Scottsville 1200”, James Crawford.

8. AT MY COMMAND : “The first time in a long time that he’ll carry 54 ½ kgs. We couldn’t have him in a better space heading into this race. His last race he got a little stuck as he’s a horse who doesn’t appreciate the going to be sticky. The Scottville ‘12’ does run like a ‘14’ with the uphill, which is something he will relish”, James Crawford.

Total of 16 runners carded

CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE PREVIEW FOR THE GOLDEN HORSE SPRINT

Saturday 01 June 2024 Hollywoodbets Scottsville Race 8 15:45

CLICK FOR FIELD : https://www.tabgold.co.za/fixtures/race-card…

PREVIEW: South African Fillies Sprint Gr1

Candice Bass-Robinson holds a double handful in the South African Fillies Sprint

Comments From Trainers

4. OCTOBER MORN & 15. WINTER CLOUD : “Both fillies have travelled up well from Cape Town. They’ve been up here just over 2 weeks. They’ve been to the track (Hollywoodbets Scottsville). Winter Cloud raced at the track last year … she ran 2nd in the Allan Robertson Championship, so she is familiar with the track. It’ll be the first time October Morn will be racing at ‘Scottsville’, so that is always an unknown. Winter Cloud is drawn wide on the outside, but she was drawn there last year as well. There’s not much between the 2 fillies and it may depend on luck in running. They seemed to have travelled well enough and should run well”, Candice Bass-Robinson.

13. ASIYE PHAMBILI : “She’s doing very well in herself and I’m happy with her training. She’s come out of her last run very well and won a good race. The going that day was soft, which would have helped her, as she’s ideally a 14 – 1600m horse. She’s a happy horse, and very sound and fit at the moment. Since she’s come back from Cape Town, she’s a rejuvenated filly. Rachel has done well, only having the one ride on her. Asiye Phambili ‘takes to her’ and she’s an honest filly. She always gives ‘500%’ and Rachel’s handling will suit her. I hope we can get her into the winner’s box, but it’s going to be a tough and competitive race. We are going in with a match-fit horse”, Duncan Howells.

5. MRS BROWNING & 12. WINTER GREETING : “Third run after rest. Their last runs were both very good … Mrs Browning winning a fillies feature (TAB Camellia Stakes Gr2) and Winter Greeting running a length off Lucky Lad in the ‘Senor Santa’ Gr2. Both should improve in this start. It’s a competitive line-up, but I wouldn’t be surprised if either of those fillies had a big say in the finish. I’m happy with their preparation and looking forward to the race”, Sean Tarry.

16 fillies and mares go to post

Saturday 01 June 2024 Hollywoodbets Scottsville Race 7 15:10

CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE SA FILLIES SPRINT PREVIEW

CLICK FOR FIELD : https://www.tabgold.co.za/fixtures/race-card…

CLICK FOR RACECARD : https://www.tabgold.co.za/fixtures/race-card?date=20240601&itw=XED&race=

Winterbach Stud's Proper Pair For The CRS Winter Yearling Sale

Lot 115 is by Futura and is a half-sister to Gr 3-placed Foreshore (Ideal World)

Picturesque Winterbach Stud, situated on the outskirts of Stellenbosch, send two yearlings to next week’s Cape Racing Winter Yearling Sale at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth.

They will follow one after the other near the end of the auction, as Lot 114 (a One World colt) and Lot 115 (a daughter of Futura.)

The colt’s dam is Mon Cherie (by Querari), a three-quarter sister to Mill Queen who won the Gr3 Starling Stakes and finished second in the Gr1 Thekwini Stakes. One World has made a tremendous start to his second career – the Gr1 Sun Met victor has unveiled fine juveniles in his first crop, including Cape of Good Hope Nursery winner, One Stripe.

The Winterbach’s have bred Futura, a stamina influence with 16 stakes winners from 154 runners, to seven-time winning mare, Sounds Positive. She won between 1200m and 1800m and all three her foals to race are winners, including the G3 Flamboyant Stakes placed, Foreshore and three times successful filly, Certainly.

Hendrik Winterbach’s email address is winterbach.stud@gmail.com with cell phone 082 465 4433. He will be happy to answer any queries and arrange viewings in stables C31 & C32.

The helpful Pinhook incentive scheme, introduced in 2023, will again be a sale feature at CRWYS. This incentive allows speculators to make purchases at this sale while only having to pay for the stock once selling at the Ready to Run Sale in October ’24.

In another pleasing perk, all graduates qualify for the CRS Juvenile bonus, which pays R100,000 to the winning connections.

DOWNLOAD IMAGES: https://www.caperacingsales.co.za/2024/05/28/crs-winter-yearling-sale-vendor-promotion-winterbach-stud/

ENDS

For racing queries and sales queries, contact Justin Vermaak at justin@caperacing.co.za or Janine van Blerk at janine@caperacing.co.za

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Lucky Houdalakis' Three-year-old Sprinter Dreamland Continues To Progress

Dreamland wins for the fourth time in succession and was never under any pressure (JC Photos)

Lucky Houdalakis said recently it was too early for his well bred Lancaster Bomber gelding Dreamland to be thrown into the deep end in to such a race as the Gr 1 Golden Horse Sprint.

However, this horse is progressing into a useful sprinter and is especially effective over 1000m. He has superb gatespeed as well as excellent natural pace and he is then able to produce a kick at the end too.

Knowing his style of racing, his supporters were not overly concerned by his unfavourabe draw of one today (Thursday) on the Turffontein Standside 1000m.

He duly overcame the draw with his gatespeed and early pace.

Richard Fourie just had to sit on him as the horse drifted to the favourable outside going and gained a winning lead.

Fourie got lower in the saddle at the 250m mark and that was enough for the horse to kick on and beat the bottom weight Super Awesome by 1,25 lengths with the other three beaten 5,25 lengths and more.

Dreamland, running off a 97, had thus claimed his fourth win in succession and doesn’t look likely to stop there.

The first of those wins was over 1160m so he should be able to stay 1200m, which will give him some options next season, if not this season.

Today’s win saw Dreamland converting a quick double for prolific owner Laurence Wernars.

In the previous race, a Graduation Plate over 1400m, the Sean Tarry-trained three-year-old gelding The Africa House was well treated at the weights and, finally, this useful long-strider by What A Winter scored his second career win, nearly 16 months after winning on debut over 1000m.

In other news from today’s racing S’Manga Khumalo showed he is fine after his worrying spill at Hollywoodbets Greyville on Saturday when a horse broke down.

He rode a fine race on the Wylie Hall gelding The Brief to win a 2000m event by 3,25 lengths.

The Robbie Sage-trained The Brief is owned by Khumalo’s agent Monty Mariemuthoo’s syndicate, Monty Racing.

Gaynor Rupert-homebred Gets The Most Favoured Draw In Epsom Derby

God’s Window pictured winning as a two-year-old (Picture: Sky Racing)

The Gaynor Rupert homebred Dubawi colt God’s Window, trained by John and Thady Gosden, is a best-priced 68/1 shot for the iconic Epsom Derby on Saturday. He got the draw considered the best to have i.e. draw ten, which is one positive for the colt, who still has to prove he gets the trip.

The below article was written by Matt Rennie of the Racing Post

City of Troy Draws Stall 1 for Epsom Derby

Stablemate Los Angeles challenges in several betting firms.

City of Troy is clinging on to favoritism in the Derby (G1) despite his unfavorable draw in stall 1, but Aidan O’Brien is unconcerned ahead of his bid for classic glory at Epsom.

Just like fellow Ballydoyle star Auguste Rodin a year ago, the son of Justify bids to rebuild his career with victory June 1, having flopped when ninth in the Two Thousand Guineas (G1) earlier this month. However, he will have to overcome the inside gate to do so, with only two Derby winners coming from that starting position since 1972.

Adayar was the last to emerge victorious from stall 1 three years ago under a fine Adam Kirby ride. Oath also defied the lowest draw in 1999.

After the draw was revealed, bet365 made Los Angeles the 7-2 joint favorite with his stablemate, but he will also break low from stall 4, which was last successful in the Derby when the great Sea The Stars won 15 years ago.

City of Troy remains the clear favorite with most firms despite not getting the rub of the green at the draw ceremony, which was made in Epsom town center the morning of May 30.

Unibet is the only firm to break ranks and has made City of Troy a standout 9-2, with Los Angeles their market leader at 7-2.

O’Brien said: “We haven’t read too much into it yet but look, the draw is the draw for everyone really.”

Coral spokesman David Stevens said: “The lowest draw is generally regarded as a negative, suggesting City of Troy’s task is now even harder. He’s still clinging on to favoritism, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if Los Angeles put that under further threat come race time.”

Nine of the last 10 Derby winners have been drawn in the higher half, with the exception being Adayar, and six of those have come from a double-figure number.

No winner has emerged from stall 11, but Godolphin’s Ancient Wisdom , who has been strongly backed during the week, is out to defy that stat and is a general 4-1.

Dancing Gemini was also drawn high in stall 15 and his trainer Roger Teal believes that can only be a positive for his French Two Thousand Guineas (G1) runner-up.

Teal said: “I think we would rather be higher than low, so I’m not devastated by the draw. Everyone knows stall 10 is the favorite draw and we’re not too far away.”

Outsider God’s Window has been drawn in 10 this year, while impressive Lingfield Derby Trial Stakes winner Ambiente Friendly must overcome stall 6, just as North Light did 20 years ago.

Other fancied hopes Macduff and Bellum Justum have been drawn in stalls 8 and 12, respectively, with a final field of 16 declared Thursday.

Oisin Murphy, who rides Bellum Justum, said: “I’m fond of the horse and let’s see what he can do, but I’m happy with his draw and I’m not worried.”

Strydom, Fourie, Lerena, Tarry Doubles

Piere Strydom had two wins and a second from his four rides at Turffontein Standside today and is pictured cruising in on the Weichong Marwing-trained Rossore Finale (Ideal World), who scored scored an overdue maiden win in his eighth career start (JC Photos)

All of Piere Strydom, Richard Fourie, Gavin Lerena and Sean Tarry had doubles at Turffontein Standside today.

Strydom is now on 36 wins for the season achieved at a strike rate of 18.09%.

Fourie is on 316 wins at 22.80%

Lerena is on 143 wins at 19.97%.

Tarry is on 75 wins at 12.73%.