Noble Pursuit is tipped to win Race 9 (Picture: cityam.com)
Tim Carroll (At The Races)
Happy Valley for Wednesday’s nine-race card is expected to have soft ground.
This Wednesday sees a competitive nine race card from Happy Valley, which gets underway at 1140am – live on Sky Sports Racing. The feature of the meeting is race 5, the Class 2 Korea Racing Authority Trophy (Handicap), over 5 furlongs, offering prize-money of more than £284,000.
This Wednesday’s meeting will proceed a brilliant Champions Day at Sha Tin next Sunday, which I’m looking forward to covering in plenty of detail for At The Races. I’ve been in Hong Kong for a few days now, and there’s been plenty of rain in that time, and with the forecasts suggesting it will be here all week, I have looked at Wednesday’s card working on the theory the track will be soft underfoot.
Now onto this week’s selections.
WEDNESDAY’S SELECTIONS
Race 1: Class 3 Jeju Handicap (1140am) (5 furlongs)
7 YOUTHFUL SPIRITS defied market expectations running with merit in defeat at just his second local start when fourth in behind Beauty Waves, who he meets on 7lb better terms for a two and-a-half length defeat. He will need to take a step forward to turn the form around, and he does have an unsightly high head carriage, however, he is entitled to improve for the run, and I am factoring in the likely rain effected ground. The selection had two starts in Australia, runner-up on debut in heavy going before dotting up in soft going when winning his maiden.
Dangers:
1 Beauty Waves had a few of these in behind when breaking his local duck over course & trip last time, and although the margin was only half-a-length, he did win a tad cozy in the end, and a 6lb penalty looks fair.
5 Super Fortune hasn’t been over the minimum trip since February last year, but he has gone around in some solid races at this level mostly at Sha Tin, his mark continues to come down, and his last win came from a slightly higher mark on going with yielding in the description.
4 Harmony Fire was runner-up to Beauty Waves last time, who he meets on 5lb better terms, and he should take some catching, most likely from the front, with a similar effort.
Race 2: Class 5 Hallasan Handicap (1210pm) (9 furlongs)
1 SPLENDID STAR was a bit disappointing when unplaced at Sha Tin last time, which was his first spin in this grade since winning over the mile here in November. The selection has won twice at this level this season, the most recent being from just a 1lb lower mark, thus we know this is well within his scope. I don’t want to overstate the likely going and do keep an eye on the forecast as I do write this piece up a couple of days out from race day, but the selection did perform strongly when runner-up at the start of the current campaign, which has been his only spin on rain effected going.
Dangers:
7 Loyal Ambition only win came just over a year ago from a 6lb higher mark, and whilst he may find it difficult to win, he hasn’t been beaten far a few times recently, this is the best draw he’s had for a while, and he drops a further 2lb to a career low mark.
6 Circuit Elite ran his best race of the campaign when picking up the bronze over course & trip last time, he was a thrice winner from higher marks last season, and although it was quite some time ago, he did place when last seen on yielding ground.
9 Diamond Winner is a seventeen-start maiden with limitations, but he drops a further 2lb in the handicap and given he’s been placed four times over this trip from higher marks during the current season, he should be included.
Race 3: Class 5 Yeongcheon Handicap (1240pm) (6 furlongs)
3 BEAU GOSSE is a fourteen-start maiden who still looks a work in progress, but he was beaten less than a length on the dirt last time despite not having the rub of the green and had been placed on turf at his three previous starts. The last time the selection was seen over course & trip was in February when picking up the bronze at a level above this, and he’ll find this a bit more to his liking. Hugh Bowman goes on board for the first time, and whilst we haven’t seen him on anything less than good going, if the track is rain effected/tacky, it could hold the selection in good stead that he has been placed over the mile a couple of times.
Dangers:
9 Viva A La has never won from a mark this high, but he did win easily last time, and did so despite not leading (previous two wins from the front), and a repeat performance would see him very much in the mix, despite s 7lb penalty.
2 Tactical Command was given plenty to do from a high draw when fourth at his most recent start, but he now drops down in grade having won over course & trip when last seen at this level in February, albeit from a 5lb lower mark.
7 Sweet Diamond only career win came from a 12lb higher mark over this trip at Sha Tin nearly two years ago, but he has been placed a couple of times recently despite a run of high draws, but he finally has a favourable gate here.
Race 4: Class 4 Daegu Handicap (110pm) (5 furlongs)
4 GRAND NOVA will be a bit of a swing as he’s a debutant, but he is from a leading yard and Bowman gets the call up. The selection hasn’t been asked too-many questions in his last couple of trials but has moved nicely without winning in behind some highly rated rivals. Like with all debutants, ideally, you’d like to see some positivity in the betting, but he lands in a Class 4 that looks moderate.
Dangers:
1 Ma Comet hasn’t shown a lot in four local starts, but he drops down to this level for the first time and he won his maiden on soft going in Australia.
5 Sergeant Pepper was unplaced on the dirt last time, but he was runner-up when last seen over course & trip in March, with the claim he effectively runs from 10lb lower mark than his last win, and he placed his only start on rain effected going, albeit that was nearly two-years ago.
9 Lean Master was an easy enough winner over course & trip two back and ran better than the bare result last time after a tough trip from a high draw, but he faces a similar challenge here.
Race 5: Class 2 Korea Racing Authority Trophy (Handicap) (140pm) (5 furlongs)
4 SEASONS WIT recent bare figure look average, but they’ve been trying him over six-furlongs recently and given all five career wins (including his maiden success in Australia) have come over the minimum trip, he looks better suited here. The selection was unplaced the last time he went over this trip, but that was a Group 3 that didn’t set up kindly, but he scooted up his only other start over this trip at the start of the season. This is a competitive & open looking contest, and the selection should have all favors from the low draw.
Dangers:
7 Harmony N Blessed recorded his first win since September last year when hacking up over six-furlongs last time, he’ll be moving up in grade, but he’s a multiple winner over this trip, and carries 15lb less at this level despite the 8lb penalty.
9 Humble Star, who was progressing nicely late last year, arrives on a course & trip three timer & will be moving up in grade under a 7lb penalty but carries 16lb less at this level, however he makes his return from a layoff after a setback, and a market watch is advised.
2 Duke Wai is veteran 8yo that does most of his racing at Sha Tin, and he is better suited to six-furlongs, but this will be just the second time in over two-years he’s gone around at this level having mostly contested pattern-company, & he’ll enjoy have a solid gallop to aim at.
Race 6: Class 4 Incheon Handicap (210pm) (1 mile)
10 CANT GO WRONG was placed at Group 2 level in Australia earlier in his career, and whilst it’s doubtful he’ll ever get back to those heights, he has shown some improvement recently. The Frankie Lor 5yo broke his local duck at a level below this over course & trip last month when winning by a margin, then ran with plenty of merit when picking up the bronze at this level at Sha Tin last time, and although held by the first two that day, that was a stronger race than this. The one concern is there doesn’t appear to be much of a gallop on offer, thus from the low draw, Alexis Badel may elect to ride him a tad closer than usual.
Dangers:
4 Pegasus General is probably seen to better effect over slightly further, but he has been placed over this trip from up to a 12lb higher mark under a senior rider, and with a 5lb claimer on top and the draw in 1, it’s impossible not to include him here.
3 Viva Hunter will need to be taken on trust as he hasn’t won for over a year, however he’s only recently dropped into this grade, three of his four local wins have come when he has pushed forward, and given the lack of pace on paper, they may revert back to those tactics here.
2 Snowalot goes up 5lb having recorded his first win of the season last time and this looks a moderate affair, however he does tend to save his best for when he can close late off a solid gallop, and the lack of pace has to be a concern.
Race 7: Class 4 Busan Handicap (245pm) (6 furlongs)
7 GLORY CLOUD is a four-start maiden that has met with support at his last two starts, having had no luck two back in a run best forgotten before being snagged back to last from the outside draw and rattling late to grab the bronze over course & trip without threatening the winner last time when running a career best. The Caspar Fownes 4yo once again draws toward the outside, so he may need some luck as the tactics are likely to be similar too last time, but there’s a solid gallop on offer, and there should be further improvement forth coming.
Dangers:
2 Our Lucky Story arrives having won over course & trip last time and although he goes up 5lb for that, he has won from a higher mark than this in the past, and he’s drawn to have all the favours.
12 Harmony N Home hasn’t won for a very long time, but he has been runner-up two of his last three having tumbled down the handicap, and he should be charging late from the back under his light weight.
6 Sight Supreme is a debutant by a sire that does well in Hong Kong and as a recent trial winner with Purton booked, a market watch is strongly advised.
Race 8: Class 4 Busan Handicap (315pm) (6 furlongs)
4 HIGH PERCENTAGE met with solid support when breaking his duck over course & trip when last seen late last month, which was his first run back after a short layoff. The selection goes up 7lb for that, but it’s hard to argue given he put the race to bed very quickly once Purton pushed the button, winning by over two-lengths with something in the tank. Adding further merit to the win, the second and third, who were both well held, have subsequently come out and won at their next start. He did have a soft run on the leaders tails last time, but from a very similar draw, the race should pan out in similar style.
Dangers:
1 Golden Long is a low mileage 3yo that won over course & trip on debut in December, and although unplaced his last two, he drops back down in grade having been runner-up over course & trip from this very mark when last seen at this level.
2 Righteous Arion has been running well enough in defeat at a level above this recently and he’ll enjoy dropping down in grade having won over course & trip from just 1lb lower when last seen at this level in November.
11 Colonel is a well exposed 7yo that doesn’t do a lot of winning, but he does like to go from the front, thus the low draw looks perfect, and he did win from a similar mark last season.
Race 9: Class 3 Seoul Handicap (350pm) (9 furlongs)
3 NOBLE PURSUIT is a low mileage 4yo that is a thrice winner from eight starts and put a poor performance over ten-furlongs at Sha Tin last month well & truly behind him with a very good effort over the mile here last time when rattling late to finish fourth, beaten less than a length despite covering plenty of extra ground around the home turn when coming widest of all. He steps back up to nine-furlongs here, having won in good style his only try over this trip in February, and he should be hard to hold out if he gets the breaks when needed from the low draw in what looks an easier assignment than last time.
Dangers:
9 Flamingo Trillion has only been over this trip on one occasion when placed behind the selection in February and is now on 10lb better terms for a one-and-a-half length defeat.
1 Gallant Waking won over the mile here in January, and although turned over in three subsequent outings over the same trip, he continues to close out his races, thus the step up to nine-furlongs for the first time looks helpful.
2 Berlin Tango hasn’t won for a while, although his last success (October 2022) came from a 14lb higher mark, and he’s only recently dropped down to this level, and is one to consider for any exotics.
WEDNESDAY’S PLACEPOT
Today’s Tote Place Pot will be races 4 through to 9. All up we will be playing 81 combinations (3x3x3x3x1x1), which will cost £8.10 for a 10p stake and so on. Good luck.
LEG 1- 1 MA COMET 4 GRAND NOVA 5 SERGEANT PEPPER
LEG 2- 4 SEASONS WIT 7 HARMONY N BLESSED 9 HUMBLE STAR
LEG 3- 3 VIVA HUNTER 4 PEGASUS GENERAL 10 CAN’T GO WRONG
LEG 3- 2 OUR LUCKY GLORY 7 GLORY CLOUD 12 HARMONY N HOME
LEG 5- 4 HIGH PERCENTAGE
LEG 6- 3 NOBLE PURSUIT
TIM’S BEST BETS
12.10pm HAPPY VALLEY
SPLENDID STAR (NB2)
3.15pm HAPPY VALLEY
HIGH PERCENTAGE (NAP)
3.50pm HAPPY VALLEY
NOBLE PURSUIT (NB)
